Grigb

Definity a shift. Too much heat in conversation. Too much hothead reactions. The exchange itself is not a big deal. It is just a match (brilliantly played though by UKR). War exposed internal contradictions between RU government which uses nationalist rhetoric for its own means and significant portion of RU public for whom it is all real. If RU would be winning that would not matter much but they are not really winning. So, everybody is too emotional now, too unforgiving.

Not to overload with posts I will summarize last comments from "civilian Girkin" Kazakhstan is moving away from RU to Turkey. But Kazakhstan for RU is a bridge to other Asian previous USSR republics (he implies that RU influence over the whole region is being slowly severed and Turkey is growing) The only valuable endgame for Moscow now is for "old" Europe to push Ukraine for peace deal on Moscow terms. For that Moscow will use gas blackmailing to a full extent, prepare for full cut off. But the next one I will quote in full

Good! Murz rant is interesting because while it is captain obvious description it is coming from enemy mouth. BTW pay attention to what he want to say about RU AA level of competency.

Regarding Tyra exchange scandal Tyra is Azov linked civilian volunteer medic. She was captured escaping Mariupol when RU were encircling it (She was not at Azov Steel). It seems in her car there were two kids those parents were killed (I am using RU sources and they are a bit sketchy). RU being RU outright declared that she is Super Evil Nazi who killed those (implied Russian) kid's parents to use kids as means for escape. They basically sentenced her for a brutal death. What happened next is not clear but it appears a RU Chechen Mobster paid dozens of millions rubles to somebody higher up to make an exchange for his son who was in Ukraine. I do not know who came up with idea of exchanging Tyra but it was a brilliant move for UKR and extremely bad for RU. But RU corrupt guys being corrupt were dumb enough to think only about money probably because they hoped UKR will be quiet about exchange. UKR guys brilliantly declared that Tyra was exchanged but did not provide any serious proof. RU nationalists were flabbergasted at the news that RU government decided to release Super Evil Nazi RU journalists started asking their inside contacts about what is going on. They got semi-official reply calm down, nothing happened Tyra is still locked up. UKR closed the trap by releasing video of Tyra at home. RU journalists were extremely flabbergasted and released info that there was in fact exchange but not the official one but corrupt exchange for son of Chechen mobster. Following spontaneous combustion of nationalists butts I think was seen from Mars. it was so serious that Chechen mobster made video declaring allegations are fake, his sone is in Ukraine and all these journalists are at risk unless stop spreading all these lies. He literally called female journalist and threatened her. It did not help because nobody believed it. On the contrary it made things worse because not only was the exchange corrupt it looked like RU got nothing back, UKR untermensch easily screwed RU ubermensch. It is bad to be corrupt but much worse is to be corrupt loser who lost to despicable Ukrainians! Sensing big scandal RU government being RU government sent their propagandist to deal with the problem. And as you can expect from RU they managed to make it even worse because they basically said F*ck You, Nobody, it is none of you business, just shut up and go back to your peasant work. As result Nationalist combustions became so strong that had they real turrets they would easily win turret throwing competition. Yes, sometimes it feels like I am watching Death of Stalin 2 as TV reality show. Anyway, this scandal presented RU nationalist with huge problem how to explain what they just saw. It is not about corruption. It is about Propaganda and Moral High Group nationalist believed they had. The first explanation is obvious - RU government are pizdabols who cynically lied about Tyra. Given nationalist are on Glorious Crusade to Kill All Nazis the idea that the woman they were about to brutally kill is not Super Evil Nazi is scary. What else Ru government was lying about? The whole Glorious Crusade with a lot of blood spilled suddenly started to look very miserable. So, nationalists declared a second explanation - conspiracy that RU governments are in secret deal with UKR government. It saves Glorious Crusade but throw RU government under the bus - for RU helping Nazis is equivalent of being Nazi. Nationalists just got perfect excuse to refrain from further activities helping RU government. RU government urgently needs something to district people from very bad thoughts about Tyra exchange.

