kevinkin

Article highlights moral vs. physical and yet again how those inside the beltway got it wrong. They would call it miracle vs physical. The higher ups just didn't realize the multiplying effect of the will of the UA and western training had when put up against the blind lumbering RA. You have to be in theater to understand this, not behind a desk towing the line until retirement. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/03/30/the-war-of-surprises-in-ukraine/ Dang! https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/03/new-artillery-round-shoots-farther-some-missiles-can-hit-moving-targets/384601/ A shell with electronic counter measures has 70 mile range. I wonder how they would affect a warship?

Would it be possible to draw off RA forces to the north? https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2023/03/30/the_wests_arctic_forge_23_drills_unsettle_russian_military_890306.html If Russian is so tapped out, even a minor repositioning might be helpful a) draw off combat units b) just see how they respond logistically. Use Russia's paranoia against them, not by crossing the northern border but by poking at it. Another long one: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-russias-unconventional-operations-during-russo-ukrainian-war-february-2022 Interesting passage: Overall, it may be said that the Russians do not have much trouble obtaining information about targets or locations. Their capacity to collect is significant. Assembling, analysing and disseminating this information, however, is a different matter. It is understood within the Ukrainian intelligence community that the GRU has established a targeting centre for coordinating its reconnaissance across Ukraine. Reports from human agents are routed to this centre for analysis. Here analysts produce a daily overview of detections, cross referenced with GRU geospatial intelligence and other collection methods. BUT The target packs then provided to the relevant echelon would be sent with limited contextual information to determine prioritisation – and targets were often struck in the order in which target packs were received rather than in an order reflecting the characteristics or value of the target. Often the distribution of these instructions and the target’s place in the series of tasks of the unit assigned to conduct the strike would take at least 24 hours. Sometimes this was much longer, especially where it required Russian naval assets to move to a position and launch Kalibr missiles.

A brief and interesting read. Russia losing its touch everywhere: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/he-came-to-dc-as-a-brazilian-student-the-us-says-he-was-a-russian-spy/ar-AA19cK0x The revelations have also exposed serious lapses in Russian tradecraft. Authorities have mined Cherkasov’s computer and other devices and found a trove of evidence, according to court records and security officials, including emails to his Russian handlers, details about “dead drops” where messages could be left, records of illicit money transfers, and an error-strewn personal history that he appears to have composed while trying to memorize details of his fictitious life. His arrest last April came at the outset of an ongoing roll-up of Russian intelligence networks across Europe, a crackdown launched after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that officials say has inflicted greater damage on Kremlin spy agencies than any other effort since the end of the Cold War. Not sure what the writer is basing that opinion on. Let's hope it's not wishful thinking. But it does make sense the the west would go on the offensive behind the scenes.

That might be one of the initial goals of the coming UA offensive. Recon, not just by outgoing fire, but also by observing incoming fire - its type and volume. The ideal strategic direction might be well covered leaving other less juicy directions open for exploitation. But that's OK. "You can't always get what you want But if you try sometime you'll find You get what you need."

https://www.defensenews.com/land/2023/03/28/how-us-trainers-helped-ukraine-reinvent-its-doctrine/?utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sailthru&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d "Clark acknowledged “we can’t quantify” the impact that concepts- and capability-focused advising had on Ukraine’s armed forces, but he said many of the nation’s battlefield successes were linked to ideas honed with SATMO’s help — namely logistics and decentralized command philosophy." We were preparing them for the mother of all modern insurgencies and got the mother of all modern conventional wars. "With the war in its second year, other countries in Europe are buying American weapons to fill gaps left when sending existing stocks to Ukraine. When new gear arrives in the donor countries, Clark said, his troops will be there to help get U.S. allies up to speed." Once again, some make out well during wartime. They are going to have build new wings on libraries to hold all the books devoted to this war given the wall to wall coverage and every aspect.

An essay on civilian life in a liberated city: https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/in-war-ravaged-lyman-ukrainians-live-underground-months-after-liberation/ar-AA199SiG There's so much work to be done, it sort of blows the mind.

Part of the specs better include: https://www.sandboxx.us/blog/leopard-2-a-tank-that-can-carry-a-beer-without-spilling-a-drop/ What's a victory celebration without suds?

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230327-depleted-uranium-shells-the-armour-busting-munitions-heading-to-ukraine Miss this before, but there are several other reports. Numbers not discussed from what I have read. The question is "What was the hold up?" Compatibility with Ukrainian tanks I suppose.

