Grigb

France has not yet paid fully for Moscow burned out by Russians in 1812!

Girkin claims French guns are doing most of the job there. Do not know why.

It seems somebody somewhere reported that the island under firm RU control and cannot backpedal now. It looks like it is happening now in Donetsk area. Important RU targets are being hammered there now and RU looks like cannot do anything about.

May I suggest that UKR exaggerates losses not for West but for RU to lure them to continue fruitless assaults? Keep going Ivan, you are doing great, hitting that wall with your head, ignore your head wound the wall is about to collapse...

Interesting comment regarding General Kutuzov (Tuman) death. It seems Donbass field commanders like to lie to high command about the amount of infantry they have. [No surprise High command insists on continuing assaults] So, the high command started to request photo and video of attacking infantry right before an attack. Field commanders responded with fake photos putting non infantry troops together to look like full battalion. And after like 20-30 guys are off to attack. Tuman and other commander were send to investigate what is really going on. As soon as he arrived and got out UKR hit the column with Grads. I am frankly impressed with the field guys. They always find a way to bull**** superiors. Would not be surprised if they totally accidentally disclosed over unencrypted radios that big guy is coming. @Haiduk did your guys tried to buy arty ammo from them with dollars or something?

Thank you. I may be a pain to deal with sometimes - too many scars of brutal take-no-prisoners armchair fights on the Eastern Internet Front. But I am really trying to adjust and become a better person.

Vikhr only slightly outrange Starstreak. Also we do not know the real Starstreak range. OTH Starstreak is much faster and as result it can deal with Vikhr armed Helis much better than other AAs. AFAIK SS was designed to deal specifically with ATGM armed Helis.

[EDIT] Probably you are not aware but RU considered UK MANPAD Javelin as the most dangerous MANPAD of Afghan war and were really concerned about them.

Most likely RU aviation protection suites work well against RU own weapons. They test everything using first and foremost their own weapons. I believe what is needed is these babies. RU Tack Air relies heavily on unguided ammunitions dropped using Gefest. But for that they need to enter Startstreak range. Also LMM will handle Orlans perfectly well.

