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Lethaface

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Posts posted by Lethaface

  1. 41 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

    Dumb question of the day:  how does degrading RU naval capabilities affect the war?  Because these ships launch missiles at UKR?  Because these ships would attack other shipping?  To some here may seem dumb question, but seriously what does this achieve?  I get how much fun this is to watch, but since it's a land war what does this do?

    If ultimately there is no more Black Sea Fleet good enough to protect any Russian shipping / ports in the Black Sea and it's ports, that might become problematic for any Russian shipping in the Black Sea. (and like others said, will help allow Ukraine shipping)

  2. 35 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

    I mean I enjoy Germany-bashing and Poland-bashing about as much (normal are neighbour relations, I think) but that chart with contributions should definitely be per-capita. Then the whole discussion would probably be "why are we giving so much money to Hungary?"

     

    The problem is more with Orban's oligarch tendencies than those numbers imo.

  3. 3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

    I want to highlight what Haiduk stated here.

    I've been waiting for a strike on the BSF HQ on this scale for the entire war.  Aside from a small attack early on, which small enough that most here probably forgot it happened, the Black Sea Fleet has been able to work out of this building specifically and Sevastopol generally, with impunity.  This week?  Not so much.

    Hitting the HQ after smashing a few ships seems to me a very smart psychological approach.  Building up to this strike establishes escalation, and escalation breeds uncertainty which can then lead to panic.  Smashing the HQ first might have caused some naval targets to move before Ukraine had a chance to strike them.  This way, the panic is after.

    Smart.

    I agree with Haiduk that this strike on the HQ has meaning and ramifications well beyond the physical damage.  One thing is Russia is going to have to relocate it's large fixed command centers after this and the 58th CAA HQ was hit (also this week).  Russia has already had to pull back its more forward HQs, now it has to pull back its HQs far to the rear.  It's not impossible to continue overseeing this war from Vladivostok, but it sure will be a lot harder! 

    If there's one thing we know about Russia's capabilities, they never ever have recovered from a setback.  Adapted?  Sure, but as our own beloved BFC Elvis loves to say... if Plan B was as good as Plan A then it would be Plan A.

    Steve

    Thanks for shedding more light on the potential worth of the target. 

  4. 12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

    Steve above highlighted the ISW report saying UKR now has vehicles & armor behind some layers of RU's defense lines.  I saw this last night and was quite excited and agree w Steve that 'maybe' cutting Tokmak is in play.  One of my dog walk neighbors predicted that "UKR would breakthrough within a week".  His prediction runs through Sept 24 so we'll find out is this guy was a prophet soon I guess.

    I find it particularly interesting that RU seems unable to completely stop UKR in this region despite denuding other fronts of resources.  A very good sign.

    To be honest I don't really pay much attention towards predictions anymore, nobody can predict this stuff without inside info, if even anyone with inside info can do it better compared to the average tarot card layer.

    That being said, since last week orso there have been various positive developments. I think it's too early to say these developments will actually bring tangible changes beyond the intrinsic value/impact of the strikes/achievements themselves. But positive signs they are.

  5. 51 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    NBC site is blocked somehow, do they specify the numbers? "Small" can range anything from several to low hundreds.

    AFAIK they don't have that many to begin with. So if it is true I guess small will be more like 20 than 200. Anyway it might help decision making in Germany for sending (small number of) Taurus and or other countries. 
    All in all I don't see such developments making a crucial difference, given what Ukr is already achieving. But it could allow extra strikes against important targets, like the strike against the drydock. 
    On the other hand, if Ukraine would be able to source hundreds of extra long range precision cruise/ballistic missiles it could make a large impact.

  6. 3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

    This...

    ... and this precisely.

    Nobody doubts what the Polish people have done for Ukraine. But other countries (incl. Germany) have also taken many, many refugees. And other countries (incl. Germany) have contributed equipment from their active units or equipment that was supposed to go to active units. And yes, Poland has contributed equipment that was supposed to be replaced, anyway. That's perfectly ok because other countries did that, too, or sent stuff that has been deprecated already (Leopard 1s).

    What other governments didn't do was try to squeeze out every little bit of profit there was to gain for their election campaigns. Other governments didn't claim the moral high ground the way the Polish government did. Others also didn't spread anti EU and anti Getmany sentiments while gladly taking their money. He who lives by the sword, dies by the sword, as the saying goes. So, if the Polish government sings the song of solidarity with Ukraine, while bashing others, they had better make good on their words.

