danfrodo

While there was discussion of history repeating as far as coups, which we don't know it will repeat, there is one history thing that is definitely repeating: Dictator is told region is lost, must pull forces out before cut off. Dictator lectures generals on the incredible value of the region and need for its resources or political meaning. So instead of just losing the region, the dictator loses region and his forces, not understanding that his need to hold it has nothing to do w his ability to hold it. I guess that's why we call him Putler.

I think the discussion from the start has been about "conditions being consistent w regime change, historically" and "conditions being consistent w military collapse at sector or front levels, historically". And those conditions very very certainly exist relative to past experience. But each situation is different and so those conditions might not quite be enough due to other factors.

Hey GrigB, what's a mobik?

another good summary at DailyKos LIBERAL SITE ENTER AT YOUR OWN PERIL https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/31/2119873/-Ukraine-Update-Tens-of-thousands-of-Russians-cut-off-in-Kherson-their-artillery-dwindling I was quite surprised at all the packaging for just one 122mm shell. Easy to see how it would take a huge number of truckloads to keep even those smaller tubes firing.

My rough estimate is that Kherson front is line ~150km long (does that sound right )? So we estimate that RU has 20,000 or so troops in the region, meaning max of 133 soldiers per km. The terrain is mostly open, so RU needs to cover most of that terrain, and to do it depth means that each line has something less than 133. Including rear area or artillery personnel, say it's 1/2 of the total, that would be ~70 bayonets per km. Divide into 3 lines of defense, that's ~25 per km of line. I suppose RU lines are basically outposts with bigger concentrations along easy lines of access like roads. So local infiltration, bypassing & encircling seem like a viable tactic. Knocking out one outpost might open up a hole several hundred meters across. RU might have mobile reserves to reinforce any local breakthroughs, but w UKR attacking on a number of widely dispersed axes, with each axis having multiple threads those reserves would hopefully be too little too late. This is what I hope is happening. The difficulty will be based on how well did RU position it's outposts & strongpoints? how much redundancy?

That is a big bunch of trouble, even if poorly trained. Hopefully Putin will put them somewhere stupid. Or will send them on an offensive against well prepared UKR defenses that smashes them at no cost. But if these units are heading west, what are they gonna do? They can't cross the river to Kherson. The only thing they can do, offensively, would be to threaten Zaporizhe.

The plot thickens. And hopefully the game is afoot, for real this time. A significant increase in partisan activity would be expected if this is an operation that is designed to take all of Kherson. Activating them for only some small pushes would leave most of RU forces available to hunt partisans, while for a bigger offensive those forces would be busy dealing w the breakthroughs. It looks like UKR might have finally hit the ferries. RU liked to show videos of ferries back w civilian vehicles, which may be why UKR has held off for so long. RU nats sound like any other belief-driven knuckleheads. They have a religion and their own identity built around russian superiority and destiny. Whenever these kinds of folks are forced to make a choice between reality and belief, they will always choose belief, bending (or ignoring) 'reality' however is required to keep their identity intact.

Mines, F I hate mines. Except when RU tanks try to 'rush' them for some crazy reason. If UKR can advance w sufficient speed they can hopefully only face the minefields in the initial defense lines. Hopefully RU won't have the time (or maybe supplies?) to keep putting new minefields in front of multiple fast moving advances.

So RU TV viewers are showing battle over some rubble in Pisky and it would be presented as a great victory. Meanwhile, UKR today is taking a large number of villages and making real gains. Gonna be quite a shock to RU folks if Kherson falls when they think they've been doing all the 'winning'.

I think just throw chunks of broken concrete. W RU plastic helmets, it would be second only to grenades at that range.

absolutely terrifying

When it comes to overthrowing Putin, one of the things I have trouble getting my head around is exactly how this would be done. He seems to have big cadre(s) of very loyal guards. What does an overthrow actually look like? Does someone bribe the guards -- that's a dangerous conversation. How would one actually get at Putin? I was hoping he'd be hit while traveling to/from Turkey a couple months ago, but no luck.

So far it seems folks here are concluding that UKR is doing a series of probes to stress-test RU defenses. And as was stated earlier, they probably would have forces available to exploit if any of the probed sectors collapse.

Can't wait for this view to be in CMBS, Kherson campaign. Sometime in 2023 I hope. Can switch out the YPRs for BMPs if necessary.

What will RU do? Well, we've already seen Putin pump more & more resources into a very vulnerable LOC situation, when it would have been militarily better to just leave. And if he thinks there's trouble there I suppose he'll throw more stuff in that direction, hopefully. which takes pressure off Donbass. I am hoping for lots of knee-jerk RU command reactions. Like suddenly shift the new 'corps' to the west -- where it can't do anything useful. I want RU armored vehicles driving lots of miles, breaking down and falling out. Messed up LOCs, confusion in general as commanders try to implement Putin's panicky orders.

