Kinophile

Im on the same page as ISW, always a good place to be. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-26-2023 "A negotiated settlement may therefore be unattainable because Putin will not accept the reality that he cannot actually conquer Ukraine".

Yah I've been listening to this. @chrisl you might have a better read on his overview, approach and conclusions? Seems decently rigorous and straightforward.

Personally I was unimpressed with that article. It's an intel officers view, but it's limited by his prior experience and personal biases (aren't all opinions, including mine). But he really gives Putin the benefit of the doubt. He fails to note how much Putin has backed himself in a maximallist corner, politically, and how much capital has been invested not just in the situation as-is but going forward. He seems to view Putin's international behaviour separate from his domestic situation and internal power balancing. On here we've often noted how so many of Putin's actions are internationally counter-productive yet maje sense domestically. This paragraph sums up the authors stumbling blocks, for me: 1. We're way past the point of Putin accepting any sort of blame, guilt, responsibility, etc, either personally or as "Russia". Putin has made Concessions for Peace not just anathema or even heresy, they're worse - a threat to his legitimacy. 2. He's been risking that since 3 days in and hasn't budged an imperial inch. Also, UKR opinion and the trauma of the society seems irrelevant to this guy. Not even a radar blip. Which begs the question, does he really have a clue a out how Ukraine would negotiate? Because it sure as hell won't be done Mano e Mano between Zelensky and Putin. Zelensky can only negotiate with Putin from a position of MAXIMUM Strength, not just from a weakened Russian Army. Nothing half-done wil do. The ZSU's Summer Offensive (I'm doubtful of a prong one) must either reconconquer the Donbass OR Crimea OR crush the AFRF to a point where the loss of either/both Ext year is blatantly inevitable. Anything less than an unbeatable ZSU overmatch in capablities, capacity and momentum will only invite Putin to "stay the course" and "outlast the West". His own danger must be imminent and unavoidable for him to show any flexibility.

I sorta mentioned something sideways related to this area previously. Last year my Wife (Polish dad, Ukrainian mom) was involved with a chef Friend in organising a large festival at a Ukrainian summer camp location outside Toronto. They eventually had a lot lined up - bands, food, kids bouncy castles, accommodation, the works. All Ukrainian food, musicians etc, everything in support of UKR refugees here in Canada. Let's call it "Ukrainian Refugee Festival 2022", so "URF 2022" for short. Wife and Friend were working with the Owner of the summer camp. Let's call him Oleg, Oleg the Owner. Soon they were at the point where a website should be up and running, for Wife to start pointing social media campaigns towards and to start selling tickets. Oleg had a guy attached, a proper website developer, legit and experienced. Let's call him Dave, Dave the Developer. So - Wife, Friend, Oleg (Owner) & Dave (web Developer), all working on "URF 2022" . (Ukrainian Refugee Festival). Early on Wife & Friend ask Oleg re website, pushing a lot, but Oleg is stalling, not clear why. He's older, maybe it's a generational thing, he doesn't "get it", yadda yadda. W & F know of Dave, want to talk to him direct but Oleg doesn't/won't give contact details. Two months pass of Festival organizing, busy busy busy. Wife checks in re website Again - nothing's built. WTF. With Friend she bears down on Oleg, eventually gets Dave's details and reaches out. Festival is two months away. Wife & Friend to Dave: Hi Dave! Oleg said you have a site built, may we see? Dave: Sure! (sends url) Wife: Hmh...? Friend: Uhhhh? The website domain is not "URF2022.com" The site mentions about a festival but no URF by name, and not at the Summer Camp location The Summer Camp location is mentioned but purely for 2024 (yes, '24) summer camps. The organization that the site is purportedly for my Wife has never, not once heard of. Let's them Who The **** Are These Guys (WTFATG). It's certainly not "URF 2022 Ltd" . There's no payment portal - you email this WTFATG with your tickets request and your credit card details in the email and they process the order and mail you the tickets. Mail. Not email. Mail. Perfectly safe, legit, transparent and standard, yup yup yup. Wife: Ugh Dave? Wtf all the above? Dave: You, Mrs. Wife & Mr. Friend, are as confused as I am. Btw I haven't been paid diddly squat and I'm nanometers from walking away. Your own confusion, as Primary Organizers, is a serious accelerant. Friend: Have you sent an invoice? Dave: Yes. To Oleg. Wife: WTFF (What The ****ing ****). Not even to the WTFATG? Dave: Nope. Oleg insisted, plus I have no details of WTFATG - address, accountants, working phone number, etc. Just that email. Wife: Dave - get your sneakers on, the fast ones. I'm gonna talk to Oleg and I have a bad feeling. Dave: Lady, metaphorically I'm sitting in the car with my foot hovering over the gas pedal. So, Wife & Friend call Oleg. Wife: Oleg, who are WTFATG? Oleg: Oh them, they're a separate organisation. Nothing to do with URF2022 Wife: Uh huh. Btw, no ****ing way we selling tickets in the process described above. Oleg: What? But how will we pay for the 2024 camps? Wife: WTFFF* are you talking about? We're organizing URF 2022 remember? Oleg: Yes, and they'll pay for the '24 camps in advance, then pay off the URF2022 people. Friend: Wait a second - "they"? The tickets for URF? Oleg: No, "they" as in WTFATG. But they need to be paid off, which is where URF 2022 will help them out. Plus how else will they pay me for minding the place? Wife: WTFFFF** do you mean, minding the place? Aren't you the bloody owner? Why the hell should URF2022 give any monies to anyone but Festival acts & suppliers, not to mention the fugees THIS WHOLE THING IS MEANT TO HELP? Oleg: Well they own the place, not me. I just live here. Wife: !!!! etc There are not enough ****s in the worlds to describe her simultaneous Volcanic Fury & Complete Confusion, her mind is in a quantum state of both Horrified (particle) and Enraged (wave). Wife: Oleg, your understanding of Space & Time, not to mention Basic Logic, leaves a lot to be desired. I don't know who the hell you actually are (the Janitor!?), who WTFATG are, what the hell is going on and why I'm still talking to you. I'm out. Wife calls Dave. Wife: GO. Dave: VROOM ... URF 2022 did not go ahead. Website disappeared. WTFATG still exist online. Kids still go to Ukrainian Summer Camp at that location but it is absolutely impossible to find out anything about WTFATG themselves. Not that Wifey cares to bother. Oleg is the Site Manager of the location; Wife never got the sense that he was a Bad Guy, just an older guy glad to have a paycheck who didnt have the wit to sense what was going on. True story, enormous quantity of ****s and all. *What The ****ing ****ity **** ** What The ****ing ****ity **** ****

