kevinkin

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2023-03-20/u-s-intel-helped-india-rout-china-in-2022-border-clash-sources India was able to repel a Chinese military incursion in contested border territory in the high Himalayas late last year due to unprecedented intelligence-sharing with the U.S. military, U.S. News has learned, an act that caught China’s People’s Liberation Army forces off-guard, enraged Beijing and appears to have forced the Chinese Communist Party to reconsider its approach to land grabs along its borders. Another kernel of info. India holds a few interesting cards in all this given their imports of Russian oil are way up. Oh, and they have a bomb too. (138 to 213 nuclear warheads) India could be seen as indirectly providing funds to buy Chinese ammo.

This commentary is sort of in line with some of the discussion over the weekend: But while Putin is searching for allies who can send weapons, boost trade or at least support him in global forums, for Xi, the visit seems more about positioning Beijing globally than about Russia or Ukraine, said Aleksei Chigadayev, a China analyst at Leipzig University and former lecturer at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics who left Russia because of the invasion. “It’s a demonstration to the world, ‘We can mediate in international conflicts, and we are a reliable partner,’” Chigadayev said of Xi’s visit. It is also a warning, he said, to Washington on the need to negotiate with Beijing and to Europe on China’s importance as a major global power. He added that the visit sends a message to Central Asia, Africa and the Middle East that China is a more viable source of support than the United States. Xi may also be intent on demonstrating to Putin that if there is a new world order, then China will lead it. Putin is a tool in more ways than one: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/as-xi-visits-russia-putin-sees-his-anti-us-world-order-taking-shape/ar-AA18PgUC China, on the other hand, has bigger fish to fry: "Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, yearning to keep the lights on and have clean water for free."

China is only interest is self interest. To that end they are looking to flip the world order so that it leans to them and not the west. They want to maintain the west as a importer of cheap goods produced by cheap labor. So this transformation will be slow (poaching the frog). To paraphrase Stalin: keep the population fed enough to work, but not strong enough to revolt. They will maintain a caste system of workers, lower and middle management, executives, and owners that are a front for the state. China has a "so be it" approach. Help Russian a little: they fail, so be it. They out last Ukraine, so be it with a smile. If they try to broker a peace, it will not be in anyone's interest but China's. Or perhaps one of the growing third world countries they deem as strategic assets. Seems like India can sit back and reap some tangible rewards by doing nothing. And nations have every right to try to improve themselves as long as they adhere to basic human rights. Oh, but there's the rub.

Chinese ammunition has been used during the war in Ukraine, United States government sources have confirmed, adding that they believe Russian forces to have been the ones using it, according to a recent report. US government officials told a Japanese news source, Kyodo News, that although they are still unsure if China did indeed supply Russia with ammunition, they will take action against China if it is true. The US currently possesses information that indicates China's intent on sending ammunition and weapons to Russia. US President Joe Biden warned Xi that if China were to provide any military aid to Russia to use during the war, there would be severe consequences. Sketchy report, but it's out there: https://www.jpost.com/international/article-734760 Would like to see what this is all about.

Rules of engagement matter. Take the handcuffs off the US military and you have one force. Channel operations through a panel of lawyers - it's not the same force. Precision helps to a point. But make a mistake and a hit on civilians can turn it the mistake a PR victory for the enemy. Additionally, the US would never tolerate the type of ground warfare and casualty rates witnessed every day in Ukraine. Before the fall of the iron curtain - maybe. After, no way. That's why the the US has emphasized air and naval power knowing that a massive expenditures on ground forces that will never be used is a waste. Against a peer, they basically say if you defeat our air force and navy, you win.