To clarify, I was referring to politicians and their party's tactics to gain or retain power. Not voters. Voters don't play those games and are not always as short sighted. Like you said they do have "cultural/political/self interested reasons for leaning a particular way." But politicians only pay attention if it will help them on election day. So it's only in unusual circumstances that they agree on anything. This is basic differentiation of one product vs another. They feel there is no reason for a 2 party adversarial system if both sides play nice most of the time. The problem is that as they huff and puff many cans get kicked down the road only to resurface every 2 years.

Someone tries to explain a recent curiosity: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/nicholas-goldberg-democrats-flip-red-republicans-flip-blue-on-one-major-issue-is-it-permanent/ar-AA197EKM But does not get too far unless it's a simple as: “The pendulum is swinging, but I’m not sure we have clarity on how far it’s swinging or exactly in what direction,” said Andrew Bacevich, chairman of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. Bacevich’s position is that there’s not that much difference between the parties in any case. He argues that the party in power — whichever it is — tends to emphasize the importance of strong American leadership and the minority party generally shows more sensitivity to risks, costs and tradeoffs. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, doubts we're seeing a true realignment. He argues that plenty of progressive Democrats are unenthusiastic about our involvement in Ukraine. And while it’s true that GOP voters are growing more skeptical of a muscular foreign policy, he’s not sure it’ll last. That may be true under normal situations. But with a war going on killing so many, and in the news every day, who ever controlled the US executive branch (i.e. armed forces and foreign policy) would have to step up and support Ukraine. Any flip has to be interpreted in light of the current extraordinary circumstances. The party out of the executive, will always question the administration on every issue. Even if they can hardly do so with a straight face. If this were not a blood curdling war, the difference between parties would be greater, but where they fall still depends on who holds executive power.

I agree which produces a touchy situation when a state with WMD does not know it's been defeated and can't afford to admit it for various reasons. So even if they gave up everything gained and stopped the intense combat with their tail between their legs, the "war" will go on indefinitely. Enter Russia proper and those tac nukes might not be so hypothetical. But as long as Ukraine can start to rebuild under a restless "ceasefire", that maybe all that can be done for now. A big blow this campaigning season should hasten this state of affairs. But the Xi visit might be just enough cover for the Russian elites. The rest of the population has no need to rise up since China sort of has their backs. A lifeline just strong enough to keep Russia afloat and used as marionet strings.

Don't get me started ... https://www.hmdb.org/m.asp?m=7259 Been involved with the history Battle of Monmouth since I was a kid.

Asks the question: Are drones just one delivery method for AI? That is, drones are not revolutionary (even with low cost, ease of handling, and swarming tactics), it's AI for use across many additional products for war that is revolutionary. https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/3/24/ukraine-a-living-lab-for-ai-warfare What makes this conflict unique is the unprecedented willingness of foreign geospatial intelligence companies to assist Ukraine by using AI-enhanced systems to convert satellite imagery into intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance advantages. U.S. companies play a leading role in this. The company Palantir Technologies, for one, has provided its AI software to analyze how the war has been unfolding, to understand troop movements and conduct battlefield damage assessments. Other companies such as Planet Labs, BlackSky Technology and Maxar Technologies are also constantly producing satellite imagery about the conflict. Based on requests by Ukraine, some of this data is shared almost instantly with the Ukrainian government and defense forces. While the character of the war may not yet be determined by AI, the Russia-Ukraine war is akin to a laboratory setting in which many companies and governments are able to constantly train and test AI systems for a wide range of capabilities, functionalities and applications. This is the tragic paradox. Each day that the conflict continues, and human beings are losing their lives in horrible ways, AI systems are being trained with real data from a real battleground — not to stop the suffering and end the war, but to become more effective in fighting the next one: the AI war.

Thanks. Beat me to it.

The UA should get ready to serve the chef a bowl of Okroshka. Like revenge, it's best served cold.

