hcrof

It looks like we got the dates of increased RU pressure. Interesting thing is that "the maintenance" will allow RU to back pedal as needed without internal fallout. 
RU most likely will hit hard UKR around these dates. And most likely we will see much of panicked news. On other hand, if RU will not get desired result they will have to meet August empty handed. But historically August is an inconvenient month for RU government (August Coup 91, August 1998 Russian financial crisis, August 2000 Kursk disaster crisis, August 2008 Russo-Georgian War)
 

A kid with a toy rifle stands next to a Ukrainian patrol unit in central kyiv, Ukraine on June 22, 2022. GLEB GARANICH / REUTERS

Direct invasion of Moldovan army supported by Romania Army which in turn is supported by NATO. Battalions of foreign mercenaries will also take part.
RU mentality is fortress under foreign siege. They believe that all their neighbors who are not under direct RU control (aka RU puppets) desire to attack RU lands.
 
 

Civilian Girkin
Ru is trying to bypass sanctions using Iran. Iran has agreed to send requested goods to RU. What exactly it can send is not clear as Iran is under sanctions as well. It cannot send anything critical for RU critical infrastructure.   [Half seriously] RU people got another hit - various soda drinks manufacturers reports lack of carbon dioxide due to lack of fertilizers export (production decreased so supply of carbon dioxide as by-productions decreased as well. [my young contacts report that all problems with accustomed drinks (and food) are annoying hell out of young RU population. It not going to put them on the streets but increases pressure to leave the country]

Girkin assessment of Kaliningrad blockade. Keep in mind the assessmentent is for a nationalist audience. I kept some crazy bits to illustrate about the way they think.
 
Points of note:
Difference in mentality - West pushes RU to stop doing bad things, RU believes West is doing it to destroy RU. Nationalists are trying to mobilize masses with West Scarecrow. Given above the Info ops must focus on absence of need to mobilize - RU men who is not going to fight on RU Nats side will not be put on the fish stringer.  RU masses does not really care about anything except themselves and their close relatives. That's why RU Nats are scaring them that everybody will be put on the fish stringer and then killed. That's their only chance to mobilize masses given disintegration of RU gov credibility during Tyra scandal. 

No. All what we are launcing now either Soviet time stocks or maybe alraedy foreign aid - Poland and Czech Republic are fromer operators of Tochka-U. 
Wiki says estimated number of missiles for Tochka-U in Ukraine is 500-800. During the war 2014-2015 there were at least 50 launches. But there is a question how much theese missiles in good conditions. Part of them were older 9M79 missiles with 70 km of range.  

This also is reported by several sources already. Deep strikes inside RU controlled areas are really getting ubiquitous lately. This port is around 85km behind the line of contact.
 

His name Murad Saidov. He is Deputy Representative of the Head of Chechnya in Crimea and Sevastopol

 
His son Adam Saidov aka Gritsenko is a citizen of Ukraine.

He is not RU fighter or even POW. The guy was living in Ukraine and as I understood tried to help with humanitarian help. Rumors had it that he simply rejected the offer to come to RU. That adds further insult to nationalists' injury because they guy not only did not fight for RU it rejected RU like damned liberal traitor.
Who would expect a twist like this?

I remember RU hinted that a solution to "technical problems" with Nordstream1 was to use Nordstream2, they are indeed trying to leverage the gas connection. After the declarations made in Kyiv last week, I don't believe that Old Europe would budge though.
It is not that Germany (no attempt at bashing at all, just that it is the biggest consumer of RU gas and would be most affected, so it's the best example) would freeze in winter due to lack of gas, it would affect the industry mostly. Less than 50% of German gas comes from RU, rest is NL or NO. In 2021, buildings (residential, services, and agriculture) accounted for 44% of the gas consumption; this is trailed by the industrial (30%) and power sectors (21%)(link). Given that the hole in deliveries can be partially offset with increased imports from remaining sources, and even LNG through Poland if need be, lack of RU gas wouldn't be the end of the world.
What I can't imagine though is that if RU cut the gas completely, German (or any other, except maybe HU) gov would allow itself to be humiliated into visibly giving any concessions to get the supplies back. Once those supplies are cut, they remain cut for the foreseeable future.

Definity a shift. Too much heat in conversation. Too much hothead reactions. The exchange itself is not a big deal. It is just a match (brilliantly played though by UKR). War exposed internal contradictions between RU government which uses nationalist rhetoric for its own means and significant portion of RU public for whom it is all real.
If RU would be winning that would not matter much but they are not really winning. So, everybody is too emotional now, too unforgiving.

Good!
Murz rant is interesting because while it is captain obvious description it is coming from enemy mouth. BTW pay attention to what he want to say about RU AA level of competency.

Regarding Tyra exchange scandal
Tyra is Azov linked civilian volunteer medic.