Another look from a mile high. And its cloudy with some turbulence: https://americanmind.org/salvo/the-new-great-game/ --- The Western response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is widely seen as a sign of a reinvigorated alliance of democracies against authoritarianism. Even historically anti-war publications like the Guardian speak volubly about the West’s heroic “defense of liberty.” Raising concerns about petty issues like a potential nuclear war over Ukraine leads one now to be dismissed as a Putinist stooge, both by those who habitually back wars, like neoconservatives and defense contractors, and those who almost always oppose them, or used to, anyway. India, for example, has capitalized on the low cost of fuel brought forth by the sanctions imposed on Russia by buying up to 33 times more Russian oil in 2022 than in the years prior to the war, and despite canceling a summit with Vladimir Putin over his disagreement with the war, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has not yet officially condemned the invasion of Ukraine. The lack of solidarity can be seen as fecklessness or rank opportunism. But it also reflects the alienation of the developing world from the Western neoliberal world. In large part, this is driven by basic needs. Countries with growing populations face more immediate challenges than whether or not Greta Thunberg approves of them. Youth unemployment, a key marker of underdevelopment, according to the World Bank is 27% in Iran, 31.9% in India, 64.2% in South Africa, 31.9% in Brazil, and 16% in Indonesia. the West, despite occasional bravado, is rapidly deindustrializing, nowhere more obviously than in the birthplace of industry, Great Britain, while working to stifle both energy and food production across the West. America’s working class is in decline, and life expectancy has gone down for the first time in peace time as upward mobility has stalled, which presents a less than inspiring model. The fact that the shift to renewables is “normalizing” blackouts across the West so that even energy rich places like Alberta now experience power outages can’t be too impressive to developing nations. The much ballyhooed “green” apocalyptic drive to wipe out fossil fuels plays into China’s existing strengths while weakening Western economies. China dominates both the emerging solar and battery markets, and, through alliances with African countries and Asian nations like Indonesia, maintains a strong grip on the world’s supplies of rare-earth elements, critical for wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicles. The West’s response to Ukraine has been justified but also solipsistic. Politicians in Washington, Brussels, Berlin, and London may feel better about themselves even as they thoughtlessly drive an ever deeper wedge from the parts of the world that represent the demographic future of humanity. In the next 50 years, according to the United Nations, the world will see less growth, at 2.7 billion, compared to the previous half century’s 4.1 billion. But all of that growth will be in the less developed world, generally in areas with low literacy, high fertility, and sadly no electricity. Between 2022 and 2050, United Nations projections indicate most of the world population growth will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates are still relatively high even as populations plummet elsewhere. Instead of the inevitable global progress toward liberal democracy and market capitalism, the surviving democracies now struggle to find allies against autocratic regimes in China, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. These autocratic countries often see themselves as the proud inheritors of past imperial regimes, whether Tsarist, Ottoman, Chinese, Arab, or Persian. China today is no more likely to become a constitutional democracy than it was under the Mongols or their fourteenth century Ming successors. It has evolved into a highly nationalistic autocracy, fortified by a system of semi-permanent caste privilege and technology-enhanced social control. Until Western democracies develop practical ways to build sustainable economies unhampered by draconian approaches to the often exaggerated climate apocalypse, the Russo-Ukraine War could end up accelerating the appeal of autocracy in much of the world. Nations do not live solely on ideals, press conferences, and non-profit moralizing. They must first feed their people and provide them with at least a whisper of hope. Until the West wakes up from its self-referential slumbers, the tide of history may be turn out less friendly to Ukraine’s loyal friends than to those who either abet aggression or maintain a steady indifference. --- In a nutshell, the writers are forwarding: The west was suffering from self imposed internal bleeding before the war, and now the bleeding is happening externally on the battlefields of Ukraine. The developing world is watching, which is why Ukraine's victory has to be assured quickly. None of this "we will fight on for years". Distracted by war and other nonsense, the West risks growing areas of the world falling into China's orbit completely. Sure the south to north migration will slow if China's infrastructure initiatives make places livable. But there goes the liberal democracy's appeal and with that its standard of living.

On quantitative vs qualitative: Quantitative (i.e. number of troops) only matters when the opposing forces are armed the same way. Quantitative must account for the volume of destructive fire on-going vs in-coming. I don't need vastly superior numbers if I can achieve vastly superior firepower with much fewer number of troops. That's where quality in equipment and troops using the equipment comes in. And when those troops can use ISR and precision as force multipliers - watch out. If the enemy has to fight in three dimensions (not just a ground war) - watch out. If winning in any one domain is decisive - watch out. Quality forces the enemy into a Boyd cycle they can't win. A one armed juggler needs to change careers. Exactly, we will always wonder the number lives saved if NATO stepped up last year in decisive ways. Never let a defeated team hang on. This applies to all sports. Bad things happen when they can hang around waiting for a few Hail Mary's.

On our first trip to Ireland we stopped on a hot weekend day and the line was so long we just made our way to Kenmare. If you get tired of the car w/o air conditioning and driving on the left, go to a local pub. When you cool off, things will be better and driving on the left will become second nature.

Happy St Paddy's Day https://dnyuz.com/2023/03/17/russia-losing-troops-so-fast-they-may-collapse-by-years-end-ex-general/ “Russia is being attrited at such a rate that they may collapse before the end of this year, assuming the West delivers in time what we’ve promised. War is a test of will and a test of logistics,” Hodges tweeted in reference to an assessment by military expert Marcus M. Keupp, who leads the Department of Defense Economics at the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. During his interview with the German news outlet, Keupp agreed that the battle in Bakhmut illustrates the meaning of “war of attrition” in reality. “The current situation in Bakhmut particularly symbolizes this fact. A look at the numbers makes this clear: In order to take the city, the Russian leadership sends out battalions in mindless frontal attacks, the units are quickly shot up. If they lose a battalion every day, they have to get replacements. But from where? So other parts of the front are being thinned out,” he said. I would kiss that dirty old blarney stone if this could be made to happen.

