kevinkin

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-accuses-russia-of-blowing-up-another-dam While we cannot say for sure at this point who was responsible for the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the dam along the Mokri Yaly River, the ongoing counteroffensive is only likely to see the chances of such desperate actions increase. For Ukraine, this is a chance to take back more territory from Russia while making use of some of its more modern Western-supplied heavy arms. For Russia, meanwhile, even modest Ukrainian gains will strike a severe psychological blow and its military will use everything within its power to hold its lines. Reading between the lines, Thomas Newdick is mirroring the confidence that many have.

Axis of evil at it again: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-helps-iran-supply-drones-to-russia-quickly-investigators-say-dd492264

Well there is a One - Two Punch. I will put it on the drink menu. Proceeds go to buying more UVAs for the UA.

Amazon has been experimenting with drone delivers. What a way to confuse the RA. Is it hostile or a bottle?

From the warzone link above: Ukrainian troops have captured the towns of Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, in southeastern Donetsk Oblast as well as around Kamenskoye in north-central Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to Ukrainian troops, who posted a video on Twitter that CNN geolocated and Russian milbloggers, who are providing most of the information emerging from the battlefield. We cannot independently verify any of these claims. And, as with all such reports, skepticism is warranted. In addition, there is little official information coming from the Ukrainian side, though that is beginning to change. Of course at this stage Ukraine will highlight the positives. But they have little to gain by fabricating it.

Large summary from about an hour ago: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-advances-made-in-grueling-fight

I agree. The OODA loop is going with the UA using alternation in several recon in force thrusts. Without close air support, this might something the Halls of the Pentagon never considered as a possibility across wide open terrain. Nothing wrong with having a night shift to keep the pressure on. A really good poker player can keep the table guessing until they figure out the individuals at the table. Then all losers go home saying "what the heck just happened?" That is sort of the defeat phenomenon in maneuver warfare. The enemy thinks they are ok, until they are not.

ISW June 10th summary: Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have tactical advantages in conducting assaults at night due to Western-provided equipment with superior night optics systems. We discussed night ops briefly just a while ago. Now this seems to make some sense. Perhaps the UA did not want to show this card too early before the counteroffensive with a front being static. Encouraging, but let's see how it pans out and how much of an advantage it is.

Good questions. If active defense means deploying mobile reserves, the RA might wait to understand the main axis of the UA advance and only use those reserves if the UA breaks into the clear. But Putin has a only bad cards to play. If Ukraine can bring those forces out from cover into the open the theory is that NATO training and equipment will cut them to pieces. The idea is to expose the Russians to firepower while minimizing the firepower against Ukraine. Russia should never have been allowed to dig in and set-up. I am not sure what others think, but Russian artillery seems to be a critical thing to strike... and strike and strike again.

Didn't Rommel propose defending the Dniper "Line" after Kursk with a massive use of mines and ATGs aka North Africa? I can't remember the book right now. This was before he got out of hospital and sent west. Anyway, that was then this is now. Conceptually, UAVs are sort of like mobile aerial mine fields. Real pains in the tush. Individually mines and UAVs are nothing, but used in mass; they can produce operational effects on the battlefield. Doesn't the US have the ordinance to take out large minefields? The GBU-43/B (MOAB) comes to mind.

Has anyone come across a recent map of Russian long range air defense coverage? S-400; S-300 etc.. ? I am getting more and more frustrated that Putin's nuclear blackmail is preventing an introduction of NATO airpower to end this freaking war in the favor of the west. You can't nuance a way to peace and victory. By doing so you are just using the UA as a tool in a larger geostrategic game. The terrain is perfect for close air support. Ok, take a deep breath.

Holy mackerel! We used to do "wargaming" to anticipate a competitors response to our new product launches. Hour and hours of time. This took place when The Art of War became all the rage in the business community. I am not against learning from failure or doing wargaming exercises. Just don't over apply these to a point when they become a distraction.

That concept has been around a while now: https://blog.hubspot.com/sales/learning-from-failure-quotes I agree with the concept in principle. But as a chemical engineer, I know failure can kill people. The same is true in the military context. In business there was a big push to conduct military style AARs on all projects even successful ones. The idea was to find failure even in lucrative projects and learn from it. Let's squeeze more juice from a nice ripe orange. Independent consultants made big bucks teaching the obvious. The question was sometimes asked "Should we fail so we can learn?" Crickets.

