Kinophile

If I was a UKR spook looking to **** with Little Goat Man's head, this avenue is something I'd expand and support. Like all autocrats, Kadyrov seems secure and solid, until he's not. They have large military apparatus out of emotional, political fear, not of logical military necessity. Ironically, the fear is very realistic in its articulation of the personal dangers but then tends to distort the analysis, corrupt solutions and inflate their reactions to perceived threats. Stir up enough trouble at home and Kadyrov is guaranteed to pull forces back. Of course, the question is How....

I really don't look at this as a positive. If Israel is attacking Iranian bases within Iran proper and not its proxy militias etc in Iraq/Syria then that is a straight up act of war, especially if significant (ie news worthy) amounts of Iranian personnel are killed. While that may in one theory cause Iran to focus its RUS efforts back on the Middle East, it adds to distractions for the US. Plus it could be a byproduct of the war, with those implications for the expansion of state v state violence.

Indeed. Where a relative of mine sees nefarious conspiracies, I see simple selfish incompetence. The two are not mutually exclusive, of course, but one is an easier course than the other. Occam's razor and all that.

@The_Capt https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-staff-ukraine-to-form-first-in-the-world-attack-drone-units

Huh, NYT thinking about the same thing

Ref corruption in Ukraine. Is this thread reasonably accurate, for our Ukrainian friends? Im very curious about its effects on the War effort. We're already fairly informed on Russian corruption and its effects on the AFRF, as much as open source lets us, but what of its toll on Ukraines fight? I've read reports of the West's pleasant surprise at just how controlled and inspectable the weapons tracking system is, and also we've heard of SBU Russian infiltration, corruption and treason. I'm curious from a day to day civilian experience and also effects on both the operational logistics and battlefield impact (eg officer quality). If uncontrolled there are serious long term implications to both final victory and winning the Peace...

This.

Don't know if LLF already posted this, but sounds like something is afoot in the Kremina region. Not just the current pressure but an actual push. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2023/01/26/i-sleep-light-enough-in-the-field-that-a-cat-farting-will-wake-me-up/

Probably the best simple summary for non-Mil of Why NATO tanks are not going to be quick: The 18 wheeler is the crux, eh. Not much use anything else if you can't get to where you are needed...

I don't fully buy this, to be honest... They were the tip of the spear against a fractured and mislead defense. My impression is that when they ran into heavy resistance that hung on then those lighter units backed off and kept moving, while heavier, tank reinforced units crushed those resistance points. The Kharkiv offensive slowed and stopped as the RUS forces solidified and hardened with better lead heavier armor/mech components, which blunted and stopped the lighter UKR forward penetration elements. So yes the HMMVVs broke through, but it was the follow on heavier elements, using tanks, that prevented the RUS defense from recovering. Outrunning the logistics distance for those heavier sections slowed them down, which meant the forward elements couldn't call on hheavies to crush local hard points. Without that heavier follow on punch behind them they lost their latent power to keep moving. Something had to take care of islands of resistance, and if that something wasn't there quick enough then the islands started to form zones and lines. By the time the logistics caught up to the heavies the moment had passed and it was now infeasible for the light penetrative units to make progress without serious losses. I do agree that the tank faces another iteration in the future, with unmanned autonomy a critical factor in both its threat envelope, its attack profile and its defense formatting. But that's the future, and probably 5 years to a decade away to have a platform that truly incorporates those elements into its fundamental design principles. Right here and now, tanks are the heavy punch. It doesn't matter that tanks are not doing Tank v. Tank work. That doesn't negate the usefulness of a platform with 125mm cannon, superb vision, excellent communication, solid mobility and tough armor. The initial dose of Leos is small but even if they're not fighting Ts directly, everything else in that platform is supremely useful. MBTs are heavy work in every sense, but they will be indespensible for final victory - as will a lot of other systems. All that said, personally I do agree that a bucket load of Bradleys, Strykers, Drones, long range artillery and good ISR will have a more immediate effect, right here and now.

M1s in UKR....? https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/01/24/world/russia-ukraine-news/the-us-is-moving-closer-to-sending-its-best-tank-to-ukraine-officials-say?smid=url-share

On the contrary - every single Dictatorship that's ever been has had multiple armed forces within it, all competing for that greenback milk from the Dear Leader's teat. The competing armed camps is a function not a flaw of every autocracy, as the point of a Dictatorship is to keep the Dictator in furs and have everyone else watching each other, while he remains "above the fray".

I really have doubts about an end fall. He's a very useful check on the MoD, and the very last thing a Dictatorship needs is an overweening Ministry of Defense. So he'll be knocked back, sure, but either helm stay around or someone like him to help slap the MoD when necessary.

Evil always contains the seeds of its own defeat....

Its almost like...there's a lack of Leadership...

Tbh, These days, any digitally competent Russian employee of the GRU can find vastly more info about the current state of things than our mental fumblings here.

Interesting idea, break up the jet with cones

@Zeleban @Haiduk Is this really in Lviv?

Ho boy that way lies madness!

I think the answer might be in your question. Every trend in the ZSU is towards NATOization and the basic mission of every NATO air force is command of the skies, which boils down to SEAD. Everything major follows from that and is not done until at least dominance is achieved. By contrast RuAur is doctrinally and structurally air artillery. So my bet is UKR won't waste a F fleet on ground attack, they'll go full A$$hole on RUS AD and AF, enabling their SuMig contingent to follow its heart and pound the ground.

Sure but Enforceable, how?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1616525786437283840?t=SGYQDAF8-I47onUc5N_2Yg&s=19

Yes, but symbols win wars, no? As a form Of communication of intent, symbols of whatever scale, usefulness and physical effects can have impact far removed from the "real life" utility. It's a sliding scale of symbolic impact, of course and completely subjective to the moment. Zelensky in combat fatigues, in front line positions, walking the streets of Kyiv are all symbols. By themselves they don't do anything but as a message they are immensely powerful - his symbolic actions indicate resolve. So sure, 14 tanks is symbolic, but it's also indicative of clear intent. One way or another, Ukraine is getting NATO tanks. Scholz's absence of symbolic support of this CoA is communication in itself. It doesn't do anything but that reality of that lack of action is visually verifiable - there are no Leos in Ukraine. That gaping hole in capability is indicative of Scholz's lack of resolve (or that his domestic concerns override everything, indicating a strong resolve to stay in power ). There's no symbolic action to point to, which is symbolic in abd of itself. If Scholz digs his heels in today (and I don't see a change in the domestic political calculus) then this Rammstein will become enormously symbolic, and have real world impact. For the sake of completeness I hope he has his useless scrap of paper ready when he walks out, it would be so - - symbolic.

For sure Poland will move ahead, without Germany. Hell, I'd be surprised if they even pay whatever fines etc for breaking the re-export contract permissions. They could just say they will, swear it up and down the street - and never do, just like Brave Soldier Scholz. Unlike Scholz, the Swedes know how to decide and then deliver:

This feels very close to a reality. Maneuvering through the competing needs and demands, into a nice, responsibility-free grey zone of deniability, plausibility, electibility and of course, unaccountability. Excellent domestic politicking empty of any actual principles. The Scholz Shuffle, everyone.