hcrof

Beyond the HIMARS, this can also be a task entrusted to "sniper" guns such as the CAESAR for example.
And then as it could be said previously the car parks being quite rare that would mean even more concentrations of ammunition. A lucky shot and bang, there is no more ammunition at all among the Russians. The comings and goings of the trucks will also raise awareness among the local population who will know that something is going on there (the more ammunition there is, the more trucks there are coming in and going out, etc.) and give the information to the Ukrainian army.
Well seen for the example of Mariupol theater but it seems to me that the basements had been planned as anti-bomb shelters, right? (maybe an error on my part). Finally, a simple act of sabotage of the car park could also be sufficient as was sometimes done by the French resistance during the war (there is a fairly well-known episode, incidentally, the Jonzac ammunition depot, 120 ammunition trains etc, explosions for 3 days!).

I take advantage that we talk about this subject and I see many sources on the internet which deny the effect of the destruction of ammunition depots. The funny thing is that when it's a Ukrainian depot they say Ukraine is going to collapse tomorrow and when it's a Russian depot they don't care because even more ammunition is coming . I don't agree with that at all. Yes it is a long process and the effects may not be seen right away. Maybe the Russians have a lot of other ammunition but until each depot is destroyed, these are ammunition that will not fall on the Ukrainian army and which will not kill Ukrainian soldiers or civilians...
And then, the Russian strategy is currently based on mass artillery. The artillery consumes a lot of ammunition and even more in the case of the Russians so it takes large deposits. Scattering them will make things even more difficult for them. It might reduce their loss but it will necessarily reduce their capacity.
We can also look at history, the Soviet one in particular. The great Soviet offensives (of which the Russians are currently dreaming) such as Bagration, Berlin or even Vistula-Oder required enormous concentrations of ammunition (in whole trains, for months) to allow them to use their artillery tactics in mass. After all, phase 1 of these operations was artillery saturation to create the breakthrough, armor only having to exploit it in the operational phase. No ammunition, no artillery. No artillery, no offensive.
I had also been able to read that the Russian artillery had also played a big role in their ability to stop the Ukrainian counter-offensives of the previous months. Without that and in addition by being beaten even more by the Ukrainian artillery, it will be even harder for them. In a way, such is taken who thought he was taking.

Girkin published an update regarding HIMARS work
HIMARS continue to strike RU RU AD could relatively cope with Tochka and Uragan strikes but it is infective against HIMARS massive strikes The following targets were hit in RU near and deep rear areas over the past 5-7 days:
 More than 10 large ammo warehouses [by context - brigade and above]  Several oil depots Around 10 HQs Around 10 temporary barracks Several AD and artillery positions RU suffered heavy human and material losses [Girkin is really upset. HIMARS started to get under RU skin]

I refrain from posting some news/ stuff I'm reading not to flood the forum too much - the difference is that you produce a lot of "original" content with your translations/ summaries of various RU sources, please definitely keep it up! Some ideas/ thoughts about what you could do with it:
Are you familiar with this Dimitri guy from wartranslated.com? He started by puting some translations on Twitter, and had to start a website, as Twitter is not that supportive for longer forms. He got quite a bit of fame from that and is routinely quoted by various "twitter analysts", but also by some quite serious people. We used to post some of his stuff here (most often Girkin) but stopped cause you come up with more and better stuff that him. So some ideas from me:
- if you're after a bit of fame, start putting your content on twitter, or start a website ( runationaliststranslated.com?). If you're not  that tech savvy, some help can be easily organized  You already have all the content needed, just missing the way to expose it to wider audience, and IMO it's a waste for the world
- if you don't care about personal glory at all, how about asking this Dmitry guy to post your content? With your proven track record of delivering Grade A stuff he might be up for it
- failing that, how about some livejournal or other blogging platform
- and if your'e not interested in any of it, by God, please keep posting here!
 
 
 

Well, I still treat information overload seriously. I will try to think how to present it better. 
Back to our topic. I am watching fresh Girkin video. Because it might take some time to process the whole video I am putting here Girkin preliminary assessment of UKR strikes so far.
[UPDATE] I got feeling that 300 km HIMARS missiles > End of War.

