DreDay

Please discard my double-post. Still trying to master the UI here. Is there any way to delete your own posts?

Steve, I think that we can both agree that there is no single information sources on either side that can be relied on for comprehensive and truthful coverage of the military actions in East Ukraine. In the absence of such, the best thing that analysts like you and I can do is to aggregate multiple information streams and mediums, rate them for their accuracy and relevance and look for common trends. With such methodology one absolutely cannot discard the interviews with actual battle participants; they certainly cannot be taken as a primary source of information; but they are quite relevant and important nonetheless… Guilty as charged sir. I would love to go back and re-read some of your earlier posts when my time allows for it. I certainly don’t claim to have any better sources than you do (or any better analytical skills for that matter); with one notable exception – I am lucky enough to have reading comprehension of both Russaian and Ukranian, which allows me to get a lot of the information streams that are simply not available in English. Fair enough. As I’ve already said, I would love to go back and re-read some of your earlier posts when my time commitments allow for it. We will take it from there when I am up to speed on what you have claimed earlier Of course, every country operates on the similar propaganda principlez at the war time. Ukraine is not unique in it by any way. Yet, when this propaganda is completely invalidated by the actual events on the ground that tends to be a major failure on both militarily and political scale. That is what I saw happening in Debaltseve and that’s why I had made my points about it. With all due respect sir, you are really fishing here and letting your basses get the best of you (in my humble opinion). The Ukrainian units in Debaltseve could not get any relief force into the area, nor could they supply their garrison there with enough ammo and supplies to survive the rebel onslaught. They had ended up fleeing. Some units did it in a skilled organized way, while others had to run for their lives with no support or command while taking huge losses and abandoning their equipment. You are welcomed to call it whatever you want, but it does not make the plight of those misfortunate units look any better…. I generally agree with most of what you say here. There rebels did fail in their efforts to close the pocket at its bottleneck despite their original intention to do it. I have no idea how “badly” they were beaten as I have not seen any remotely credible numbers on that, but the fact stands – they had failed in their original operational objective. Luckily for the rebels, and unfortunately for the Ukrainians, the DNR/LNR forces (most likely under Russian operational command) kept probing the defensive perimeter until that had found the weak spots (like Uglegorsk) that had allowed them to block the Debalseve garrison and to establish fire control over the pass ways to it. Ukranians had tried to counterattack those areas, but were stopped. At which point Debalseve absolutely had to be evacuated to avoid a complete a complete surrender. Supposedly that was Putin’s proposal to Petroshenko at Minsk-2. At the time Petroshenko had insisted that his forces have enough strength to hold Debalseve and to clear any blockade of it. I am in position to blame him, but in hindsight he was wrong and his actions had cost a few hundred Ukranian soldiers their lives. I am guessing that their objective was to clear a major strategic area that was used to shell Gorlovka (which took a horrific toll on local population btw) and could be used as a staging point for attacks to cut off Gorlovka and even Donetsk. It was also to “liberate” a major city that they consider to be theirs and to cause as much destruction of Ukrainian hardware as possible. In the end all of those objectives were met, but probably at a higher cost than the rebels had expected. For the record - I am not claiming it to be so much of a great victory for the rebels (except for their actions in Uglegorsk where I have been very impressed with their planning tactical opps there); but rather yet another embarrassing defeat for the Kiev government (which in theory should have had all the means to fight off the rebel offensive) No argument here sir. This is not a turning point by any means. Not sure that I get your joke sir. Do you happen to have any credible evidence of any significant number of Russian regulars fighting around Debltseve? If so, I would love to hear it…

Please discard... wrong thead.

You make a lot of good and reatonal points sir, but the reality (as oftern is the case) condriticts that rationale quite a bit. The VDV units had actually perfromed quite succesfully against armored (T-72) Georgian formations in the war of 8.8.8. Their answer to Gergian firpower advantage was to pound them with ZU-23-2 fire that had stripped georgian tanks of all the sighting equipment and set their defensive perimeter on fire. Of course such tricks would not work nearly as well against US forces, but it just goes to show how lightly armed, but well trained and highly motivated forces tend to overcome the firepower advantage of less capable foes.

Lol! Pealse don't take me the wrong way, but it did take me a couple of tries to figure out where your question was headed Besides all the versions of BMDs (including BTR-D and 2s9) they also use 2s25-SD Sprut tank destroyer, and they are currently testing out a new Rakushka personel carrier as a replacement for BTR-D and an overall mounted weapon platform.