    Anyway, let's not escalate this too much. Scholz & Co deserved a lot of the criticism they received and we German forumites just had to deal with it. I think the Polish government had this coming a long way, so the Polish members here will have to just deal with it, too. I admit to enjoying some Schadenfreude but I'll enjoy it quitely.

    :D Guilty as well. I think it would be a good name for a beer, 'Schadenfreude, best enjoyed silently'

  7. 35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    True, but bashing is not equal to other bashing, especially when dipped in clear historical prejudice and based on some made-up facts. Also, none of us here spoke negatively about average German citizen nor throw epithets that he is greedy and arrogant, like user who started this entire issue habitually do to Central Europeans in general. Hell, not even about DE government, and if you remember we criticized it pretty strongly together with our German members trying to figure out what it was about. I think you were the part of it. 😉

    I agree that Aragorn, at times, can put things out of proportion and or have a certain bias I don't necessarily share. In fact, the war in Ukraine is probably one of the not so many subjects I mostly agree with him about.

    At the same time there are also posters here on the other side of the spectrum, blaming all west Europeans for thinking of East Europeans as lesser (I'm not thinking about you, nor do I think that way). Among other things.

    And yes part of the critics regarding Germany were very on point. I do personally think there is to be made fair criticism against Poland/PiS too, although mostly outside of their conduct in this war. 
    But you know how the media work, they're going to create as much drama as possible. First with Germany, now with Poland. Since I don't like PiS, my opinion is: fair game.

    There is also much critical to say about our (NL) government (at least I do), although regarding Ukraine they have done quite well so far.

    35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    Not at all, this issue was adressed multiple times. Basically, such tables can tell you very little, as they describe only stiff netto numbers and not include differences in value of workforce, massive advantages in new markets, fluctuations of capital (material and intellectual), pruposful tax evasion by some countries, brain drainage etc. If somebody thinks that EU decision-makers suddelnly, collectively get out of their minds and did giant job of convincing their population to enlarge Union on pure whim - then I'd call him to read a little more on the process...

    All the lists have limited value. These ones and the ones about who gave the most in support to Ukraine. 

    I do think it is important to realize that all the average people in EU/Europe are impacted by the consequences of the war and our support for Ukraine. If one will leave the ship (or talks about leaving), it is not unlikely others will follow. Poland playing hardball by itself, because national economic interests, is sort of openings pandora's box. 
    Therefore I think criticism is very much fair, even (or especially) if it was only election rhetoric with no real consequences other than the impact from media.
    If you are PM you know very well how your words will be spinned. Your PM seems above average with regards to skill in playing that game.

     

    35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    Ok, let's go forward into more productive topics folks.

    So soon? 😜 but i agree, I had my fun already.

  8. 4 minutes ago, Snols said:

    After WoW ("Wolski o Wojnie") FB and YT account. About polish support. Autotranslate from his FB post:

    "

    I see that the manipulation of Morawiecki's statement is beginning, and yet both fragments can be directly quoted:

    "We will certainly not risk Ukraine's security, which is why our hub in Rzeszów, in consultation with the Americans and NATO, continues to play the same role as before. And it will continue to do so."

    Nothing more needs to be added here. Supplies of materials for the defense of Ukraine have been, are and will continue.
    However, the second fragment manipulated in the message:

    "We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves
    with the most modern weapons. If you don't want to defend yourself, you must have SOMETHING to defend yourself - this is our principle. And that is why we have made increased orders (...) we are focusing on quickly arming the Polish army."

