Kinophile
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Posts posted by Kinophile
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Is this the first major barrage campaign since the fall of Kherson?
I don't recall anything similar in scale so far yet....
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Man, I have so many questions re Wagner/Prigozhin within the Russian internal power structure.
From ISW today:
QuoteThe Russian State Duma tried—and failed—to clarify the purpose and operations of the territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast on December 9. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Head Andrey Kartapolov stated that these battalions are not formally part of the Russian Armed Forces, and thus will not receive supplies or armaments from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).[72] Kartapolov stated that these battalions are composed of civilians that will follow objectives “related to the Russian MoD.” Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin previously indirectly implied that Wagner forces will train Belgorod Oblast's “people’s militia” in the oblast “to defend the borders of the oblast.”[73] The battalions’ independent status from the Russian MoD and Prigozhin’s involvement with Belgorod Oblast officials may indicate the battalions’ affiliation with the Wagner Group.[74] Prigozhin, however, denied Wagner’s involvement in training the Belgorod Oblast militia, noting only the presence of some Wagner former servicemen in the area.[75]
So,
A. This, "Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin previously indirectly implied that Wagner forces will train Belgorod Oblast's “people’s militia” in the oblast “to defend the borders of the oblast.” means they will become a future reserve of the WG.
B. This, "The battalions’ independent status from the Russian MoD and Prigozhin’s involvement with Belgorod Oblast officials may indicate the battalions’ affiliation with the Wagner Group" is not a "may", the WG are setting up , funding and training this militia.
C. This, "Prigozhin, however, denied Wagner’s involvement in training the Belgorod Oblast militia", is obviously an irrelevant lie because -
D. this "the presence of some Wagner former servicemen in the area" - there are numerous articles and anecdotes that no one "leaves" the WG. You could get wounded and discharged, but you never actually leave. It's a mafia, a criminal gang with a tank park; you're member for life, no term limits. "former servicemen" means active/latent agents of the WG. Once you're in you never leave.
Questions...
- Why the hell is there a major military formation within Russia that is not beholden to Putin personally, directly?
- Why does that formation have access to divisional level assets and theater level strike aircraft?
- Why does that formation have its own, separate & independent R&D facility?
- Why is it allowed to train its own militia and co-opt the local government within a critical province
Russia is an autocracy that has a fully-fledged military, extensive and diverse internal security formations and complete control of the media. The WG seems to be setting up just like the Iranian IRGC - a separate military force with its own economic, political, military & industrial base. The KGB did build up to something similar but more of a politico-military aspect, not so much the economic side. Maybe if they had, they'd have come out of the fall as much more overtly coherent organisation.
Is Prig building a literal power base for after Putin? Putin lets him construct his internal power base, with the agreement that Prig will protect Pootler after he steps aside? Prig is far ahead of anyone else except Kadyrov, who has already achieved his own fiefdom.
If Ukraine actively breaks the WG, as a functioning military force (full-on HIMARSes its leadership structures, bombs its internal facilities, turns its elites on each other with betrayals/assassinations, etc) then how does that affect Russian internal power politics? How does that affect Pootlers execution of the war, if his "crack" formation is wasted? Is he safe with the MoD? Is the WG a blocking force on the MoD writ large? That is, the MoD cant leave Ukraine if the WG is locked in battle?
I've been thinking about this a lot, that the end state of the war is not dependent on battlefield success, but a combination of specific victories against specific Russian formations/power structures.
UKR can kill hundreds of thousands of Russians but it simply doesn't matter, because Pootler and his gang simply dont care about Russians. He/They can lie and say anything, crush anyone, with utter impunity, so large numbers of dead Russians is irrelevant. What is relevant is who comes after Putin. I wonder if that's the real game already being played out right now in Russia, and how will it be determined by results in Ukraine.
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Poo-tler is a real thing, is my bet.
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4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Moreover, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have the ability to effectively track and HIT the key points and nodes of the enemy supply system along the Sea of Azov (today's successful strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Berdyansk base of the Russian Federation is an example of this).
This.
Now that UKR has a proven missile/drone capability to decently accurately hit a target 1000km away, well the next video we see of the Kerch video doing a violent dance-with-no-pants will be pretty unambiguous in its source and definitive in its end result.
No matter what was done before, the Kerch's days are numbered.
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And a post too far, my friend
Ref Steve's further up....
(don't get me wrong - epidemiological, societal and environmental impacts on human development are absolutely my cuppa tae!)
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FTW again
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https://newlinesmag.com/first-person/what-ukraine-means-for-lithuanians-haunted-by-soviet-past/
This is why Lithuania supports Ukraine, its why Ukraine fights, they know full well what awaits them as an entire society if they let the Ivan win.
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25 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
Hey, I'm not suggesting a ground attack on Belarus, but only a retaliatory strike on the air base.