While I do not have experience with RU Navy historically it is the most screwed up RU force. It is constant embarrassment for RU. Regarding the current RU push - it needs to be seen in context of two ongoing UKR political victories. RU is suffering noticeable and highly embarrassing cracks in Donbass collaborators morale due to Donetsk shelling. Also, RU is suffering noticeable cracks in RU nationalist morale and loyalty due to the ongoing Tyra exchange scandal. Two Pressure Cookers (Donetsk area and RU home) started to display the first cracks and that greatly unnerves RU command. They desperately need something to mask their political failures. It does not mean both cracks will lead to open rebellion, but it does mean that the human base of RU is shrinking and UKR is growing because indifferent RU activists are good for Ukraine. For US guys, it is like hardcore voters are getting pissed off - they are not going to vote for other party anyway, but they might decide to stay home during an election ensuring other party victory. That's where we are heading right now unless RU pulls something out of it's butt.

No. Their sucess is directly related to Arty. They are shooting UKR out of defensive positions. No. Having more artillery is not enough. They are much less experienced, inflexible and rely on official equipment supply. As result they do not have enough tactical drones and do not experience integrating them with Arty. Well, it was like this in the past and as far as I understood it is unofficially was changing but to what extend I do not know. AFAIK They put there their Mobiks without support of much arty and their infantry specialist. You cannot be strong everywhere. Currently they left Donetsk without arty. We are seeing brutal fight of two evenly matched fighters. But they both have their own gimmicks and issues. In the case of LDNR they have high command issue because their high command is regular RU. And regular RU command is well, suck. But those who did not want to be under RU high command are long dead. Everybody else got the message. All successes were orchestrated by combined RU-LDNR arty and other fire support. All what Wagners, Naval infantry, VDV and other remnants were able to orchestrate is simply push there without running away. LDNR have difficulties with it. Their infantry specialist cannot be everywhere. I attached two maps few days apart. Red circle is where squad of LDNR routed UKR platoon (I translated description few pages back). Except it was not infantry but arty that routed UKR platoon. Also it would be good to check Mariupol battle, but I do not think there is a single convenient source. The way LDNR fought Mariupol defenders, learned and adapted is very interesting. It was bloody but they learned a lot of what they are applying now again UKR. But again the sources are sparse.

For sure RU elite are better on average. Regular infantry is also somewhat better on average after all LDNR losses. However, this war is not elite units war. Neither is it infantry war. In Donbas it is hard drone-artillery slog. Artillery and drone wise LDNR is far better due to sheer experience and much better flexibility + they have hard core infantry cadre who is on pair with RU elite. Ukrainian winter as not as extreme as you might think. Given proper preparation you can advance. It is actually better to do it in Winter than during Rasputiza season. Here is video from Debaltsevo battle.

Yes, but I meant that for 105 there is a job as well. Because the alternative is 120mm mortar which is even closer. Previously due to RU tactics I believed that 120mm is a must for infantry. But now RU said that 120mm mortar range is the issue. The RU guys were discussing carrying D-30 with the range like 15 km.

Interesting small tactical snippet. Do you remember talks to supply 105-mm L118 howitzers to Ukraine? They deemed as not very useful comparing to 155mm. LDNR guys, being much more flexible than RU army are discussing now what to do on static fronts. According to them UKR conducting small cross border raids there and it annoys hell out of RU. RU army being RU army doing the only thing they know how to do - suck. So, volunteers are planning to start there (or at least to try) Toyota war but with drones. Interesting bit though is they say even 120mm mortar is not enough. It is good but it is better carry D-30around despite all the problems. Thats' because currently it is all about arty fire and arty now is being done at max possible range due to all the counter-battery fire. Coming with mortar to arty fight is not wise. Both side will try to catch other guy's tube with drones. There for mortar armed Toyotas will not survive. And here comes 105mm - compact and light with comparable range. I hope UKR are getting 105 and will integrate them into "Toyota" units. We are entering a period of drone-artillery wars.

