danfrodo

Thanks much for this Sid_burn. Well done. I do love the AARs.

So you are saying don't set waypoints farther than what you can see? this is to avoid stumbing into bad guys? and just keep doing this from sighted point to sighted point? Interesting.

Are these idiots really going to try to do an offensive that has basically no sustainable supply lines??? Even w the bridges working it's longer than what they had in Donbas and they couldn't make that work. This is lovely. Yes, please push everything to the right bank. UKR has all the advantages in this region. Including partisans! UKR on nice interior lines. RU on stretched, incredibly vulnerable lines. So Putin is basically giving up on getting more of Donbas in crazy attempt to hold onto Kherson? Classic dictator, thinking his will makes reality. What was that yoda meme? -- "Belief does not reality make." If this is real, maybe Putin thinks he can push the lines back to get the bridges out of HIMARS range??? madness. But never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

That would be an incredibly stupid escalation by Putin. He is arming his friends, the Donetz separatists, and we can arm our friends. If US agents blew up an arms depot in Russia, it's an act of war/terrorism. Same thing if Russian agents do it in NATO countries. But stupidity seems to be the game plan for Putin. For example, killing a bunch of POWs in some ridiculous false flag operation?? That is stupid beyond belief. Gain: make some folks believe UKR missiles are indiscriminate, which is a trivial gain. Loss: Another mass murder episode that will haunt Russia and make it that much harder to get out of this disaster. Unbelievable. Anyone w a brain would stage potemkin-village POW camp video releases w lovely facilities and great food and happy, relieved UKR prisoners (RU soldiers acting, of course). This propaganda thing aint rocket science.

what was once a trickle is now a flood. RU is getting more & more outgunned operationally.

Last time I checked the confederates and the yankees all spoke english, yet US civil war. I am w steve on this. A charismatic leader who emerges in siberia due to a power vacuum saying "we could have all the oil money for ourselves!" is my personal dream.

you still have fingernails? I chewed mine off a while ago. I do hope for the Melitopol armored spearhead, though I know it's probably just wishful thinking. Would be an interesting CM campaign. I want hostomel as the first battle in the CM version of this war -- I can't wait to wipe the grins off their smug VDV faces.

Kosovo & Taiwan (and Ukraine) are amazing examples of the stupidity of nationalist warmongering. They are religious zealots, with no attachment to anything rational, wanting wars that have nearly zero upside and monstrous downside. It's amazing, yet here we are.

Intelligent political actors always find the obviously losing side and jump in with it. It's the obvious way to go, no?

I watched Denys Davydov video yesterday and he said RU is actually touting it's going on the offensive out of the Kherson bridgehead, which is why they kept pouring resources into it, until they suddenly couldn't. So my theory was that Putin figured he'd use civilians as hostages to try to hold on to the right bank & Kherson. But maybe he's actually so delusional he really thinks he could stage an offensive out there? That would be the best thing possible, for RU forces to leave their dugouts and try to advance. Currently I am just so pleased that he put so much more into the kessel. And we see pictures today of a crane on the bridge, repairs under way. I suppose UKR is going to let them get the repairs going then hit the spot again, which would be quite demoralizing. That crane would make a nice obstacle also.

I guess the eagle is counting on the goat to beat himself to death? But does the eagle know that means him too? I am betting on the goat's bones being a lot stronger than the eagle's. I could just picture Putin inside the eagle's head - Ha! Going perfectly according to plan! I have bruised the goat's ribs at only the cost of my own broken ribs and broken wings! Start planning the victory parade! I'll arrive on foot, by the way." 'course, the goat could just lay down on top of the eagle until the eagle suffocates, so aint neither of them geniuses.

Yes, this is unfortunatelly a possibility. There were some movies and threads with locals from Kherson being very concerned about logistical situation. Putin would not shy away from taking them as virtual hostages and even mass murder if needed- it can be shown in propaganda as effects of "Ukrianian cruel way of war". I don't think his regime cares about external propaganda anymore, only domestic one; and they will swell almost everything or don't care. It may also potentially serve as additional "punishment" element for helping partisans. I think that Putin would pitch this internationally as UKR creating a humanitarian crisis. It's no less ridiculous than the other nonsense he's spouted, like defeats as goodwill gestures. So I predict they will steal all the food from every house & apartment and grocery store, then ask for cease fires & such to bring in food, then steal that food while sneaking ammo across the river. How can RU hope to prevail w/o some sorts of non-conventional methods? Then they will try to hold whatever is within artillery support range of the left bank, along w using air support. Of course, UKR can, as others have stated, say 'NO'.