Had a spare time and checked interview of T-80 tanker from the tweet above and I think it is interesting. Author: — A question about the mobility of the tank: GTD [Gas-Turbine engine] – "hell for suppliers" or a thing? Are they reliable enough? Problems on the fuel march? Smooth running, shaking, acceleration in comparison with diesels. What are the main disadvantages of the T-80 BVM? Tankman: — It all depends on what role the tank group plays. As practice has shown, the speed of the "box" directly affects its survival. The T-72B and T-72B3 had very impressive losses during the battles in urban areas, while the group of the 80s lost only one tank in 3 months of operation. Of course, serving mixed groups is hell for rear echelon, but there is no need for them [mixed groups]. In the later stages of the operation, the machines were used for completely different tasks. There were no complaints about the reliability of the machines, they withstood more than they should have. The movement on the T-80 BVM is much quieter and smoother, which made it possible to carry out lightning attacks. The main drawback of the tank is an outdated thermal imaging sight on which any landfill makes excessive background noise, and high fuel consumption. Author: — Nuances in use? Ammunition? Was the ammo put only in mechanized laying [autoloader]? Typical composition of ammo (proportion: HE, HEAT, APFSDS)? Or were they filled in for a specific task? What type of ammunition was used most often? Is the main APFSDS still 3B42? ATGM — a suitcase without a handle or a really useful thing? Is it really possible to implement the "long arm" [feature] of our tanks in the conditions of combat in the current theater of operations [Not sure what he means as usually long arm of RU tanks is barrel launched ATGM with range longer than NATO cannons range, but given answer from tanker he might mean indirect long range cannon fire to counter NATO ATGMs]? Have you ever used it? If yes, then the nuances, reliability, were there any failures of guidance and what is their reason? From personal experience: what kind of ammunition would need to be modified or created? Tankman: — There have never been more than 10 shells in the armor [means inside tank]. From the experience of fighting around Donetsk airport, I know what happens to a combat vehicle when it is packed to capacity with ammunition. When a shell from an RPG arrives from the building above into the commander's hatch, the turret flies to the 3rd floor of the [Donetsk airport] terminal. Our counterparts decided to ignore this simple truth and were always packed to capacity, for which they were nicknamed among the [men of our] unit "lemming herd". There was nothing but Mango at the beginning of the operation, ammunition was spent so quickly that it was not possible to replenish it. As for the "long arm", I will answer as concisely as I can. You can, but it is difficult. It is extremely inconvenient to make a calculation in order to hit a hidden standing target (God forbid, also moving), and forces you to invent a bicycle on the spot, based on the terrain features. Concrete-piercing types of weapons are urgently needed, taking into account the NATO guidelines for the construction of fortifications. Author: — Observation. Did you perform any tasks at night? How does the commander conduct surveillance at night? How did the sighting equipment manifest itself? At what distances, on average, was it possible to detect the enemy? Tankman: — Performing tasks in the dead of night by armored formations is effective only when working from closed [hidden] positions. In an ideal scenario, if a tank group is advancing to the assault, it is better to do it at 2-3 o'clock in the morning and reach the point of the beginning of the battle by dusk. The sighting equipment is outdated, needs to be replaced. But for the fight against the tanks of the USSR, although modernized, this is not critical. Thanks to the infantry and the coordinated work of "Akhmat" [I think he means Chechen battalion Akhmat], we always knew where the enemy was and how he moved. Author: — General awareness of the situation. Connection. Communication in combat with an infantry unit? Were automated control systems used (according to the ESU TK type) or all only through radio communication? Tankman: — I'm not disclosing the communication details.[It may be because Comms are always real embarrassment for Soviet/RU army] Author: — Tank duels? Or are tanks not fighting tanks (with)[It is RU historical meme which caused a lot of arguments in RU mil history community]? Are there any problems with the defeat of enemy tanks? How do you assess the resistance of the T-80BV M to modern anti-tank weapons? What is the opponent's skill? Tankman: — Tank duels in this theater are very much in demand from our side, and we are trying to impose them. The superiority in reverse speed and the ability to enter the enemy's sides gives us the opportunity not to lose these duels at all ever. And since the Ukrainian tanks are completely packed with ammunition to the point of failure, you do not need more than one hit. As for resistance against domestic weapons — a solid 5 [top mark]. As for the Western ones, it is more difficult, since we did not give the opportunity to use them against us. But, it seems to me, tandem shells could be a problem for us, but there is always a good old grid [mesh armor] for this. Fortunately for us, competent Ukrainian tankers are gone, most of the experienced commanders and gunners were knocked out as a result of the fighting of the 14-15s. Author: — And the last question. How did the additional fabric screens perform [The egg shell armor but obviously he means working one not empty]? Tankman: — By the current moment, there are no more of them left on our tank. [RU Addon side armor packages are easily damaged and tend to fall off quickly] But, apparently, we were hit with something during the cleaning of the village of "Z.", and they saved us. Works.