    Of course, the statement is taken out of context and manipulated, but this is the truth: while other large NATO countries give equipment from arms depots after disbanded units, Poland is the only country with numerous land forces that donated equipment taken from the lines. Taken from Polish soldiers from line units. The Germans are giving museum equipment - Leopard 1A5s, which even the Ukrainians did not want to accept. We are giving Leopard 2s that we are taking from the line in 10BKPanc, we are giving a battalion of Wolverines that we are taking from 17WBZ, we have given and are still giving "Twarde" PT-91s taken from the lines in Braniewo and Giżycko.
    More than 270 T72M1/M1Rs donated to Ukraine were tanks freshly renovated from frontline units of the Polish Armed Forces.
    In 2019, Poland nominally had 861 tanks. We donated approximately 350 of these to Ukraine.
    40%! No one has given more than us in relation to the armed forces. Artillery?
    By spring 2022, the Polish Armed Forces received approximately 82 Krab AHS. 54.65% went to Ukraine! I ignore deliveries from this year. There are many such examples. No one gave as much as Poland and as quickly as Poland. We simply don't have anything to give anymore. Because we have already taken it from a Polish soldier to give it to a Ukrainian one. We temporarily weakened the Polish Armed Forces, but thanks to the fact that equipment from Poland saved Ukraine, our security per se increased - by stopping Russian imperialism on the battlefield and by bleeding the Russian Armed Forces. In return, we buy new equipment, but these purchases - due to the need - are not optimal - we buy them on different terms because we have no choice. And the equipment is just arriving. We will close the gap for approximately 30-40% of the Land Forces by at least 2027-2028.
    I really hope that the ill-considered statements of the Ukrainian side and the row over grain are the result of the position of the oligarchs and the quality of the political class in Ukraine, and not a cynical conclusion that we have already given everything we could give...

    Please forward the entry. It will not make up for the damage that an ill-considered and out-of-context tweet from the Prime Minister's statement (from the PRM account) will make up for, but maybe it will explain the situation a little better."

    Pleas consider this before writing bull**** about Poland support and selfishness.

     

    You are (also) manipulating yourself here. Germany has given Leo2A6, among other stuff which aren't museum pieces. But I'll digress, I just think it is funny when people who do like bashing can't take bashing themselves.

  9. 2 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

    Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.

    So how about everyone calms their tits?

     

    If I had m :D

    I think you have a fair point. Personally I feel Poland (especially the Polish people) was an important force behind the support of Ukraine after the war started and probably / hopefully still will be.

    At the same time, on this forum (and beyond) it was German bashing day for quite a while because of, mostly, stupid words by German politicians. There were also lists about who has the largest support stick and Germany was frowned upon for not playing their part. 

    In the meantime Germany has been growing their stick relatively and absolutely (as some had expected) and generally says less stupid stuff.

    Now Polish PM says some stupid stuff, which amounts to 'our farmers will lose money because of Ukraine grain and we don't like what Ukr says, so now we will stop all military support'. (everybody lost money because of Ukraine and sometimes they can be a bit rude with their requests. But hell they are in a war).
    And now 'the media' does the exact same thing to Poland as what they did to Germany earlier. If you don't like the heat, stay out of the kitchen.

    And especially since the Polish government were happy to jump on German bash bandwagon themselves not too long ago, I think this is a form of tit for tat which they will just have to take on the chin like a man.  'wie een bal kaatst ...' 

     

  10. On 9/20/2023 at 8:00 PM, The_Capt said:

    You and Pinker are kinda making my point.  Right so we firmly establish that this current war is indeed not A World War because it falls under a certain (arbitrary) scale on a single metric of loss of life.  So what?  Do we feel better?  Do we have a better frame or lens through which to look at this war?  How does that offer one wit of anything valuable to the analysis?  

    And by fixating we are missing the larger picture: sure this isn't a World War (and no one has jumped in with legal of diplomatic definitions) - but it is a Global one.  It is having global effects on security and collective defence, food security, human security, nuclear warfare deterence and the role of the UN and global order to name a few.  This war will very likely change the cultures of Ukraine and Russia in ways we cannot even see yet.  It is shifting power dynamics in a region which again has global repurcutions.  Within the information space this war has gone global with open source and information warfare happening everywhere (even here).  In reality, I am not entirely sure if a war can be truly "small" anymore; however, this one definitely is not.  So beyond drawing arbitrary lines on narrow metrics todays fixation, like a lot of them in this vein, completely misses the point.

    The larger picture you mention here (Global) is a 'critical' understanding imo. If documentaries about key turning points in history will still be produced in a hundred years I guess there will be a couple of interesting episodes about what happened /changed during and after the invasion of Ukraine in feb 2022.

     

  11. On 9/20/2023 at 3:42 AM, The_Capt said:

    My largest issue with his entire argument was reducing war to statistical deaths.  War is violent but on many levels and more often the psychological scars on an entire society can leave impacts far beyond body counts.  Vietnam had an enormous impact on the US collective psyche well out of proportion of deaths compared to WW2…and then we have Blackhawk Down.  