But how can it really defend that area? I think they can't do it by conventional means, so I suppose the first thing RU will do is to starve the civilians, knowing how Putin operates. Bascially they've got many thousands of civilians as hostages. That's my worry, and also why I think UKR was trying to entice RU to leave. Maybe mass murder is Putin's plan.

My favorite line for humans not properly assessing risk is "obese, sedentary, diabetic, non-seatbelt wearing middle-aged smoker very concerned about health effects of vaccines" (edit: not to get all holier than thou, as I am drinking my 2nd diet coke of the day and god knows that can't be good for me)

deleted, redundant

Yes, very very very much so. UKR needs prisoners because it's more humane, it's less danger to UKR forces, and maybe most of all they need something to trade to get their own kidnapped people back.

1. No phalanx jokes or comments for the above? I am rather disappointed. 2. On Aragorn2002's point, I think he was specifically looking at UKR's choice to chip away at the Kherson-region bridges instead of a more concentrated, sudden attack. In that context, it would seem much better shock value and much less time for the enemy to counter if done swiftly and suddenly. So if UKR didn't do this, my only idea for why is that they are concerned for the thousands of UKR civilians and want to entice the russians to retreat instead of holding hostages and starving civilians. Militarily, I think Aragorn's right on wanting the bridges down quickly and w/o warning. 3. Metaphor Management Committee: While LOTR is the official vehicle for metaphors, Game of Thrones is permitted if done appropiately (like GrigB, above). Those using GOT metaphors must keep in mind the immense emotional damage caused by season 8 and should avoid content that might trigger a trauma response in millions of angry, hurting people.

"HA! Fool, I wanted you to take my queen, which was just a feint so I could take two of your pawns at the low cost of just three of my pawns! HA! Take that!"

Corporate leadership has decided that chess metaphors are no longer appropriate and are not to be used going forward. Everyone please use the approved Lord of the Rings metaphors for this conflict in all future memos. Sincerely, Metaphor Management Committee

roger that, deleted

xxxxxx

Interesting Kherson summary at DailyKos today: LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/7/28/2113086/-Ukraine-update-Taking-out-the-Dnipro-River-bridges-creates-opportunities-that-go-way-beyond-Kherson This fella seems to share my hope that RU pumps more into Kherson, but also mentions something I hadn't given much thought to. Once RU strips the line elsewhere, probably Melitopol front, and puts them in Putin's Pocket, they can't get out. Which means UKR could attack the landbridge front w/o worrying about those stranded RU units hitting them from the west. Also, he mentions estimate of 225 trucks per day needed to fully supply the kessel forces. Gonna be hard to do that w a jerry-rigged ferry and some pontoon bridges that only last a few hours before being shelled. This game is, most definitely, afoot!

Crimea: perhaps we are counting our chickens before they hatch, no? First is Kherson, about which many of us are confident will fall due to lack of supply. Then there's the landbridge, what I call Melitopol front. Plus need to clear RU away from north of Kharkiv. There's a lot to do before crimea, though Putin's fear of losing could be good fun to watch. Maybe he'll do like Hitler and park a huge force there (17th army, I believe), able to do nothing but sit. Anyone read Forczyk's WW2 crimea book? There's a bit where Stalin wants to clear crimea but RU general says something like "why attack them? they are in a prison camp where they have to feed themselves".

Great posts y'all. I only have one thing to add to the discussion about what will happen w RU should Putin fall. I think the military officer corps doesn't want this war and would love to get out and get back to making money via corruption. But for corruption one needs a big military budget to steal. So the military will come in on whoever will end the war and promise them big budgets. That counts out the ultranats, who will fight this hopeless war to the last dead schmuck.

well, that answers the question of who is hurting worst from Putin cutting energy exports to europe. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. He's a hostage taker who puts a grenade instead of a pistol to the victim's head. Stupid, psycopathic, narcicissitic imbecile.