RU tactical aviation cannot operate anywhere UKR dug in and because UKR dug everywhere RU Tac Air is weak everywhere. When Tac Air cannot support Land Forces the drone support is of critical importance. AZER Forces destroyed ARMEN Arty with drones (implying it was war winning tactics). ARMEN Soviet AA made AZER Air ineffective, but AZER drones got arty (implying ARMEN Soviet AA could not deal with AZER drones).[AFAIR it was RU-based AA, it looks like Girkin just do not want to admit RU AA have difficulty with Drones) RU extremely lacks recon drones. Very few strike drones (but more than they have recon drones but not by much). RU uses Caliber missile to do what US does with long range drones. It looks like sone Tochka U will be used in masses due to lack of other PGMs (may be exaggeration as Girkin got emotional) No comment regarding UKR shopping list - they look like they do not know what to say. There are some preparation for mobilization but it means nothing as there is no guaranty mobilization will be called. There is secret partial mobilization to make up losses. New formations are being made but there are too few of them. It is not a strategic reserve. For 1 Army HQ (there are around 11 armies deployed) there are 1.2 classical division as per number BTG/battalions. 100,000 additional soldiers will allow only match UKR numbers. RU RPO-A flamethrower (rocket propelled one) has real range about 100 meters due to accuracy. Still needs skilled shooter. Main fight happens with Arty and mortars. everything short ranges is more or less irrelevant. A RU general at Kharkiv asked his forces why they are running and not hitting UKR back with RPO-A (implying it happened during that famous RU collapse). They replied we are being hit with arty with much longer range. [Anecdote to show military incompetence and strange RU believe in magic of RU flame weapons) Girkin used to shoot with RPO-A once. Missed from 50 meters. Claims he could hit standing man target with underslung launcher from 50 meters. TOS difficult to use due to short range - lightly armoured, kills crew when hit even with mortar round. They do not know why RU command does not systematically destroy all bridges in Donbas area. Aviation cannot reach them due to AA. They do not know why Spetznas cannot do it. They believe it is due conspiracy. [Apparently both RU Aviation and Speznas suck] Girkin fuming that de facto there is no Flying Zone over UKR. He is claiming foreign planes deliver weapons directly to UKR. Claims there is conspiracy of sort. LDNR tries to block RU volunteers from joining LDNR forces. Probably to block spread of information that LDNR forces are poor and poorly controlled cannon fodder. RU grabing anybody they can for contract soldier but do not recall reserve officers - probably believe they have enough. They have enough regular officers and reserve officers could be politically unreliable. Ru main concern loyalty and not merit. There is not enough modern weapons. Kremlin is afraid of forming Ukrainian formations due to their questionable loyalty. They believe West will exterminate RU that why they must destroy Ukraine to stop being used by West to kill RU. [No comments] Operations take that long time because with current forces it is impossible to win (implying they are just prolonging the war). Lack of drones is because nobody cares in MOD and other GovDepts.[Where Girkin was last 20 years? On a different planet?] Girkin believe in due time UKR will start striking Crimea but he is not sure. RU did not surround Severodonets area before assault due to lack of forces. UKR are fighting back hard. When RU cut Artemovsk-Lisichans road UKR counter-attacked and pushed them back. Road is currently under RU fire only. UKR terrain is flat terrain cut by recess with rivers and creeks and there are a lot of agricultural roads around. In dry season very easy to put bridges over these rivers and creeks to make another fully usable road to bypass dangerous part. Because of that the supply of UKR group is not cut. Because supply is not cut UKR is not retreating from Zolotoe and Gorskoe to Lisichansk. Because of that the only way is to frontally assault them. Not enough forces to assault Slavynsk - tough defenses. It is large city agglomeration which needs to be assault from everywhere (implying not enough forces) RU offence continues not because they hope for success but because they need to show activity. [Remember I talked about Pressure Cooker?] Also because they try to fix UKR forces. Finally if it stops UKR from getting initiative (implying RU will go totally defensive if stops) Everybody already realized that current RU offensive cannot destroy UKR donbas group.[It looks like RU forces have to go defensive but cannot accept that and advancing where they can advance due to previous preparations. They simply cannot advance everywhere else even if it will yield better results) They do believe that RU is not fighting seriously due to Kremlin conspiracy They claim Brigadisation of RU army was to improve rebellion suppression capabilities of the Army. After some time it was canceled but they could not in time create enough proper divisions (Army HQ - divisions ratio above) It was better to advance toward Kharkiv. Had better chance of success with much worse moral effect for UKR. Current RU offensive did not give RU any strategic advantages except [Victory] reports on TV. They hope Slavyansk would not be attacked at all due to expected heavy losses. Without general cleansing of top RU command and government war cannot be won. But they will win anyway with or without Putin. I am off to bed. Write if you need to clarify anything. If i have time tomorrow I will check it.

