hcrof
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Posts posted by hcrof
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Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro River east of Kherson City for the second day in a row on July 20.[23] Head of the Russian-backed Kherson Occupation Administration Vladimir Saldo announced that the bridge is closed to freight traffic for repairs but that it remains open to passenger vehicles.[24] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated that the Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge have made it impossible for Russian forces to transport heavy equipment across the bridge
From ISW - seems like the bridge in Kherson has indeed got a weight limit on it that prevents movement of trucks or military vehicles.
Now they need to disrupt the rail line too!
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17 minutes ago, Huba said:
RU commentators are afraid of another "goodwill gesture"
Loving the guy that says 15cm of steel will protect the bridge - genius! Just give up trying to run vehicles on it as well
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14 minutes ago, Huba said:
That exactly. Classic siege artillery work here- hitting the same spot for cumulative damage, eventually resulting in total destruction.
This is true, and also means you only need to repair one span if you only destroy one span.
On the other hand, the Russians may find it easier to reinforce a single damaged span, for example by laying a tank bridge over the damaged section. That is only a temporary solution though, unless they can solve the himars problem so let's hope the Russians retreat before more damage is done (and forget to blow the bridge properly).
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20 minutes ago, Huba said:
Another video of the bridge - it looks like taking it down will require quite many rockets - 18 fired so far, probably at least 50 in total will be needed. Totally worth it I think.
I'm on my phone but it looks like at least one of the main beams has been badly damaged(?), which will result in weight restrictions if true. Cars are not that heavy (car parks are very lightly built) but military vehicles might be more of a problem already.
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Grigb thanks for all the great material today! Do you think RU is going to push out of Kherson or are they just preparing for a UA offensive?
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15 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Girki regarding today's lack of decision during Emergency meeting of the State Duma on July 15, 2022
This was the much hyped extraordinary session right? And they decided nothing?
How much ability does the Duma have to set or change the agenda? Some people say they just rubber stamp what the Kremlin says but it would be strange in this case for the Kremlin to organise this session for no reason!
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3 minutes ago, Huba said:
I think it's like @Grigb said, it's just an load-bearing structure to be covered with earth/ sandbags which provide most of the cover. Surely beats wooden constructions in every way.
True, but unlike WW2, it can be spotted by a drone and destroyed by mortar fire even if it is in a defilade position with earth on top of it - seems like a bit of a deathtrap to me but I might be wrong
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14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1547308890659983365
Interesting picture of Russian fortifications being transported in Southern front.
This is actually quite curious how much money, work and materials Russians want to invest into constructing those defensive lines. I have a feeling they will be hard nut to crack for UA army if it push its offensive.
I am struggling to understand how those will be used as fortifications - by themselves the concrete is so thin it will probably not stop a 12.7mm round but if you piled earth against it you would not be able to spot out of the windows?
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10 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:
NATO posted an animated video today replying to some commonly heard talking points we hear from Putin's government and its sympathizers about the organization.
I don't want to sound cynical but that video is not going to convince many of the useful idiots...
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12 minutes ago, Huba said:
IMO the crossing on the dam is no less vulnerable than other bridges, guessingby how it is built, but I'd be happy to hear another opinion. As for bridges vulnerability, I guess the spans can be taken out with enough rounds - M30 weihgts 90kg and travels at mach 2.5, that's more kinetic energy than round from 2S4. And you can keep hitting the same spot until it fails.
I think the only people who know how many rockets will take out a bridge have higher security clearance than we do. With the right software it is perfectly possible to model exactly what the effects of an explosion on any part of the bridge would be but most engineers don't do that as their day job!
Edit: for context, engineers would model very generic scenarios for accidental or deliberate damage to bridges but other than vehicle impacts you can't really predict an attack well enough to deliberately design for it.
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12 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Looks like RU finally started to send secret directive to talk about Peace deal. Khodakovsku [Vostok battalion commander] today.
If I understand this right, he thinks that the RU government will push for a peace deal based on the current territory occupied by Russia?
If so, he is in for a rude suprise because the Ukrainian people will never accept that any time soon. I imagine the bare minimum is the return of the southern coast before UKR is willing to discuss anything. (Obviously UKR would rather pre-2014 borders but the reality will be somewhere in between unless RU really does implode)
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22 minutes ago, FancyCat said:
O'Brien lays out why this attack is so bad for Russia. Putting parts of it below.
I am not surprised the Russians did not adapt before, even though they knew himars were incoming. Moving ammo dumps sounds like the sort of annoying task that is always going to be done after something seemingly more urgent, especially for an overworked staff like the Russians have got.
I think saying they can't adapt is a bit strong though - they have to adapt. They have quite a dilemma though - disperse the dumps and disrupt an already straining logistics system, while pulling infantry off the front line for rear security, or move them back by 85km which is a very long drive, or do nothing and watch stuff go boom.
what I expect to see though is that they will stop piling ammo up in heaps and start using berms and pits etc. They knew they needed to do that already, they were just too ill-disciplined. That will change when their lives are on the line.
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7 minutes ago, Huba said:
Movement has stalled mostly, nothing spectacular after retread from Lysychansk. It look like it can change very soon as UA is pushing in Kherson.
In other news, an extremely informative threat about UA armor, really worth reading:
That is a really good thread.