I am not quite sure what makes you say that, but let’s save that discussion for another day if you don’t mind… Please do sir. There are quite a few interviews/articles by the survivors from Ilovaysj and they all seem to be consistent on that sequence of events. Meh… we are talking schematics here. If you want to call it “humiliating” I will not lose any sleep over it. The biggest difference that I see is that Slavyansk defenders were completely outgunned by the surrounding Ukrainian forces and that they were able to retreat in good order (besides the rearguard of course) and to go into battle around sector D almost right away. Oh I don’t know, perhaps because the rebels consider Slavyansk to be their land, while the Ukranians from outside of Donbass don’t feel the same way about Debaltseve... Is that really that hard to comprehend? I have no idea why you keep focusing on rebels claiming superior morale and conviction over their opponents. Had the Ukrainian forces not claimed the same? For that matter, has any fighting force in all of military history not tried to make the same claim. Yet, you only seem to hold it against the rebels, which I find a bit peculiar (to put it politely) It’s pretty elementary – Russian military supplies were quite limited till the end of summer and rebels were basically made up of a collection rag-tag disorganized and untrained formations; so yes, even an extremely incompetent Ukrainian army was still vastly superior to them. That’s probably a part of it; although like most other Russian covert ops there, we would not know for sure for a while. However the battle for Izvarino had involved the border check-point switching hands multiple times and most of the fighting had occurred around the road leading from it to Krasnodon, which was not easily accessible to Russian artillery. Marinovka was infact re-captured by the Ukrainian forces, but rebels had kept the control of strategic heights around it which had effectively allowed for the encirclement of sector D formations and their subsequent destruction. Which btw, was a huge and largely underestimated blow to ZSU that had started a domino effect of other units getting demolished as their flanks/rear got exposed and no reserves were available. If by “contested” you mean elite Ukrainian VDV marching columns riding into it and getting slaughtered by a hastily assembled rebel force, then your definition of "contested" is very different from mine. I would be curious to see what evidence you can produce of Russian involvement Shakhtersk. I have seen no indication of it whatsoever, so please forgive me for being a little skeptical…

I don’t quite get your point here. I have seen quite a few disparaging statements about the morale of regular (conscripted/mobilized) ZSU army units. Are they just propaganda – perhaps; is it surprising – not at all. However when it comes to ZSU and National Guard equipment and supplies, I have only heard the rebels say how they are completely outnumber and outgunned… Interviews with the surviving officers from 128 mountain brigade and 42 territorial battalion seem to paint a very different picture. Have you had a chance to examine/translate them or are you just relying on Ukranian TV coverage and Poroshenko’s words? I am willing to bet that you have absolutely no knowledge of the actual rebel and Ukrainian casualty figures, and are simply relying on selective analysis and wishful thinking. For that matter I don’t have those numbers either, but I simply don’t accept your argument here as I strongly question your procession of any reliable information on this subject. Again, I fear that you are letting your wishful thinking get the best of your otherwise rational analysis here. The Ukrainians had claimed that Debaltseve was never surrounded and that everything was hunky-dory there up until the very day that their forces (or rather the few lucky ones that had such opportunity) ran for their lives out of it. They had absolutely failed to master up any successfully counter attacks to retake key positions around it or to secure the passage ways out of it. They had to leave/destroy a significant portion of their weapons and equipment there, as evidenced by multiple video and photo evidence. Hundreds of their soldiers were killed in attempts to relieve it and subsequent attempts to escape from it (again as evidence by plentiful video evidence and interviews with the survivors). They had lost an important strategic area that was used to block transportation between DNR and LNR and to stage possible attacks on Horlovka and Donetsk. Moreover, they had shown themselves to be completely incapable of mounting any offensive operations or even defending against a poorly trained and organized rag-tag force. If that is not humiliating – I don’t know what is. That is about as much as I can reply at this point, but I would love to address the rest of your post and subsequent points tomorrow… TBC I don’t quite get your point here. I have seen quite a few disparaging statements about the morale of regular (conscripted/mobilized) ZSU army units. Are they just propaganda – perhaps; is it surprising – not at all. However when it comes to ZSU and National Guard equipment and supplies, I have only heard the rebels say how they are completely outnumber and outgunned… Interviews with the surviving officers from 128 mountain brigade and 42 territorial battalion seem to paint a very different pictures. Have you had a chance to examine/translate them or are you just relying on Ukranian TV coverage and Poroshenko’s words? I am willing to bet that you have absolutely no knowledge of the actual rebel and Ukranian casualty figures, and are simply relying on selective analysis and wishful thinking. For that matter I don’t have those numbers either, but I simply don’t accept your argument here as I strongly question your procession of any reliable information on that matter. Again, I fear that you are letting your wishful thinking get the best of your otherwise rational analysis here. The Ukrainians had claimed that Debaltseve was never surrounded and that everything was hunky-dory there up until the very day that their forces (or rather the few lucky ones that had such opportunity) ran for their lives out of it. They had absolutely failed to master up any successfully counter attacks to retake key positions around it or to secure the passage ways out of it. They had to leave a significant portion of their weapons and equipment there, as evidenced by multiple video and photo evidence. Hundreds of their soldiers were killed in attempts to relieve it and subsequent attempts to escape from it (again as evidence by plentiful video evidence and interviews with the survivors). They had lost an important strategic area that was used to block transportation between DNR and LNR and to stage possible attacks on Horlovka and Donetsk. Moreover, they had shown themselves to be completely incapable of mounting any offensive operations or even defending against a poorly trained and organized rag-tag force. If that is not humiliating – I don’t know what is. That is about as much as I can reply at this point, but I would love to address the rest of your post and subsequent points tomorrow… TBC