Managed to watch Girkin/Kvatchkov video from Murz rant. I am putting my notes here. Sorry for dumping it like this and also for mistakes in translation. But I am tired listening them and taking notes. Unfortunatly I might not be able to do anything tomorrow or during the weekend. But I do not want to leave it till Monday. So, here it is. Disclaimer - take it with grain of salt. These guys are not like official 100% correct source. They might lie. They might be mistaken. I might got something wrong as well. I also cut political takes and anything I saw as unimportant. The most important - Ru offensive is already defeated they just kipping it going to fix UKR forces, keep initiative and for political show. UKR cannot penetrate deep and collapse RU defense due to RU aviation. RU aviation is only thing that keeps UKR from fast break outs (implying unlike defensive AA which is excellent, UKR mobile AA are not as good or they are lacking them or there is a problem). UKR morale is not as low as it might be seen from news with TD complaints. Cases of TD complaints are too few compared to the overall forces involved. Mostly because they were at the tipping spear of RU offensive and got hit hard by RU arty. UKR TD is equipped much better than Mobiks(mobilized) of LDNR forces. At Kharkiv UKR collapsed Luhansk Mobiks pushed till the border but now regular RU forces very slowly are pushing UKR back. UKR have really defeated formations (implying TD but maybe not) but too few of them and they will be rotated out of frontline and restored. Nothing out of the ordinary for big war. Some RU divisions have up 60% of refuseniks, especially from Kavkaz. Legal wise RU refusniks and even deserters are very difficult to prosecute without full war mobilization. Girking confessed during 2014 he took part in some "War time" trials which resulted in executions. They executed their own troops who committed serious crimes, marauders, and enemy war criminals [whatever that means]. Fuming UKR are more competent in maintaining Army moral and dealing with deserters. Claiming there is high chance that captured British nationals will get amnesty or will be exchanged. They are believing foreign nationals are coming for safari to hunt Russians. Currently UKR are mostly using French guns (implying for hitting Donetsk area) [probably due to a longer-range RU has difficulty dealing with]. All RU 152mm Msta guns are at main front (implying Severodonetsk). So they have difficulty dealing with long range UKR guns in Donetsk area. Too few satellites for recon. RU cannot provide air recon for CB due to lack of drones (implying Orlan). Looks like he is avoiding mentioning aircraft for some reason, may be because it shameful to admit that VVS failure as well. Mavic Drone cannot deal with arty for CB due to short range. Donetsk, Makeivka, Gorlovka and other cannot be unprotected CB wise (implying lack long range arty and drones in the area). RU forces cannot destroy UKR group in Donbas without major strategic reserves (implying currently there is none). Reserves are being prepared. But it will not be enough. They can only balance out UKR existing forces. LDNR cannot provide an additional 20 regiments of light infantry (capable of guard duty behind lines). Not sure what he means about additional - either he means RU is building force of 20 regiments and LDNR cannot match that or LDNR in the past provided 20 regiments and cannot provide any more. Only compensate losses. There is no more LDNR regular infantry. All Mobiks (mobilized) LDNR civilians morale - dissatisfaction is rising but it is holding because everybody know UKR are going to kill them. [Good example how Russian pressure cooker holds internal pressure for a longer period then western country with bat**** crazy propaganda] RU border regions are constantly attacked/shelled. Recon raids are becoming more common. Their morale is much lower. [RU regions less susceptible to RU propaganda] LDNR will rebel but only after RU territory rebel first. RU pilots report that flying lower than 2 km is a death sentence. Especially during the second run. That's why they have difficulty in using certain bombs like Vacuum bombs. Any RU aircraft is too valuable as only aviation can deal with UKR mechanized attacks in certain areas. UKR attack on Dayd Brode (Herson) was stopped with heavy losses by RU aviation. So, RU cannot bomb freely - too much of tactical AA which is sometimes superior to RU. UKR fortifications (implying east region) are too numerous and deep. They have sometimes three level trenches (I do not know what it is) Only in few areas there is smell of RU Aviation (including Helicopters) No UKR aviation (As I understood UKR aviation is not hitting RU frontline at least at east region) Heavy losses in Davidov Brody due to UKR forces getting out of AA umbrella. It was very dangerous break out.