Thank, that's what I was referring to. Certain products don't belong within a just in time model. The analysis is over which products and how much inventory to hold in reserve. Can you make 65% of the finished good and finish it at a latter date? This is used to take unstable raw material and place them into a form with a greater shelf life. Pharma uses this since many compounds are liable. No one want to hold any inventory unless the deal they get pays for it and more. Forecasting is a specialty engineering field.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/93k588/will-vladimir-putin-be-arrested-in-south-africa South Africa has fallen foul of its ICC duties in the past. In 2016, judges at the ICC condemned South Africa for failing in its obligations to arrest the then-wanted Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir when he attended an African leader’s summit in 2015. -- A bit on weapons procurement and how just in time manufacturing is not right for items like N95 masks and things that go boom. https://breakingdefense.com/2023/03/up-our-game-the-pentagons-3-strategies-to-shore-up-munitions-stockpiles/ For example, who is left paying for the new tooling if demand does not live up to expectations? -- More of America's strategic ambiguity: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-victory-analysis/ “We keep saying, ‘We’re going to give them everything it takes,’ – everything it takes to do what?” Breedlove told Task & Purpose. “We’re going to be there as long as it takes – as long as it takes to do what? As a military commander, if someone gave me those as directives, I would have no idea what they were asking me to do.” “I don’t why they can’t say: ‘We want Ukraine to win; our goal is for Ukraine to win, and here’s what that means, and here’s why it’s important to the United States,’” Hodges told Task & Purpose.

Lots of questions and observations with no answers provided. We used to say at work "don't hide behind the data". This means even though the experiment was run to perfection and you showed beautiful graphs and tables, it's your data, you are the expert, now give us your interpretation. Don't hide behind your data. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/03/23/questions_without_answers_about_ukraine_149020.html So I will cut in and say that speed is the answer. A lot of the trends and questions posed will be answered by the rapid defeat of Russia via retaking captured land so as not to let the situation in the Spring of '23 become the status quo. A status quo that the world might see as a small victory for evil at the cost of so many Ukrainian lives. But here is a question: why did we let the stabilizing effect that nukes had for generations all of a sudden become destabilizing?Answer: paralysis by over analysis.

A fate worse than death?: https://dnyuz.com/2023/03/21/ferraris-and-hungry-children-venezuelas-socialist-vision-in-shambles/ Remember this one?: https://www.newsweek.com/putin-escape-plan-venezuela-russia-loses-war-1765383

Unfortunately, the timeframe being the latter stages of WW2, a lot of Ukrainians are being "killed" too." And I bet a lot were fighting against their will. According to researchers, during 1943-1945 about 4.5 million Ukrainians became Red Army soldiers. After June 1944, almost 40% of the Soviet Red Army consisted of Ukrainians. The losses of the Ukrainian people during World War Two account for 19-35% of the total losses of the USSR. - Wikipedia

So they could blame the cut off on someone else? Technical difficulties can be overcome and supply reestablished - which was not the goal this winter. A severed pipeline would take much longer with no immediate timeframe.

If Russia wanted anything to do with the Baltics, they would have followed the game plan RAND displayed in their infamous wargames to make the inside the beltway 3 martini lunch crowd happy. On paper, the Baltics would have been easier - but for NATO - ah shucks. So they went after the real prize anyway, Ukraine. Which they though would be easier. The thing is, Russia can't get out of its own way and either direction should have been avoided. Perhaps Russia should have grabbed Kiev in 2104 first. After the Crimea, the west was warned and element of surprise lost.

I don't think NATO ever wanted to directly defend Ukraine (troops on the ground) since the war would be very deadly like what we have seen unless NATO went all in with a ground pounding for the ages. That situation might very well be more escalation prone since the disintegration of of the RA would be so rapid. The Baltic nations are more defensible and I have spoken with Russians over the years and they have a lot of distain for those societies. They don't believe they are worthy of being part of the Russian empire - at least not post-cold war. Ukraine is the prize and in a historically deadly place geopolitically. Chalk this war up to one man's hubris and culture wide mis-reading of the west's desire to help defend Ukraine and bleed Russia white.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/20/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-moscow-ukraine-war A picture worth 1000 PGMs. I know it's for show, but this relationship is a little too cheeky for me. Xi didn't have to accept a state visit - but he did. Maybe Vlad fears leaving Russia and/or using electronic comms. --- Is there a worse mental state than insanity?: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/defense-national-security/russia-threatens-bomb-hague-xi-kremlin "I’m afraid, gentlemen, everyone is answerable to God and missiles,” Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev, who held the title of Russian presidency under Putin from 2008 to 2012, said on Monday. “It’s quite possible to imagine how a hypersonic Oniks fired from a Russian warship in the North Sea strikes the court building in The Hague. It can’t be shot down, I’m afraid.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/20/xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-moscow-ukraine-war A picture worth 1000 PGMs. I know it's for show, but this relationship is a little too cheeky for me. Xi didn't have to accept a state visit - but he did. Maybe Vlad fears leaving Russia and/or using electronic comms.