Lethaface
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Posts posted by Lethaface
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Just now, Bulletpoint said:
Or an asteroid, because then the survivors might conclude that it was the will of god that the conflict should end.
But hopefully it will never come to that.
A divine intervention is probably what's needed to solve this conflict indeed. At least you made me laugh about this rather sobering subject.
In the Ukr/Rus war it is rather clear who are the good guys, somehow that makes it easier for me to follow it closely.
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42 minutes ago, dan/california said:
Would it be able to engage Lancets as well?
I don't see why Lancets would be such a different type of target that the capability wouldn't be effective against those.
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And just a reminder for everyone, how do we think about Russia levelling a building complex full of people in which there might be some Ukrainian soldiers? Or Russia attacking the power supply / heating of Ukraine?
If it comes to the rules of war, there shouldn't be differences between how we apply them to various actors in different wars. -
15 hours ago, paxromana said:
Indeed it is.
However, blockading a besieged place in time of war is not 'collective punishment' ...
And any civilian casualties which result are the legal responsibility of the besieged force ... Hamas in this case ... not of the besieger.
Once the Israelis take control if, for example, they decided to blow up the Power Plant, that would be collective punishemnt ... what;s going on now is entirely at the foot of the Hamas fanatics.
This is not correct. If Israel keeps blockading water, food, medicine and fuel for the civilian populace that's considered a warcrime. (Indiscriminately) bombing cities and buildings with massive civilian casualties is too.
I fear that is exactly what will happen, which will sow another generation of extremist Hamas/whatever fighters so in a dozen years orso the whole movie will repeat.
Not that I think Hamas's actions are productive in any way shape or form. They are rather barbaric in their actions.
The question is, what is the outlook of the average young Palestinian growing up in Gaza? Is it surprising they (or at least a good number of m) turn into radical extremist terrorists? Personally I don't think it is surprising.
Someone I know once said, during one of the previous similar fubar situations there, that a neutron bomb on the whole region might be the only solution for the problem. I didn't agree then, nor do I think it is a healthy idea now, but I'm starting to understand the reasons for his idea / solution more and more. -
19 hours ago, dan/california said:
The question is do they have a choice?
They might want to have real serious discussion about exactly what the mission of troops is now instead of later.
I guess those are part of the UNIFIL mission. I have a good connection with someone in the Malaysian Airforce also deployed to Lebanon as part of UNIFIL.
Their mission is de-escalation, obviously ;-).
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20 hours ago, warrenpeace said:
Bulletpoint,
You are absolutely correct about the Germany welcoming German refugees situation, but my point is the Arab nations of the Middle East never did the same with Arabs from Palestine. The Arabs that lived in Palestine were as much Arabs as East Prussians were German. Remember that Palestine, Syria, Jordan, and Iraq were all essentially National creations after WW1. Boarders were kind of made up by the British. There was no real national identity for any of these places. Instead of welcoming and resettling the refugees, they used them as political pawns.
From 1948-1967 Gaza was under Egyption control. Israel wanted to give it back to them as part of the Camp David Accords, but Egypt said no. Egypt definitely does not want 2 million Gazans. That is why I think the only real solution is to eliminate Hamas and then invest a ****load of cash into the strip to create economic prosperity.
Arabs aren't a country though. Another rather significant distinction is that Germany was responsible for WW2 and the people driven out of those area's were a direct consequence of the war and Germany's behavior. People from the Palestinian area didn't start a massive war nor commit a holocaust; so it's harder to swallow they were driven out of their homes, like for what reason?
I'm not fully sure if there was not a 'national identity' like you say, but people sure did have a bond with their houses / ground / place where they lived. It's not that people weren't bonded to their town/city/region before the invention of nation states.
I agree though that the regimes (dictatorships) of the Arab states in fact don't really care much for the Palestinians. They are indeed used as political pawns, although I think the Palestinians themselves also don't want to accept that they have lost their home turf forever. They call it the 'Nakba' (disaster) for a reason.
At the same time the people living in those Arab states certainly care about m, so that's why those regimes have to keep up appearances once in a while.Ultimately yes Israel is directly responsible for the Gaza situation as they have created it (and are slowly annexing all remaining 'Palestinian' land).
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Interesting sounding tech/software, which if I understand correctly could be installed on existing crows and link them together forming a distributed network for defense against drones.