No worries. Your curiosity is well called for and even flattering. When the time is right I will share my background and my relation to this subject matter. As of now I don’t yet feel comfortable doing it, for reason that I prefer to keep private. Till then, I prefer to discuss the actual facts and my interpretation of them… I honestly have no idea what bold separatist claims that were made in the spring you seem to be focusing on. Frankly, I don’t believe that either side (or the Russians for that matter) had anticipated this conflict turning into such a bloody mess back then. Of course the rebels were suffering defeats (mainly by losing ground) in the early and mid-summer when they were outgunned, outmanned, and completely disorganized. That is to be expected and I don’t see why that would come as a surprise to anyone. Again, I don’t have any inclination on focusing on battles for Donetsk airport right now, since I consider them to be quite marginal despite their heavy media coverage. Still, that battle had resulted in a Ukrainian defeat as we can clearly tell now. I would not call that particular defeat humiliating and Ukrainian units defending the airport had shown great skill and valor (although I do consider failed Ukrainian counter attacks after the “Modern” terminal had fallen to the rebels to be criminally irresponsible). Nor would I call rebel actions a shining example of victory there (with an exception of their final assault on the “Main” terminal that was both excellently planned and executed). Moreover, I would also add that the rebels did suffer a significant defeat when all their efforts to take neighboring Peski and Makeyevka was successfully beaten back by Ukrainian defenders…. So I am certainly not trying to suggest that rebel performance was always stellar and that the Ukrainians are completely incapable of competent operations. With all due respect sir, you might have inadvertently put those words into my mouth without realizing my actual view on this. As for the fighting around Debalseve, I very strongly (albeit still respectfully) disagree with your take on it. The actual operations to surround and Debaltseve had started by DNR/LNR forces in January and were pretty much over by mid-Feb; so I have no idea where you get the notion that they had lasted fruitlessly for many months. Yes the rebels did suffer heavy casualties in fighting for Derebaltseve pocket. How heavy - we don’t quite know, but the sources that I had seen point to several hundred KIA which seems to be a realistic estimate. Of course the Ukrainians (who had the advantage of operating from defensive positions) seem to have suffered at least as many casualties as well. We really don’t know yet how many Ukrainian soldiers had managed to escape Debaltseve. Some were lucky and courageous enough to fight their way through (although many others were not as lucky and had perished in the process), some had left through the “green corridors” offered by the rebels after Ukrainian heavy weapons had been destroyed. Yet others had simply run for their lives. All of these cases have been reported in numerous interviews and reports by Ukrainian survivors, most of whom had described their escape from Debaltseve as “living hell”. What makes that loss humiliating for the Ukrainians is the fact that they had been utterly defeated in a highly fortified and militarized strategic area by a force that was not much larger, nor better equipped, or trained than theirs. Is it not a worst defeat or a greatest victory in military history – not even close; but was it humiliating for the Ukrainian government and army – you betcha!

I obviously cannot speak for Steve, but I have been told by two separate US military anlysts that full Russian control of Crimea does indeed make it very difficult for any foreign navy to conduct military operations in the Black Sea... I am not an expert on naval operations, so unfortunately I cannot add much to it, nor do I completely understand why they see it that way... but I still find it interesting though.