RU cannot defeat even Poland but it can kill a lot of polish civilians. You do not want war with RU because they will make it extremely ugly especially when losing. Haven't noticed Big Guy preventing Europe deciding on anything with NATO. I do remember a Nato general from almost European but not exactly European country prevented US hothead general from having excessively fun party with Russians in Yugoslavia. Can Europe handle RU? Yes. Should it? No. We are talking about human lives. What's the point shooting yourself in the foot just to show you can do everything yourself? US scares the **** out of RU. Let's use it and live a happy quiet life discussing how life is strange in the US! I have heard a different version, but it is like RUMINT. I already got it. That's why I already had an awkward conversation with family and as soon as one RU foot stands on NATO territory off I go. I saw it. I experienced it. I do not want it in Europe.

Negotiation tactic. Why bother killing for negative consequences if they can just lock them up forever and have option to release in exchange for something when needed.

Sherman 75mm beat T-34-76 any day. Nothing to discuss here. In Soviet February 43 Tiger tests Sherman 75mm penetrated 80mm of the sides from 600 meters. Non of 76mm rounds could penetrate 80mm even from 200 meters. BTW, 76mm gun is the same as their main AT gun (which is not the same as their official AT gun of rifle divisions).

Due to secrecy, it is always difficult to know. But we can see certain trends. Kremlin power struggle is better view as Power Clans struggle than personalities struggle. Personalities can change any moment; Clans are very stable. There are three main Clans: KGB clan, Party clan and Military Clan. For example, in Death of Stalin you see KGB clan (Βeria) was fighting with Party clan (Khrushchev) but Party clan allied with Military clan (Zhukov) and won. Fast forward to the end of 90s. Due to Chechnia and Yugoslavia the Party clan (Yeltsin) politically got weak. They needed somebody young and strong. Due to some cunning maneuvers KGB clan managed to finally sneak a young and strong trojan horse (Putin) to Party clan and got power. As a result, KGB clan forcefully allied and further weakened Party clan (now with sort of Medvedev head). Then during Chechen war KGB clan allied with Chechen Joker (Kadirov) against Military clan. Finally, there is Russian Joker (Navalny) So, the current disposition is: Party clan (Medvedev) weak and mostly irrelevant. But tough guy rhetoric means he is looking toward alliance with hardcore nationalists. That is Military clan. KGB clan (Putin) currently controls everything but politically very weak due to Putin starting the War. Unless they scheme something, they will be out one way or another. Military clan (military junta). Real hardcore nationalist. Dumb, brutal, and angry that KGB clan made them fight real war as a result of which their reputation was flashed to toilet. Chechen Joker (Kadirov) - seemingly not very important Kadirov is in fact Putin most loyal ally against Military clan. Both Military and Kadirov hate each other due to atrocities during Chechen wars. Kadirov has his own small but well equipped and motivated military. But Kadirov hold loyalty only to Putin and has his own plans to achieve full Chechen independence. Russian Joker (Navalny) - the guy seems to have unnatural ability to survive where all others died. Even current imprisonment can be seen as making sure he survives until he is needed. This implies he is under KGB protection but most likely not under Putin but somebody else because of Putin's ego issues. My take is: Military and Party are allying. Medvedev is the Facade, Military junta is a real ruler. They are most likely close to power but probably cannot take out Putin. Putin is scheming to shift blame to military and finally cleanse them. Severodonetks can be a good place to bury Miliary. The more Military lose men and reputation the easier will be to clean them. In case of disloyalty there is a loyal Tik Tok guard. That is why they are not really fighting. Not their job. Somebody in KGB (Patrushev?) is waiting for Putin to die to activate Navalny so he can rise people against military like it was in august 91 then at least guaranty KGB clan survival. Everything hinges on Putin. That's why there are few men following him around to pick up his poo, so nobody can be certain. That is as far as I can go. I can speculate further but it will not be very reliable. Because for example Military clan is brutal dumb nationalists. That scenario is bad. Like really bad. On other hand they seems to ally with useless Party clan. Which means they are hoping to deal with the outside world. So, at the end they might be not as dumb and brutal as they were in the past and are not going to start WW3. Who knows. We will have to wait and see.

