Kinophile

Russia doesnt have to be hit by Nukes to actually use nukes. Itlll use nukes in conventional situations, when hit by conventional munitions. Non-nuclear missile attacks on Moscow are absolutely within that wheelhouse. So my point is not that the West would strike with Nukes, but that any strike that physically threatens the Rus government will be responded to with nukes. Its literally stated right there in their published doctrine. If Ukraine fires missiles or uses suicide drones at Putin personally then they are seriously risking a nuclear strike, and to be honest, a justified one. We hate Putin but he's still the Russian Head of State. You launch a strike on him, all youre doing is risking everyone in your country. Ukraine MOD isnt stupid.

Something the West flat out won't do. If you're doing that then do it yourself, do it right and make sure you've enough shovels and flamethrowers for all the dead at home afterwards. If the West are angry enough to do that (give LRM Ukraine) then a few Pantsirs won't do squat to stop whatever NATO slams Moscow with. Its a dead end speculation, it only ends one way - everyone dies.

Hmmm there's more layers to the RUS posture on Kharkiv than Silly Ivan Bought The Lie.

Elections and polls are my bet too. Kompromat is dramatic and exciting, but elections are the true fear of every politician. It takes a lot to beat that fear and take a chance with your political career. People have done it and succeeded, yet the fear is always an anchor around their necks. But sometimes you just should.

You're articulation of the above is very well made, and I do thank you for your input. It is appreciated. Otherwise, we'd have a Butschi-shaped hole in our understanding of the German political status, and that would be to our great communal loss. But I do have one point, or question really: Chamberlain was the democratically elected Head of a government in a free and fair process. He made some good decisions then made some very bad ones. No one gives him a free pass, and while many did at the time, many did not and made it very clear what he was doing was wrong on many, many levels (not just ethical). Are you saying once Scholz finds his true Munich moment that we should just accept it, as a decision by an elected representative? Im deliberately mentioning Munich as it seems Rammstein, if Scholz begs off, will be viewed as such by CEE. Just because he won a political election and has the legal right to decide on national courses of action doesn't mean we can't pour vituperation on a those decisions. If anything, a democratic society expects us to voice opinion, no? I guess that's two questions

Called it. Once that stupid legality delay is broken, expect a domino effect.

I'm sorry my German friends, I've lived in Germany, love the place and people, astounding art, history, culture, Beer, bread, women, I even like the actual language (!) but holy **** has Scholz made political spinelessness into a martial art. Even if he publicly commits He'll find ways to foot drag, reduce, side step and avoid following through in full on his word. Let's see Friday, but honestly, I'm not holding my bloody breath.

In German but worth the translate.. Good overview of the differences, implications of sane and which versions to focus on to create a Leo2A#UKR.

Love Strykers. Can't WAIT to see how UKR use them in various situations.

They already are probably a thing. The Ukrainian Volunteer blog has a note about it, where during briefing for a recon mission he asked about game cameras, if Command had evidence if it was a real issue. The answer was they did not but best to assume it was possible.

The fumes in those tanks...thats just so ludicrous. Even if using brand new, unused ones, the air supply need is where? How do they not Far more useful to use them for fuel. RUS has no issue moving men etc around. Plus, once those half-dead, fume-brained mobiks stagger out/are lifted out of the tanks, then what? They still need to be housed, and unless you're breaking the force up into small groups and - Im sorry, this is just a waste of time.

Oh man. How awful. How stupid to put the 3 highest in one helo, and wtf was the pilot doing flying low in protected airspace?

LOL Yes a flyboy would say that. While they're at it, the Typhoon's a little long in the tooth, they should put all those to Ukraine also. Give the CR2s some airborne emotional support.

Interesting, thank you. Very intriguing.

I wonder if it's so unbalanced. A defense in this kind of environment would need to be extremely jelly-like, able to fire, zip away to hide, then fire again, moving backwards/forwards/laterally. The trouble with defence is that you're defending something, usually an area, making you a target than can be id' to a general location then that targeting refined to find you. Defence itself might shift in form.to a smart formation with an amorphous, diffuse border zone (not edge) that is thickened in response to attack and can flow/defend forwards. Determining who is attacking/defending could be very hard to know for a while.

@The_Captet al https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/16/it-did-blow-a-flame-jet-so-nobody-inside-survived/ Ref how vulnerable Tanks are to squad ATGMs. Obviously we know this, but he also talks what would be possible counters.

Soooooo.... Steve is a Hobbit?

@Battlefront.com I'm curious on what capacity you're meeting that Deep State Deep Throat... Your industry is niche within the military training regime, you're not a published historian or (publicly) working analyst and BFC, while certainly idiosyncratic in regard to other Mil sims, is small fry. Is their interest in the products or your process, or for your 10th Man take on things? ie Are they seriously looking at CMBS? Or are they interested in how you and the team analyse the context, develop the backstory, flesh out the narrative and build the resulting campaigns? And/or from that, looking at external takes on their current CoA? The ideas you listed are all future-pointing and national strategic level, yet CMBS is the most modern product you have but is almost a decade old and tactical level. So what are they plumbing your depths for? Why you? And why now? And why so broad a list?

There's more new craters than shown shell hits, so editing in play? But precision doesn't need to be GPS guided, Drones add Precision if laser equipped (and without laser not as much, so maybe just Increased Accuracy).

@Battlefront.com # - Start a formal collaboration between DARPA and Ukraine MoD (UMoD should create an equivalent).

Deepen UKRAINE-NATO integration, training and Coordination.

Section A, pt 4,no?

10-15....per team? Or unit? They should be crack MFs by the end of a few days but where is the impact on the field? Also, that's a lot of fires with little time for BDA, training adjustment...

Every tank goes pop when hit correctly. RUS ATGMs are no joke and if used correctly can totally take out any Western tank, super-duper OP God Mode Abrams included. Western armor is probably better but it's not invincible. I guess the two factors affecting the kill rate are 1) Quantity and 2) Usage. RUS does not appear to have enough units in use, in comparison to UKR. I've seen this noted in some OSINT circles, and it's odd. They're not hard to make, the electronics did use some Western stuff but nothing irreplaceable and they must have had a large pre-war stockpile. One interesting idea I read was the state of RUS training - because their infantry wasn't strong after training, the churn was high and dedicated contrakti not very numerous. So perhaps the smarter higher ups put emphasis on aggressive armored mech attacks, with vehicles providing the hitting power to the spotting infantry, who were emphasized to urban assault, support and not long range tank sniping. This created an officer corp and mindset that focusses on mech, ie vehicle formations. This used the plethora of barrels available without the onerous actual training of infantry. Like with all corrupt organizations, the easiest way wins out, every time. Of course, that was while RUS was on the attack. I suspect we'll see a lot more ATGM use when UKR starts assaulting prepared RUS lines. I'm also curious about ATGM usage during the defense of Kherson...

Hahhhhh veeerry interesting point