kevinkin

At a film festival near you: "From Russia, with Child" https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pregnant-russians-are-streaming-into-argentina-officials-are-suspicious/ar-AA1885Ah Synopsis: Handsome young Russian couple go to Argentina to have baby and obtain valuable passport. But wife is a FSS agent with plans to actually deliver a baby and the west a rude awakening. Enter Bond ... the new James Bond. And the west does not stand a chance ... or does it?

I know the Times had something on this over the weekend, but never found anything outside the paywall until ISW: NYT reported on March 1 that Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces continued to make serious mistakes and advance tank columns into Ukrainian ambushes in the recent three-week Russian offensive near Vuhledar, which Ukrainian sources characterized as the largest tank battle of the war to date.[8] NYT reported that Russian forces lost at least 130 tanks and armored personnel carriers (APCs) during the three-week offensive, forcing them to resort in the last week to frontal infantry attacks.[9] Ukrainian troops outlined their tactics to NYT, stating they lured Russian forces into kill zones before immobilizing Russian columns and channeling them into mine-laden road shoulders, before destroying them with artillery - including HIMARS, typically used against static, rear area targets.[10] The Russian elements deployed to the Vuhledar area, primarily the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, are mainly staffed with poorly trained mobilized personnel who suffered massive losses in this area in October 2022 and again in February 2023. ISW previously reported on Russian losses near Vuhledar and assessed that they are emblematic of the Russian military‘s inability to learn from its failures. We have been taking about the strength of the operational defensive and suckering the RA into kill zones. Does the tactical use of HIMARS successfully indicate that precision arty shells should be high on the grocery list?

Have not heard this one before: The third reason is a matter of practicality. The sheer distance between China’s industrial base and the Ukrainian battlefield is substantial. Russia would likely need China’s high-tech communication, battlefield management equipment and relatively lightweight weapons. These kinds of weapons require trained technicians and integration into Russian systems. Transporting large amounts of equipment and personnel would require air transport or rail. Any amount of equipment that would make a difference would require supply lines that would have to be protected. It’s a daunting task that demands much more involvement than many think. Understand the distances, but how would supply lines be threatened? https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-and-russia/

One guys opinion on the state of Putin's economy: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-deripaska-warns-russia-may-093939089.html Deripaska: Even with many of the world’s biggest economies arrayed against Russia, it still retains access to markets with a population of 4.5 billion and accounting for $30 trillion of global gross domestic product, he said. “We thought we were a European country,” Deripaska said. “Now, for the next 25 years, we will think more about our Asian past.” Well if Russia is looking east, good "riddins". And don't forget to take your conscripts with you.

In Putin's backyard - sort of maybe. But a strategic"crossroads" to keep in mind. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/28/blinken-in-central-asia-to-boost-ties-amid-ukraine-war?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d And while Uzbekistan and Tajikistan assisted the US logistically during its 20-year conflict in Afghanistan, following the US withdrawal in 2021, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan agreed to coordinate a joint action with Russia. China also wields substantial financial influence over the region through its Belt and Road Initiative and major lending.

The photos I have seen show lots of holes all over open fields. How deep, I don't know. But most of the videos show AFV on or near roads. Maybe due to mud these days.

Not only minefields, but some of the ground is so littered with shell holes and other impediments to movement that it's a engineer's nightmare. Those planning attack lanes may have to take this into account. We all know that minefields and other blocks have to be covered by fire to be effective. This is definitely a case where only recon pull would work. And each attempt to find suitable mobility will be a battle unto it self. CM will simulate this very well. The UA best troops will have to lead the effort while at the operational level, all measures need to be deployed to distract the RA at the POA. I am breaking out in a cold sweat just thinking about the effort even against green troops. Then the UA will have to determine if any break-ins are real or intentionally allowed.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-733013 Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in "about 12 days," a top US Defense Department official said on Tuesday, down from the estimated one year it would have taken while the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was in effect. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl made the comment to a House of Representatives hearing when pressed by a Republican lawmaker why the Biden administration had sought to revive the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Honey, now can I get The Macallan Lalique?