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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
Ukraine's accounting for Russia's losses in the Avdiivka assault. And look... a Terminator! If this is correct it would be, what, the second one confirmed destroyed? They are also officially stating that a Su-25 was downed, but still no visual confirmation as far as I know.
Possibly one less TOS-1 to worry about:
The Girkin Twitter account has a number of posts pertaining to Avdiivka that I haven't seen yet. This one shows yet more MT-LB modifications. Ersatz APC?
Rob Lee also has some worthwhile videos from Avdiivka, but there is also this... Russian footage of recent strikes on Ukraine's airforce:
Steve
I'm quite sure I saw that video of the Lancet strike on the Mig a coupe of weeks (or longer) ago. IIRC at the time there was the question whether it was a dummy plane or not.
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47 minutes ago, dan/california said:
I guess such point defense systems work great against Shaheds/drones which could save up AA missiles for anti-missile defense and or free up more mobile systems to move closer to the front. I wonder how many systems can be bought for the $80m but I guess a decent number with 2 digits.
Let's hope they can be on duty at the time that the expected attacks on energy/heating infrastructure begin. -
5 minutes ago, akd said:
T-72B3 obr.2023 “Copium”
New NATO designation?
Although I'd guess against drone dropped ordnance they can be effective. -
On 10/10/2023 at 12:19 PM, Butschi said:
That is too polemic for my taste. I mean, sure, we could do more. But compared to other conflicts we are already doing a lot! The numbers are readily available so you can do the math yourself for other countries. Germany's total commitment is around 38 bln € so far, that is twice what Afghanistan cost us in 10x less time. That includes the cost for harbouring refugees but excludes the indirect costs, especially the hit on German economy caused by sanctions etc., which is estimated to be over 100 bln €. If you call that dribbling...
Re: Western attention. That has nothing to do with TikTok and everything with the way we humans work. I am convinced that even the Ukrainians living here (and possibly even in the quieter parts of Ukraine) tend to be more concerned with their day-to-day lives than with the war. I myself admit that recently I was more concerned with my car breaking down than with soldiers dying far away. While on an intellectual level I am aware that the latter is the far greater tragedy, my car refusing to drive has a far greater direct impact on my life. Call me a cynic.
It is great that we are paying so much attention to the war in Ukraine here on this forum! But let's be a little honest to ourselves. Part of why we do that is because we are war(gaming) nerds and this war involves one of our favourite enemies and fancy toys. A war with similar number of casualties somewhere in Africa with people slaughtering each other the old-fashioned way (AKs and machetes?) wouldn't generate a thread with almost 3000 pages here.
Out of likes as usual (first world problem :D), but here is one.
Yemen anyone? Sudan also going on, etc. This war has large ramifications for most of us. Indirect results like inflation, energy pricing, etc;
Anyway I'm not that bleak about support dwindling yet; so far it's more of a media / politics thing afaik. Of course from Ukraine perspective the support can never come (quickly) enough.
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On 10/8/2023 at 3:32 PM, Haiduk said:
I respect Lindsey Graham for his honesty, when he explained why West support Ukraine.
And one usual American, who wrote in twitter almost the same "each of us paid 14$ of our taxes to see how Russian army will be destroyed without any losses of our soldiers"
Big countries or their allinces can smile each other and talk about cooperation for peace, but in real struggle for influence and resources has not gone anyway. And big countries conduct hidden game for this influence and resources. And if in 19th and 20th centuries this achieved mostly by military force, that now much more economical and information levereges to this. I bet US always wanted declining of Russia and China as well as China and Russia want declining of USA. Russia just brutally violated the order of this "big club". Even not because they invaded the large European country, which created many risks (millions of refugees, grain export, nuclear plants security etc), but because Putin jumped directly on the West, choosing Ukraine as "whipping boy" to scare westren elites and trade more appropriate place (on his opinion) of Russia in world order. You can recall demands of Putin before invasion. Most of them were adressed to West and NATO, not to Ukraine. He demanded that NATO turned back to 1997 borders. So, "big dudes" just took advantage to knock Russia down if they in so stupid way gave an occasion to do this.
