Kinophile

Thanks @JonS!

Hah!

The 7 decade old American volunteer in Ukraine was ambushed, finally. https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com/2022/12/17/we-are-too-old-and-mean-to-die-this-way/ Got out, no fatalities at least. Very clean and clear description. Very detailed too. The speed and accuracy of the UKR arty response is very intriguing. My amatuer instinct says 777s? Esp with the economical aspect of it - 2 x impact rounds to stir them up and break them out of cover, followed by 1 x airburst to cheesegrater them as they try to escape. No hollywood spray n pray with the arty here. Sounds like the hostiles were about max 25m away, if the airburst was close enough to do damage to his own unit. Also interesting how the RUS were specifically not spetsnaz, and seemed to know what they were doing. The lack of a flank attack on the Ukraine recon patrol to seal the trap implies some caution on the Ivans part, which ironically cost them everything. What could they have been? Airborne? Maybe the guy cant say because that would then infer which sector he's in. Also interesting how he seems to be the effective XO/2inC of the group, not just a specialist, valued older guy. By his account he naturally stepped into command, organized the mop up then stepped forward once the impact site was secured. Then lead the whole patrol (I think its a 6 man team?) back to base over 2 days.

Update - gear has arrived...

A nice example of how I imagine the effects of "corrosive warfare" doesnt stop at the items destroyed, and continues on to indirectly affect the enemy military systems and tactics. The HIMARs destruction of RUS artillery logistics reduces RUS artillery RoF (1st order corrosive effect) The only other tubes available are tank tubes, soooo A Tank becomes used as artillery (2nd order corrosive effect - tanks that could be used as tanks instead used as arty) Tank now firing more often than tanks usually do = rapidly increased barrel wear and usage of tank HE shells (3rd order CE) Tank finally gets reassigned back to direct support role, but barrel is now shot out so now less accurate (4th order CE). Tank is targeted by ATGM, sees and shoots but misses, doesnt kill the ATGM crew, so tank dies. (final effect) This is where enemy action forces a cascade of damage that goes from externally forced (the HIMARS strikes) to internally sustained and maintained along a path of military necessity, because indirect fires are required, so something must shoot. Ref Italy, my personal impression is that it wasnt a "lack" of Allied artillery that drove the use of tanks, it was usually the hilariously height-scaled terrain in many mountain areas. Sometimes Allied artillery couldn't angle enough to accurately fire over particular ridges. Also, putting a tank on an opposing ridge was often faster, more accurate and if lucky, higher than the opposing positions.

I'd say this is the source of those daily ISW comments about "routine shelling along the entire front"!

That's my point, geolocate the flight, prove its not at the front. I'm 100% in agreement it's assembled footage from different cameras on different days/flights. The "stock" footage of the "front" might be geo-datable to a much earlier date, where the ground filmed is now different in appearance and has been for a time. Essentially were talking degrees of and sources of how the fake video was constructed.

Exactly. I wonder if anyone has geo located this flight yet...

Thank you for weighing in! Very informative and clear posts, thank you.

What did the 46th do differently? Better recon, equipment, fires support,, leadership? How well equipped are the 46th in comparison to Wagner?

It's IE, so a pallet of buckets of salt, but... https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/tank-like-drones-to-battle-russia

Something going on with the Kerch? Or is it bad weather screwing with repairs and limiting traffic on a damaged spans?

Yes, I believe that's only happening now, in parts. Until Kherson ended it was reinforce in place.

Think I'm gonna give y'all a breather for the rest of the day... Besides, I've got some of my birthday cake to finish off! Strawberry & Cream meringue FTW

Ths fighting over think tanks stuff isn't really helping... (says the guy who took far too long to shut up about Cixin v Iain M. Banks). But still, it's like arguing about particularly ugly dogs... Republican Think Tanks etc: VS Democrat:

Hey up, I'm not on Tank Is Dead bandwagon! Don't tar me with that cat hair covered brush!

...Behind every Great Man is a woman - rolling her eyes... "

Yah pretty blunt. Have any of our Ukrainian friends seen it? In amongst the rolling blackouts, stupid russian invasion and whatnot....

The answer to that question — “why would Democrats want them back?” — is clear: because, as this new group demonstrates, Democrats find large amounts of common cause with neocons when it comes to foreign policy. Neeaaah US Thinktanks & Politics...always makes me want to wash my eyes afterwards... with acid.

Paywalled ;/

I'm no soldier but it sounds wayyy more complex and time consuming that that, to slot Leo2s into Ukrainian mech forces...

I think you're nitpicking here. Any mechanical/digital system can be circumvented given time and/or money, so of course any security measures could, eventually with great cost, be nullified. The technical ability of Ukrainian engineers and scientists is well documented and accepted, they're clever and resourceful gits so I'm certain they could have done something eventually. That wasn't the issue, it was the nasty warhead material itself. Ukraine had specialists sure, but it didn't have the comprehensive and integrated industrial, research and development architecture to maintain the warheads it had, keep their own country safe from accidents or make new ones, or store/get rid of the old material. Dismantling the damn things is insanely risky as it is. Plus Chernobyl gave everyone the willies and if I remember correctly from my reading ( a long time ago), the fact of already having one nuclear accident to clean up helped with the argument against holding onto a decaying stockpile of actual warheads. Plus, lets face it - the corruption at the time was nutso, so holding onto extremely dangerous weapons-grade material was just inviting trouble down the line.

But... what if we like the strap? giggity

Also, teaching a crew within an existing organization will natrually be reasonably short. Standing up an entire Leo2 div with all supporting trains is a different beast, I'd wager...

A good place to start is Perun on youtube. I'd posit its already in motion around Kremina-Svatove, plus long-range/SOF ****ery has already begun in Zaporizhia,. Plus, it was the Ukrainian pushing that caused those retreats, no? Not just on the ground but the HIMARS et al having great fun with Ivan's logisitics/corruption train. HIMARS is now even more expanded, UKR field artillery is making superb use of 777s and they seem to have rebuilt and expanded their indigenous ballistic/cruise missile industry. NATO/EU has already provided sufficient winter gear and there is steady supply of NATO trained reinforcements. Theres a decent IFC/AFV pool, that certainly needs more western vehicles, but its still a properly mechanised and winter-ready force. So, long answer short - Yes.