Found another interesting bit from civilian Girkin (It is infamous in Russia Anatoly Nesmian). While it is not about military I believe some pieces are interesting to get a feel about RU civil life. Tell me if you do not want it.

Small quote from civilian analog of Girkin regarding Kaliningrad blockade

New Girkin assessment

Respectfully disagree. These are not some buryats. Some buryats are regular RU forces that ran from Kiev. These are hardcore insurgents. Some buryants with toilets would not push UKR army to the edge of Severodonetsk. Some buryants with toilets would not force UKR army to shout for 1000 guns. These are not RU regulars, and while their command and support cadre is indeed mix of RU and UKR it makes no practical difference. We are talking about most experienced, cunning, and ruthless men RU who have years of experience of this front. LDNR is ISIS. RU regulars are like Asad army. They are different. But the end for all of them will be the same

That's not true. Currently there is secret directive to block fresh RU recruits from entering LDNR forces. RU more or less Hight HQs. Tactical commanders and support are LDNRs or "old" RU who fought here previously and have connections. One of the reasons Donbass is a hard slog is that while LDNR are weaker equipped they are much more motivated, much more experienced and much more flexible. Apart from cannot fodder infantry they are much more dangerous than we think.

You are talking about infantry cannon fodder. Yes, it is long gone. But officers and support staff is not that badly hit. In Kherson area Mobiks might run away back. But inside LDNR it is unlikely. Agreed.

Except Donbass area no. RU bad logistics barely capable of supporting RU forces in summer. In winter you can forget about guys holding the line outside of villages/towns. So, by the snow fall either RU pulls them out or everybody run in to villages/towns. In Donbass area though LDNR forces are on the home turf and survival wise they are much more experienced and capable. It will be tough, but they will handle it.

As i understood 40,000 comes from intercept. If it is true then most likely it includes all types of unaccounted boiz. Most likely an officer lost his nerves and started shouting over his phone that there could be as much as 40k killed. I do not believe RU generals really know where are all their boiz.

All of them understand that. The Leningrad siege features prominently in RU grievances about ww2. They will avoid thinking about it though without external hammering. But my thinking was more toward UKR Russian speaking collaborators in RU controlled territories. That will effectively destroy RU reputation. RU currently exploit image as the defenders from Nazis and that current war is war against Nazis. Public admission that they are Nazis themselves makes collaboration with them morally unsustainable.

Big propaganda mistake - In Russia famine as a tool is strongly associated with Nazis due to Leningrad siege legacy. Margo publicly admitted that RU uses famine as a tool just like German Nazis. Good Job, Beaver head! If I would be InfoOps guy I would hammer RU regime supporters mercilessly with this tacit admission of RU Nazism. They can run but they will not be able to hide from Nazi label from now on.

Rumors started to circulate about RU Black Fleet big raid toward Odessa. Says RU finally decided to get rid of UKR fleet remnants and that already multiple targets hit with missile targets at several UKR regions. I ignored them initially (i mean against what they are planning to fight? What remnants of the fleet?) but more and more RU started to pick them up. Saying that it might be cover for RU reinforcement of Island defenses against incoming UKR attack. @Haiduk any comments?

True. It is interesting indicator - when Kadyrov pull his troops then we will know the war end is in sight.

They will continue to fight at SD at least not to give UKR chance to move forces. But the intensity will be lower. I do not think they want to reinforce Kherson and Zaporizhya. Probably they try to do SD, Kherson and Zaporizhya with LDNR troops but will start new one offensive with Ru regulars - you remember Girkin said sometime ago that RU are forming new reserves. But we will see.

Talk big without any connections to reality is cornerstone of RU culture.

Kadyrov will not allow his little army be attrited. He will pull them long before that. Informally I believe he answers only to Putin and can leave the party whenever he wants.

DNR Minister of the Interior about current plans: So, LDNR reorganize troops for further offensive The goal of the new offensive will be buffer zone 120 km from LDNR region They hope to start it within the week Due to way he is speaking about other regions I got the feeling they are back to previous plan with big pincers to cut the whole east region. But we will see.