Yes, that totally makes sense. Reward the aggressor. I am sure Putin will no longer want to take more territory if we do that. What planet does this idiot live on? If we stop supporting Ukraine and it ends in stalemate, then Putin will simply build up his forces and in a couple years again attack long-abandoned and weakened Ukraine. Who is this imbecile? Why on earth would Putin leave Kherson and the landbridge if not forced out? It's absurd. They tried negotiations, Putin refuses to budge and doesn't negotiate in good faith. All Putin wants to do is to convince imbeciles in the west that it's Ukraine's fault for the continuing war -- and at least for some of the imbeciles, it's working. And yes, it's factually true that it's Ukraine's fault that the war continues. In the same way that a rape target fighting back is making the world more violent.

well, what can I say. I'm just another stupid american thinking everything if about stupid america . You'd be shocked at how every dang thing in the world we somehow make all about us, at least in the media. If I had just looked more closely I would've seen that any patton would have a fancier costume. So how much stock are knowledgeable folks putting into the stories about RU soldiers not being properly paid? As we talk about mutinies & such, that is often a huge driver. Wouldn't it be amusing if Putin fell because he couldn't pay? Then the oil/gas deal would in hindsight have been a strategic win, where Putin basically wrecked himself. He thinks the west is dependent on him, but maybe his gun ends up backfiring. That was the thought, that no one was stupid enough to shoot themselves, economically. That doesn't get folks who believed Putin would be restrained off the hook (me included), it just makes those folks lucky. But only in hindsight. Which makes one wonder just how stupid China wants to be? I think their leadership is smarter than Putin, but ya never know.

Here's post w some thoughts about the new 3rd Corps, nothing groundbreaking, but makes point that this corps is not very good. Though oddly enough, seems to have been given good gear. Unless those videos were just for propaganda purpose -- "look at the great new gear they have" where maybe they had a few BMP3, T90, etc, just for the videos and the real gear is old. LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/8/28/2119266/-Ukraine-Update-Russia-fields-its-new-volunteer-battalion-and-it-s-it-s-just-weird And Huba has a new picture . Which appears to be a hamster auditioning for a movie role as Patton?

I think I agree with this but would say it differently. In times of chaos and upheaval, it is often the most ruthless that succeed, at least in the short term. Folks that balk at murdering innocents (like families of enemies) are less effective at gaining control. When you say "respect or support" of population I would say "instill fear and terror" in the population.

On a happier note, these folks in my neighborhood have been showing support for Ukraine for a while. They planted most of front yard w sunflowers, which are now ~10 feet tall. It's been great that most every kind of american is supportive of Ukraine. While there's a few snakes in the US senate and house, the votes have ~+95% in favor for months.

so first they had cardboard for reactive armor, now cheap plastic instead of kevlar? wow, corruption at its finest.

Let's see if I can summarize what I came away with today from this thread: 1. UltraDave, thanks for your expert insights into the nuke plant 2. Today we saw video of UKR strikes on Antonovsky bridge -- anyone seen any video of the damage to bridge or pontoon bridge? And first hand reports? 3. Hungary hiring RU to make nuke reactor -- sure, that's insane, but not if you got $millions in bribes. Then it's just good business decision. 4. Denys Davydov's video today seemed to indicate that Pisky is soon to fall. Can't wait to hear RU nats act like they just took that really mattered. I wonder what the cost was to RU side for that little town, now rubble. How many men, vehicles, shells, etc. I have a feeling they overpaid. 5. Someone killed Dugin's daughter and aint no one knows who, 'cept the perpetrators, it seems 6. NRA took RU money? well, I'll be danged. Did not know that though not surprised. 7. no real movement on the front. maybe 6-10 weeks of dry weather? Does that sound correct? Is UKR gonna go for Kherson territory before the mud comes? When the leaves fall both sides lose concealment, so not sure who that would favor. Probably some other stuff, but that's my takeaway.

5 tanks??? Plus whatever is burning at top of frame? that's a good day in that sector for sure!

Point taken, Holien. Thanks for correcting me on this. I neglectfully assumed things about him that I did not actually know.

I can't wait to see what's on the forum here Thursday AM my time And I'll be praying that Steve is right about LPR/DPR unrest and that things escalate. Would be some heavy irony if those locals who cheered RU intervention end up cheering UKR intervention. I get some folks falling for that in 2014, but by now I should think they figured out they are all just farm animals to Putin, to be driven or eaten as Putin sees fit.