The Steppenwulf
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Posts
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Posts posted by The Steppenwulf
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7 hours ago, Huba said:
That's interesting. It was officialy stated that we "mostly" gave away the unmodernized ones. Anyway we had at most around 100 of R version, so technically the statement was still true...
Those that went to Iraq in the 90s as complete, or later as spare parts.
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Going back half a dozen pages, there was a discussion about options open to Russia now, which seemed to be restricted to basically two. The only realistic one of the two, proposed by Steve, was (ultimately) the bullet for Putin. Whilst I agree with this (I posted a couple of hundred pages back that this conflict would result in a 'pressure cooker' effect, where Putin runs out of road and the only thing that can change the situation is Putin's removal), there is however a third option, which I think would find the release valve and call time on 'Mexican stand-off'... on terms that might even be agreeable with Putin.
This is if Putin himself proposes to stand down in favour of a certain Dimitry Medvedev.
I find this course plausible since I think it allows Putin to bow out without disgrace (certainly avoids a 'meeting with a lamp-post noose') and might open the road for a complete reset on all issues, starting with negotiations and a far more amenable RF approach, underscored by most RF concessions on the table for discussion.
Of course the regime won't have changed but with Putin removed completely from the picture it would genuinely represent a step-change in everyone's eyes.
I think this is possible because Medvedev has the experience and the expertise to navigate Russia out of this mess, is highly respected by Putin (tipped as his protege 15 years ago) and has the respect of the West as an international operator and recognised as 'a man the west can do business with'. Putting Medvedev in power in place of Putin gives Russia all the tools to dig itself out of its current crisis and arrests the long term economic problems that Russia faces if it continues down its current path pursuing pariah status.
Goes without saying that the only condition of Putin's retirement would be no extradition of any Russians for war crimes. Hard pill to swallow for anyone hoping that Putin could face trial in the Hague, but it might be the only demand the west would have to give way on.
Given the mess that Russia is now in, this might be the only sensible option open to Putin, if he wants to save his own neck and still retain some sort of favourable legacy, certainly not one that is 'the leader who led Russia into the abyss'.
As for Medvedev, he's well understood to be a (compliant and patient) leader in waiting - he'll be taking over when Putin croaks anyhow.
I don't know, anymore than anyone else, what's in Putin's mind, but I do think he must be aware historically how authoritarian regimes frequently end when they find themselves in this sort of corner, and it equally must be dawning on him that this is quickly becoming a bad situation for the RF on all other levels, and perhaps existential for himself. Standing down, with the current regime otherwise intact, is the least worst option open to Putin. It might just be matter of time before he takes it. -
34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Yet not enforcing the draft isn't an option. He also can't have people thinking his regime will go soft on the dodgers.
Precisely!
Civil disruption may well be uncontained and widespread and state propaganda might not be able to deal with a crisis like this to continue controlling the narrative. This just adds to Putin's problems instead of its intended purpose; solving his manpower issue. -
23 minutes ago, asurob said:
The counter to this is that Putin has not declared war up to this point because he fears doing so will do... something he doesn't want. Not exactly sure, but something. Otherwise the failure to mobilize is completely illogical.
The problem anticipated is that national conscription is likely to have the vast majority failing to turn up for the roll call. Then it becomes a massive internal issue for Putin because failure to comply is 2 years in prison. Not exactly good publicity for your war when men are being rounded up and thrown in prison camps by the tens of thousands. The reality is that it becomes quickly unenforceable
It turns into a massive headache for a regime that is actually quite fragile. Its fragility is evidenced by the sheer amount of controls and restrictions being exercised over the population, extreme propaganda etc. Thus declaring martial law could signal the beginning of the end for the regime and explains why it is a huge dilemma for Putin, a real "Rubicon" event.
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UPDATE: Fireship4 has all the Kieme mods uploaded to dropbox and they are each listed by folder, you'll find post and link at the bottom of this thread. The MT-LMB 6MB (30 mm cannon) will be the one in the Rus strela-sthurm folder.
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@ThePhantom The Kieme mod folder containing specifically the Russian MT-LMB vehicles is in my dropbox here. Please confirm once you've grabbed it and then I can remove.
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Grenada - I recognised the year straightaway
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27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
There was another one from the north reported weeks ago which stated that something like 70 Russian soldiers had to be hospitalized. IIRC it was poisoned cake.
'Red Forest dust' - a highly sought after ingredient, and very special treat!
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@kraze Both womble's comments and mine should be read with the word 'ostensible' inserted into the lines about what Russia wants in terms of negotiating aims. We are fully aware that there is a difference between what Russia states, and what they really mean or want, but the points are still correct within the given context.
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7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:
Russian say we are "fascists", ok - then here our MG42... ok... M53 or MG3
'Remember this.... your old friend, "the Linoleum Ripper"!'
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The discussion points raised around a hypothetical cease fire/peace settlement are forgetting that Russia's predominant demand for settlement is that Ukraine be a neutral nation without any security guarantee - the counter demand of Ukraine for any such agreement.