    Pinker misses the relativity of war on a micro-social and then how that can spread to macro.  So his entire thesis - we are getting more peaceful is not only statistically weak when looking on a broad scale, it also misses the trees for the forest on a smaller scale.  There is an entire slice in the social and political sciences that bought into the idea that war was a disease we could be cured of a temporary phenomenon that sprung from upscaling civilization.  In reality mankind has been violent with each other from pretty much Day 1.  It is an impulse that is baked into us and will be very hard to remove, if ever.  In the end Hobbes and Rousseau continue to wrestle for our souls…when in reality I think they were both right and wrong.  We are creatures who have always lived on the margin. Suspended between order and chaos, thriving and self destruction.  

    This war is no exception.  It is the most wasteful and useless war in a long time.  Russia was not running out of X.  Ukraine was not an imminent threat to Russian survival (at least not that we can figure).  This war hardly even counts as “policy by other means”, it is too personal and irrational to make that much sense.  We just lived through a Great Peace and now it looks like it is over.  Hard military power as a means of diplomacy is back on the table.  Irrational and personal causes of war are back (they never really went anywhere) and we are leaning back to Rule of the Gun on a global scale.  Or maybe that is just how it looks on a Tuesday.

    While I haven't read Pinker, a limited list will always be a only a limited list. We humans often have desires to categorize stuff which isn't easily categorized into specifics. 
    However fact is that unlike popular belief, 'the world' has become more pleasant for the average human to live his life; relatively you had more chance of hunger, disease, violence and or war in previous generations. At least pre-covid, I haven't really looked into the subject since. Also let's not forget that the bulk of humanity lives in SE Asia.
    So yes we will probably always retain our violent nature (which isn't necessarily something 'wrong') and it is very plausible the trend will reverse at some time in the future (if it hasn't already), it is also good to realize that during the 20th century  and onwards life improved rather drastically for the average human being. 

     

  12. 8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    There is probably hardly a country that it is so clear cut. But yeah, Morawiecki should frame it better; it cost us good opinion county earned before (mostly due to people's genuine reactions rather than original state apparatus behaviour anyway). About chancellor Scholz I dare to politelly disagree.😉

    Well let's hope there won't be snowball effects but it won't help in other countries where political support for the (significant) military aid to Ukraine and the impact of sanctions is opposed by significant part of the electorate. 

    And I am nor ever was a big fan of Scholz, probably I have similar feelings about him as many others here but I felt some words about him or rather Germany were uncalled for / unproductive. In the light of this new development one could at least say that all those words from the Polish government was hollow rhetoric for political gain or to be considered hypocrisy. 

    Edit: I hope 'you' manage to get rid of PiS in the election.

     

  13. 13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

    Partly it is obviously the case. However, there is so many interconnected interests and odd theatricity (on both UA and PL sides) connected to this issue that it starts to stinks from a far, like "who blown NS2" case. Given previously extremely cordial relations between presidents, and very uncharacteristic calmness of Duda in this situation, there is even theory now that it is agreed between both governments to do a little public tantrum as a favour due to elections...sounds crazy, but we already saw many similar odd, unresolved cases during those 2 years (like NS2 case). A lot of things is going here under the carpet we know little about.

    Also, don't take Morawiecki by his words, basically never. He lies, as always -don't worry, I am pretty sure PL will continue its military support on multiple levels (if some stuff is still left in warehouses). Here @Huba is unfortunatelly right- expecting state in election fever to behave normally is like asking woman just about to give birth to stop showing off herself.

     

    Well, geopolitics is (or should) not a playground for elections. The declaration that Poland will stop military support for Ukraine is, to put it mildly, a 'stab in the back' for Ukraine but also the other partners with which Poland was 'cooperating' like the EU, USA, etc.  
    Furthermore it disqualifies all what has been said by Polish officials on the subject of Scholz, etc.

    There were quite some articles about the rise of influence of Poland in the EU and larger. Actions like this put dynamite under such developments which is imo a shame because all of Europe is better off with a stable / stronger  Poland.

  14. 2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

    I am just a poor boy though my story's seldom told
    I have squandered my resistance
    For a pocketful of mumbles, such are promises
    ...All lies and jest
    Still a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest

    Look, it's the same bloody macroeconomic data everyone uses, with all its limitations.

