kevinkin

Over at ISW we have some must read key take aways:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023
For example:
“Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky suggested that Russia freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontlines, reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion. Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023.[1] Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine.[2] Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”[3] 
Hard to argue with that strategy. What a nightmare for the Ukrainian people. How can they rebuild under such a scenario? Build a school - Iranian drone destroys the school. Build a housing complex - Iranian drone destroys the complex. Have a baby - Iranian drone destroys the maternity ward. Regardless of where the lines fall, Ukraine will not be whole until it's under NATO's umbrella and anything thrown at them is shot out of the skies. 

Well their goes trillions in US tax dollars. What a waste of money. LOL. But seriously, NATO could take down Russian SAM systems in little more than a week and gain air supremacy over Ukraine. Remember the golden rule of this thread - Russians are idiots. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/inside-the-russian-effort-to-build-6000-attack-drones-with-iran-s-help/ar-AA1fo979
Looks like a good target for clandestine NATO enable UA spec ops strike.
Long and detailed article.
A detailed inventory, based on data provided to the Russians by Tehran, shows that over 90 percent of the drone system’s computer chips and electrical components are manufactured in the West, primarily in the United States. Only four of the 130 electronic components needed to build the drone are made in Russia, according to the document.
It's difficult, but this crap has to stop. If multi use parts can't be removed from the chain then beef up Ukraine's air defense big time. 
Not a big fan of RAND. But I just want to think ahead and did a search on "rebuilding Ukraine":
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA2200-1.html
Food for thought. 

Breadcrumbs?:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-nato-official-suggests-surrendering-land-to-russia-for-membership
After Jenssen's comments, a NATO official reassured Ukraine that there has been no change in policy.
"We fully support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as NATO leaders reaffirmed at the Vilnius Summit in July,” the unnamed official told Ukrainian Pravda. “We will continue to support Ukraine as long as necessary, and we are committed to achieving a just and lasting peace."
Beyond being a non-starter in Kyiv, the question of a land-for-membership swap is highly unlikely. During its July summit in Vilnius, NATO basically pushed the concept of Ukrainian membership until after this war is over on Ukrainian terms.
Those terms might just have to come to grips with the overall situation. That's neither hawkish nor defeatist. Ukraine is trying to egg NATO into a more active role. If intel suggests Russia is at the edge of the cliff NATO, should apply enough increasing pressure to have them fall off the cliff. If not, adopt the Israel/South Korea model and compete on economic lines. Create a situation were kinetics stop long enough to allow Ukraine NATO membership. Russian will keep attacking even if limited in scope. But NATO just has to get over that and stop using Ukraine as a proxy. I am starting to think NATO is so afraid of the bogey man they are would not help any single NATO nation if attacked e.g. Poland. Jeez, get off the bench and end the suffering. 

Let's systematically step by step start staring Putin down:
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-nato-war-risk-black-sea/
I can't think of a better domain to start with: the sea. The Montreux Convention should be temporally disregarded until Russia leaves all of Ukraine. 
When Turkey is at war, or feels threatened by a war, it may take any decision about the passage of warships as it sees fit. The USA is not a signatory to the Convention.
The west has to stop playing to Russia's only strength, ground combat, and attack through their well know weaknesses. 
In response to the Russian withdrawal from the grain deal, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg accused Russia of "dangerous and escalatory actions in the Black Sea," partly also in reference to Russia's bombardment of Ukrainian ports. NATO added it was "stepping up surveillance and reconnaissance in the Black Sea region, including with maritime patrol aircraft and drones." 
Not a strong enough response. Same old same old. 

I guess we will find out. But I would rather plan against the something in between. Could the US even move 40 M1s a month into Ukraine from storage? Don't forget the sad state of the maritime logistics the US has fallen into. I will look into that and report back. 

I do understand your point but are you thinking the assault gun (and just about everything else) will be replaced by flying munitions? It's too soon to tell if drones can be defeated and made irrelevant. Fire arms have been used since the early  16th century. Note the post above by re: EW and autonomous guidance. Even that has issues related to command and control, friendly fire etc.. But it's all fascinating. The US has to be prepared. In the end however, the US rather fight a war where its expensive stuff can safely defeat inexpensive stuff a third world nation and get sort of off the self. They would not want to deal with IEDs (or the flying equivalent) ever again. 

One thing to consider: the US is putting money into systems that will prevent their troops from being part of continental scale carnage in the first place.  Don't forget the kits the US can place on old dumb bombs are cost effective too. The US is readying the force for a war parents are willing to send their kids into. If the US is using UAVs to drop mortar rounds as part of trench warfare they have already lost. However, in the hands of bad actors and emerging nations, tactical UAVs are frightening as terrorist weapons due to their low cost and ease of use. I think they might have a role with special ops. But not as part of a field unit deployed for linear fighting. This might be the one case where throwing money at the problem is actually the right strategy for the one county that can print money at will. 