If Russia is serious about any deal it will have to drop this demand and that would mean an acknowledgement of a strategic defeat for Russia and Putin. The overall aim of this conflict would be thwarted and Putin would be agreeing to it. This position is intractable presently and can only be settled if Putin is deposed or RA accepts defeat. -
39 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:
Of all the multitude of problems Russia has, there's major one that's at the root of all Russia's failures so far... lack of infantry.
Indeed - back to the "manpower" problem!!
It was clear 4 weeks ago that Russia did not have the troops to continue this war without a radical rethink about the solution. Russia's best units have suffered serious degradation in combat power, or others are successfully tied up by Ukrainian's defensive set up in Donbass.
And it's all well and good for the RA to bring more and more tanks and heavy weaponry into theatre, but who is going to operate that equipment at the level of effectiveness that is required? Once this battle starts I cannot see the Russians being able to develop the kind of sustained assault, with the commensurate level of organisation and cohesion that will be needed to seize and hold positions deep in the UA rear with such impaired numbers of trained personnel to prosecute it.
Once the cohesion cracks and splinters it will likely shatter because, on evidence, most of their troops do not have the heart to dig deep and fight hard, but the Ukrainians do and that will undoubtedly show. -
18 minutes ago, Kraft said:
The argument makes no sense.
I think that's a misunderstanding, I read BeyondTheGrave' comment as sarcasm.
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10 minutes ago, db_zero said:
Ukraine not only produced wheat but also potash and fertilizer prices have gone through the roof.
A lot of the fear is based on the supply disruptions that took place resulting in the Arab Spring.
One thing is for sure wheat and fertilizer has spiked we’ll just have to wait and see.
I know it's not third world but FWIW the price of fertiliser in UK has been rising 10% month on month. It's an underlying factor in a huge inflation ramp along with the more commonly known price hikes such as cost of a barrel of oil. I think also UK at least relies on pest control chemicals from Ukraine, without these, yields will be impacted pushing up prices further for the consumer due to supply/demand.
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44 minutes ago, OldSarge said:
"Apr 14 1200 UTC UPDATE: According to Russian official statements issued by MoD, MOSKVA is still afloat, attempts to tow cruiser to Naval base in Crimea are under way. All crew evacuated to other Navy ships, says MoD. Ukraine insists cruiser sank or sinking. A post in social nets, posted obviously, by seaman, claims 54 MOSKVA crew were rescued by nearby Turkish tanker (there is Turkish tanker nearby, according to AIS data). A mess of information, misinformation and disinformation, of truth and fakes. "
This was the first statement they put out at midday and was in contradiction to reports from UKR that it had already sunk. Then there was a MoD update later in the afternoon admitting it had finally sunk.
The earlier statement if untrue was probably put out with intention to not cause panic amongst members of public with relatives and friends on board, it's not yet sunk gives the impression that there was time to evacuate, all was not lost.
Remember that the media is trying to do its best to hide the true number of casualties in this conflict. "It went down in 7 minutes" is not in keeping with this media strategy. -
6 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Are they just going to have remain 150 miles from the Ukrainian controlled coast for the rest of the war?
I'm sure max range of the Neptune is around 300km, so that's a considerably greater 'stand off' from the UKR coast.
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Yup officially sunk: https://ria.ru/20220414/kreyser-1783626130.html
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13 minutes ago, panzermartin said:
Yes I don't really understand that about the chips shortage. China can provide these (and other stuff) without anyone noticing. 6 huge transport Y 20 landed in Belgrade the other day with weapons, nothing really happened except warnings to Serbs.
Those weapons were delivered under a supply contract agreed sometime ago. They were just delivered ahead of the agreed supply time, which is a matter between Serbia and China. What Serbia might want weapons now for, is another question - we know they have an ongoing dispute with Kosovo and the latter have raised their concerns about the possibility of Serbian aggression whilst the west has its focus elsewhere.
Regardless, for reasons provided above, this is false equivalence with respect to supplying Russia with microchips 'without anyone noticing'. -
11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:
We hear that an entire security branch was jailed/sidelined. Generals being imprisoned. At first one might say "punishment for incompetence". But the numbers that are being reported seem to indicate Putin is purging based on fear of these power centers staging a coup. He may or may have evidence of coup planning, but high level purging is a big indicator of serious problems at levels close to Sauron's idiot twin.
+ 1 Exactly what I was thinking when Desert Fox reported it a few pages back. Kremlin claims the 'purge' is due to generals embezzling funds earmarked for military. Sure it could be that, but given that this is the official sort of line we'd expect to hear suggests it's something they actually don't want us to know (if it was incompetence - why not state it? ). So it does smell very suspiciously more like dissent or even a plot of some kind.
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I bet no one dare wake Putler to give him the bad news
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25 minutes ago, The_Capt said:
Actually at the end of the day we are a wargaming community with deep interest (and some expertise) in the history of warfare. This is the first peer-on-peer conventional war of the 21st century and likely he most intense since the Iran-Iraq war back in the 80s, so you can understand why it is kind of a big deal.
