Offshoot

"But in addition to African countries, white markers are also on...New Zealand's Chatham Island." I smell a troll. There are maybe 800 people there, though it's possible he wants to own the time zone and be the first to know what is happening tomorrow.

And an article on the use of Patriot systems in Ukraine: Ukrainian air defense uses Patriot systems in ways that surprised the US - https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-air-defense-uses-patriot-systems-in-ways-that-surprised-us-expert-interview-50326688.html

Regarding Prigozhin's recent outbursts, here is an interview with a Russian journalist who has written about the power struggle between the different clans surrounding Putin. He contends that the clan wars have started and that Putin is weakening and indecisive - https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html The original article this interview is based on (also linked in the interview) - https://istories.media/en/opinions/2023/01/09/in-russia-a-clan-war-for-putins-throne-has-begun-who-will-win/

DeepState has it marked as well - https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/50.4468/35.5984

Russian helicopters around Belgorod are flying pretty low

-Russian propagandists acknowledge ammo shortages -Apparently Russia has had ammo shortages for over two centuries now -Simonyan suggests people go to the ammo factories for 2 hours after work to help make ammo -Solovyov stands up for industry and mansplains it is about capacity and not manpower -The take home message is that good Russians should stop moaning about it and Russia is all alone anyway https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1L_bs4hCOQ&t=2s

For context, the statement about having a monopoly on violence in the video I linked pertains to a comment by a Communist Party member of the Duma who had a spat with Prigozhin: "[The state] must possess an absolute monopoly over the formation, development and use of military force. There can be no private military companies." So I think "violence" in this case applies primarily to warfare and not to off-book assassinations or general state thuggery. By having Wagner fight in Ukraine, at least the illusion of a state monopoly is broken.

Maybe there is still a distinction between the Russian state and the Putinist state in that the Russian state is the visible aspect. So the Russian state has lost it's monopoly on violence (as the Communist Party Duma member says, PMCs are still illegal in Russia) but the Putinist state undertook a compelled outsourcing of violence. He is reading tea leaves like everyone, but I am pleased that he is academically honest and acknowledges this himself by stating how the lack of transparency in the Putin regime makes it difficult to get a picture of what is going on.

On the subject of change, Vlad Vexler has just released a video on the reformatting, some of it semi-reluctant, of Russian political systems and society - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3XyDmR7vXA This is seen through the lens of the Wagner-MoD tussles and a recent statement by some Russian soldiers who complained about their conditions and asked to be able to leave and join Wagner instead. He likens it to Putin taking the Russian bus offroad (invading Ukraine) to keep everyone on the bus but running into mud and having to do more reformatting to compensate. He also covers Putin's use of Prigozhin to triangulate the pillars of power and how to use the current events as a window into the stability of the Russian regime. It's long but the pith is covered in the first half.

The answers to these questions do not have to be static. For a long time Prigozhin denied any connection to Wagner but in the past year has become the very public and outspoken face of it, gaining the public political support he lacked and the devotion of his cadre. Also in the past year Wagner have secured income flow from Africa, so theoretically they could be less tied to the MoD for logistics. It doesn't necessarily mean that Prigozhin is trying to be a player and make a tilt for power. He could be doing what Putin is doing and carving out a more secure space for himself so that Putin cannot just easily replace him. From lap dog to guard dog. EDIT: OK, I didn't read far enough before posting. I see you have talked about Prigozhin "making a splash".

As a flip side to the discussion on the rebuilding of Ukraine, this is an interesting article on the current situation in Mariupol: ‘It’s like the USSR’: residents on life in Mariupol a year since Russian occupation - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/18/its-like-the-ussr-residents-on-life-in-mariupol-a-year-since-russian-occupation And some before and after aerial photos of Bakhmut: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/may/18/stark-before-and-after-images-reveal-the-obliteration-of-bakhmut

Lysenko would be proud - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism And to stir the pot a bit, don't forget about epigenetics and the genetic transmission of trauma - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6127768/ If it is an actual phenomenon in humans, I would say it plays a far greater role in the outlook of Russian society than the underlying gene pool.

