The_MonkeyKing
-
Posts
1,777 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Posts posted by The_MonkeyKing
-
-
13 minutes ago, Huba said:
Destroyed bridge in Kupyansk:
Interesting choice to blow it rather than capture it for a bridgehead.
Possibilities: Russians blow it(looks like it, pretty "clean cut") or Russian reinforcements were close to crossing or other retreating.
-
We learned from history that we didn't learn from history.
-
gestimated animation of the operation so far
-
1 hour ago, riptides said:
Getting back to this....was this guy ever verified? The big deal is of course, you have him, you have his staff, plans, etc. etc.
the ear and the mole makes a good match
-
11 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Khereson
At Brdigheads looks like UKR reached Chakalovske. AFAIR it is last major settlement on the way of AFU. UKR recon teams operating beyond Chakalovske and at highway.
Seems certain Ukraine is going to secure the terrain all the way to the Oskil river.
Time to start wondering about Velykyi Burluk and expanding towards the north and how totally the Izium "pocket" can be destroyed.
-
Indeed more I think about it this has the potential of becoming a major headache for the Russians in the east. They might have to abandon dreams of Donbass liberation.
-
-
babushkas party on
-
All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case?
Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed)
Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture?
-
“The Russians are now evacuating Kup'yans'k. That is, Ukr. the breakthrough is clearly quite extensive“
-
I find it very strange we have now multiple times seen Ukrainians firing HIMARS as a group of 4.
This would be a huge no-no in the Finnish military.
Finnish military article on SPG battery tactics (in Finnish):
https://imgur.com/a/oj6r7Ra (google camera translate "works")
Not an MLRS but those systems are even more valuable and would be used with even more care. (SPGs operate alone as a part of the battery but never get grouped together)
-
7 hours ago, Huba said:
This has an Article 5 escalation potential...
We have precedent on Russia poisoning people and blowing up ammo storages in NATO countries. With minimal response.
-
3 hours ago, Hapless said:
Krulak Centre's Brutecast tackles it, exploring some possible options:
Good vid, cannot count out the air force either as a suspect.
We have so many suspects, haha. Good indicator that Ukraine indeed has lots of options (or easily realizable options) for deep strikes.
-
Lost equipment in that strike is worth a small countries air forces whole inventory.
-
The first satellite photos I believe:
-
9 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:
Apparently an anonymous Ukraininan source has told Washington Post the Novofedorivka attack had been done Ukrainian Special Forces. Of course this may be just a new alternative explanation to confuse the Russians.
[Edit] Others beat me to the news.
Spec ops can used drones and they can also smuggle HIMARS close enough.
-
2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Interesting that a Ukrainian military official said that the weapon used was of Ukrainian manufacture. I have to say I don't believe it. Maybe a Ukrainian modification of a Western supplied munition... OK, maybe they figured out how to launch something in a way that the original weapon wasn't intended to do. But coming up with a totally home built precision guidance system of this sort? I'd love for this to be true, but I don't think so.
What we need to know is how many hits were there and if the explosions we saw were primary or secondary effect. Because if Ukraine really did cobble something together, I doubt it was 10 of them (one report speculated 10 hits). And if the huge explosion was a primary explosion, then it would need to be a pretty big munition. However, if the explosion was secondary then I suppose something like a Harpoon hit was on an aviation fuel or munitions depot would produce the effect we saw.
We also need to tie this into the slightly earlier strike that was just north of Crimea. The two are most likely related in terms of the weapon used and an intended message for Russia.
It's in Ukraine's best interest to keep everybody guessing or assuming it was HIMARS.
Steve
have to add to my list "drones". Also partisan launched kamikaze drones.
My top contender.
-
-
3 minutes ago, keas66 said:
Well the concern is that they will respond in an extreme manner ( nukes ) - which is in nobodies interest - including the Russians - Someone has decided that they won't do that - I consider that a risky decision - I guess we will see what happens next .
well, I hope they use nukes. That would seal Russia's fate.
-
So this airbase strike, couple of options:
- New HIMARS ammo given in secret
- commando raid
- sabotage
- GMLRS armed HIMARS sneaked close enough (might even be on a ship)
- Russian blow themselves up (two separted explosions, unlikely?)
Hard to say which
EDIT: add made in Ukraine equipment like Neptune
-
3 minutes ago, keas66 said:
Seems like a very risky call by someone to allow these attacks on Crimea ? I mean - are we not all now waiting to see how Russia will react ? This seems like a red line to me - If we cross it and continue to cross it - The Russians are rapidly running out of options except the worst case . I am more than a little nervous right now .