She was captured escaping Mariupol when RU were encircling it (She was not at Azov Steel). It seems in her car there were two kids those parents were killed (I am using RU sources and they are a bit sketchy). RU being RU outright declared that she is Super Evil Nazi who killed those (implied Russian) kid's parents to use kids as means for escape. They basically sentenced her for a brutal death.  What happened next is not clear but it appears a RU Chechen Mobster paid dozens of millions rubles to somebody higher up to make an exchange for his son who was in Ukraine. I do not know who came up with idea of exchanging Tyra but it was a brilliant move for UKR and extremely bad for RU. But RU corrupt guys being corrupt were dumb enough to think only about money probably because they hoped UKR will  be quiet about exchange.  UKR guys brilliantly declared that Tyra was exchanged but did not provide any serious proof. RU nationalists were flabbergasted at the news that RU government decided to release Super Evil Nazi RU journalists started asking their inside contacts about what is going on. They got semi-official reply calm down, nothing happened Tyra is still locked up. UKR closed the trap by releasing video of Tyra at home. RU journalists were extremely flabbergasted and released info that there was in fact exchange but not the official one but corrupt exchange for son of Chechen mobster.  Following spontaneous combustion of nationalists butts I think was seen from Mars. it was so serious that Chechen mobster made video declaring allegations are fake, his sone is in Ukraine and all these journalists are at risk unless stop spreading all these lies. He literally called female journalist and threatened her.  It did not help because nobody believed it. On the contrary it made things worse because not only was the exchange corrupt it looked like RU got nothing back, UKR untermensch easily screwed RU ubermensch. It is bad to be corrupt but much worse is to be corrupt loser who lost to despicable Ukrainians! Sensing big scandal RU government being RU government sent their propagandist to deal with the problem. And as you can expect from RU they managed to make it even worse because they basically said F*ck You, Nobody, it is none of you business, just shut up and go back to your peasant work. As result Nationalist combustions became so strong that had they real turrets they would easily win turret throwing competition.   Yes, sometimes it feels like I am watching Death of Stalin 2 as TV reality show.
Anyway, this scandal presented RU nationalist with huge problem how to explain what they just saw. It is not about corruption. It is about Propaganda and Moral High Group nationalist believed they had. The first explanation is obvious - RU government are pizdabols who cynically lied about Tyra. Given nationalist are on Glorious Crusade to Kill All Nazis the idea that the woman they were about to brutally kill is not Super Evil Nazi is scary. What else Ru government was lying about? The whole Glorious Crusade with a lot of blood spilled suddenly started to look very miserable.
So, nationalists declared a second explanation - conspiracy that RU governments are in secret deal with UKR government. It saves Glorious Crusade but throw RU government under the bus - for RU helping Nazis is equivalent of being Nazi. Nationalists just got perfect excuse to refrain from further activities helping RU government. 
RU government urgently needs something to district people from very bad thoughts about Tyra exchange.
 

"Children play in a hut built from ammunition boxes, in the village of Novoselivka, near Chernihiv, on June 21, 2022. SERGEI CHUZAVKOV / AFP"

While I do not have experience with RU Navy historically it is the most screwed up RU force. It is constant embarrassment for RU. 
Regarding the current RU push - it needs to be seen in context of two ongoing UKR political victories. RU is suffering noticeable and highly embarrassing cracks in Donbass collaborators morale due to Donetsk shelling. Also, RU is suffering noticeable cracks in RU nationalist morale and loyalty due to the ongoing Tyra exchange scandal.
Two Pressure Cookers (Donetsk area and RU home) started to display the first cracks and that greatly unnerves RU command. They desperately need something to mask their political failures.
It does not mean both cracks will lead to open rebellion, but it does mean that the human base of RU is shrinking and UKR is growing because indifferent RU activists are good for Ukraine.
For US guys, it is like hardcore voters are getting pissed off - they are not going to vote for other party anyway, but they might decide to stay home during an election ensuring other party victory. That's where we are heading right now unless RU pulls something out of it's butt.

Found another interesting bit from civilian Girkin (It is infamous in Russia Anatoly Nesmian). While it is not about military I believe some pieces are interesting to get a feel about RU civil life. Tell me if you do not want it.
 

Small quote from civilian analog of Girkin regarding Kaliningrad blockade
 

Of course, like in USA, for example, inside our authorities "pigeons" and "hawks" also present. "Pigeons" are not pro-Russian (pure pro-Russian politics now either fled or lurked in the shadow), but they would want to stop the war as quicly as possible. "Pigeons" will advice president to renew negotiations, when Ukraine will achieve some significant success on battefield, when "hawks" will advice to fight until as minimum we reach 24th Feb lines or better until we libarate all terrirories. Society is mostly on the side of "hawks". 
Gerashchenko, the man of Avakov (he is not only former internal affairs minister, but 2nd-level oligarch) is not pro-Russian, he is just a man of corrupted system in police.
Who is portrait current situation as "losing" and "betrayal" are political opponents of Zelenskiy - followers of former president Poroshenko. Bot networks and public opinion leaders, hired by Poroshenko constatly shared usual hate on each event, tied with Zelenskiy. In their eyes he is "traitor, maloros, clown, puppet of Kolomoyskyi and Yermak, who signed secret deal with Russia in Oman about gradually surrendering of Ukraine to Russia" and "Zelenskyi handed over southern Ukraine to Russia and was ready to hand over and Kyiv too, but he didn't expect that army will be resist" . On their opinion only Poroshenko now secretly managed all diplomacy and maintained support of western countries (even lend-lease and British NLAWs before a war), and Zelenskyi only makes self-PR. They believed Zaluzhnyi and army just make war on their own, ignoring the wishes of Zelenskyi to surrender. Some of them openly write they would be glad if Ukraine lose or remained without westren support, only for "73% of green debils, which elected pro-Russian clown were punished". But this is real clinic. 
On other hand we have the same bot-farm and public opinion leaders, hired by President's Administration and in their writings we can find out that Zelenskyi is a greatest political figure of modern times (like and followers of Poroshenko), how under his wise leadership Ukraine prepared to war and is getting support from all western world, how our army is winning day by day and the victory will be soon (this is duty of Arestovich).
So, Ukrainain inner politic showdowns and intrigues, alas take place even in this time... 
  