Ah k, gotcha
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10 minutes ago, Zeleban said:
But after all, Russia will also have to divide its forces and logistics, and this will certainly affect its offensive capabilities in the east. I have already said above that significant Ukrainian forces are already on the border with Belarus, they cannot take part in the battles in the east. So would it not be wiser to respond to the blows of the Russians? As practice shows, Russians understand the language of violence much better than any other existing
I dunno, Im not convinced that Ukraine has the bandwidth yet to activate another front, into actual ground combat I mean.
Even a drone campaign would need to be careful, strictly targeted and working towards some later end state. But drones sent against Belarus are drones not sent against Russian forces in the East. That's for Z&Z to calculate.
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14 minutes ago, Kraft said:
Dragging another country into this (even if it is already hybrid involved, but thats details) would fuel this thinking of people who wince when Putin talks about red lines, Nukes for the 100th time.
Exactly.
The vast, vast majority of Western populace know if this war from one liner headlines.
They read RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE and say oh noes, those mean Ivans. Oh well. Then they read UKRAINE ****S UP RUSSIA and they go Oh yay, plucky Ukies! Good on them, I'll stick a UKR flag on my car. Here's some spare change. Yay me. Then they read UKRAINE HITS RUSSIAN STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AIRBASE and they say Wait up, Nuclear? Oh kayyy, ummmm.. Now, if we add in UKRAINE HITS BELSRUSSIAN CITY (totally misrepresented) they say HOLD ON, WHO IS ATTACKING WHOM? I'm confused!
Maddening.
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@Zeleban I don't think he's say Ukraine has no right, of course it does.
Belarus stages Russian troops, trains, arms and feeds them, sends its ammo to kill Ukrainians in the Donbass and let's RUS war planes bomb from its airbases. We all know this and I'm pretty sure Lukashenko is very much on Zaluzhny's To-Do List, the one titled "Asshats To Squish".
He's saying, from a military-political POV that expanding the active fighting to another front, one thats geographically directly opposite to the main effort, would have several very major implications:
- Splitting the logistics effort
- Which implies diluting the Eastern front supply
- Removing a valuable quiet prep/rest/refit/training area for UKR troops
- Confuse world media attention from the simple clear narrative of Ukraines defensive war against Horrible Orcs to (offensive) War against Horrible Orcs...and Belarussians? Who have nominally not invaded?
I personally do think bombing BRUS airbases is perfectly legit and makes Lukashenko vulnerable.
If anything, hitting the BRUS fuel supply infrastructure, causing nationwide civilian supply issues, would probably have a very strong negative impact on his support. This would require more RUS troops, a useful trade for cheap & easily run drone campaign.
The trick is **** with Lukashenko without over-investing men/supply or activating the border into actual combat.
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19 minutes ago, MikeyD said:
Germany long ago eschewed a 'guns and butter' government spending policy in favor of a 'butter and more butter' policy. I recall circa 2015 it was said the Donbas 'rebels' had a larger active tank force than the Bundeswehr did. I didn't really expect Germany to abruptly reverse course and become Europe's 'arsenal for democracy', especially with a global recession looming.
About Russian sanctions, winter and conscription. We've seen, on a smaller scale, how badly things can snowball in a crisis. Remember the great toilet paper shortage of 2020? When the population starts to panic keeping store shelves stocked becomes an impossible task, even in the best of conditions. Also, lets recall the Covid distribution bottleneck. When truckers disappear goods stop getting distributed. Now replace the word 'Covid' with the word 'conscription' and imagine the problems Russia has created for itself.
Well put
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37 minutes ago, IanL said:
Earlier today someone used the phrase "civilian Girkin" and it reminded me I wanted to ask does anyone know the status of @Grigb? We haven't heard from him in a long time. I don't think I missed any earlier posts about him. Anyone have an idea?
His profile pages says he last posted Oct 10th and last visited Nov 6th.
Bump.
Anyone?
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30 minutes ago, womble said:
Cost-wise, I'm pretty sure that much steel is more expensive than the concrete, though maybe not much more expensive than the rebar needed to do the task properly.
Yes, good steel is.
But Komrad Col. General Korruptovich is more interested in his mate Ivan's "specially sourced" steel. That Ivan happens to own a trash dump/breakers yard is just a happy coincidence.
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9 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
A bit difficult to see on the photo because of the lighting. Could just be a crack that splits off a very smooth piece.
But I guess it could also be some kind of internal metal pyramid with a concrete covering. I just think it would take way longer to produce large numbers of those. But they might be less heavy and easier to transport.
See my post above about why that might be...beneficial...
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3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
About the dragon teeth, I think it's just that if the concrete is not properly mixed, it hardens with cracks going through it, and if rainwater enters those cracks, then the block cracks when the water freezes and expands.
Especially if it goes above freezing in the daytime and then below during the nights, you get multiple cycles of expansion and cracking.
The reason for not mixing the concrete is probably just that the Russians are in a big rush to produce as many of them as possible, and stirring the concrete mix takes time.
I'd expect the same to happen with a lot of those concrete pillboxes they are churning out.
Yes but look at Oryx's photo - there's visibly a base object that has a "skin" of concrete, no?