Crimea was declared free fire zone from the start by the US.
And how would Russia exactly manage to escalate this in its favor?
-
https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/great-expectations-the-next-phase-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/latest "it is highly contingent" from Koffman.
I tend to agree with him that the situation is too hard to read to state any outcomes as a "fact" from the outside.
-
5 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:
So with everyone agreeing that counteroffensive is not happening, what is going to happen then? Will Ukraine just wait for the Russians to leave, while HIMARSing them continuously and watching people in occupied areas suffer?
I wouldn't agree that it is not happening. But I am also not saying the opposite. I am agnostic on this matter atm.
I see the fog of war is clearly too thick to say much. Like Koffman just says "it is contingent".
Maybe Ukraine attacks successfully (or not), Maybe Russia attacks successfully (or not) or both sides just wait and see.
-
6 hours ago, Huba said:
So I just watched the weekly analysis by PL OSINT guy/ journalist Wolski, whom I often quote here. Unfortunately Youtube does not translate his videos, so I'll summarize it in few points (his opinions, not mine):
- frontline is static everywhere, and it's likely it will remain so
- RU forces in Kherson, Zaporozhya and Crimea are way too strong for UA to take on directly
- for the time being we won't see much more than is already happening. UA doesn't have the forces yet to really beat Russian head on.
- The whole talk about offensive is politically motivated ( Zenelsky and his ppl pushing UA General Staff for some victory, as was the case in Severodonetsk "counterattack"). Zaluzny does some posturing and local pushes but is too smart to allow using up his reserves (yet at least), so he balances the political requests with military reality and will be defending mostly.
- The real success of Kherson offensive is that bulk of RU forces sits there idly, practially abandoning any serious attempt at offensive in Donbas
I don't feel I know enough about the status of the opposing forces to really accept (or seriously question) this predictions. Apart from this equation, it is not clear to me to which degree UA is actually able to isolate right bank Kherson. RU seems to be thinking that they will do with ferries only apparently - we will see if they are right.
If I was to guess what is going to happen I'd say that UA will be upping the pressure on RU units in left bank Kherson, but won't commit to anything serious for quite some time. Conservation of forces and building up the reserves is the name of the game for the time being, as time still is on UA side. As for attacks elsewhere, I'd say UA will strike if opportunity presents itself, without taking any big risks.
Edit:
Oh, and one more RUMINT/ idea from Wolski: According to him, US delivered some Su-27s used for OPFOR by US Air Force. These perhaps might have been rigged to fire HARMs. I personally don't find it likely, but idea of delivering the planes themselves is interesting.
similar conclusions from a Finnish retired officer following the war: https://www.facebook.com/taktiikkajermut (translate works)
"
I'm attaching my little reflection on shifting the focus of Russian forces from Donbas to the south in the direction of Kherson and Zaporizhia and why!My reflection starts from the fact that there have been no signs of Ukraine's machinated takeover of the south in the last two months or so, e.g. in the use of a modern western artillery weapon. The cutting of innumerable ammunition depots and the Dnieper bridges has raised the spirits of so many.
WHAT HAS THE USE OF THE NEW ARTILLERY LEAD TO?
Of course, the Russian military command is a learning organization. Material stocks have now been distributed in the occupied territories to population centers, schools and administrative buildings, even to the nuclear power plant.
The rivers are still crossed with an endless supply of pontoons, which were used during the Cold War to prepare for an attack up to the English Channel along the Warsaw Pact from East Germany, Belarus, Ukraine and Romania. So there is enough equipment.
WHY RUSSIA HAS NOW GROWN ITS POWER SOUTHIncreasing Russia's forces may have other significance than the (non-existent) major attack from Ukraine! The non-existence is also indicated by the fact that the Russian media and war blocs have not had much to say about it for more than a month.
The concentration of Russian forces almost corresponds to the forces concentrated in the capture of Kiev in the 1st phase of the war or the operation to capture Donbas at the beginning of the 2nd phase, and now we are going with a similar concentration of forces in the Kherson-Zaporizhzian directions!
Could it be that Russia is now taking advantage of Ukraine's inability to equip new mechanized brigades with armored vehicles in the southern direction? Of course, Ukraine has enough willing crew for a million-strong army, but where are the Western wagons staying, why and where!
Maybe right now, before the rasputitsa, the Russians could strike in the south and that's why the concentration of troops!
"
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
I wonder what is under the tarp? Would there be any reason for a tarp other than hiding something? (Maybe just hiding the amount of shots already fired from that magazine)