Raptor341

It was truly infuriating to hear from frustrated Ukrainian artillery officers that the Russians were massing with near complacency across the border knowing that the systems with the range to hit them were not allowed to do so. All they could do was watch. A truly stupid restriction set by America that has cost Ukrainian lives for no good reason. Thankfully its been clarified at least. I imagine it wont be long until we see geolocated GMLRs rockets striking some juicy artillery targets inside Russia in due time. 

Excellent video I must say.

Some of my own thoughts and responses.

Kreminna is probably close to some of of the roughest terrain for tank usage around, not to say they cant be used but yeah, very close quarters so this outcome is not exactly a surprise. To me even with the loss of a tank, they are still performing exactly what their intended role is: to spearhead a push and provide supporting fire to blast the infantry onto target. Outside of major mechanised movements this is the quintessential purpose of a tank in its form. Given the infantry make it into the Russian trenches and succeed in their assault, I view that as a success, especially as the crew of the tank reportedly survive.

If they did not have tanks at all in the assault its fair to argue that more men are liable to become casualties. As a rule of thumb, steel always saves on blood and sweat. You can even hear the Ukrainian soldiers seem pretty happy / confident that they have two tanks supporting them on this assault. Having that level of firepower for a small assault is pretty damn good to have and its clearly good for their morale!

The RU infantry in the meantime clearly have the opposite issue and are focussing their attentions on the tanks, which gives the  UA infantry the opportunity to act out their own mission. Is it not possible the defending Russian infantry might have been a bit more active and able if they were not suffering the significant emotional event of having tank fire directed at near point blank range at them?

The other big observation is, what would you use instead of the tank in this situation? Any other vehicle is going to be lighter and even more vulnerable to anti tank fire. To have nothing in support means your infantry are assaulting a trench position without any vehicular support. That is always an even bloodier outcome in most cases. To me, the issue here if there is one is that the poor bastards are having to use pretty old tanks. One wonders how much better the tanks would fare with thermals made in the last generation at least for instance. Not to mention that this seems more the perfect reason why something like a functioning APS system on a tank is so important. 

At the end of the day, the Ukrainians (and people in general for war really) are using what they have. 

Source: NATO Parliamentary Assembly supports Ukraine's right to hit targets inside Russia using Western arms (KyivIndependent)

More images of improvised protection on the M1s in UA service. Curious that we are seeing more of these now. Possibly the result of experience of frontline action?
 
 

See there it is. That right there tells me you are not Ukrainian at all.

Obvious to see that thin veil of contempt you have for Ukrainians daring to fight against an invading country. Also hilarious to suggest that Ukrainians 'retreat from a real fight' after literally fighting for years against the Russians. What is up with this crazy idea that Ukrainians are somehow not fighting properly yet Russia is unable to gain much ground at all (After losing over half of their initial gains since the invasion) You do realise that your propaganda makes no sense right?

Just like they did in Feb '22...seriously, we kicked MAGA nutjobs out of here for less than this.

Do you realise that out of an entire population, "a few of them" could easily be tens or hundreds of thousands of people ?
You're effectively saying that accepting a level of mass murder is the way forward. And that also doesn't equate with "if they stop resisting, the bloodshed will stop".
That's just mad thinking, if not propaganda. Cheers, I'm out.

According to pro Russian propaganda, the AFU has been in a 'critical' situation for years and yet nothing has really happened. This is literally just conjecture. 

I have been a long time lurker enjoying this thread for years and I just cannot sit by and watch a clear propaganda account spout such rubbish. I know several Ukrainians who would literally punch you in the face for suggesting that Ukraine 'should just surrender man' after the disgusting acts committed upon them. 

You claim Russia is 'fixing' its corruption when in reality its just one faction cleaning out the other. Both are neck deep in said corruption all while while new stooges are brought in. They arrested general Popov who was specifically trying to point the many flaws in the Russian military system last year (And got fired for it) and seemed to be one of the few who actually gave a damn about the lives of his soldiers. 

Russia is not fixing anything, they are just assigning fall guys and pretending nothing is wrong. 

Ah, I know this tactic.  Try to show the admin is banning any dissenting opinions and that we are nothing more than a cult.  Nice try but BFC Admins have been very generous on this thread…to a fault at times.  

lots of EU related defense news, one thing that is satisfying to see is the leadership of smaller EU countries is quite nice to see. 
 

maybe we should move on,
 
 

New batch of YPR-765 from Netherlands, equipped with more protected combat modules.
These Cold War YPR/M113 showed itself as perfect "combat taxi" - cheap - without surplus high-tech features, well-protected, well-offroad and with proper space inside for equipped soldiers. We need hundreds and thousands of them. 
 