The original source, who actually took the photos

A "light" article on the development of this FPV UGV with a few details - https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/army-of-ground-drones/

I'm not sure there were that many in the bunker. At about the 2:36 mark you see a guy running from right to left on the screen and a couple of guys already in the scrub under the power pole where they meet. I think half of the dozen had come from another position to reinforce or help with evacuation. These guys certainly weren't like the ones robbing their comrade.

There is a group in Australia called the Australian Cossacks. Their leader has been hiding in the Russian consulate since December to avoid criminal charges and asked Wagner to organise a prisoner swap, exchanging him for a future captured Australian volunteer in Ukraine - https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/hiding-in-the-russian-consulate-for-months-aussie-cossack-demands-a-prisoner-swap-20230405-p5cyb5.html

An article about the expected Ukrainian offensive based mainly on the thoughts of Roman Kostenko, a special forces colonel and chair of the Kyiv parliament’s intelligence and security committee - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/12/ukraine-prepares-to-take-back-territory-from-russia-step-by-step-roman-kostenko Nothing surprising here, but it does stand in contrast to a lot of expectations. -"Ukraine’s long-anticipated push should be understood as a rolling “spring-summer campaign” against an entrenched and powerful adversary" that will proceed in stages -First stage: strikes against logistical targets (started) -Second stage: strikes against command and control centres (likely started) -No major frontal offensive until these stages weaken Russia's capabilities -On locations: Dnipro is a grey zone where it is difficult to hold positions; the distances and fortifications involved in Zaporizhzhia are formidable and the region is heavily mined; favours attacking Bryansk

Zelensky is pouring cold water on this or dissimulating - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65550427 "Speaking at his headquarters in Kyiv, President Zelensky described combat brigades, some of which were trained by Nato countries, as being "ready" but said the army still needed "some things", including armoured vehicles that were "arriving in batches". "With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful," he said in an interview for public service broadcasters who are members of Eurovision News, like the BBC. "But we'd lose a lot of people. I think that's unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.""

I'm sorry, I didn't realise my purpose here was to win the Ukrainian war. I will copyright my own book: "How posting on forums wins wars, but only if you have a high horse"

No doubt for some they are just war porn, but also: Because no matter how narrow, it can still be a view of reality. Because multiple narrow views of reality can be compiled to provide a wider view. Because there is more to war than just strategic, operational and even tactical views, such as the personal view. The videos can provide a view into the personal experiences of people directly involved in the war.

A longer, more complete video of the Russian surrendering via drone. It looks like this happened while combat continued, unless the Russians were prepared to spend shells to try and kill the surrendering guy. https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/13e9b7g/a_longer_video_of_the_russian_surrendering_to_a/

It depends on what it symbolises. Vlad Vexler discussed the parade and noted that it was disgusting because it highlighted how Putin has co-opted or privatised the Great Patriotic War myth, equating himself as an individual with it - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=APGtuQ7JAFs&t=278s It's likely they couldn't get the usual number of tanks, so rather than have a diminished parade they cut it down completely to have just the traditional and symbolic T34. In this case, however, it could symbolise for them the solitary Putin, the embodiment of the Russian state, standing heroically and by himself against the rest of the world. It does look bad to the rest of the world but Putin is already "at war" with them, so he doesn't care. It was all for domestic purposes.

Russia deporting ships from Sevastopol too, according to Ukrainian intelligence - https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16651

Just to add, the Kremlin is claiming it took out the drones, thereby making out that their air defences are not suspect or weak: "“Two unmanned aerial vehicles were aimed at the Kremlin. As a result of timely actions taken by the military and special services with the use of radar warfare systems, the vehicles were put out of action,” the Kremlin press service said. It said that debris from the drone “fell on the territory of the Kremlin”." - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/03/russia-accuses-ukraine-of-trying-to-kill-vladimir-putin-with-kremlin-drone-strike Of course, it is the sort of excuse you would expect them to use in the case of either a real or a false flag attack.

That was just the beginning "trailer", which shows some very short clips from the longer video. The actual sequence of events is shown clearly later with an explanation.