S-300 is capable against RU VVS.

The real Ronson was T-34 - unlike Sherman it has fuel tanks inside crew compartment. Panther had radically different ideology. Angling of upper front plate is like the only thing they have in common. But angling was not unique to RU. AFAIR French made it first.

But from Russia it looks like China is slowly pushing Russia down under the water, so it will drown faster. No, they are not. There is reason West is not doing anything similar. They are White Elefant for a show. Ru cannot match west Air forces to hide weakness every few dozens years RU is creating White Elefants. They do the same with tanks - Armata is similar White Elefant. Nope, we do not see it at Donbas. Divide 50,000 RU rounds per day by 900 Ru tubes. You will get 55 rounds per gun per day which is very close to 60 rounds. And 60 rounds is so called default ammo load for 152mm - it is their historical top for round expenditure per gun per day (they could shoot more for a short period but only with significant preparation period) That's not that big. Do not ask me. I am not American. No. Every Russian, even hard-core nationalist fears US conventional forces. RU government fears US Forces even more because they know lot more. I watched RU nationalists' reaction when Wagnerites confronted US forces in Syria. It looked as if USAF raped Wagnerites BDSM style. RU lost there last illusions they can deal with conventional US forces. Everybody respect Germans for what they are and what they are doing regardless of their military power status. But it not about military power. Rigth now EU has enough power to deal with RU without US. Poland alone can fight RU to standstill and most likely will defeat them alone. Ukrainians are doing it right now. It is about good guy mentality that led them to the current predicament with supply from Russia. That's why we all love Europe. With all the issues (they are not that big really) I consider it the greatest place to live peacefully. Still truth needs to be told that due to mentioned issue (remoteness from Russia) there is certain dynamic that will tear apart Pan-European alliance. Alliance with US is fundamentally better against RU.

I am not beating "old" Europeans. I am not saying you are bad guys who help Putin. On the contrary I am saying you are good guys. And this is the core of your problem. Being away from Russia you have no relevant experience/knowledge. As result you apply your good guy mentality to a problem that requires exactly the opposite approach. Your approach works with 99% of the problems. And that is great! Unfortunately, it does not work with 1 problem we face now. And that is why Pan-European Alliance will not work. Some problems require a different mentality. You are doing great with help of Ukraine. You are valuable Allies of Ukraine. Please forgive Ukrainians their anger - they are in the mortal struggle now. They are too emotional right now. We are all too emotional right now. So, if you think that I offended you i apologize profusely.

It is more like he thinks talking tough gives him a chance. Or he wants to be either part of the real nationalist governmental faction or at least get some favors from them. Like his life in case of future cleansing of the house. If it is true then we have real nationalist coup to deal with. EDIT Or he had a fight with his son who I think was resident of US. Or they got a very strong cocaine shipment. That is possible also.

The guy is being like this for some time now. Given he is pussy in reality this talk is puzzling. There is theory that he is doing it to look tough to be considered as Heir apparent.

T-34/85 did not appear until 44. For sufficient numbers at frontline we are talking about end of summer. Before that T-34-76 which was anything but nimble. Also it has worse gun, worse survivability and AFAIR had not enough crew members.

I do not. So far China showed itself as very unreliable partner. Which is worse than western one and China is acquiring Russian knowledge for like 30 years. The war (any war with Russia) stops the moment US declares involvement. Russians will just pack and leave and then will happily celebrate their honorable defeat. Your comment shows why any Pan European defense will never work. Having no relevant knowledge/experience "old" Europe cannot comprehend neither evilness of Russia not its weakness. That's why "old" Europe will always be tempted to sacrifice stupid eastern Europeans who do not understand that the war with Russia will be suicidal. Europe security must firmly be anchored on that guy over the pond.

Russia is unlikely to pull this off due to major Brain exodus. They are currently struggling just to replace sanctioned stuff.