The_MonkeyKing
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Posts posted by The_MonkeyKing
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can anybody find the oryx page that listed the 2014-2015 OSINT verified equipment losses?
Can't find it for the life of me
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I had little bit forgotten about Belarus card Russia is still actively hanging over Ukraine's head. Ukraine cannot ignore it even if it is a know bluff.
I think the situation has also now changed with the mobilization and new level of risk taking by Russia. They might very well do some union-state maneuver to get Belarus involved. If nothing else in a similar way as other Russian border regions are a source of meat to grind on the front. Lots depends on does Russia think it has the ability to force Belarus to its will.
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2 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:
What I always find fascinating about these kind of pictures of the Ukrainian military is the quiet professionalism that they seem to emit. That was something noticeable from the first hours of the war. Whatever the situation, they always seem to know exactly what they're doing.#
In a few years, these guys will be training us, not the other way around.
With these kinds of pictures we must remember there are only few and these few are the ones Ukraine chooses to publish.
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3 minutes ago, Huba said:
Yeah, looks like it. Things are escalating rather quickly, I wonder what the West's response would be - I'd expect some more spectacular weapons (like yesterday's HIMARS battalion), but this wish was repeated so many times I doubt it at this point.
I think the response could be a combination of:
- giving Russian seized assets to Ukraine (anyway just matter of when)
- quality escalation of military aid by the US (some of these: M2 Bradley, Patriot, ATACMS)
- sanction escalation mainly by Europe (the so far stuck sanctions advancing like price cap)
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Seems the hope that (some people had) of Russia backing away with the annexation after the Meduza article is fading again.
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I missed this. Barge bridge being disassembled. Couple days ago.
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2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
Hopefully a Red Wedding.
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As for Abrams, can Abrams even be operated by someone who doesn't have American Logistical Magic? I thought it takes more fuel than other thanks due to the turbine?
Well T80 has a turbine engine and Ukraine manages with them just fine.
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16 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
Apparently this is a purchase order, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3173378/11-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
I want to claw my eyes out but i suppose its fine.....maybe if Putin actually annexes the occupied regions, the U.S will suddenly release some more HIMARS immediately.
Makes sense we are going to be seen lot more of these in the future.
I think we must think of these is not taking away from other aid but adding to it.
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i wonder what is this about? "In few years"?
For a purchase order I would understand this but not for these aid packages.
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Those were the times. Anybody who even speculated anything like what we have today were laughed out the room.
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11 minutes ago, Huba said:
My first thought is that UA suffered some noticeable attrition and needs replacements. Just the wear and tear after this few months could do that, without any losses to enemy action. But even if say half of these are replacements, it still will considerably increase the UA fleet. Which in turn points to increased, rather then decreased use of GMLRS, in turn meaning that US has opened it's ammo storage doors wide open and probably considerably cranked up the production too.
It surely will be a big morale booster for Ukrainians, and a signal for RU that US means business. Really made my day
Biggest thing this tells me ammo is still not looking to be an issue.
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A massive attack on NATO countries energy infrastructure. I am waiting for the western response.
Will this (once again) be responded to only verbally or with bs?
In the past it has been OK to:
- assassinate in NATO country
- blow up ammo dumps in NATO country
- shoot at and blackmail nuclear plants in EuropeOh, and Russia is threatening with total gas cut-off now. Most likely trying to water down the west coming response.
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1 hour ago, Huba said:
Dmitry translated the latest Rybar update about Liman front. A few interesting bits:
- mobile UA units reached Zherebets on the north
- Svatovo - Kreminna road under (artillery I presume) fire
- RU defending bravely, definitely it looks like they do not intend to retreat.
Overall, the kessel seems to be practically closed
Where is the information on the river crossing in the south coming from? Only RUS sources?
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16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
And now we probably will watch activatin of new UKR sector of offensive - Svitlodarsk bulge.
Today HQ building of 7th LPR motor-rifle brigade in Brianka town was HIMARSed. All UKR offensives started with strikes on command centers. 7th MRB is one, who holds lines on Svitlodarsk bulge.
Remains of HQ building.
Local public: There is no more a building of 7th brigade HQ. Allegedly 9 missiles. Blockages are removing
7th brigade write
In short: HQ of 7th brigade really was wiped out. I will not tell about losses. Breakthrough of AFU took place near Novoluhanske. Not far from of this place our battalion was deployed. They have to be throw prisoners [he means PMC detachment from fromer jailed] there as far as the day before yestarday, but I didn't hear any news. On our positions nothing changed. But can change soon. I advice to prepera to Kahrkiv oblast scenario. Beware encirclement.
