Kraft
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Posts
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Posts posted by Kraft
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Hopefully the rate of these will increase.
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28 minutes ago, Fenris said:
As amusing as this sort of thing appears, I think it's just the reality of forced adaptation.
I know and the reality applies for either side, not just russia of course.
Probably to more western armies than many people here think. A couple hundred planes won't solve this, you would have to solely win by air and only the US can realistically do that.
It was meant as a jab at the idea that russias vehicle losses at Krynki dont matter because hordes of infantry and their chicken cage motorcycles will frontally assault a ww1 trench better than a BTG or 10, that are listed on Oryx now instead.
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"destroying russian vehicles doesnt matter"
the new drone proof Z-Sturm assault chicken cages.
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3 hours ago, Viko said:
The recent Russian offensive near Kharkov was carried out with virtually no armor and was very successful. Special forces units played a decisive role.
And how is that going for them now that its not just sparse TDF lacking both drones and artillery in unfortified positions opposing the numericly superior force?
Any recent advances since the first surprise on grey zone? No? Dozens of drone videos of dying russians in some, for a change, not cratered field? Check.
The terrain even favors infantry a lot more than the east, yet it bogged down in a week and hasnt moved in 10 days.
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3 hours ago, Viko said:
And also highly motivated Ukrainian marines. Please note, Putin is exchanging the lives of mobs with zero efficiency for the lives of trained and highly effective Ukrainian marines. Armored vehicles in today's realities play a secondary role; trained infantry have taken the first role. The Ukrainians thought that Krynki would divert significant Russian forces from operations in the east. The Kharkov offensive showed that this was a mistake. The recent promotion of General Sodol, the former commander of the Marine Corps, has caused discontent among the Ukrainian military. it is this guy that the Ukrainian marines blame for the senseless losses of marines in Krynki
This is incorrect for the majority of the fighting and advancing taking place. With the exception of kreminna etc, where infantry highly matters, for the most part it is the most helpless.
Over +2km open no mans land, infantry that wants to assault a dug in position can be spotted forming from +10km away and DPICM & drones will feast before the defenses are reached. It takes a few 300 and the assault breaks down. Nobody will charge kilometers on foot over rough ground while having drones dive on them at the very least, 155mm if they're unlucky. The russian special forces die to FPV and artillery just as storm-Z does, the quality doesnt matter.
Now, wagner adapted to this kssue, 5~7 man infiltration teams worked well as they can approach more stealthily, and cant be shelled when there are shortages.
But this is an incredibly slow process that will not force a collapse before EU/Nato help spools up through 2025, all the while burning through people just the same if ammunition is no pressing concern. It also only works in the right terrain, not open fields with a tree line every 1-2 km.
So how does russia advance? They pile up meat on a vehicle, drive it through the minefields, arty and drones and sometimes the units come through and it ends up being a coin toss who remains in the trench, if the defenders dont evacuate beforehand, which more often happens, with the idea of droning the survivors in the trench (lacking any and all serious EW) and returning to the position.
This leads to massive losses but it works in pushing the line.
Krynki had massive vehicle assaults for months as seen in the loss sheets of people tracking losses, that were picked apart by the elevated positions on the other side, as well as good hidden drone teams in the village cellars that can sustain nearby 500kg bombs.
These vehicles are now not a threat to the unfortified east Avdiivka area anymore, where, if you recall, the russians after running low on tanks ended up driving their meat on btr82s and btr80s into Bradley ambushes, who only sustained losses from lancets, not russian armor.
Long story short without a widespread infantry portable adoption of EW *+* a 2nd coming of massive shell shortage that would target these EW, russia without vehicles will be stuck in ww1 with unwinnable, massively stacked for the defender conditions, that over the long or short term will end up in a 2nd Afghanistan.
Do note the same applies to the ZSU, as the southern offensive deeply showed with similar wrecked coloumns and minefield carnage that dwindled the handful of Bradleys and leopards so it was reverted back to single squads clearing trenches and grinding forward, at a similar pace (minus the 300 drone FPV clips on russian infantry stuck on a field we see now almost every day)
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Biden admin got cold feet
QuoteWhite House confirms that Ukraine cannot hit Russia with ATACMS missiles
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/05/31/7458627/
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1 hour ago, Viko said:
Another Ukrainian adventure ended in complete failure with huge casualties.
Krynki was one of the most effective places in burning russian vehicles.