 

Well you missed another attack on an airport. 
https://mastodon.social/@MAKS23/112473360484915234
 

Above is one of the clearer examples from WW2, bad weather and bad choices had bad results, the war went on. The bombers came back the next day with a better visibility and a better plan. The breakout that resulted pretty much went all the way to Rhine.
In the current conflict at least 5%, and perhaps a multiple of that, of the Russian Air Force's casualties have been friendly fire. I am sure they aren't happy about it, but they haven't had the sense to quit and go home, yet at least. Even the Ukrainians have lost a few planes to friendly fire. Brave men get in the cockpit every day and go out again anyway.

First of all there are no truly reliable methods of ensuring civilian safety in an active combat zone, there never have been. There are armies and nations that try to be discriminate, and armies and nations that don't bother. But perfection in a peer to peer shooting war where both sides are jamming and obscuring everything they possibly can, in any way they can think of is unattainable. The expression that there is no such thing as friendly artillery is about as old as anything that deserves to be called artillery.
The thing we aren't talking about enough is that there are degrees of jamming, and degrees of control. A live video going one way, and second by second flight commands going the other are by far the situation with the highest requirements for consistency and fidelity. As soon as anything less than that is required all sorts of intermittent communications options become viable. A the very simplest level you send out a first wave of drones to engage the very front line of enemy positions. You simply tell that first wave to self destruct or take whatever its current best target is, or simply hit a set of coordinates that was thought to be relevant at a specified time. So now, even in a 100% jamming environment your other forces are clear to proceed to their first phase line. At the next level up you have expendable transmitters that can broadcast a short but very high power signal to tell your drones to change kill boxes, and can even have a safety that any drone that doesn't receive a signal by the time specified crashes /self destructs. And the variations go on forever, but all of them are vastly more tolerant of reduced bandwidth than needing full time video one way, and full time control signals the other.

Russian TG first time for today directly meant name of targeted ship - missile corvette "Tsyklon" of pr. 22800 Karakurt-class
MRK (rus. acronim "small missile ship") "Tsyklon" being hit
Information from the source. Requires further confirmation
This night 19/05/24 a missile strike was conducted at MRK pr.2280o "Tsyklon" in Sevastopol port.
The stike was conducted with two ATACMS ballistic missiles.
 Because of strike 6 BSF servicemen were killed, 11 wounded
The ship had been sunk

On the photo corvette "Tsyklon" - she was a single ship of this class in BSF active service  since comissioning in July 2023 from five of this class - three are still under construction, the fourth "Askold" was badly damaged by missile strike in November 2023.  
Karakurt-class corvettes can carry 8 cruise missiles "Kalibr" or "Onix" (in perspective "Zirkon")

Repelling of mass Russian armored assault of Novyi microdistrict in SE part of Chasiv Yar. About 20 BMDs and MTLBs with infantrty participated in this rush. Most were destroyed
Russian TG of some VDV unit

Russian milblogger Callsign OSETIN complains about lack of artillery shells on Kherson direction and about insufficient supply of Kornet ATGM missiles. Missiles for Fagot ATGMs also in deficite and those, which are supplied from old Soviet-time stocks already reject to launch. But he says they have enough Metis ATGM missiles, though their short range don't allow to strike distant targets on some islands and right bank.

  

It's claimed the photo of Russian minesweeper, burning in Engineer Bay of Sevastopol. Alas, bad quality. One source says the hull of "Kovrovets" already has towed to 13th ship-repair plant
Several hours ago Russian TG "Maritime power of the state" has posted this:
Concerning either hit Ukrainians at "Kovrovets" or not or at other ship will become clear soon. We wait
We waited.
They are unteachable as is. 
And this is not minesweeper, alas 
 

 
Some sources say missiles may hit other Russian ship "Tsyklon" - newest missile corvette of pr. 22800 Karakurt-class. She stood reportedly in Kurinaya Bay of Sevastopol

I am so tired of this entire line of thought.  Sure the UA has legacy Soviet doctrine but 1) what is wrong with Soviet doctrine - there is a huge assumption that Soviet doctrine was ineffective and somehow did not know how to manoeuvre, which is patently false, and 2) And ignores the other factors staring them in the face that are making large scale manoeuvre impossible.
This is straight up western arrogance built on a foundation of ignorance.  Until someone from the Pentagon can explain how we would successfully operate under the same conditions (no air superiority, ISR every where) using “mission command and manoeuvre” of course.  Did anyone ask the Ukrainians why they are using fires first?  Did anyone stop to wonder why manoeuvre has failed for the Russians as well?  Nope, too easy to blame it all on “Soviet-era” doctrine.  This “us-centric” analysis is frighteningly similar to what European observers of the US Civil War walked away with…and it cost them dearly.