Ukraine demoted commander who gave interview about ill-trained troops: A Ukrainian battalion commander who gave an interview to The Washington Post describing how ill-trained troops were weakening Ukraine’s position on the battlefield quit his post this week, after his superiors demoted him because of his remarks, he said. In the interview, Kupol had acknowledged that his remarks could result in disciplinary measures. “As a patriot of my country, I’m worried about my country. That’s all,” he said. “Do you know what the problem is with our commanders?” he added. “They have a narrow circle, which does not deliver bad news to them. They filter out the bad news.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/16/ukraine-commander-demoted-interview-pessimism/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d Net net, I think this situation is healthy in the long run. Whistleblowing, when done professionally, is a key part of a self governing society.

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/03/pentagon-mobilized-support-tech-startups-after-bank-failure/384033/ Something to consider down the road when Ukraine is re-building and re-arming - venture capital and its growing role in innovation apart for the big boys like Lockheed. A friend of mine has a son who owns a small company that develops all sorts of deadly stuff. Most prototypes never go into production. But the ideas get kicked around and combined with others from other small outfits and they do "knock out the seed corn" but run on thin margins where cash flow (aka pay role) is sometimes funded by short term loans. Ukraine will require all sorts of financing and one size does not fit all.

With the ground so barren and beat up, maybe hiding in a clump of trees in NOT the best tactic. So hiding in plain sight might offer a statically better chance at survival (if well dug-in).

Maybe that's not the sector. To obvious and, by Russian standards, well defended. Another sector would produce a politically important result with lower (much lower) losses. Test the Russian resolve and see if they fall apart. Test and see if the engineers can handle the terrain. If they don't fall apart in a lesser sector, then the land bridge offensive will be too costly. If precision munitions are key, then the US has to ensure there are plenty in place to do the job. I have not heard that much about partisans operation in the Russian rear. Perhaps a well executed strike to link up with those elements might produce a lot of high 5's the west can't ignore.

If they can (which I agree they can on so many levels) then the Spring offensive might just be for "show" other than improving their lines prior to negotiations. The UA should not risk "OK progress with a lot of casualties". Find a sector to demonstrate a skillful integration of NATO combined arms weapons, training and tactics with their own. Produce a clean win. Rinse and repeat all summer when a situation presents itself. Take a look at he military pipeline and their society as a whole and decide if they can afford to fight continuously or pause. I would not be surprised if the history of the war show that the UA was at it's best killing Russian waves utilizing economy of force to keep those bastards in check. In a pause, the war would shift to a battle over military production, training and healing the wounds of a free Ukrainian society. Here the war can be won since Russia on it's own can't keep up.

The way I read this report is that there might be good reason for hope. But hope is not a plan and don't be surprised if we are all dissatisfied with the Spring offensive. Top to bottom, family to family, Ukraine is getting beat up. Can't wait to see if Rocky can slam a haymaker in the coming weeks. The west is going to have to replace UA lost combat skill and experience with raw firepower delivered to cause a moral collapse in the RA. If this does not happen, we might be looking to why the UA was not allowed to maintain the initiative back in October. We might be also looking at negotiations as the west get feds up with Ukrainian bloodshed. The UA might be filled with supermen. But they are flesh and blood first and super is less tangible now than it was only 6 months ago. Bakhmut is not a small part of the war given the loss rates and on-going media coverage. These are the types of factors that influence the big picture big time.

Missed this from a few days ago: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/03/13/ukraine-casualties-pessimism-ammunition-shortage/ Despite a pessimistic view of the ongoing correlation of forces and ammo: Ukraine has been holding back soldiers for a spring offensive and training them as part of newly assembled assault brigades. Kyiv is also organizing battalions around the new fighting vehicles and tanks that Western nations are providing. I think the UA might be counting the moral of the RA collapsing once probing operations begin. Otherwise, they will need to continue to attrite the RA while on the defensive. Meanwhile the Ukrainian people have to be growing tired with the toll the war is taking: Ukraine has lost many of its junior officers who received U.S. training over the past nine years, eroding a corps of leaders who helped distinguish the Ukrainians from their Russian enemies at the start of the invasion, the Ukrainian official said. Now, the official said, those forces must be replaced. “A lot of them are killed,” the official said. At the start of the invasion, Ukrainians rushed to volunteer for military duty, but now men across the country who did not sign up have begun to fear being handed draft slips on the street. Ukraine’s internal security service recently shut down Telegram accounts that were helping Ukrainians avoid locations where authorities were distributing summonses. If the spring offensive fails to reclaim all the lost ground, where the line stabilizes might just it of the next few years. The west needs to pick up the ball and run with it now. Not with troops on the ground, but with something to scare the bejesus out of the Russian conscript. What that is, I would love to know.