There are defintely sources from both the rebels and the Ukranian security forces. Not surprisingly, the rebel estimates appear to be too high, while the Ukranian estimates seem to be quite conservative. You can search for them online if you're really interested. The problem lies with a number of MIAs that is very ambiguos; and while regular Ukranian MOD units might have been acounted for fairly accuratly, their voulenteer battalion lists are a complete mess

Steve, with all due respect, you don’t know me and I would appreciate you not making any assumptions about what news sources I follow and what influences my biases. As for your interpretation of the “Humiliating” defeats by Rebels and moreover Russians (whose actual involvement in fighting is extremely ambiguous); countered by skillfully withdraws – give me a break! The rebels did suffer quite serious casualties in fighting for Debalseve; and particularly in their failed attempts to take Peski and Avdeivka. Was it humiliating – perhaps; but not nearly as humiliating as having your major major staging area surrounded, pounded into the ground and forced to evacuate under deadly fire while losing hundreds of men KIA, MIA, and POW along with most of their material equipment and ammo. That is what I call a real defeat, and I think that most military objective military analysts would agree with me. I just don’t have the energy or the interest to talk about the Donetsk Airport right now; perhaps we can come back to it sometime later. I mostly agree however again you are missing some key details here. The agreement (with the Russians) was for the Ukrainian forces to abandon or to destroy their heavy equipment in Illovaiks; instead their commander had chosen to fight their way through in two MARCHING columns (as confirmed by multiple Ukranian survivors) we both know how tragically it went from there… I definitely agree with some of your points. The retreat from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk that had resulted in a loss of almost 50% rebel territory was definitely a defeat. However in this case, Strelkov had actually managed to execute a skillfully retreat (besides his covering armored group that was wiped out) and his units were able to start clearing out the border with Russia right after their move to Donetsk. And yes the rebel forces were in pretty dire situation before the “North Wind” had blown their way, which is not surprising at all considering the disparity in manpower and especially equipment that was completely favoring the Ukranians in the summer. Yet the rebels were still able to defeat the Ukrainians in key border crossings like Izmarino and Marinovka and to halt Ukrainian advances in Shakhtersk, and Illovaysk (prior to the vacationers showing up). The rebels were definitely losing in the summer (as one would expect), but their losses were not nearly as catastrophic as what has been inflicted on their Ukrainian counterparts… Likewise good sir!

Newer generations of ERA can in fact be used against SABOT as well, but again you would not want to be sitting on a vehicle as it gets hit by SABOT either...There are several reasons why Russians choose to ride on top of their IFVs/APCs: a) Better visibility Better ventilation c) Better chance to dismount quickly d) Additional protection against land mines e) Better chance to survive a vehicle hit Of course this only works when fighting a non-conventional force with limited artillery support. That is why Russian officers have lately been cracking down on such practices.

Steve, I completely agree and accept your post on Crimea. Let's not beat on a dead horse again. Thank you for keeping our discussion on point!

Or maybe you could just get a Russian translator and not push your imagination too far... There have been quite a few reports of heavy casualties incurred by rebel forces in Russian and Rebel media, including whole programs dedicated to those rebel fighters that had perished or got maimed in fighting. Of course you would never hear them referring to Russian military proper in this context for the obvious reasons. But then again, they don't appear to have suffered anything close to the humiliating defeats that were inflicted on Ukrainian forces in the summer and winter campaigns either...

ERA tiles are designed to only get activated by direct hits from HEAT projectiles. At that point the tank rider would be completely screwed with or without the ERA tiles around him. Explosive APS is a different beast though, and infantry is generally advised to stay at least 50 meters away from tanks that have it activated. But to Agusto point, there have infect been documented cased of tank riders going into battle on top of their vehicles. On the rebel side such tactic was used during the infamous attack by the LNR "August" battalion on strategic heights around Debaltseve. Not sure about the Ukrainian forces, but it would not surprise me to much either....

I don't want to dwell on this too much either, but I fail to see how a frontal assault on fortified urban area (which had only occurred after capturing the key positions around it, btw..) would be any easier than other kinds of operations without suppressing enemy artillery first. I am sure that you do, I did not mean to contest that. Do you have a functional comprehension of Russian and Ukrainian? Unfortunately it is extremely difficult to get anything close to an objective picture without having access to sources from those countries... I am not quite sure what you are referring to when claiming that there is "more than enough evidence". Are you talking about general Russian involvement and their covert (and sometimes very overt) support for the rebels? In that case I would definitely agree. However, if you are implying that Russian armed forces had played a major role in the latest battles; then no - there is not enough evidence yet to support it. We (myself included) suspect that, but there is just not enough solid evidence as of now..