"Modern" attack helicopters are completely obsolete. People have just spent so much money on them over the years that don't want to admit it just yet. Between cheap, expendable, and VERY soon autonomous drones, and things like the later models the Israeli spike missile that have a ~40km range, it makes zero sense to invest in expensive helicopters. At least the U.S. canceled the program for a next generation model.
The Russians got good use out the Ka-52s last year because of all the things NATO would bring to this fight that Ukraine didn't have. Good airborne radar at the right range is just one of MANY of those capabilities. They were also using the helicopters because they were they only thing in inventory that could fire their very best long range ATGM. I don't think anyone else is going to make that mistake again for a while. Whatever you want to say about the helicopter it is a very good missile. Ukarine is lucky tey don't more of them on more platforms.
These are smart motivated people, but at the same time this third year engineering student stuff. They are throwing large amounts of semiskilled labor at the problem to get thee production they need. For Ukraine, at this moment, this necessary and appropriate.
So a lot of discussion about drone costs. A new Iphone costs less than $2000, by even the most pessimistic assumptions. It has an approximate infinity of processing power, and three great cameras. There is just no reason for the brains of a drone to ever cost more than that. so even if all the other bits, including a nice tandem/EFP warhead come out to $5000, you still have a DELUXE FPV drone for $7000. Except it won't be FPV, all the operator will have to do is confirm the coordinates of the kill box, and pull the safety on the warhead. 
The Pentagon needs to invest in the drone equivalent of a Gigafactory to make them by the tens and tens of thousands. And  they need to have a come to Jesus conversation with the defense industry about the way they get paid. We can afford to overpay somewhat for hardware engineering and development that works. Getting overcharged on a per piece basis is just not viable anymore.

TheRevolutionReport   @TheRevolutionR1 · Follow UKRAINE IS LEARNING VIETNAM WAR TACTICS The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine adopted the tactics of the U.S. Air Force during the Vietnam War to destroy air defense systems on the front line. A tactic called “wild weasel” is when pilots allow enemy air defense… Show more    
10:44 AM · May 13, 2024    
 
 
 
 

Another Su25 shot down. Fourth in the last 2 weeks.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.bsky.social/post/3ksro7gnvaa2z 
 

Few points on EW - it has been effective in this war in eroding unmanned systems range and effects, but it likely won’t in the next one.  First off EW is very “loud” as one is basically pumping a bunch of EM into atmo.  These basically look like giant beacons to ISR designed to pick this up.  So in a peer conflict where one side is not being starved of long range precision fires, EW systems are going to be hunted by other systems.
But we know it has not been effective enough.  EW has bought neither side an ability to regain freedom of manoeuvre for mech forces.  So while it can erode UAS it cannot achieve denial or superiority.
And then there is autonomy.  No matter how many videos get posted people still have a block on this one.  UAS in the next war are all likely to have levels of full autonomy.  Whether it is complete or partial, no military is going to leave its unmanned arms vulnerable to falling out of the sky just because someone turns on EW.  Right now the UA has a bunch of civilian UAS they have repurposed to effect but a war in 5-10 years is going to see widespread us of fully autonomous systems…why?  Because everyone is watching this war.  Industry is going to explode in these areas because the advantages are simply too high.
So basically in this war we have a bunch of drones bought online with RPG7 rounds gun taped to them pulling off a 20% success rate (which is damned high) in what is likely one of the most potent EW environments ever.  The fact that some are looking down noses at the fact it takes more than one strike for these systems to kill a multimillion dollar tank shows how upside down we are here.  These systems are not only working, as challenged as they are, they are shaping the battlefield.  No large mech concentrations.  Tanks staying back 10s of kms right next to tac aviation.  When we actually see a tank shooting another tank it is a rarity to be highlighted, which is nuts from what we envisioned modern warfare to look like even 3 years ago.
UAS are not a fad, they are breaking war as we knew it…and frankly we should have seen it coming.