"Nature abhors a vacuum" - Aristotle https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/with-russia-visit-xi-pursues-effort-to-upend-us-led-global-order/ar-AA18H4M6 But what is that between Xi and Putin's ears?

Some more potential evidence that Russia's ammo is running low" And while it's too soon to make any distinct conclusions about their use, they do underline the fact that Ukraine's ever-improving air defenses are making Russian tactical airpower rely heavily on standoff weapons, of which Russia is not known to have massive stockpiles. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/evidence-of-russia-using-grom-standoff-weapons-in-ukraine-emerges Even with precision, you still need a critical number to unpeel the IAD onion. So this is more a positive than a negative tidbit of info.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11857317/Russia-sends-WOMEN-prisoners-Ukraine-war-zone-time.html A natural progression toward a zombie army. And armed with museum specimens: Heavy losses on the battlefields has also forced Putin to desperately empty Russian museums of obsolete tanks to repurpose them for his flailing war effort. Footage shows ageing Soviet-era T-62s being 'modernised' in a round-the-clock factory in Chita, Siberia. The drive to retrofit the decades-old tanks highlights the desperation of Putin's military machine - while Ukraine is being supplied with the most modern Western tanks. Some of the tanks being revamped at the 103rd Plant may be 60 years old, dating from the time Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev were ruling the USSR. 'It is sad that the number of exhibits of military museums will be reduced,' said one report. The UK's Ministry of Defence today said that Russian ammunition shortages have 'worsened to the extent that extremely punitive shell-rationing is in force on many parts of the front'. This has almost certainly been a key reason why no Russian formation has recently been able to generate operationally significant offensive action,' the MoD said in its latest intelligence briefing.

As the lines stabilized all the pundits are re-jockeying (is that a new phrase?) their positions at best, or pointing fingers at worst. One example: https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/03/14/is_the_very_existence_of_liberal_democracy_at_stake_in_ukraine_887081.html Some use the past to explain the present. While others claim it can't or is irrelevant in the current situation. In the end, they will be on some talk show claiming they were at least half right, and the others half wrong. As the media mill churns. You will get more appearances staying on the fence and a pat on the back by a 30 something producer for a job well done.

Wow, thinks every Russian kit should have band aids and a white flag.

“[Russia] has converged on Bakhmut with a large part of its trained military personnel, the remnants of its professional army, as well as the private companies,” Podolyak explained. “We, therefore, have two objectives: to reduce their capable personnel as much as possible, and to fix them in a few key wearisome battles, to disrupt their offensive and concentrate our resources elsewhere, for the spring counter-offensive.” Well that is as plain as the nose on Putin's face: https://nypost.com/2023/03/12/russia-loses-1090-soldiers-in-reported-deadliest-day-of-war/

East vs west manufacturing is similar to the miliary question "quality vs quantity". Can ill-trained masses outproduced a smaller number of well trained workers. Production is not counting the number of bars of soap produced. Production is measured in the value of products manufactured for consumers. Ideally, from the west's POV, China would (an is) producing necessities at a cost driven down by the Walmarts on the world. The west would be the designers of those products but also luxury items. Once a new luxury item becomes an old necessity, production is shifted to a low cost labor pool. The Apple model from 15 years ago. The issue is that China wants a piece of the design process and luxury markets where margins much higher than plastic xmas toys. They don't want to be seen as a tool for the west. Meanwhile, to keep costs down, they pollute their country and the west says nice and clean behind draftsmen tables or in air conditioned factories. China hates that. The west will never go back to a low cost sweat shop type labor force. So any inroads China can make in the west's hold on value added product development is all gravy.

Not an expert, but the “Iceman” in the Alps (1991) was found with arrows that contained fletching. The find is dated to 5,300 and 5,200 years ago. I see reports that fletching goes back 10K years. It's not hard to imagine all cultures using these stabilizers once their enemy discovered them. Once everyone was using them the "arrow race" was over distance and power. (Long box; cross bow). History abounds with descriptions of the decisive use of light cavalry. Mobility and precision all in one system before fire arms took over. The Moguls had an almost unlimited supply of horses and arrows with terrain well suited for there use. Some say only the European forests stopped them, or their land became to expansive to administer.

Until the UA develops enough combat power to break the stalemate on the ground, it's a battle of wills. Putin thinks going after civilian infrastructure attacks the will of the Ukrainian people while the Russian military says in the news cycle for internal consumption. They call this approach a "wing and a prayer".