Politically the RU is much more vulnerable to UKR retaliatory strikes than UKR to RU initial strikes.
UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that it is the second military power on this planet (after US). RU gov does. UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that UKR Air Defence is impenetrable due to UKR wonder AD weapons (better than puny US Patriot/THAAD). RU gov does UKR gov does not lie to the citizens that it can destroy any UKR target anywhere anytime due to UKR wonder missile weapons. RU gov does. So, politically RU can sustain UKR retaliatory strikes only by intercepting 100% of them plus hitting very accurately a lot of UKR hardened gov targets (the same targets RU was unable to hit at all for several months already). That's not possible. 
I mean RU are hitting UKR targets all over UKR for several months for little political gain. UKR are hitting small set of targets in border regions for less than month and LDNR population is already freaking out, RU Nats already demands to purge RU gov to the last man, and RU population feels increasingly worried. 

Checked interview of RU nationalist expert Maxim Klimov (former RU Navy officer). He was supposed to talk about Mobilization, but they talked about many issues.
Below are notes of the useful bits

Abandoned T-62 was set fire by grenade from the drone. The tank with name FARN (ФАРН) belonged to volunteer battalion "Alania", formed in Northern Osetia. Battalion has T-62M/MV tanks.

 
Some about voluntert battalions, which now are establishing almost in each federal unit of Russia. If recently there were mostly infantry units with some exceptions like "Don" cossack battalion with BMP-2M (but unknown either full battalion set or just a company), that now, as write on LostArmor, many battalions establish like supernumary battalions of regular military units, deployed in different federal units. They wrote, for example, on Far East, on the base of 155th naval infantry brigade, the volunteer battalion was formed with tank company of T-80BV, which were taken from storages and this is as if will be usual structure now likely for mobilization methodic working out.
Next example - volunteer battalion is forming in Nizhniy Novgorod oblast
  
And on LostArmor tell this battalion also will have T-80BV, which are delivering by Il-76 from some distant storages

PS. Information about increasing the squads from 7 to 9 can be about theese volunteer units, which can havn't armored transport but just tank company. Then really instead gunner and driver squads can get two additional riflemens. The same thing was in UKR motorized infantry squads in 2015-2019, which unlike mechanized had only trucks, but had also additional rifleman and 30 men in platoon instead 27 in mech. Then, when motorized units got BRDM-2L their squads also became 7-men

Chornobayivka keeps exploding since early morning:
And some good news regarding Gepards. Nammo was contracted to manufacture the 35mm ammo:
 

"Inside the Ukrainian resistance"
"...Last week saw more mass “filtrations” ... in reality (it) means that occupying forces violently interrogated locals and then deported many to Russia. It’s a system designed for both simplicity and cruelty: cars and trucks and troops arrive in the villages, and then either take locals to a special “facility” or dig a large hole and stuff them in it. The goal is always the same: to turn them into collaborators...yet at the same time, the Russians also try to ingratiate themselves. Key to their efforts is the concept of what they call “swift justice”. The principle is simple: justice through the courts can take forever, so why not let them deliver it instead? Of course, it’s also a way of legitimising violence. Soldiers now accept “complaints” from locals and when they break into houses and administer more beatings, they can say they are merely responding to citizen requests."
The Russians still have some way to go understanding the whole 'Hearts and Minds' concept.

Some more HIMARS pain, now from Girkin
 

Ukranian friends might not agree with my assessment, but the thing is current LDNR public itself can influence nothing jsut like RU public (and does not want to like RU public because it is safer). However, it has two indirect impacts:
First, LDNR civilian public are waking up from RU propaganda that RU state can protect them. RU likes to put military staff around civilians. So, any UKR strikes are really disruptive to civilian life. Also, currently RU looks like it cannot do anything about it. All together it is showing to locals that RU military is a paper tiger and betting on it is bad. That + losses make control over LDNR politically unfeasible. It is like the Snake Island scenario but with a bunch of displeased civilians - what is the point of holding it if you constantly take casualties and face locals who what you to leave them alone? Donetsk mobiks holding the south front are increasingly nervous. They are starting to ask questions about what they are doing here instead of going to Donets to help their families.    