Everyone's trying to put their spin on China: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-28/russia-china-ties-will-xi-jinping-help-putin-in-ukraine/102027440 Three reasons China wants to help Russia First, the reaction to possible Chinese support for Russia will inform Chinese plans for aggression against its neighbours, including Taiwan. Second, China has no interest in the war in Ukraine being over anytime soon. Indeed, just as Iraq and Afghanistan distracted the US from the Pacific in the past two decades, China would prefer the US and Europe continue providing their best weapons to Ukraine and remain preoccupied in Europe. Finally, it is not in China's interest for Russia to lose. As a fellow traveller in the small but powerful techno-authoritarian club, a defeat for Russia would be seen as a severe challenge to Xi's narrative about a West in decline. It might also impact on the willingness of many in the "global south" to forge closer links to China and move away from Western nations. This means China would have to support Russia at such levels as to overcome Russia's incompetence to use it effectively. This is a classic case of the impossibility of be sort of pregnant. China has to do effectively nothing other than buy energy, or go all in. It would be better if they just came across as a peacemaker and let the chips fall as they may. To go all in and have Russia defeated anyway would be a major set back for China.

https://www.aei.org/op-eds/chinas-ukraine-plan-is-all-about-challenging-the-us/ There are still good reasons China wouldn’t want to get pulled into the war, such as fear of international condemnation, further damage to relations with Europe, and exposure to US sanctions. Yet there is one very compelling reason Xi might nonetheless get involved: He can’t afford to see Putin lose. A Russia that emerges from this war modestly weakened, internationally isolated, and thus more dependent on Beijing, isn’t such a bad thing from Xi’s perspective. A Russia that has been battered so badly that it hardly qualifies as a great power poses a bigger problem, because it allows the US to concentrate on Beijing. "Afraid of my own shadow in the face of grace Heart full of darkness spotlight on my face There was love all around me but I was lookin' for revenge Thank God it never found me would have been the end walkin' the tightrope steppin' on my friends Walkin' the tightrope (it) was a shame and a sin" - Song by Stevie Ray Vaughan

While Ukraine is in a much much better position medically and socially to handle the outcomes of this war, it will remain an issue for years. And if the violence continues with no end in sight, the west is going to have to consider re-building mental health and lives as important as re-building physical infrastructure. Rebuilding lives is far more complicated and necessary than rebuilding brick and mortar. You can't just throw money at it either. An imperfect science. Perhaps Ukrainians living aboard now will return with the right attitude to help those that remained in country.

Breaking: https://www.barrons.com/news/drone-crashes-near-moscow-civilian-infrastructure-likely-targeted-governor-a0d61277 Going for the jugular? https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-attacks-drones-e02372ef4b84fc3b4cf6afe8ed141a77

This is correct. It took the widespread integration of vehicles with the internal combustion engine to exploit tactical gaps in the Allied lines. Not ready in WW1. But in WW2, they brought German troops and supplies forward to critical points faster than the enemy could by foot, rail or horse. This is one key component of 'blitzkrieg". However, this could be defeated by strategic depth even by less mobile forces like the Soviets in 41-42. So even if the RA today can modify its tactics, it still has to maintain momentum into the strategic depth of sector they intend to capture. Fortunately, the RA lack the logistic robustness to do so and Ukraine has plenty of strategic depth to utilize in parrying offensives should they breakthrough.

Hot in Belorussia (War Zone last night) The Russian A-50 was “blown up at the Machulishchi military airfield,” by drones operated by Belarusian partisans opposed to the current Lukashenko government, according to the Telegram channel of BYPOL, an organization of Belarusan military dissidents opposed to the current Lukashenko government. “As a result of two explosions (the places are indicated in the photo), the front and central parts of the aircraft were damaged, the avionics and the radar antenna were damaged,” the BYPOL Telegram channel reported. “The damage is serious, the plane will definitely not fly anywhere.” The incident “occurred while snowplows were working near the aircraft. Probably, as has repeatedly happened at Russian military facilities, someone again did not comply with fire safety measures and smoked near the side. Belarusian partisans are consistent in expelling the Nazis from their land.” The attack was carried out with drones operated by Belarusian partisans, the BYPOL Telegram channel reported. "These were drones,” BYPOL reported. “The participants of the operation are Belarusians, participants of the ‘Victory’ plan, they are now safe outside the country."

https://www.barrons.com/news/us-poland-and-germany-may-hold-joint-manoeuvres-minister-f8c6edf "Men, synchronize your watches, we are going in ... "

Thanks for the clarification on those flamethrowers. I guess Amazon won't deliver thermobaric launchers. But the Russians are still flaming a-holes. Not their great grandpas shock troops.

Twelve flamethrowers; I guess if you are short on ammo just go online: https://throwflame.com/ "Assault Detachment", I would call them the flaming a-holes. Interesting read thanks. Might have to sandbox that formation for ****s and giggles.