Answer: everybody are preparing to this, though our direction not the highes priorities for Ukies. But two our hospitals already moved closer to the rear. If they break into our defense, then we will be forced to withdraw our guys from Soledar/Artyomovsk [Russians still name Bakhmut on Soviet manner].
intersting, no major sources are catching up to this
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54 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:
Why did we not act quicker in Yugoslavia then? It's not only about military spending but about culture. The losing countries of WW2 have big cultural taboos about using their armies abroad. Germany and Japan were to never become threats to others again.
Good point.
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2 minutes ago, billbindc said:
I will admonish, no more. But the above should be admonishment itself.
by % of GDP
Also Germany is one of the few who actively block export licenses
https://app.23degrees.io/view/F1tc2gv8QzFCs1ij-bar-stacked-horizontal-figure_3_4_csv_v2-1
Also all German support is public information. Many others not. So Germany looks better here than many others.
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Just now, Bulletpoint said:
Fixing problems by military intervention has not been in fashion here since WW2, and modern Europe is to a large degree designed in the USA.
A toothless Germany was just what you needed after the last big war. Now maybe you'd like the Germans to show a bit more fighting spirit, but that's been crushed out of them.
Europe is still terrified of its own shadow.
Europe and especially Germany was not toothless 30 years ago.
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15 minutes ago, Lethaface said:
This is what I don't understand; this war is Russia's mess which indirectly creates a security mess for Europe and thus NATO.
The fact that Germany bought a lot of gas from Russia is a strategic mistake (especially in hindsight) but doesn't make it a German mess.
Did doing business with the US make Iraq mess also someones else mess?- France and Germany largely handled the Minsk agreements.
- Europe made the decisions not to sell weapons to Ukraine after 2014. (US did sell some)
- Europe chose its energy strategy against the wish and recommendation of the USA
- Europe chose to run down its military capability against the wish and recommendation of the USA
European policy lead us to where we are today. Policy that was often contested by the USA. But just like with US running its show in North America Europe runs its show in Europe and US respects that.
It is only fair that Europe carries the main burden. And US cannot do too much against the will of European countries(example Germany doesn't want long range missiles or western MBT/IFV to Ukraine). USA should not bail-out Europe in this. Especially if Europe is unwilling and unwilling to pay the price.
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2 minutes ago, Butschi said:
I won't speculate on the reasons why the respective countries don't send their stuff. It's their decision (and theirs alone, mind you) to decide what to deliver. I just get frustrated with this constant applying of double standards. Where are the cries of "Why doesn't Biden finally send M1s to Ukraine?"?
Yes, it is Germanys own decision what to send. Everyone just has to face the consequences of their decisions. It is free decision for everyone else on how they react.
Pointed out why the Abrams issue is different case on my above post. This whole war is Europe's mess and especially so German mess.
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13 minutes ago, Butschi said:
Also, I'll say it for the umpteenth time: You can rightly criticize that the West as a whole is not willing to send tanks and IFVs. But as long as neither US nor UK nor any other western country with domestic tank development and production is willing to send their stuff it is rather hypocritical to single out Germany.
Criticize US, yes we should. But they are already number one supplier by a mile, in quantity and quality. This is a European war and would be quite something to walk over Europeans in everything. I am sure if EU asked for Bradley and Abrams and helped with the finances US would help.
Leopard 2 is the only European MBT in enough numbers (thousands) and at least some production. Both UK and France have couple hundred of they own and production doesn't exist anymore.
So, Germany is indeed the only one who can provide MBTs (give their own or give export permission for sending to Ukraine).
It would be pretty laughable if UK or France would have to send a battalion of their domestic unicorn tanks to unlock the Leopard hordes.
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1 minute ago, billbindc said:
Putin wants to lock Russia in. Just turning off the pipelines allows a potential successor to offer a reversal. It's a bargaining chip to get Western support.
This is a great point!
Might apply to multiple all in decisions Russia is now doing.
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5 minutes ago, Taranis said:
"Photo of the bubbling observed by the Danish army on Tuesday. RITZAU SCANPIX / VIA REUTERS"
This North Stream sabotage was mainly made to indirectly threaten that this might very well happen to Norwegian gas lines as well. Or so I believe.
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4 minutes ago, rocketman said:
Sweden should be on that list and send more than a handful. And while at it send some Archer systems as well.
Yeah, missed that. Why did they have to rename it to Strv 122, haha.
Also some others missing but main point being even with very low balled analysis 200 modern Leopard 2's for Ukraine are totally doable.
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Probably made a new bridge out of the tanks wrecks Russia left there in its own crossing attempt in the summer. hah
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
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Happy unification day to you in Lyman!