That's the problem. No one thinks that the UA has enough combat power or expertise to exploit engineering gains with a coordinated attack to roll up the RA on significant portions of the entrenched line. The more the UA attacks the more predictable their tactics become because they don't have the means to throw something new on to the battlefield. The entire free world is just waiting for the RA to crack. That's not a plan. The RA might be getting better and better at the defensive nature of this war each day. Oh, they are attacking in some sectors. Might be stupid. Might be a more of  plan than the west has. 

Yet:
The I.S.W. said of that fight: “The Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time.”

Developments like this play into the west's strength: 
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russians-board-ukraine-bound-ship
The problem is Russia is a fly and knows how be just annoying enough. But NATO can't bring themselves to kill the fly and the maggots they continue to reproduce. Maneuver warfare would suggest to take this war out the mud and fox holes and funnel it toward western domination in naval and air assets. The Black Sea should be NATO lake given the deaths of Ukrainians at this point. 

I think the point is that under the EU there is no reason for Germany to attack France at. al. Other than embedded cultural differences there is little difference between European nations, especially under the NATO and EU economic umbrella, to go to kinetic war over. 

Do Muhammed Ali proud. Roam with a Drone and strike like a Javelin.

I think the point is that under the EU there is no reason for Germany to attack France at. al. Other than embedded cultural differences there is little difference between European nations, especially under the NATO and EU economic umbrella, to go to kinetic war over. 

Same as Seals. Why would Seals operate in mountainous terrain? It comes down to marketing and drawing young people toward a specific service regardless of the name of the service in some instances. In a country the size of the US, we will find those that just want the challenge to be a Seal, a marine, a fighter pilot, a tank leader. It almost makes you think why do all these services exist in the first place given there is so much overlap? Tradition I suppose. Each service is its own kingdom. I like it that way as long as they fight as a well oiled team. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/
Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine
Throughout, Ukrainian officials and their western partners hyped up a coming counteroffensive — one that, buoyed by a flood of new weapons and training, they hoped would turn the tide of the war.
But two months after Ukraine went on the attack, with little visible progress on the front and a relentless, bloody summer across the country, the narrative of unity and endless perseverance has begun to fray.
While the story makes you angry want to cry, I have to hand it to the higher ups at the Post for publishing it. War on this scale is not clinical. I am interested in who pick's up on this piece across media outlets. Maybe it will drag the DC elites off the beach to answer tough questions with something other than boiler plate answers. 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-war-has-found-machinery-western-governments-wanting
Article forwards the idea that inaction early in 2022 meant that Ukraine could not deliver a killing blow when the RA was in disarray over the winter. Ok, Monday morning quarter backing for sure. It does not take into account the state of the UA and it's ability to use the assistance donated if it arrived as the author wished. However:
Culturally, Western governments have spent decades writing long-term strategies and managing small-scale, short-term crises like terrorist attacks. It appears the institutional memory of how to cohere the operational level of war has atrophied. This malady is correctable, but only if we can acknowledge that there is a problem to be addressed.
So, the US and NATO were caught flat footed? The shift of US emphasis to the Pacific left Ukraine high and dry? And the response was/is the same old same old while Ukraine is in ruin? 
 
 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-war-has-found-machinery-western-governments-wanting
Article forwards the idea that inaction early in 2022 meant that Ukraine could not deliver a killing blow when the RA was in disarray over the winter. Ok, Monday morning quarter backing for sure. It does not take into account the state of the UA and it's ability to use the assistance donated if it arrived as the author wished. However:
Culturally, Western governments have spent decades writing long-term strategies and managing small-scale, short-term crises like terrorist attacks. It appears the institutional memory of how to cohere the operational level of war has atrophied. This malady is correctable, but only if we can acknowledge that there is a problem to be addressed.
So, the US and NATO were caught flat footed? The shift of US emphasis to the Pacific left Ukraine high and dry? And the response was/is the same old same old while Ukraine is in ruin? 
 