I have never been in combat, but over the years I have come to understand that conventional ground troops are completely demoralized under air supremacy. So Ukraine's supporter still have a major ace in the hole. Which could mean the RA will have to stay in theirs giving the UA time to train and re-fit until the time is right.

Russian pilots have a hard time flying in their own airspace. https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-shot-down-own-warplanes-pilots-didnt-want-fly-report-2023-2 But it's not just the aircraft that Russia needs. Experienced pilots have been in short supply for Moscow, with its air force starting the invasion with "fewer than 100 fully trained and current pilots," according to the Royal United Services Institute, a British think tank, which cited Ukrainian military assessments. What, the USAF National Guard has 10x or more in it's important role?

The writer is inappropriately pointing blame at Ukraine for not be a purrfect kitten for 30 years when everything would be just fine for Ukrainians. That's water under the bridge. What he should ask is whether we can expect something different coming out for the war given the challenges Ukraine faces. He is insulting calling Ukraine a failed state. But it's not insane to say Ukraine will be dependent on the west for the foreseeable future. But goes without saying. Ah, the drive to create content strikes again.

Ok, the writer has his past. What what about his thoughts on Ukraine's past and future? Is the writer pointing out "let the buyer beware"? A very quick look at Carden indicates he is a typical Nation writer: anti-big business, anti-war, "better red then dead" kind of guy. But the point that Ukraine will become dependent on the west, at least for a while, and a prime place for investment (in the name of freedom) seems to coincide with a lot of the discussion here. But to place blame directly on Ukraine for not getting its act together since '91 would require mounds of research into the inner workings of the state and its foreign policy. You can't just throw that out there. Especially in light of who Ukraine is fighting. Absolute butchers. For 30 years, Ukraine’s leaders also squandered a chance to consolidate a viable multiethnic nation state. As an American, the writer should know how hard that is and that resisting a mono-ethnic state, a “Ukraine for Ukrainians.” is a constant struggle. Perhaps the antithesis of The Nation, the WSJ today: Ukraine Is the West’s War Now The initial reluctance of the U.S. and its allies to help Kyiv fight Russia has turned into a massive program of military assistance, which carries risks of its own. They don't go as far as mentioning dependency. But there is some overlap.

Not sure if the writer was tossed out of the Obama admin or what, but read with a grain of salt and don't kill the messenger: https://www.theamericanconservative.com/ukraines-endgame/ Not once in the years between 1991 and now has Ukraine been able to produce a governing elite capable of recognizing that while its geographic position is its Achilles heel, it is also its greatest strength, that they could leverage their geographic position in a way that would advance the common good. But having refused to do so, the population at large, looted to its last hryvnia, sunk deeper and deeper into poverty: By 2015, Iraq, Mongolia, and Albania had higher rates of personal income than Ukraine. Yet in the view of President Biden, his advisors, and the near-entirety of the media-political establishment in Washington, this is a war, as the president put it in January, that “is about freedom. Freedom for Ukraine, freedom everywhere. It’s about the kind of world we want to live in and the world we want to leave our children.” Freedom? Only if the definition of freedom is permanent dependency. For any chance of survival, Ukraine’s governing elites clearly believe they must hitch their futures to the E.U. and NATO. Yet should they join NATO, they will become yet another military dependency of the United States. Should they become members of the E.U., they will become yet another vassal of Berlin, and will have to place its future at the mercy of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and an unaccountable bureaucracy in Brussels.

Productivity is the important measure and GDP is part of that. Per capita would assume everyone in an economic system is equally productive. They are not. Generally, the more productive a person or company is, the higher their income over a given time within a relevant set of markets. Wealth is different from income: If a doctor is very productive and makes 1 million USD in a given year and spends it all in the given year (+/- any investments made with that income) their net wealth goes nowhere. Starting from zero, wealth is accumulated when profits are invested and not spent to pay "expenses". So if the the doctor buys an Accord and not a BMW, or a 3 bedroom condo not a 5 bedroom home with swimming pool etc.. early in their career and continues to invest the profits from their income, they will accumulate wealth that can be passed on. Income derived from labor can't be passed on. Assets that produce income can, or be sold. It's up to the beneficiary, A high income person is not necessarily wealthy and a wealthy person may not have a high income. The pedestrian media get this all in a mess when "tax the rich" comes up. https://fellow.app/blog/productivity/types-of-productivity-measures-and-how-to-use-them/

Sorry if this was discussed way back when: https://news.yahoo.com/russias-medvedev-floats-idea-pushing-091433077.html

I guess by default it's the CCP. But what a motley crew they have.