@Taranis what would this rate do to barrel life? When would replacement be needed?

These PMCs definitely have a domestic intent. For one, they effectively become bodyguard forces, Esp against windows. It's interesting that a lot if the higher echelon RUS leaders have their own PMCs, often not large but still, armed organised and paid separate from the state. If I was the head of Gazprom and observing fellow Oligarchs suddenly deciding to mate with the ground from 5 stories up, I absolutely would want my own protectors. The other aspect t is Prigs steady attempts to build a friendly territory base away from Moscow. He's made good (albeit transactional) relationships elsewhere around the edges of SMO and Crimea fits that pattern. Stay Geographically close to the war held keep him "legitimate" through proximity.

"UKR Air Force to allow Foreigners as Pilots".

We had alot of that signalling before Kherson, no? There was obvious questions if it was the right thing to do, ultimately we landed on operationally Yes, but for the PBI, NOPE. So it turned out. Tbh, I don't know if there's really anywhere else but Zaporizhia-Melitopol axis. It uses the strengthing ZSU CoG to destroy /cut a significant chunk of the AFRF. A direct assault could very well succeed and if it does, is a defeat that has immediate Theater effects, not just operational. It also keeps ZSU logs nice and tidy while yanking apart Russian ones. I could see a simultaneous push in Luhansk to tie down that front but still, Zap-Mel feels inevitable, so no need to dissemble?

I like Dara, but let's review this and see how accurate they were.. It's RAND so, yeah... But it's also Massicot, so....

One final note on that Politico article about UKR training on Patriot. The US trainers started with 2 translators, then rapidly scaled up to 18.

And to repeat... Where? Like you said, where they end up is where the schwerpunkt will be. Incidentally, I'm not seeing a marked increase in UKR corrosion of RUS logistics in any particular area - yet. UKR doesn't have the stock to waste on a feint, so I assume an uptick in strikes in a certain area will be a flag.

Nm

Going further with that Politico article - https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/21/ukrainian-soliders-patriot-missile-training-oklahoma-00088166 Towards the end it mentions: If so, where?

Tell me you're Eastern European without saying you're Eastern European....

Ah hah.

Those BIG FAT fuel tankers too.

Well to quibble, he got Russia. He Russia'd himself. I believe a technical description is auto-copulation? He's certainly ****ing himself. Even better, I found Putin's spirit animal, the Antechinus.

I wonder if the Prigster is trolling Putin... Gimme what I want or I **** up your China lifeline...

You're my Nerd Hero. But, to correct, it was The Capt.

Well looky looky here...ISW now has a dedicated section on China v Taiwan.

I'm a gonna take this slim opening and completely abuse it... Directed to @The_Capt - You mentioned a while back back about Information as Mass. I found this very interesting. I guess this feeds into "Precision" but I got the subsense you were thinking on something else - something broader in military effects on the Line but deeper in source depth, perhaps? Stretching from the furthest Trench to the nearest Starbucks.... Is this a good read? I was struck by how something as foggy and vague as Information could have Mass, both from a figurative and literal sense. TBH I'm not even sure if Information is the best descriptor, but I also don't know what's rolling around inside the pinball machine of your mind. But I sense myself it could be a very good angle on the nature of this war. Could you elaborate?

We love our tourists, and we also love "taking the piss"...

No comment.

Superb info.

Oh its dirty, I can assure you. I know for a fact the local kids have been pissing on that stone for decades. For a fact, ladies.