    Decent sliced and diced historical sets for countries are available at UNCTAD; I use them myself for work, and they are quite interesting for certain purposes (trends in aggregate supply and demand, energy intensity, etc.). Yes, some data could be falsified or misclassified, but even USSR or Mao's China didn't go to extreme lengths.

    ...And what it's telling Tooze is not to count on the Russian consumer blowing a whistle in the event of a 'long war' cuz too many guns and not enough butter are crimping his lifestyle. Which makes reasonable intuitive sense to me, unless China decides to side with the West or sumfink.

    He makes no claims though regarding the long term ability of the Russian economy to sustain the war machine.

    I don't get what people are so torqued about here.

    At least I don't feel 'torqued' or whatever you mean by that ;-P. 

    My question was more in the context of 'there have been many articles about the Russian economy and how the sanctions are/aren't working' or how much the war has an influence on the economy, all based off probably the same data (or lack thereof). Plenty of 'derivative' indexes/numbers/predictions continue to operate and produce periodic sets without much consideration (and or because they're contractually obliged and don't really care what other parties do with their calculations). Maybe that is what you mean about torqued people.

    We at least know for sure that Russia has interest to present a case that the sanctions aren't working and that those participating in it are hurting themselves for little/no gain. 
    One could also put forward that Russia has interest to portray, at least internally, that their economy isn't really affected much by the war or the sanctions. 

    So I wondered if he (Tooze) found something 'new', but I'll read the article now that the sun is slowly going down on this side on the globe. 

    Sometimes a question is just a question and there's not much more behind it then an enquiring mind. 

  15. On 9/16/2023 at 3:10 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

    ...I suppose the general idea is that we must regretfully put a Russian Home Front Collapse (((((Dolchstosslegende)))) in the 'nice to hope for, and not entirely outside the realm of the possible, but I wouldn't bet on it', category of causative dei ex machini for an early cease fire. Until it happens, sure.

    Adam Tooze is pretty sound; no particular ideological brief I can discern in a decade of reading him, and his historical work on Weimar/pre-WW2 Germany political economy alone makes his views on these topics well worth considering... IMHO. But sure, he has no better direct line to Gawd than any of us mortals. YMMV.

    @billbindc (our go-to for the Permanent Establishment Party line 😛) Tooze is fair dinkum by you, amirite?

    FWIW I always find his understanding/theories very interesting and well thought out. However even the brightest mind can't fix 'garbage in, garbage out'. 

    It's not unheard of for think tanks, academics, researchers etc to work with the data that is available to them and make the best of it. Even if that data ought to be tossed out the window Russia style.
    Not saying Tooze is directly guilty of that in this instance, but how did he get the data he uses and how does he know that it's 'good'? 

  16. On 9/15/2023 at 8:06 PM, JonS said:

    Well, clearly that isn't a requirement, but while we're making the game boring; can we add a fire-planning interface in there too?

    Having some form of engineering, for instance AFVs with rollers/dozer blades in the modern CMx2 games, wouldn't mean the simulation has to go balls deep into the engineering subject/specialization. A limited set of eng capabilities could make the 'things go boom' more fun and allow one to sort of simulate/portray the RL problems we see on 'the news'. At the moment there is no real way to clear minefields in CMx2 modern. 

    The same goes for fortifications; I wouldn't enjoy a 'dig your own fort' simulation but the current modelling of fortifications in CMx2 limit the amount of tactical battles one can setup up decently enough. 

    I guess some improvements could also be made to fire-planning in order to keep everyone on board ;-P. I was already happy to have learned that the modelling of artillery effects against AFVs is going to be improved.

    Anyway I thought you both have a valid point and that there is some fruits in the middle. 

  17. 7 hours ago, BFCElvis said:

    A little more information about the Grand Tournament:

    https://store.steampowered.com/news/app/1551160/view/3675555405727636618

     

    The planned background editorial's and video's sound great for building immersion!

    I'm not sure if I'm able to compete, I'm surely tempted but I don't want to perform another no-show like (I had to in) the last battle of the CSMF2 tournament. 