It's a luck for us that among large number of western elites was understanding like of Lindsey Graham. So, yes, you support us because "we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now" and you support us as proxie force to weaken Russia in order to their behavior will not be "story of success" for other "big players". Because after Russian defeat western companies hipothetically can get partial or even full control over Russian resourse-mining companies. Because now you investing in own security and keep lives of own soldiers and civilians, which with big probability will not go to defend Taiwan, Israel or Southern Korea if Russia losses. So all talks about "democracy", "values" and "support of independent nation" leave for TV-shows for electorate. We are not against to be western proxies in global fight for influence, because this gives opportunity to defeat our ethernal enemy. We are weapon in your hands. So use it properly and decisively without hesitations
I think this is a very limited perspective which is mainly made for internal USA consumption. The average USA voter probably believed Kiev / Ukraine was a Russian province before the '22 invasion. They need some convincing as to why they are involved in this war.
While 'real politik' is real, it's not the sole thing that makes the world turn. Plus it comes in many layers and perspectives.FWIW I know for certain that the 'big dude' (there is only USA, no other big dudes) being unhappy was nor is the sole reason my country supports Ukraine. Nor is MH-17 the sole reason. I think the same can be said for most other European countries.
If in the end there is any 'sole' reason it is that ultimately 'we' realized, after plenty of broken words and promises and being on the receiving end of unwelcome unvaselined sticks inserted to our cavities, that Russia's regime is and will be a bunch of conniving corrupt bastiges who will do over anyone anywhere as long as they get a gain from it; and kill anyone standing in their way.
We might have been a bit late coming to that conclusion, but now we have arrived at it we are stubbornly sticking to it until 'real politik' forces us to do different.For what it is worth I think the average Dutch voter wouldn't want Ukraine to fight a proxy war on our behalf. We are not dying; if Ukraine doesn't want to die for it's own existence, than let us make money off the Russians. 'We' were refining a good chunk of their raw resources / half fabricates and selling the end product back to them at good profit.
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On 10/7/2023 at 5:39 PM, Haiduk said:
Why such noble mission wasn't offered to Russia? Now these "old USSR stocks" Kh-55 and Kh-22 fly to us back, our Scud missiles were utilized too and we begging for long-range weapon to reach Russian strategic objects.
We were forced to sign different limitations on number of usual weapon, what moved it out of service. Hundreds of tanks, IFVs, jets, helicopters were stored and gave wide field of weapon business for corupted officials to sell all this "extra" staff to Africa, Asia and Middle East.
We were forced to utilize all "extra" MANPADS "in order to exclude risks that terrorists will get it" - and during 12 years we utilized 1000 MANPADS, as well as 1,5 millions of small-arms. And continued to do it even in 2015!
We were forced to sign agreement do not develop missile weapon with a range over 500 km.
We were forced to sign Ottawa Convention and utilize all AP mines except claymors and OZM.
So, how, has the world became safer after we "got rid of old Soviet weapon" in change on toilet paper of Budapesht Memorandum?
Directly - nothing. Tangentially - yes.
No need to bomb Moscow. War is money. No money - no war. Bad taste is cowardice and venality of many western political and economical elites, bad tatse to buy Russian resourses and bypass own sanctions, selling them equipment and electronic. Bad taste are families of Russian officilas flying to Europe free for shopping. This "real politic" is bad taste and ugly hypocrisy at all. So, if West will be go on in such way, yes, I will say, you deserve.
"Capitalists themselves will sell us a rope on which we will hang them" (C) Vladimir Lenin. Despite he was a commi, his words exactly about this situation.
I think there is some translation lost in space here. But if we manage to 'force' you to give your rope to Russia, in return for our money, do you deserve to hang from it?
In hindsight we can all look into the cows arse :D.
Yes the West have made mistakes, and still do. What is even 'the West'? Not everyone in the West has same opinion. For example, while I think Hamas are barbaric terrorists (as shown recently), in my opinion Israel isn't that far off from being a terrorist state. And I know there's not that many people in the West agreeing with me.
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13 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:
The offensive isn't over so it's too early to judge. Having said that, the most fair bar to measure against is the one the Ukrainians are holding themselves to:
The general (Tarnavsky) conceded that for the counteroffensive to be a success, Ukrainian forces need to at least reach the city of Tokmak.
“Tokmak is the minimum goal,” he said. “The overall objective is to get to our state borders.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/23/europe/ukraine-biggest-counteroffensive-to-come-intl-hnk/index.html
I agree that it is too early too judge. And while it is fair to hold them to their own stated objectives, that's one general saying something to the media. Sometimes some people (feel they) need to communicate expectations, even when those with their boots in the actual mud have different expectations or rather no expectations whatsoever; they just do or die.