Rail infrastructure starts to be himarsed too:
 

More HIMARS pain from Murz mixed with usual rant against incompetent RU military and visions of 1917 coming.
 

Unfortunately, I am not talking about any of these. Regulars will not mess with NATO. I am talking about Nationalist Initiative Groups as ISIS-like Toyota warriors. These guys do not care if Article 5 is triggered. They do not have the Kremlin or big bunker to hit. They do not have big military bases or big conventional units. They will disappear among civilians as soon as they feel like it. NATO swift response is actually beneficial to them as it means NATO strikes /invasion that justifies their existence.
Arty strikes at border targets. Cross border raid to hit border guard/police units. ATGM/MANPAD ambush. 
Just ask yourself how many Eastern European border units are ready to deal with drone adjusted arty? How many of them are ready to deal with drone coordinated ambush? ATGM/MANPAD ambush? That's where we are heading now unfortunately. 

Interesting percentage of RU aviation doing the work (from the same guy) - for scenario developers.

This is a really good point, and feeds back into the earlier discussions on mass. Russia is in a dilemma - mass the ammo/planes and watch them blow up or disperse them and watch their massed-army structure struggle to perform as intended. I thought himars was a bit of a gimmick before this war but I am happy to be wrong!

Anonymous Ru nationalist linked to VKS discusses RU cope dispersion of warehouses and rear strikes from the point of view VKS.
 

Here's a little gem - a summary of conversation with Dutch guy who was stuck in Kherson city for last few months. I checked his twitter and it looks legit to me.. In short, there's supposed to be a hell of partisan activity there. Given that Kherson citizens were actively protesting the occupation since day 1, taking to the protest on main square for weeks until Russians started shooting at them, I find it quite believable. 
Also, reportedly Lavrov wasn't the most popular kid at the G20 meeting:
 

Something is definitely brewing there. Some hardcore volunteers are already up there. They are working on improving local drone capabilities for cross border strikes. Also, according to RUMINT RU gov already approved raising local volunteer units. But it is being "sabotaged" by local RU regular commanders as volunteer units are seen as uncontrollable partisans (they are indeed uncontrollable partisans with their own agenda).
If the war will not end until September we will see the emergence of another power actor - Nationalist paramilitary. RU ISIS is being born in front of our eyes. 

Kharkiv axis.
Despite news from there tell about some sort of tactical clashes, indeed this potentially can be enough dangerous direction soon, by the opinion of UKR military expert Konstantin Mashovets, on the basis of whose articles I write theese reviews. 
After sudden offensive of UKR troops on N and NE of Kharkiv, which took by surprise LPR conscripts, when in some places UKR troops came on the state border line and became to threaten to Vovchansk, Russian command with some delay reacted on this situation and counter attacked, pushing our forces back from the border in Ternova area and recapturing villages Starytsia, Izbytske, Rubizhne, Zamulivka. Further Russian efforts to come to the Shestakove to cut the road Kharkiv - Staryi Saltiv were unsuccessfull as well as their advance attempts north from Kharkiv, so in last week we can see only tactical figting and artilelry strikes like on relatively stable section of front. 
But today happened alarm thing, which can be both just a probe and the sign of future big activization on the Kharkiv axis, including even new attempt of assault of this city. Today Russian troops in first time since the winter tried to atatck from Kozacha Lopan' (captured UKR border town) to the west in Zolochiv direction. According to FIRMS there were tracks of intesive fire between Sosnivka village and Kozacha Lopan' - Zolochiv road. According to our General Staff report enemy attack was repelled, but who knows what will happen next and whether the Russians will want to synchronize own offensive on Sloviansk with offensive on Kharkiv. 
So, what Russians have on this direction? From Kozacha Lopan' to Oskil river they have at least 8 BTGs from:
- 200th MRB (probably two BTG) of 14th Army Corps of Northern Fleet
- 18th MRD (also tank BTG of this division involved SE from Kharkiv ) and 244th artillery brigade of 11th Army Corps of Baltic Fleet
- 138th MRB, 25th MRB of 6th CAA of Western military district  
- 27th MRB (has a compnay of T-90M) of 1st GTA of Western military district
+ also at least two battalions of LPR conscripts. 
In previous days also volunteer motor-rifle battalion from Northern Fleet sailors was formed as a part of 200th MRB and sent to Ukriane - and I suppose to Kharkiv.
Today Russians moved here one more exotic unit - 80th MRB (arctic) in full composition also of 14th Army Corps of Nothern Fleet. This is "light" brigade, having only two motor-rifle battalions on MT-LBVMK, and articulated tracking carriers DT-10 and DT-30. Motor rifle battalions have only 82 mm mortars, also the brigade has only one artilelry unit - battalion of 2S1 SP-howitzers. 80th brigade deployed behind of units of 138th MRBm which fight on the line Ternova - Verkniy Saltiv
But most bad omen is lurking beyond the border. South west from Belgorod Russians deployed 144th guard motor rifle divisiosn of 20th CAA, Western military district, which completed restoration of combat capabilities after losses in the spring battles. Some regiments of this division have fully deployed third battalions. This is 144th, 254th, 488th MRR, 59th tank regiment, 856th SP-artillery regiment. This grouping is almost comparable by own strenghth with Popasna group and there are some doubts that this fist deployed only for protection of Belgorod from "UKR nazi invasion"
 