As to the games, no small amount of effort you see here is to try and figure out how to make CM more realistic, particularly the modern titles. So let’s call this game design in contact.
Finally we are about analysis and assessment that cut through a lot of the noise out there, so we have seen a lot of people migrate here because we try and remain unbiased- as far as we can as we stand with Ukraine on this one- and offer a different picture than a lot of mainstream military analysis. Moreover, we will toot our own horn as we have been noted as out in front of events thanks in large part to information sharing and a robust online debate.
We are also on the internet and get whackies, which have been warned and in some cases banned.
That all said, do not worry BFC is still in the gaming business but right now they have their eyes on this history in the making. They (and “we”: check out CMCW while you are in the gift shop!), will be back to making the game series you love shortly but right now the best good we can do is try and keep a clear eye on things and keep each other informed while supporting those of us in the middle of all this.
I think this is very generous. I just reached for the dislike button - for the first time ever on the BF forum - and realised there isn't one!
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11 minutes ago, Kinophile said:
BREAKING
Russian cruiser struck by Harpoon and on fire in Black Sea.
No surely - not?!
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1 hour ago, danfrodo said:
When the Russian public starts to see real shortages, even heavier inflation, their sons dragged off to war, will they still support this mess? And if they don't, as I've said before it all comes down to "will the soldiers shoot?" -- against thousands of protestors in the streets. If they shoot, Putin hangs on to power. If they don't, he hangs on a lamp post.
I'm not sure that this is where it starts, or even ends.
I mean maybe, but Russia is made up of so many disparate regions with a lot of complex and internal self interests. When the economy is breaking down and the Govt is still embroiled in a conflict, growing costlier by the day, the internal tensions develop and the self-interests become ever more magnified. Because of the authoritarian need to control everything, in this scenario, it's predictable that the Kremlin would just be overwhelmed firefighting all these collective problems, struggling to hold together any semblance of a cohesive nation.
So my thought is that the longer this conflict continues without a ceasefire the more likely the internal tensions develop and a Govt that looks increasingly out of control. In this situation, I'd suggest there's likely only two end paths. Either the 'enduring painful conflict' collapses because the military will is no longer there, think Eastern Front 1917/18 - and where did that lead to - or else the writing would already be on the wall approaching that sort of critical crisis point and Putin is removed by either (relatively) peaceful or violent means from within the Kremlin.
Presently though we are a long way out from this, just that all the conditions are beginning to fall into place for a typical sequence of events like this starting to unfold. It makes sense that Putin will be getting twitchy to wrap up this conflict asap, like in the next couple of months, latest before next autumn, beyond that the prognosis for him will start to look really bad I'm sure. -
1 hour ago, akd said:
From the article:
QuoteDecisive action is urgently required to tip the balance between a costly success and a calamity.
The costs of failure for the West are pretty high, the costs to Ukrainian nation could get a lot worse yet, regardless of their chances of victory.
And:QuoteThe war may get worse. If the Russians use chemical weapons, the United States should rethink its unwillingness to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
I know some on this forum are all for US/Nato intervention (even if just imposing a no fly zone) and I respect that view, but I stand on the side of thought that the west's strategy; that is, management of escalation, balanced against ensuring that Putin is defeated, is the prudent one.
Clearly though the dial has moved somewhat as we enter a new phase of the war. But equally at this juncture, Putin has also given the West an excuse to now recalibrate the balance of their strategic approach. I reason this because obviously we now know about war crimes; the murder of civilians in Bucha etc; use of cluster munitions in Kharkiv; and (with some assumptions at this stage) the use of a chemical weapon in Mariupol. In light of this, the best most immediate and effective response, but retaining the balance of both escalation and necessity to support Ukraine to maximise a Russian defeat, is for the US (by hook or by crook) to get those Polish MiG 29's into Lviv.
I know I'm repeating my own post here from 300 pages and 3-4 weeks back, but this move in my view is now the most proportionate response (if it wasn't before), and it's a move at a critical point in this conflict (as per the article and as we all aware) where it could be most effective to bring about a Russian defeat.
I also considered the possibility that this action could give Putin an excuse to attack Poland, but I think that's highly improbable, given article 5 and the fact that Russia has not attacked UK, Germany or anyone else who has supplied lethal assets - those countries have already tested the water and Putin has done nothing. I can only conclude that Putin would be stumped for a response and would just have to suck it up.
EDIT: Just saw @DesertFoxpost about the Slovakian MiGs. A very apt coincidence. We'll add those to the offering too. That makes 40 in total.
A list of WimO's (a.k.a. Kandu's) CMBN creations
in CM Normandy Maps and Mods
Posted
+ 1 - I looked also and couldn't find hardly any of the scenarios. So much content here, I'd be like a kid in a sweet shop.
It would be fantastic if there were independent links to each of one these scenario files on TSD3.