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On 10/7/2023 at 9:16 AM, cesmonkey said:
Somber post about the daunting task still facing Ukrainian forces:
I don't think it's really somber, it's just realistic.
FWIW at times I was probably also over-hopeful regarding the 'offensive', in part because it looked like that Russia was lacking ATGMs / AT assets, the obstacle belt was being ridiculed and defensive coordination / morale seemed lackluster at the time Russia / Wagner was grinding in Bakhmut.The first days of the counter offensive, before we even knew whether it had really started, already showed that the mine belts combined with drone observation / coordinated fires and deep AT assets were a serious issue and not easily overcome without heavy casualties.
So, did the offensive fail? That depends where you hold the bar. If you hold it at our unrealistic expectations, then yes it failed. However accounting for the reality on the ground I'm not sure it failed. There is always room for improvement and probably Ukraine made enough mistakes, but as long as they keep learning and maintain their will and capability to fight...
Is that a failure or is that progress / learning on the job?
If only for those reasons I expected Ukraine to choose Bakhmut as the main effort (after the first mine belt + artillery / Ka-52 interactions), because the (mostly) Wagner forces who achieved the 'success' there were sort of spend and new units, probably mobiks, would have to hold the line which they didn't have time to really fortify as they did with all the other directions. Plus defeating Wagner would destroy the myth.A couple of months later and Wagner was indeed destroyed but not necessarily by Ukraine :D. I guess nobody could have really predicted what happened.
That brings me back to whether or not the offensive failed. If one had a neutral expectation, I don't think it really failed. It surely could have gone better but also could have gone a lot worse.
So we can all relearn the lesson to keep expectations low; or rather expect the worst but hope for the best. That's not being cynical, just being realistic
And like most/all of us expected, this war won't be over even if Ukraine manages to push Russia back to pre-22 borders. So what they can't manage to push Russia back to pre-22 borders in '23? The war wouldn't been over anyway.
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On 10/6/2023 at 6:25 PM, dan/california said:
The notable part is that maybe one of these implies Russia will not be hell on earth to live in for the next fifty or a hundred years. Any rational person still in Moscow would be buying a plane ticket before he finished the summary.
Perhaps the rational ones with the means / option to buy a plane ticket already did so a while ago?
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FWIW a foresight of possible scenario's with regards to the end of the war and or Putin, aimed at policy makers:
https://www.clingendael.org/publication/after-putin-deluge
The whole article is free to download as a pdf.
Not necessarily new/groundbreaking stuff but a nice collection imo. Extract from the extract:
"To help policymakers prepare for what might lie ahead, this report draws up a model consisting of 35 variables that will together shape Russia’s future – based on an extensive literature review and scenario workshop with Dutch and international experts. It then builds on this model to construct a scenario framework for the next five years. These scenarios take into account (1) to what extent the Russian regime could change or persist, (2) to what extent this would be accompanied by large-scale instability and violence, and (3) to what extent a future Russian government would pursue confrontation or rapprochement with the West. The report then puts forward six scenarios based on these variables and presuppositions
1. Reluctant reconciliation. After Russia has lost the war in Ukraine, various groups in the Russian elite join forces to oust Putin in a ‘palace coup’. The new president strikes a deal with the West, makes Putin and his loyalists a scapegoat, and enacts limited democratic and economic reforms.
2. China’s propped-up proxy. The war grinds on for years and no end is in sight. Putin is forced to step down due to mismanagement, but the regime itself prevails and a successor eventually secures political and financial backing from Beijing. Russia becomes fully dependent on China.
3. The Empire strikes back. After Western support for Ukraine dwindles, Russia decisively wins the war. Putin’s popularity surges and he is stronger in power than ever before. Russia has international partners that help it keep its economy going, while the West loses its unity.
4. Neo-Stalinist fortress Russia. Putin has made Russia a global pariah state. China, India and others abandon their tacit support and Russia is forced to become almost entirely self-sufficient. The regime continues its reign through brutal repression and propaganda. 2 After Putin, the deluge? | Clingendael Report, October 2023
5. The Wild East. After continued humiliation and a defeat on the battlefield, Putin’s regime loses legitimacy, withdraws from the south and east of Ukraine, and Russia begins to implode. Russia descends into organised chaos with high levels of criminality reminiscent of the early 1990s.
