kevinkin

Long on history, but short on the raid: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/ukraines-uncrewed-raid-sevastopol-and-future-war-sea Ultimately, uncrewed capabilities represent one vector among many in which navies are generating cheap mass. This makes sense as mass – to a much greater extent than technology – has been a historical predictor of success in naval warfare, and efforts to shift from forces built around a small number of exquisite capabilities to larger maritime force structures are understandable. Such efforts, which leverage commercial capabilities and in some cases personnel, also bridge some of the bifurcation between countries’ commercial maritime sectors and their military force structures.

Too cold out today ... let's head south: https://news.usni.org/2023/02/03/u-s-destroyer-operating-near-the-black-sea-for-first-time-since-russia-invaded-ukraine My blockade My Blockade! OK one ship, but a kick *** one at that. https://www.businessinsider.com/us-mq9-drones-to-greece-amid-ukraine-war-turkey-tensions-2023-1 And add a little spice. Supplies meant for Ukraine are often unloaded at the Greek port of Alexandroupolis and sent via rail through Bulgaria and Romania. The same network supports US deployments to the Black Sea region.

A little on the behind the scenes grassroots supply efforts. Nimble, lean networks will be best. But not there yet. Some of the large logistics outfits need to step up. Then back away to pervent unneeded red tape. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/02/vindman-leads-new-push-to-send-military-contractors-to-ukraine-00081016

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/washington-secrets/balloons-called-top-delivery-platform-for-nuclear-emp-attack Preppers everywhere might break into their stash tonight over this report.

Well not like breaking the sound barrier, but at this stage breaking any barriers is some kind of achievement. Next on deck is shooting my age in golf. I can't imagine what CM will be like by then.

Another rung up the ladder: https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/ukraine/2023/02/03/us-to-send-ukraine-longer-range-bombs-in-latest-turnaround/ Reznikov said at a meeting with EU officials. “Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on the Russian territory. We have enough targets in the occupied areas of Ukraine, and we’re prepared to coordinate on (these) targets with our partners.” On Tuesday, the Ukrainian defense minister was asked if Biden’s ‘’no” to F-16s was the final word.“All types of help first passed through the ‘no’ stage,” Reznikov said. “Which only means ‘no’ at today’s given moment. The second stage is, ‘Let’s talk and study technical possibilities.’ The third stage is, ‘Let’s get your personnel trained.’ And the fourth stage is the transfer (of equipment).” I guess the third stage is like a parboil. But let's hope Reznikov is not taking this all for granted. The SDB I has a circular error probable (CEP) of 16–26 ft (5–8 m). If supplied to Ukraine in 2023, this would mark the weapon's first export and use in combat. The weapon is launched from ground-based missile systems such as the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System and M142 HIMARS (Wiki).

Occam would reduce the problem to a massive delivery of General Tso's chicken and egg drop soup. They always arrive cold anyway. Good advertising angle however: Get high on Hunan.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/02/world/oldest-preserved-brain-fish-intl-scli-scn/index.html Article fails to mention the scientists named the fossil Vlad. Teams have been sent to find more fossils across Russia. All team leaders were full of optimism targeting the waters near the Kremlin in the Moskva River. "Dirty work, but the world wants answers" said one off the record.

For goodness sake; WTF: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-expected-channel-stalingrad-victory-111534377.html "We don't send our tanks to their borders but we have the means to respond, and it won't end with the use of armoured vehicles, everyone must understand that." A new bust of Stalin was erected in Volgograd on Wednesday along with two others, of Soviet marshals Georgy Zhukov and Alexander Vasilyevsky. Despite Stalin's record of presiding over a famine that killed millions and political repression that killed hundreds of thousands, Russian politicians and school textbooks have in recent years stressed his role as a successful wartime leader who turned the Soviet Union into a superpower. You can have zombies without an apocalypse.

Call for the gloves to come off as a forever war would not be ideal at all: https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/11382 https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3839349-will-logistics-become-ukraines-achilles-heel/ Should we be surprised that the media is banking that a small transfer of AFVs will make a battlefield difference in the coming months? Russia's base of operations - Russia itself - is outside the ROE and that must change. It would be risky but definitely upset the status quo on the ground in Ukraine's favor. Some don't think there is time enough to wait for large maneuver formations to be trained and assembled for offensives. Those offensive will require new ROE anyway. So why doesn't the UA start taking some limited sucker punches at deep RA logistics hubs and see what their reaction is.

One thing, among a host of other things, to consider is the quality of the troops lost. (This is not directed at you Mikey, just using the 6.5 number) Recently, I was figuring one UA troop was worth 5+ RA troops. Compared to the start date last February, what would a graph of troop quality/moral/exhaustion etc.. look like over time? Has the RA improved to a point where one troop equals one troop? No. Is it now worse or better for the RA? Overall, probably worse. Locally, maybe approaching better than last year. Maybe that's the message the BBC article that's been posted is trying to convey via a few observations from UA troops. It's almost a now or never plead for more NATO high tech hardware. Seems that the UA troops don't want any positive trends for the RA to continue.