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29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Rotterdam 1940.
Probably the greatest example, and somewhat the only major one. In many ways, it was the right call. The war was already lost, for Holland.
29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:Madrid underground terrorist bombing 2004
Sorta - there was already a very significant portion of the populace against the Iraq War and the Bush Admin in principle. The bombings horrified and shocked many Spanish but it was more within the context of confirmation of their fears against foreign adventures. If the Spanish were more unified in their support of the war then probably less effect.
29 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:Hiroshima & Nagasaki 1945
Sorta, again, I believe? From what I've read the Japanese high command was inhumanly disconnected to the suffering of their people. Any reading of their plans for homeland defense against Allied invasion immediately implies human suffering of their own people ona truly gigantic, almost civilizational scale. IMSMR, there was even talk amongst the more extreme Generals that even if just 10% (I think) survived that the Japanese nation could continue on in the mountains and hills and that would count as a win.
Theres plenty of discussion that even though the bombs stunned the Japanese leadership, it wasnt from a human, moralistic aspect (the loss of life) but from a militaristic POV - that they had no counter to the weapon, that they themselves' did not have it, that battlefield defeat on the home islands was now far more likely. They would lose the battle and suffer dishonour as a nation was more horrifying than the loss of life.
Even then, they were nonetheless still pulling the last of the Manchurian divisions home for defense - but the Soviet attack finally cut that off and worse, implied a communist invasion/takeover of the home islands. And Communism loomed larger in the hidebound Japnese elite's fears than an American superweapon. Only then did Hirohito throw in the towel.
Or so my understanding goes.
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37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
I agree. A foam filler is possible, but that probably involves injection molding and that's not cheap. I don't think simple expanded foam would hold up to transport, not to mention deployment. So they are probably concrete, but true to Russia's standard of quality control.
Steve
That looks like concrete plaster on a steel pyramidal box?
Maybe we should bear down on the endemic corruption aspect?
If we look at these through the eyes of an enterprising supply Col. General Korruptovich, well then:
- Don't pour full, proper re-barred concrete pyramids. They're heavy and awkward. Need numbers of Private Konskriptoviches. = costly. Bad, very bad.
- Instead use these...box things...with concrete cast over them - looks just like dragons teeth but lighter.
- Scale it up to thousands of them and transporting them now uses a lot less fuel than the heavier, fully concrete ones = savings (yay good)
- You can stack more on a truck, use less trucks and get them to the site quicker = savings (e.g if you charge for 10 trucks but use 6)
- You can also place them quicker, getting the job "done" with your reduced workforce and crucially photographed sooner. = kudos up the chain, make the bosses look good = CYA in advance
- Also use unpaid Mobiks so again = more savings
So if I wanted to make a tidy sum and I was in charge of making, transporting and placing these...things...then even just off my civvy head there are lots of opportunities to make money and superficially, on paper and in photographs, achieve the desired end result - long lines of "dragon teeth" snaking across the landscape. Everyone's happy, paid off, looks good, state media giving great play to your work, and because there's a war on, further contracts are pretty much a given.
Nice.
Oh and look, there's talk of doing this on the entire UKR/RUS border...time to do some measurements on ye fiendish Kapitalist google maps...
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1 minute ago, Astrophel said:
Not a war for resources?
This is an interesting read. It is imo not a coincidence that the 2014 invasion took place as Ukraine was about to start exploiting their considerable oil and gas resources
Ukraine is also thought to have the largest deposits in Europe of minerals needed for batteries and other such components of the climate neutral economy - coincidentally in the direction where Wagner is throwing the conscripts.
Nah I suspect you're reading too much into the tea leaves, esp. Re Wagner/bakhmut.
Opportunistic political land grab, motivated by cultural chauvinism and an unbridled ego seems more fitting.
If resources were the aim then by any measure Russian oligarchy would have economically raped the Donbass, hot cease fire or no. But they didn't, which implies that it was viewed as Putin's playground, his project and not for sharing.
Putin has no interest in long term investment or economic exploitation of the Donbass - we know this because he has done othing to foster it. He views it as both a military and cultural front line, the bleeding edge of Ruski Mir, not a plunderable national economic asset.
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22 minutes ago, billbindc said:
Or pretty much every significant character in Iain M. Banks.
Oh for the win, for sure.
Use of Weapons. The Player of Games. Against A Dark Background. Excession. Any of those Characters and worlds are orders of magnitude more thought out and developed than 3BP and its paper thin, exposition spouting, laughably gender-biased nitwit-
I should stop.
I stop.
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Angry ZSU. Phone guy pans off immediately when the soldier taking photos raises his gun (butt first) and threatens a POW.
Angry, energized, post-combat soldiers. Still, disciplined and obeying the rules.
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The Engels strike supposedly used Tu-141 recon drones repurposed and armed.
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1599815384865337345?t=5Q9EIKOJcruhSfshc6zGlg&s=19
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Ref Russian official census lies about ethnicity :
Long and worth the read for westerners.