6. Dissolution without a nuclear solution. A catastrophic military defeat leads to the implosion of the Russian Federation, after which regional warlords seize nuclear assets to deter the rump state Muscovy. While some entities are recognised by China or other powers, Muscovy remains revisionist and deeply hostile towards the West" -
On 9/27/2023 at 11:39 PM, billbindc said:
Someone is clearly leaking a particular version of events to media and only some media in the usual country(s) is picking it up. Why? Because that scenario looks quite a bit like a Russian disinformation operation.
Lol actually knowing what was in 'some media' would be a good thing before making conclusions about it, but I digress.
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On 9/27/2023 at 10:33 PM, Anon052 said:
I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage. The only new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.
You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.
The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.
The first problem the divers had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda. In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction by those one the ship with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.
Then there is the question of the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used. There exist seismic profiles of those explosions and those hint at a bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.
Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the Andromeda in a short amount of time.
There is more I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.
One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.
Thanks for your reply and detailing of the specifics with regards to the equipment. With regards to my statement that the complexity was overstated I referred to the statements that only US Navy Seals and equivalent capable organizations could organize such an operation. And that a nation state with the capabilities of Ukraine couldn't achieve such a feat.
The fact that you work in exactly this type of field sort of proves the point I made (derived from the info from the video; I'm no diver).
It is unfortunate that the documentary video is mostly in Dutch, like I said there is a diver/instructor interviewed who explains that it is his dayjob teaching dives at that depth and said it is a complicated operation but not overcomplicated; certainly doable for experienced divers with the appropriate gear.
Neither does the documentary in my opinion show bias 'against' Ukraine imo, they just point out what information is available and even explained how some people don't believe it could be only the andromeda (I guess concluding that is a viable theory was an extrapolation on my side, which could be wrong according to the specifications/expertise you post). Or that the source could be a 'walk in' providing / planting disinformation.
Others in the video believed the Andromeda certainly played a key role in it. Like I said, it leaves the conclusion open.It seems the majority here is more convinced that the Andromeda stuff must be a false flag than I am, but that's fine. It still is information, I didn't hear these details before. I guess the makers of the documentary worked together with the German source you mentioned.
Ok, back to the actual situation. -
On 9/27/2023 at 10:30 PM, Beleg85 said:
Therefore, killing as many soldiers as it can be done may not be sufficent to knock them off, even if we reach half a milion or so. Problem is that our toolbox is so limited here, compared to Putin's...
I agree, but I shouldn't have to. The Wests 'toolbox' is still much 'better' relatively (better institutions for everyone, less poverty, less brutality, etc), but somehow we have lost part of our marketing/PR advantage; mostly because of our own design.
We don't need Putin's toolbox, or rather what would make us different from Putin & co if we utilized the same type? -
3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:
The whole nordstream discussion is very strange.
I read (maybe in this very thread) that you need specialized training and specialized equipment to pull something like that off. A group of random divers operating from a tiny boat won't do, because it is too deep, etc.
Does Ukraine have that capability? Unlikely. Does Ukraine have a reason to do it? Not unless you do a lot of mentsl gymnastics. Does Ukraine have a history of messing with other countries' underwater infrastructure? Nope. Were any Ukrainian assets seen around? One suspected boat according to "anonymous sources" and the link to Ukraine seems to be some "Ukrainian" but actually Russian lady who visited Crimea maybe?
Does US have the capability? Probably, I'm sure SEALS can do some crazy stuff. Does US have a reason to do it? I'd say not much but it can be discussed (it seems the relationship impact would be very much not worth it even if US really didn't like the project). Does US have a history of messing with other countries' underwater infrastructure? Not that I know. Were US assests seen in the area? Not that I know of.
Does Russia have the capability? Yes. Does Russia have a reason to do it? Very much yes. Does Russia have history of messing with other coutries' underwater infrastructure? Yes. Were Russian assets seen in the area? Yes, specialized ship for underwater works was seen nearby before and after.
FWIW in the video and text this subject is addressed; I'd say the complexity of the operation was overestimated / bit of a myth.
According to a dive instructor interviewed in the video, who teaches people to dive at the depths involved (70-80m) in the Baltic sea, this is a complicated dive, but not 'overcomplicated' and well doable for experienced divers. It is his dayjob to train people to do this. He told he was laughing a bit when he heard the same things you post on the news after the attacks.