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1 hour ago, Offshoot said:
There were comments a few(?) weeks ago that Russians had abandoned positions on the left bank. Is this what you are referring to? Or are you saying the Ukrainians have abandoned the positions? As well, the Magyar unit has left the Kherson region for Kharkiv oblast. Maybe the pickings were too slim in Kherson now and they have gone to fuller hunting grounds.
Madyar and probably the bulk of the other units.
There was footage of russians carelessly walking through the center, which was a highly contested kill zone for anyone to be in a week ago, let alone waltz along the road. Without Madyar units support there is no point in sending Marines over.
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Seems like (atleast) the urban positions in Krynki have been abandoned, possible units are moving north to stabilize there.
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Quote
Western businesses backtrack on their Russia exit plans.
Shortly after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, scores of such groups pledged to scale back their presence in Russia as the west sought to starve the country’s economy and the Kremlin’s war coffers of foreign cash.
Overall, more than 2,100 multinationals have stayed in Russia since 2022, the Kyiv School of Economics has found, compared with about 1,600 international companies that have either quit the market or scaled back operations.
387 exited, 1223 'curtailed', 2173 remain
https://www.ft.com/content/88b047e9-8cad-426a-b649-265ff6582db0
Here is a neat website to check what product is from a company staying, can use barcode:
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24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
So after two years of this thing, you have not noticed that the Russians tend to up-play things they do not care about and stay silent of stuff they do? An apartment building gets taken down and it is all over the RUS-IO sphere but things that actually hurt - like deep strikes on oil infra - they really don’t make a fuss. Ya think maybe it is a bit of a ploy?
I am talking about communication from top officials, even coked up propagandists know the people wont buy a 'west is planning preemptive nuclear strike', its not like they are blind to the 2 years of pussy footing around what 50 year old gear to send. Nukes are a little ways off.
The russian fear of nuclear catastrophe can be accurately described by the tons of decade old ammunition they store in a recently active nuclear reactor close to the front line.
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Why is everyone here so hung up on the radar when russia themselfs doesnt seem to care too much?
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2 hours ago, Eddy said:
for the upcoming peace talks that the Ukrainians are putting together
?
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1 hour ago, dan/california said:
The question remains, does anybody on the Russian side have the sense to go home, or are they keep going until something breaks, and takes the regime down with it.
Today I saw a video of jollie russians below a tank, who taped their noses shut and had covid masks because they used the maggot filled, decomposing corpses of other russians to block the FPVs from flying into their meat fort, something I have seen countless times already.
They were in a good mood and discussed further improvements to their little hole to make it fire resistant, in case a drone were to ignite the corpses.
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Hit the tank shed with your homing drone!
We have our own countermeasure against the enemy
Where ordinary drones cannot cope due to the work of EW, the new development works successfully.
Thanks Ivanhoe and friends for a great job!
AI drone hitting the assault shed tank
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On 5/9/2024 at 10:08 AM, Kraft said:
54th Brigade (K-2 drone unit) stops a 3 wave mechanised attack of more than a dozen vehicles.
Video has good english CC translation and explanations
Part 2.
2 armored columns, including shed-MT-LB, manage to break through and 2 russian Platoons storm the trench. Its censored and also has subtitles:
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1 hour ago, Tenses said:
In the meantime, does anyone predict what could be the moment Ukraine will be able to stabilise the front? Since Avdiivka fall, as seemed not important event, the pace of Russian push is only increasing. I know, there are a lot casualities on RU side and all this stuff but, if attacker takes ground it is much more different situation than we were used to before when stable defense was present across entire front.
Also do we have any more info on more "frontline" drones for Ukraine, hopefully autonomous? We are seeing a massive waves of strategic drone(cruise missile) attacks on the back into RU oil industry and logistics but it seems that frontline stabilisation is now priority. Without drones on the frontline in sufficient numbers and quality, stopping the push is most likely impossible.
Possible if russians run out of steam in the short term, my guess to that is they wont.
Whats flowing into the front right now wasn't stockpiled up, its the number of vehicles actively being restored and sent out in new units. What max help short term is the delivery of US shells, they are already having a visible effect in stopping assaults and covering tank columns quickly.
The earliest *possible* long-term depleation of soviet storages are estimated to mid 2025 to late 2025, after that its down to production numbers and the front would slowly freeze as replacements become scarce like they do for the ZSU.
This assumes china stays out of it and doesnt lend a hand to russia.
As for countering the current mess, the units are more exhausted than they were at the beginning of Avdiivka, there are however 3? Light Brigades in forming. I dont know at what stage they are or if they have already been commited.