I found the video of recent skirmish in the Gray Zone - UKR detachment discovered by RU drone, shelled by mortars and got into an ambush, coordinated by drone operator. Unfortunately, it contains UKR wounded and dead soldiers. So, I am not posting it. Instead, I am posting a short description. This is how modern skirmish between drone ready and not drone ready infantry looks like. While I was writing it the video got blocked. But anything you need to know is below. Guys from Territorial units, this is especially for you. This is what you will face because RU will unlikely to throw at you the conventional forces (NATO article 5) but will instead initiate cross border raids by hardcore volunteer units like you see below.
Keep in mind my ImageShak account is for some reason a trial so most likely it will disappear in 25 days. Tell me if you need me to clarify anything.

1917 in RU culture is uncontrollable riot destroying the State and not somebody challenging the State. This is what RU Nats means when they refer to it. It is like they are shouting to RU gov that unless RU gov listens to them and reforms (aka betrays) some servants there will be uncontrollable riot that kills all of them together with the State.
Unlike US it is a very real scenario. RU is heading there right now. So, RU Nats are right from my point of view. However, it will happen only when all other options (all sorts of coups) fail. 

There is new Murz rant. Every emotional as well - seems to be still feeling the pain from all recent warehouses strikes.
Unlike the previous one this one is more interesting. I decided to fully translate it. But you do not need to read it if you got tired of realistic assessment of RU MOD intellectual capabilities (Yes, they are really bad. RU grassroot volunteers is a different matter altogether). Basically, it is part of the ongoing RU Nats debate about extremely poor RU MOD performance and lack of RU state will to reform it. Funny thing - RU Nats are stuck now. They understand that the whole system is rotten [took them only 20 years and the war] and that RU state is not going to reform it. But cannot suggest replacing it "from the bottom" aka Maidan [only UKR pigs make Maidan against corrupt and rotten state, Glorius Russians s*ck it to the end]. Their conclusion (including Murz) - RU is heading toward uncontrollable 1917 rebellion and civil war [RU revolt is senseless and merciless as Pushkin said or African scenario as @The_Capt said].
 
Last thing I would like to mention - the rant is Murz's reply to Rostislav Morkenko rant. Rostislav is interesting RU tactical author. He is Girkin kind of man - being nobody (he is not even from military, but Police background, probably militarized prison camp guards) he managed to become a well-known due to apparent talent. But unlike Girkin (who is well known for his practical work of igniting the war in 2014), Rostislav can be considered as unofficial modern RU tactical theoretician.
If you can find his [Defence of] Gadukin Bridge (and historical Bloody Sand) I strongly recommend reading it. It is RU modern and extended versions of classical Defence of the duffer's drift with some time travel. I believe once translated it will be studied by NATO as an notable example RU modern, competent and creative BMP-3 platoon tactics (and by approximation any RU mech-motorized platoon).
Guys who want to study what to expect from competent RU commander - the title is Гадюкинский мост, или Девять жизней лейтенанта Суровова. The only disadvantage is it was written before the appearance of drones at platoon level. 