I was interested in the effectiveness of HE against tanks. I have always thought that 120+mm HE is a very big bang and even if it doesn't penetrate the armour it will wreck the gun/sights/tracks etc and possibly deafen/injure the crew. At what point does it not matter how much armour you have if people are chucking such huge HE shells at you?
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3 minutes ago, Jammason said:
I'm here to be educated, so please elaborate. Note most of this is opinion, so it feels odd to be accused of lying. I'm also not sure "everything is wrong". To summarize:
- Russia's losses have been great
- They (Russia) are slowly taking/destroying the Donbas
- Sanctions can be skirted
- Trump presidency isn't out of the question and would be a good thing for Russia
- NATO is unlikely to let UKR in while they are in an active war with Russia
- Russia appears to be in this for the long haul
If that's *all* wrong, please, do tell.
I would love to see the source of the claim that the donbas contributes 80-90% of Ukraine GDP - what about all the cities of the west, including the capital, where the vast majority of Ukrainian people live?
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4 minutes ago, acrashb said:
What does Boris Johnson’s resignation mean for Ukraine? (ukrainetoday.org)
I agree with the premises of the article.
Yep, that article sums it up pretty well. The conservative party is pretty anti Russia at the moment and even the Opposition parties are not exactly fond of Russia either.
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20 minutes ago, Grigb said:
This is a really good point, and feeds back into the earlier discussions on mass. Russia is in a dilemma - mass the ammo/planes and watch them blow up or disperse them and watch their massed-army structure struggle to perform as intended. I thought himars was a bit of a gimmick before this war but I am happy to be wrong!
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25 minutes ago, Grigb said:
Interesting quote, thanks!
What is your assessment of the 1917 scenario? Is it hot air like those in America expecting imminent civil war or is there actually an alternative power structure that could challenge the state but is not able to carry out a quick coup?
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20 minutes ago, Holien said:
Prove us wrong let's see you post something useful
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I know who has provided us lots of useful information and I appreciate his time and effort in doing that and it ain't you...
Sorry but why do the Russian speaking members of this forum have to be held up to a higher standard than anyone else? They are not obliged to provide anything, although I am very grateful they do.
Can we just keep it civil please? Disagreement is ok, and being disrespectful to people who you disagree with is not a good way of encouraging a free conversation.
Edit: just to be clear this is not aimed at only you, it's just I don't want this thread turning into a self-reinforcing echo chamber and I want to hear the "russian" narrative as long as it is expressed respectfully
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25 minutes ago, Grigb said:
RU budget is to be sequestered - civilian Girkin (Nesmyan)
What does sequestered mean in this case? Reduced?
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13 minutes ago, Grigb said:
So, you are not denying the comment about ammo I showed, comrade. Now you need to check carefully my comments to see that I use "comrade" in very specific circumstances and far from your "every comment" claim. I mean it is obvious that in last several comments you pushed two RU propaganda talking points, quote:
- There is no such thing like "RU nationalists"
- In short, the Russian Federation has weapons and ammunition to the ass"
On top of that you tried to hide the fact you are Russian, quote I'm ordinary man in one Eastern-european dictatorship.
Russian who tried to hide that fact he is Russian and produces RU propaganda talking point... Ok, may be you are Belarus Luka supporter but it the same **** basically. So, my use of "comrade" is logical and factual based. Unlike your propaganda activities.
To be fair, I think English speakers like me can make our own decisions based on the multiple russian speaking sources here. I am personally interested in what the pro russian arguments are so I know how people think (and also to feel like I am not in an echo chamber!)
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6 minutes ago, Jammason said:
So the hot war of independence for DPR & LPR that started in 2014 (and gained momentum with civilian protests) is all Russian puppeteering and the puppets actually don't want independence at all? I'm curious: If a honest referendum (impossible, I know, but humor me) was held in DPR and LPR today, what is your percentage estimate of voters who would favor rejoining Ukraine over independence?
The problem is that nobody even knows how many people live in the donbas, let alone their political stance. We know there are pro russian people there, but a majority? And what about all the pro Ukraine people who left after Russia took over?
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1 minute ago, Artkin said:
I'm surprised that flimsy house held together with such a massive crater next to it. Maybe the earth under the road was just very soft?
You usually get results exactly like this in CM, and it surprises me. I would have expected that house to be flattened.
I would expect that tin roof to be torn off by the overpressure wave (or subsequent suction), even if the blast was directed upwards by soft ground, but those guys do seem to be reattaching it so maybe that did happen. But the facade of the red building is spotless!
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8 minutes ago, Taranis said:
"A residential area hit by a Russian missile, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, June 26, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"
What is up with that picture? The glass in the red building is not even blown out next to that huge crater??? And the telephone pole is still standing?
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17 minutes ago, Grigb said:
The State Duma proposed to allow military contracts immediately after the draft
They are preparing to send kids to the fight. Well, not to the fight, just very close, to the areas UKR is going to pass after penetration of forward line.
So much for refusing to send conscripts to the front... These kids (presumably hauling ammo etc) will not get proper training but instead will end up being chewed up like the donbas cannon fodder
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
Agreed, by the time the engineers finish their assessment the campaign in Kherson will be over.
But I have a feeling that the Russians will just do an "accelerated" assessment by driving trucks over it anyway and watching what happens...