I have a thought on that, I don't mean to be rude, but you simply don't seem to follow the conflict closely enough to see what you describe. There have been plenty of videos of Ukrainian artillery positions pounded by rebel artillery. How would you expect the rebels to advance and to clear the Debaltseve pocket without neutralizing enemy artillery? Has that ever been accomplished in military history? Ever? Do you know that Russian military observers refer to the Debaltseve operation as an "offensive by artillery"? Why do you thik that is? And I have no idea how many (if any) of rebel artillery units were Russian proper; but I do know for a fact that there is simply not enough credible evidence to universally refer to them as "Russian".

I get what you are saying. Yes the prefromance of Ukranian artillery has definitely improved compared to the summer battles. That's expected as they got more experience... Same can probably be said for the rebels as well. However the high losses inflicated on the rebels (prior to the encirlement of Debaltseve when the tide had turned) are probably more due to the fact that the rebels were attacking on the open ground, while the Ukrainian defenders were well entreched. The practice of mounting mortars into civilian trucks/vans has been utilized by both sides in this conflict since its very begging. However at this point it is looked down upon by both sides, as such conspicuous vehicles are generally blamed for indiscriminate shelling and associated civilian casualties. Those types of vehicles are precisely what are referred to as a “third force” by both sides. Pulling off that trick now is a good way to get yourself shot by either Ukrainian National Guard or rebel MGP/Military Police. Oh I don’t know… maybe like all the townships around Debaltseve (Uglegorsk, Nikoshino, etc…) and all the controlling heights around the passways to Debaltseve. Are you saying that rebel artillery did not play a major role in those battles? Yes Ukrainian artillery might be their strongest asset, but everything else does absolutely suck on their end as the recent fighting has shown… and guess what – it’s the strongest asset for the rebels as well and everything sucks on their end as well; but with one notable exception – they had been able to master up enough assault teams to take the strategic positions that I had mentioned earlier, while the Ukrainians could not even accomplish that…

Fair enough sir. I was not aware of the forum's policy on discussing Crimea so please accept my apologies. Rules are rules! However, if you do want to debate it further; please feel free to PM me. It's always nice to hear from you even though we happen to disagree on this matter very strongly.

I see what you mean now. Yes indeed this former Ukrainin unit was originally armed with T-64BVs, but those were given back to Ukraine and replaced by T-72Bs. These are note quite the Marines, but "close enough" as far as the game is concearned. Good call.

BTR, do you have a source for Black Sea marines deploying T-72s (or any other tanks in their OOB)? I was under impression that they did not have a tank battalion...

Just a quick note - while I would personally love to see a "separatist" module for the Red Force; I see even more sense in releasing it along with "Volunteer Battalion" addon for the Blue Force. It would be nice to see highly motivated, but undertrained and lightly equipped forces like Donbass, Azov, or Aidar battalions, They should make a good match for the pro-Russian rebels who suffer from many of the same limitations.

John, I can completely appreciate and identify with what you are saying. It is extremely difficult, and many scholars would say "completely impossible" to study and analyze the policies of foreign states without knowing their language and having some on-site exposure to their culture. I very much appreciate you acknowledging this point. I did not mean to criticize your post, but rather to point out that Russian SSO (and other spec ops and VDV units) involvement in annexation of Crimea is pretty much a given; and no serious scholar/observer would try to debate that... Of course, that does not contradict the fact that the overwhelming majority of Crimeans wanted nothing to do with Ukraine post-Maidan either...

John, this video had been released almost a year ago. I am not sure what you are trying to prove here. I don't think that anyone familiar with this subject matter would be surprised to learn that Russian SSO units had captured key government building in Simferopol on Feb 27th. As I've said a few pages back - it is not coincidental that Feb 27th has been established as Russian SSO day earlier this week...

It appears that only 3 US counter-battery radars have been delivered to Ukraine up until now. One was lost to rebel artillery fire right away, one had suffered a system failure/breakdown, and the final one was captured by the rebels... so I would be careful in projecting the impact of these systems on the actual fighting. I would be careful when speaking for Ukrainian soldiers and rebel fighters. I am sure that both had found the enemy artillery to be quite a nuisance. If the rebel artillery was so ineffective, then how the hell did they capture major population centers from well entrenched foes? At the same time, Ukrainian artillery had definitely inflicted heavy losses on the rebels as well... no question about it.