They mention minimum of ~50kg of explosive per charge. So a group of 5-6 experienced divers with professional diving equipment could in theory very well have done this from a small boat like that sailing boat.
One interesting bit also featured is that one harbour master in the area said that it was quite an achievement to do dives like that without anyone noticing (coastguards, navies).
According to the research German police have found traces of the same explosive (HMX) that was used for the attack on a table in the ship, which itself was located after info from the MIVD source. Phone numbers / e-mail addresses involved with hiring of the ship point to Ukrainian individuals.All in all I think it's safe to conclude that either someone really wanted to make it look like Ukraine did it, or Ukraine/Ukrainians did it.
The ship involved in the evidence could have well been the ship that did it, but could also be part of a larger effort or just a ruse to make it look like Ukrainians did it.
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3 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Never said 'they all are'. But some for sure.
Again no. But the information of the MIVD can be manipulated by the FSB, which possibility is more or less admitted in this documentary. The MIVD will be the first to admit that.
Let's assume this is a Ukrainian-Polish operation. Perhaps even covered by the Americans, given the dutch warning to Washington, that such an operation was planned by the Ukrainians. Who is to benefit from getting that public? Right.
The 'people' do not have a 'right' to know the truth. Most of them are far too stupid for that and will draw the wrong conclusions. Russia is at this moment the enemy. That neither Ukraine nor Poland can be entirely trusted is no surprise to those who know the history of these two countries. But at this moment everybody must believe the Russians are behind it. That Swedish/Danish documentary I watched some time ago, is far more convincing than this dutch documentary.
I smell a rat and it's name is FSB.
I certainly don't rule out an FSB plot of 'feeding' info and a trail of evidence pointing towards Ukrainian individuals. And I agree that for national security reasons (especially during wartime although we're not at war) the public doesn't need to know everything.
But if such a thing should get out (either in public or as classified info), it will probably be not as happy faces on the next meeting.
Anyway if I had to put money on either Russia or Ukraine, in the past I would have put it at Russia with a bit more confidence then I would do now. Perhaps I'd put it on Ukraine, as there are at least some leads pointing there.
On the motive side there is no clear cut case either.Anyway let's see if more will be known in the foreseeable future. Might be something that will remain unknown for quite some time.
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13 minutes ago, Pete Wenman said:
Calling 15k troop strength an 'entire army' which had been 'missed', sounds a bit dramatized imo. Although obviously 15k troops reinforcing somewhere where one didn't expect them can be 'problem'. -
2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:
Some time ago I saw a Swedish or Danish documentary about how the Russia navy is monitoring energy installations in the Baltic Sea and the North Sea. It sounded a lot more convincing. We musn't forget that journalists can (and sometimes are) bought by the Russians and the FSB is a master of deception. Personally I don't give a damn about who did it. I always blame the Russians when something rotten happens and that's usually a safe bet.
While all media has it's issues with bias at times, even public ones like NOS and Nieuwsuur, I feel it's more farfetched to think they area all (including their European partners) bought by FSB.
FWIW the investigative journalism on the side of Nieuwsuur / NOS is usually of a high level. These are publicly governed and funded news organizations providing among other things the public daily journals in The Netherlands (you know but not everyone here).The information from the MIVD is also unlikely to be orchestrated by the FSB, unless one believes our military intelligence is compromised.
Anyway, they don't rule out the Ukrainian assets where in some form used / orchestrated from Russia. Without having access to secrets we don't know how credible the MIVD itself think it's source is. Credible enough to act on it, that is for sure.
Anyway I think it's dumb to look at this and think 'blablabla Russia is behind it and I won't believe anything else'. At the same time it would be dumb to conclude for certainty, at this time, that the Ukrainian leadership is behind this. There are still many possibilities, but as more information surfaces there is at least some doubt to be cast on the idea 'must be the Russian's.
Therefore this again proves that it is always imperative to keep an open mind about uncertain things.Anyway, a 30min video about the findings (some of it is in Dutch):
https://nos.nl/nieuwsuur/video/2491937-nord-stream-hoe-alle-sporen-leiden-naar-oekraine
How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?
in Combat Mission Black Sea
Posted
With all that's been written about the subject in this thread I guess achieving 'drone superiority' in this war would be a significant factor.