Permit me a bit of COMPLETE speculation. No one in the Western world has fought a war anything like this since 1945. And in a lot of ways even the worst of WW2 wasn't this intense of the U.S.. The Colonel is watching people he trained a month ago die in significant numbers, he is training more units that he nows knows with brutal certainty will be committed to the same kind of combat. As outstanding as his military education and prior service has been, it just didn't prepare him for this.
No one east of the Rhine has faced anything like this 1918, it has to be a terrible burden to be doing all he can and yet be unable to keep all the people he is training alive. he is more than allowed to have a bad attitude. He knows in his bones the price the Ukrainians are paying to boil the frog slowly. The Ukrainians keep going because the Russians have made it utterly clear that they can die in battle, or after the Russians have destroyed everything they hold dear and made them watch.
The Colonel deserves our absolute respect for showing up and doing everything he can. He is more than forgiven for feeling less than cheerful about it. The Ukrainians deserve essentially unlimited and unconditional support for taking on this fight, and MAYBE, just MAYBE keeping the 21st century from going off the rails as badly as the 20th did. The very least the rest of us can do is annoy the BLEEP out of or elected representatives to send everything that can be sent as fast as the logistics channels can move it. Voting Scholz right out of the building would be an excellent place to start. Remember NATO can end this end in three days if it is willing to call the Russians bluff about starting WW3. My opinion is that it clearly IS a bluff. The Russians haven't doubled down and started shooting at Polish supply points after at least sixty thousand casualties and perhaps twice that, it isn't even clear that they know how many. Since most of the wars in history have started over one hundredth that level of provocation, it is pretty clear to me they don't want to start one. 
One guys opinion, thanks for reading it if you made it this far. WRITE YOUR CONGRESSPERSON/MP.

Abouit Zaporizhzhia axis, "blanc spot" of this war. 
As I told in previous post about Kherson oblast, Russians had a plans to develop own advance toward Zaporizhzhia from Vasylivka - Polohy line, but likely UKR Inhuleys crossing and preventive artillery strike on concentrated forced, ready to attack foiled Russian plans. So, since start of June Zaporizhzhia direction became minor in Russian priorities and also became a source of reinforcements for Kherson grouping. 
If in previous times Russians fiercely shelled and assaulted our positions on Orikhove - Huliaypole line  - most useful place for attack on Zaporizhzhia, then now situation changed and UKR forces are very slowly but steady pushing Russians back. The war in this area also is going on like series of artillery duels and limited infantry probes "from this tree-plant to next tree-plant" if artillery strikes were successfull. 
Now Ukrainian troops are trying to approach to Vasylivka and Polohy, but Russians in the same way fiercly defending around Shcherbaky, Stepove and Nesterianka villages on Vasylivla direction and near Inzhenerne on Polohy direction.
The main burden of warfare from Russian side here is borne units of 58th CAA, particulary 42nd GMRD and 19th MRD. Interesting, that 42nd division being dislocated in Chechnya and 19th in Northern Osetia, so there are many Caucasians serve there and population of occupied territories often thinks that this is "Kadyrov's troops", but this is not true. 
There is knowingly that 503rd GMRR of 19th MRD fights for Polohy and 83rd air-assault brigade fights in area of Shcherbaky - Stepove, but as I told yesterday BTG of this brigade removed to Kherson direction as well as BTG of 429th MRR of 42nd division from Tokmak town area. Also knowingly about 177th separate naval infantry regiment BTG(s?) of Caspian Sea flotilia and 22nd Spetsnaz brigade (Southern military district) involvement on Zaporizhzhia front.
The length of southern front is too wide, Russians also need a forces to defend rear objects like Tokmak, Melitopol, Vasylivka, I don't tell now about eastern part of this front from Velyka Novosilka to Vuhledar, where Russians also have problems. And only relatively small number of Ukrainian troops there doesn't allow us to make decisive breakthroughs.