I think is severe cases while at war a soldier can be jailed. Mostly they are thrown out of the military and lose any benefits as part of a dishonorable discharge. Less severe cases involve loss of rank and given dead-end assignments. But I am not in JAG. But what is actually more interesting the the mention in your link of hodge-podge of formations and their wide use. I just wonder if a major UA offensive is going to have to bring in more standardized units. At least to effect an initial break in/ break through.

Short read with a small sample size of UA troops directly fighting: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64455123 First mention of Russian CAS in a while. The rest seems to align with our gut feelings at this stage of the war. "There have been cases of [Ukrainian] units who don't seem willing to fight, and disagreements [over tactics]," one Ukrainian soldier acknowledged, speaking off the record. Others talked about the trauma of seeing their friends die, of units that had sustained overwhelming numbers of casualties and of the psychological impact of fighting amidst the corpses of so many uncollected Russian soldiers. One soldier, citing fears of a new Russian mobilisation and the huge size of the enemy's population, spoke of his fear that "Russia will grind us down". But most troops we met waved away such doubts, blaming them on exhaustion and - in general - praising their commanders for giving them time to rest. One experienced officer said he believed Russia was looking to straighten its frontline, take a few more chunks of the Donbas, and then declare "mission accomplished" and push for peace negotiations. He said he was sure Ukraine would never agree to that but warned that the military would need Western fighter jets to break through all of Russia's new defences, particularly in the south of the country.

If this damn war carries on for a couple of years, is it heading toward a DMZ situation not unlike the one between NK and SK? While not modern industrial countries, both nations were decimated by the war. US strategic bombers famously had nothing left of value to strike in NK. The thing is, no country today is "backing" Russia like the Soviets backed NK. Russia has no proxies to rein in. Is Wagner a proxy? No. So I don't see a DMZ lasting too long and intense fighting will break out if NATO wavers in its commitments. Even if they don't, it's a very uneasy peace. I would be disappointed if the West doesn't have a timetable to avoid that.

Thanks for the report. Trying to get caught up. I don't think the UA will repeat Zitadelle and any offensive would be directed to area less dug-in. But that means time is closing in short medium term. Russia might being developing armed camps as springboards for operation solidifying any gains they have made on the ground. As below, I think the UA would be best served to draw the RA out in the open right now and counterattack them. Mobile blocking positions to observe and rain artillery on advancing trains. At all times, the UA must retain its advantage in ISR. But it can't allow its artillery to be pushed back too.

Gee, don't take this guy to look over a Chinese menu. They won't keep the light on for you. https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-chancellor-olaf-scholz-doubles-down-on-refusal-of-fighter-jets-for-ukraine/

I stopped with cereal years before MJ was on the Wheaties box. I will take eggnog and with Paddy's to start a day on the links. Golf links, not sausage.

Likewise. But another beef is NATO airing their differences in public regarding the recent AFV debate. Once they realized they were behind the 8-ball, a public plan should have been announced in unison. I am all for transparency, but optics do matter when many lives are at stake and the possible re-shaping of Europe is left open.

Enjoy the beer. It's 5PM somewhere.

Why sure. But why bother when you have so much fossil fuel to burn. Do you think Iran's leadership cares about the planet? Plus "A nuclear-armed Iran would dramatically change the balance of power in the Middle East, weakening US influence. It could also encourage other Middle Eastern nations to develop nuclear weapons of their own further reducing US influence in a critical region." Not to mention passing a weapon to non-state actors. Just a nightmare. And it's not that these will be used, it's the blackmail associated with having then in the wrong hands. Look how a nuclear armed Russian has been able to survive just based on the threat. Conventionally, they have been relegated to the lowest tier based on their 2022 season.

Not aware of any civilians being killed by Stuxnet. In fact, the preemptive cyber attack may have helped millions. And many Iranians. We we never know.

It can be, and that's enough for most of the world to make sure Iran's enrichment does not produce weapons grade purity. The vast amount of Iran's electric power comes from fossil fuel. I doubt the Mullahs have gone green all of a sudden.

Perhaps, but a kinder gentler war crime seeing only the enrichment apparatuses were targeted and few (if any) people were hurt. And life went on in Iran. Probably best for the average Iranian that its leaders don't get a WMD anyway.

2x

The thing that complicates matters is that darn plausible deniability thing. Or attacks that just border on calamities. 9-11 with a dirty bomb - that sort of thing. But you are right to point out that it's not just WMD that trigger claims of an act of war. A lot of people are concerned about where the fentanyl is coming from. But let's not go there except to say if it starts leaking into the consumer product supply chain it will make the Tylenol tampering look very lame in retrospect and some entity would have to go down in response.