This brief summary says it all ... take a deep breath: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1667197895148437504?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1667197400212205571|twgr^83d99c9eacbfb480e6347d18d56e9053dd1910bc|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedrive.com%2Fthe-war-zone%2Frussia-has-destroyed-its-first-ukrainian-bradley-fighting-vehicles On a side note, I have never seen the pier at NWS Earle so busy for at least a year now. It must have something to do with the war and suppling the effort. What is stored in the bunkers at Colts Neck that could be of use in the war - I don't know. Nothing other than small arms had been approved. Maybe the navy logistics ships are just using the pier and the support facilities. Maybe they are replacing draw downs in Europe. But the activity is remarkable and I believe the US is committed to continuing the flow of material to Ukraine. https://cnrma.cnic.navy.mil/Installations/NWS-Earle/

https://apnews.com/article/russia-iran-drone-factory-ukraine-war-dfdfb4602fecb0fe65935cb24c82421a “This is a full-scale defense partnership that is harmful to Ukraine, to Iran’s neighbors, and to the international community,” Kirby said. “We are continuing to use all the tools at our disposal to expose and disrupt these activities including by sharing this with the public — and we are prepared to do more.” A a pact between devils.

Sorry I slipped and used the single awful word. I will be more careful and remember ... There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns - the ones we don't know we don't know. Donald Rumsfeld

Go back a few pages to yesterday or maybe June 7 and we were talking about night ops. It turned out interesting.

I am on board historically and tactically. However, mine warfare and fun game play are a difficult things to get correct. Mines produce a lot of random factors that frustrate players having beer on a Saturday night. The "next game" will be so cool and very playable. That's why we are here to help design that game. Battlefront is taking notes.

I think the pros and cons of linear vs column formations might be applicable. Recon pull is happening with strong probes composed of elite highly mobile and networked troops. They are looking for opportunities to bring in a second echelon force whose main role is to hold ground. Waiting in the wings are the big boys - the third echelon. Their deployment awaits RA reaction to newsworthy gains and passes through the second echelon into significant operational space where UA losses are not prohibitive. At this point it’s imperative that the third echelon assume the tactical defensive and place the RA in a dilemma - do they counter attack (which they stink at) or give the ground to the RA (politically bad)? Wash and repeat across the front. Not in a linear way, but in narrow combined arms flying columns. One interesting point to consider: once into operational space do you try to take out a key military position or head to a more newsworthy (political )one? Either way to your point Steve, the RA may just fall back not knowing where the envelopment is coming from.

The defeat phenomenon can occur rapidly, but when and when remains a mystery until it does. It like watching someone work on a stuck zipper. They work and work on it until 2 or more elements finally align and connect and the slider suddenly gives way.

When I was young many years ago the Sunday NY Times had a full section called "the week in review". The granularity of the incoming information today just feeds the minds of those who react before thinking.

Might be taking a page out of western prime time cable "news". Keep the controversy going as long as possible. It's good for ratings, page views etc.. . But even with this cynical view, there might be something more to this than simple greed. I think we will see signs i.e. cracks in Russia's support system that may or may not be significant to the overall situation. Progress will be meaningful when the signals pointing to UA successes out number the noise pointing in the other direction. But keep a very open mind to raw data.

Agree. I think the UA is in the recon pull stage. But not against a Cold War Soviet army on the move. But a ill led, under supplied RA of June 2023. But dug-in to some degree which means they are lacking mobility. Rope a dope in my estimation. These jabs are not weak because a haymaker is waiting in reserve. If the UA can't find an economical way forward then it's up to the political leadership to explain why. But we are just not there yet.

Definitive meaning something other than raw data and analysis not based on raw emotional wounds that recently occurred. The is no definitive anything in the social sciences. The term definitive in history usually means a balanced fact based approach not weighed down by very recent traumatic events. When I am 80 we might get there if this freaking war ever ends.

Recon pull underway? Let's see. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/06/at-the-bleeding-edge-of-ukraines-counteroffensive-the-ukrainian-marine-corps-has-worked-out-new-infantry-tactics/?sh=72fccf35316e