 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-war-has-found-machinery-western-governments-wanting
Article forwards the idea that inaction early in 2022 meant that Ukraine could not deliver a killing blow when the RA was in disarray over the winter. Ok, Monday morning quarter backing for sure. It does not take into account the state of the UA and it's ability to use the assistance donated if it arrived as the author wished. However:
Culturally, Western governments have spent decades writing long-term strategies and managing small-scale, short-term crises like terrorist attacks. It appears the institutional memory of how to cohere the operational level of war has atrophied. This malady is correctable, but only if we can acknowledge that there is a problem to be addressed.
So, the US and NATO were caught flat footed? The shift of US emphasis to the Pacific left Ukraine high and dry? And the response was/is the same old same old while Ukraine is in ruin? 
 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/
Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine
Throughout, Ukrainian officials and their western partners hyped up a coming counteroffensive — one that, buoyed by a flood of new weapons and training, they hoped would turn the tide of the war.
But two months after Ukraine went on the attack, with little visible progress on the front and a relentless, bloody summer across the country, the narrative of unity and endless perseverance has begun to fray.
While the story makes you angry want to cry, I have to hand it to the higher ups at the Post for publishing it. War on this scale is not clinical. I am interested in who pick's up on this piece across media outlets. Maybe it will drag the DC elites off the beach to answer tough questions with something other than boiler plate answers. 

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraine-war-has-found-machinery-western-governments-wanting
Article forwards the idea that inaction early in 2022 meant that Ukraine could not deliver a killing blow when the RA was in disarray over the winter. Ok, Monday morning quarter backing for sure. It does not take into account the state of the UA and it's ability to use the assistance donated if it arrived as the author wished. However:
Culturally, Western governments have spent decades writing long-term strategies and managing small-scale, short-term crises like terrorist attacks. It appears the institutional memory of how to cohere the operational level of war has atrophied. This malady is correctable, but only if we can acknowledge that there is a problem to be addressed.
So, the US and NATO were caught flat footed? The shift of US emphasis to the Pacific left Ukraine high and dry? And the response was/is the same old same old while Ukraine is in ruin? 
 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/08/10/ukraine-national-mood-counteroffensive-gloom/
Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine
Throughout, Ukrainian officials and their western partners hyped up a coming counteroffensive — one that, buoyed by a flood of new weapons and training, they hoped would turn the tide of the war.
But two months after Ukraine went on the attack, with little visible progress on the front and a relentless, bloody summer across the country, the narrative of unity and endless perseverance has begun to fray.
While the story makes you angry want to cry, I have to hand it to the higher ups at the Post for publishing it. War on this scale is not clinical. I am interested in who pick's up on this piece across media outlets. Maybe it will drag the DC elites off the beach to answer tough questions with something other than boiler plate answers. 

Hughes salvo model. Actually come into play now with strategic drone strike from the air. The old captain probably never considered unmanned stuff. 

I think the link was from an official Ukrainian site. Do agree that links require an interpretation if only to foster discussion. But I also think the reader needs to take a look at the report cited to better comment of the interpretation. I don't think anyone is posting nefarious links and actually go out of their way to exclude them. 
As a result of a multi-stage special operation, the SSU Counterintelligence dismantled an enemy intelligence network in Donetsk oblast.
The group consisted exclusively of local women who supported russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine.
The agents worked simultaneously for the FSB and the private military company ‘Wagner’.
On the occupiers’ instructions, their accomplices collected intelligence on numbers and deployment of Ukrainian military equipment in the region.
Primarily, the women tried to identify and pass to the aggressor directions of flights of the AFU’s combat aircraft, including attack helicopters near Avdiivka.
They were also interested in routes of movement of Ukrainian heavy armoured vehicles to the frontline.
To gather intelligence, the spies walked in the area and covertly took photographs of Ukrainian facilities and targets.
The collected data were transmitted through two channels - to a handler in the FSB and a ‘Wagner’ mercenary.
Secure, closed chats in a popular messenger app were used for communication.
The SSU detained three members of the enemy network when they were conducting reconnaissance.
In addition, the SSU identified a resident (senior member) of the group who, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, moved to russia to coordinate her ‘team’ from there.
According to the investigation, all four russian assets are residents of Pokrovsk district. Before 24 February 2022, they had been recruited by the occupiers and until recently were on standby.
During the searches at the women’s homes, the SSU found mobile phones used by the suspects in reconnaissance and sabotage activities against Ukraine.

This whole thing is curious too: 
https://ssu.gov.ua/en/novyny/sbu-vykryla-na-donechchyni-zhinochu-ahenturnu-merezhu-yaka-pratsiuvala-na-fsb-ta-vahnerivtsiv
Not a good story even if it's just a sad part of war. It is usually a good idea to get out ahead of emerging issues even if they are small in the scheme of things. So let's chalk this and Kupyansk up to that. If all this is simple western style transparency, kuddos.
US Marine back away from tanks and what do you know they went with:
https://news.usni.org/2023/08/08/first-marine-corps-mq-9a-reaper-squadron-now-operational
“It will serve as the airborne quarterback for littoral maneuver elements from the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment,” Heiken said.
Years ago I thought UAVs were all about not putting humans in harms way. But it's more than that now. On the UAV is sensors sensors sensors with some firepower if needed on a plug and play modular platform. Human controllers can be almost anywhere. The fight is over the elinks between.