There is also the plan to build 10 more brigades. Take note the commander of the ground forces states the issue is in heavy Equipment to outfit the units, not the manpower to fill them.
They will be used exclusively to Guard Kyiv though, as the fear is russia will launch another major offensive there.
About drones, Sternenko has a constant fundraiser, he started the 1 million drone Initiative: send.monobank.ua/jar/dzBdJ3737
His Telegram with proof of deliveries and several dozen daily result videos: t.me/ssternenko
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1 hour ago, FancyCat said:
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told EU foreign ministers last week that Ukraine needed 2.5 million artillery shells this year, according to the Financial Times - suggesting a daily requirement of 7,000 - but the EU had sent only 400,000.
Demand from the Ukraine war has driven up prices to $2,800-3,200 per round from $700-$1,200 beforehand, two sources familiar with the market said.
The target of 7000/d is already abysmally low and doesnt come close to matching russia and yet even that goal is missed by 6k/day? Wow
Without the late 2023 mass production of cheap as dirt FPVs the front would be breaking apart right now under the locust swarms of russian tanks and troops.
How good that the managed escalation policy makers foresaw this development and worried not /s.
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48 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Ok, so what is going on then?
Right now, Ukraine is supposed to have over 150B euro in aid in motion, while another tranche of what looks like 140B euro (if one adds in latest from US)
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
That is approaching 140+ billion per year of this war. Ukraine's entire national GDP in 2021 was 200B. It is effectively subsidized for 2/3rds of its entire economy to fight this war for the last two years.
So where did it all go? Did it not show up? Do we have evidence of this? Why after coming up on 280B euro is the UA lacking equipment and vehicles? Things are not adding up here.
Afghanistan peace mission cost 300mln/day. Oryx has 5700 items listed for Ukraine visually confirmed lost in 2 years.
That 300mln/day didnt involve a more than doubling of the military and their wages, equiptment, thousands of vehicles blowing up that need replacing, or shell expenditure at a level of ww2 that seemingly drained europes cold war storages, large scale daily AA / weekly cruise missile usages etc.
That doesnt account for workforce being drafted and killed and that budget didnt have to keep the economy afloat with a 30% drop in GDP while facing higher expenditures due to falling currency value and active destruction of infrastructure ///support for millions who had to flee
Also when talking about aid $$$ figures Im always cautions about the valuation of vehicles that have been sitting in storage for 50 years and are being actively scrapped for the most part.
Thats not free budget that can be spent on other vehicles, its tied to a Leo1 that'll blow up on a mine with a book value of ?? Mln €.
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2 hours ago, pintere said:
In Ukraine there is lacking a similar kind of ruthlessness. Zaluzhny said last year he needed 500k men, by the looks of things on the frontline right now he was probably right. But it seems like the Ukrainian government and military leadership are either unwilling to accept the realities on the ground, or aren’t prepared to do something that could potentially push the country’s internal situation to potentially unstable levels.
While I agree full war mobilisation of infustry and personal needs to happen (and needed to happen last year) one thing that likely contributed to this is the lack of equiptment to outfit these new units.
There are shortages everywhere, not just tanks and IFVs but cars, ATGMs, handheld AT, AA units and missiles, artillery guns, shells, supply trucks, escavators, rifle ammo, training capacities ... Current formations cant be kept at 80% how are 500k more soldiers supposed to be equipted? They'd be one-use fodder like Sturm-Z and that helps little and costs too much
I mentioned lack of simple civilian pick up cars for medevac from the frontline a year ago, which could simply be solved by western nations giving government contracts to whatever car manufacturer there is that produces these types of vehicles. Not armored APCs or somesuch. Used civilian cars are being crowd funded to rescue soldiers.
Hell, leave out the costly electronics if you want all that is needed is 4 wheels and an engine, FPV threat or not.
The funding just is not there for such simple things, despite all the glamourous hero talk.
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54th Brigade (K-2 drone unit) stops a 3 wave mechanised attack of more than a dozen vehicles.
Video has good english CC translation and explanations
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Two times olympic weightlifting champion Oleksandr Pielieshenko gave his life while in service of the 47th Brigade
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Uraaaaaaaaa
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
It is also only a fraction (usually the highlights) of what is being uploaded on the drone units TG channels, it is almost a full time job watching everything at this point and I am not able to keep up at all.
I'd wager these two were sent to die to expose possible unspotted defending positions.
Sadly no damage assessment, I want to see how the Rider looks like.