Big propaganda mistake - In Russia famine as a tool is strongly associated with Nazis due to Leningrad siege legacy. Margo publicly admitted that RU uses famine as a tool just like German Nazis. Good Job, Beaver head!
If I would be InfoOps guy I would hammer RU regime supporters mercilessly with this tacit admission of RU Nazism. They can run but they will not be able to hide from Nazi label from now on.  
 

Wanted to come back to this one as well.  I think we are muddling some issues here:
- Cost.  A strategic issue that many countries are wrestling with but a UAV with a Stinger was what I was talking about to deny manned aircraft and here the cost is upside down for the traditional manned aircraft.  Counter-drone, or drone-v-drone warfare needs a new set of cheaper weapons, which they will be because they don't need the same HE payloads to bring down...finding and hitting them is the primary issue.
- Unmanned warfare.  We are coming up to 120 days of this war and drones are not going anywhere.  In some areas it looks like Russian EW is cooking the sky enough to cause problems for everyone - I would love to see how many EW emitters have been hit.  A shooting drone-v-drone war is going to last a lot longer than a "couple of hours". Why?  Because if you run out of drones in a couple of hours and your opponent has not, you are basically screwed, this war has demonstrated that trend.  Unmanned systems will not be a niche layer we rub on the old one, that once "shot away" allows us to go back to the "good old fashion", there is too much competitive advantage in these systems.  So rapid production and deployment of unmanned systems (of all types), integrated across the depth of the battlefield is going to be a primary driver.
- Good 'ol CAS.  It brings payload and range, I will give it that.  However, it is big and visible - stealth may help but I do not think modern Stealth is built for the ISR environment we have found ourselves within.  So even if you manage to destroy an opponents UAV AD layer, which will not be an easy ask, you still have ground based systems in depth which is what the Russians are facing right now.  Those MANPADs are only going to get smarter, more lethal and able to hit higher.  This is likely why the Russians haven't found "air gaps" on such a large frontage, MANPADs everywhere means there is really no gaps unless you make a major push, which could get very expensive very quickly.  Back to cost, time is a resource as well and one can produce cheap lethal unmanned systems much faster than modern manned military aircraft.  I argue that it will go the other way...manned CAS/Strike/Air Superiority will rain down for the first couple hours - or basically get left sitting out - and then everyone will be relying on unmanned systems.
I keep getting the sense that the big powerful predators of the battlefield are in trouble.  And it is integrated small cheap nasty bite-y little things that are hurting them.

Murz published clarification regarding recent video of UKR platoon running away. I will not put video here as it is just light platoon of UKR guys running away (for RU guys reading us - your army was founded by a guy who managed to ran away from Germans like through the half of RU before being forcibly stopped). It was celebrated by Murz as a glimmer of hope. Bright clean spot on RU pants full of crap [sorry, got very emotional reading Murz].
The video is not important, but Murz clarification is. Girkin (and many others) criticized Murz that video is bad as it shows UKR running away without Ghost [Murz related battalion] arty interfering and killing them once and for all. Murz responded with clarification describing what was really going on.
As I can see from other sources it is a more or less typical platoon-company battle at Donbass and will give feel of current fights.
 

It's claimed this is a photo of 24th Feb before attack on Hostomel
 

Interesting detail of 1 phase fighting.
[EDIT] Civilian surveillance systems is something that for sure needs to be taken in to account when fighting in the cities.

Fresh Assessment from Girkin
Take with grain of salt. He might make mistakes. I might make translation mistakes. 
Summary - RU Donbase offensive is ending. The battle finished in a Draw slightly tilting to UKR side. He expects a pause in Donbass (implying RU forces). A new RU offensive is coming in between a week and month and half but definitely before autumn as RU political leadership cannot tolerate current conditions.  
 

Fun story (might be photoshop but it still funny) about what RU business is really thinking about the situation. As you might know recently there was so called Internation Economic Forum. It's where main RU sicko was talking about usual sick RU stuff.
One of the biggest RU business media groups RBK had stand there. This is the photo of that stand with charade.

It supposed to say RBK is about: Business but for Russians it literally says RBK is about [how everything is] F*CKED UP

Some details from Murz regarding the recent UKR strike of Red Ray ammo warehouse.