  18. 23 minutes ago, Centurian52 said:

    I think he meant what can they do as far as escalation. And I think when it comes to escalation the only things they can do are exactly what The_Capt said. They can mobilize, and they can go nuclear. I think mobilization (at least another partial mobilization, if not full mobilization) is only a matter of time regardless what the west does, simply because they will eventually have no choice. So it's not really a viable "we'll do this in response to something you do" sort of escalation. And going nuclear means WW3 by definition, which they definitely don't want any more than we do, so it's not really credible. So I think the reality is that they have precisely zero escalation options.

    Oh I agree on the escalation subject, although that front didn't necessarily change today because Musk did previously proclaim to have stopped WW3 before by preventing a similar strike in the past. 

    However I guess my point was more on the side of do they really need to specifically escalate after this incident? 

     

  19. 34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

    What can Russia do now except make quacking noises and lob more missiles at apartment buildings?   Plant more mines?

    Make do with less?

    It is fortunate though that because of the Bosporus thing they can't really reinforce the Black Sea fleet. I don't think we're there yet, but they can't keep losing ships indefinitely before they will have issues with enforcing the blockade and or protect their shipping around the black sea area. 

    So indeed a strategic strike imo, a welcome one too, but not directly tipping any scales in my understanding.

  20. I think CMBS is/was a great game, without the 2022 war we would have already seen a module (and without the war we wouldn't have known about what things are off; there used to be discussions about how Russian forces are under modeled in CMBS). It can do a decent job of modelling 2022+ scenario's but there's certainly things that are off compared to 'reality'. I too hope for either a module/upgrade for CMBS and or a new game portraying the 2022 war. BFC has said CMBS will never be about the 2022 war, so there's that. But maybe some alterations regarding artillery effectiveness against AFVs and availability of drones could be improved for the CMBS module. Perhaps some tools which had came up by 2017? 
    All in all given that CMBS features drone directed artillery and other things, I think it's rather decent for a game that came out almost a decade ago. And for all it's features and constraints it's perfectly playable both SP and MP.

  21. Had some fun with these little scraps as well, we too were behind schedule mainly due to my agenda but we managed to finish the games just before the bell. 

    The oppo matching is more advanced than I was expecting ;-), given the positions I assumed a rematch against @MeatEtr but we have now been paired with the #3 and #4. Good for variety I guess.

    I have been coupled to Dawg327, not sure if he is on this forum. First file send and GL & HF!

  22. On 7/13/2023 at 2:36 AM, The_Capt said:

    Oh I think there are several dozen trillion reasons why this war is about the West:

    https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-94-trillion-world-economy-in-one-chart/

    I do not believe for an instant that the West was outside the Russian calculus for this war.  Russia did not need Ukraine to survive - politically or economically.  Putin’s regime has been shown to be robust so I doubt it was teetering in Feb 22.  So why then did Russia decide to invade Ukraine in the first place?  A whim?  There were definitely internal reasons but it would be very shortsighted not to see this entire war as a statement against Western world order - hell, Putin said so last Sep…it is not like it is a secret.

    This is not about being all about the West, it is about great power competition.  Again if Ukraine were Uzbekistan we would not even be having this conversation.  And frankly before this war most people in the West could not find Ukraine on a map, let alone really care deeply about Ukrainian independence or democracy - we do not fight wars because they are righteous, we fight them because they are in our interests. And right now Ukrainians are fighting and dying for Western interests.  The second that our interest divide western support will dry up overnight.  

    And frankly none of this is the failure point.  The failure will be losing interest after the war is over: “oh the NGOs are handling it”.  We can dump boatloads of weapons onto Ukraine but it won’t mean a thing if they do not have an economy after this is over.

    In my perspective the West certainly plays a role in Russia's behavior, in several ways. But ultimately the power competition is for internal reasons; elements inside Russia want to show that Russia can compete with the big boys. Having a Ukraine (for historical reasons) which is moving towards the western hemisphere is a threat to the image they want to have. Ultimately it could be a threat to the Russian Federation, not only the current regime, because the people 'demand' change after seeing Ukraine developing and thriving with the other 'friend -group'.

    But that doesn't mean the 'leading subject' of the war is the West, at least I think that's a fallacy.

    Of course wars are fought because of interests. But Ukraine is fighting this war for THEIR interests, which may align with ours, but not primarily to serve our interests. That was the imo not subtle difference I was missing when people talk about they are fighting the war on our behalf.  

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