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sburke

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Everything posted by sburke

  1. I don't see Putin buying into anything that leaves Ukraine. 1 Independent 2 democratic 3 Free to join NATO Short of that it is more posturing by China that will go nowhere. and it isn't about dismissing the BRICs. Globalization definitely means more being spread around. The dismissiveness was in thinking that it means the G7 is somehow in decline. The mindset of the global "south" is another issue entirely. Anyone who thinks there is uniformity in the attitude of the global "south" or homogeneity needs to travel more. As Natasha would say in Poker Face - "bullsh1t."
  2. It is a compound problem. The population is shrinking AND getting older. If it were just one or the other you might be able to project around, but both... not good. To make matters even more fun the average person is looking at never really owning their home as the way it is going now their mortgages will last their entire life. Hence folks using the term Humineral. people see the state just treats them as a resource. This is concerning in that part of why Putin seems to have jumped when he did was the view that things were only going to get worse in terms of the force ratio to obtain his goals. Xi might be thinking the same way.
  3. your assumption is based on a trajectory that is already altering. China population: Henan shows scale of demographic challenge as deaths outnumber births for first time in 60 years | South China Morning Post (scmp.com) China is going to face some very big challenges in the next decade(s). The CCP sits on top of a social contract of improving the lives of it's people. A contract it has largely lived up to. However, that contract is now at risk with an aging demographic and regional pension plans failing. With China being by far the largest BRIC... I don't see the trajectory continuing that way. Russia being the 3rd BRIC... well.... I am not sure the G7 are in as much danger as the chart might say.
  4. the problem there is no one trusts the Chinese gov't regarding their currency and willingness to alter valuation. Russia might conceivably buy in for lack of choice, but no other sane currency manager is going to.
  5. This section was really interesting. another nothing has changed there.
  6. okay name one moving in the right direction...just one. It is too easy to say yes things will change, this could be the moment. However, if you have no plausible alternative... at all. then how likely is that what if? Blockchain and crypto baby, that is gonna change the world.. except it is just a ponzi scheme.
  7. it has been consistent. Russia playbook is always about the threat that NATO represents and encroachment all the while being the aggressor every time. Nothing new there, just more gaslighting
  8. Explained: How Pakistan is following Sri Lanka's footsteps in China's debt trap (firstpost.com) As per The Hong Kong Post, China has massively invested in over 150 countries with a majority of them being underdeveloped nations. This allows it to portray itself as a Good Samaritan. But this infrastructural investment gradually increases the debt of poor countries beyond repayment. This puts them in a phase of default ultimately compelling them to make strategic concessions to China. This debt trap diplomacy of China is a trend observed across the globe in nations with low GDPs. The China Communications Construction Company (CCCC), a state-owned multinational engineering and construction firm, builds infrastructural projects and further expands China’s agenda with its 60 subsidiaries. The latest of these patterns was seen in Sri Lanka, which as quoted by the report is neck-deep in debt to China, amounting to approximately $6.8 billion. China’s Export-Import Bank (EXIM) funded for construction of the ‘Hambantota International Port’ and the ‘Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport’ in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka then fell into a financial crisis causing the government unable to cover the project’s maintenance costs and interest despite the loan, and the country declared bankruptcy, defaulting on its sovereign debt, The Hong Kong Post reported. Now, reports are emerging about how Beijing is standing in the way of Sri Lanka getting an IMF loan. As this piece in The Diplomat noted, while Beijing has given Colombo relief from debt for two years, it has not agreed to provide financing. Sri Lankan Minister of Transport & Highways and Mass Media, Bandula Gunawardena was quoted as saying by Daijjiworld, “China has informed government-appointed agencies assigned for the debt restructuring process that they will extend a two-year moratorium on debt repayment.” This is stopping the IMF from coming to Sri Lanka’s aid. Bradley Parks, the executive director of the AidData research group at William & Mary, told The Diplomat that countries for years “were getting to know China as the kind of benevolent financier of big-ticket infrastructure.” However, now China is playing a very different role – the world’s largest debt collector.
  9. Ukrainian soldiers with life-changing war injuries posed for portraits saying they are 'living monuments' of a brutal war (yahoo.com) Pretty powerful. So many have given so much.
  10. Russia's Medvedev floats idea of pushing back Poland's borders (yahoo.com) Medvedev must be trying some new designer drugs.
  11. same here and I'd suggest folks do a bit of traveling before swallowing data from a chart. On another note it is worth looking at demographics to understand where China may be in the next 10 years. It ain't looking pretty.
  12. that doesn't jive with the lopsided vote in the UN against Russia, Call me a skeptic when China's deals in Africa and Asia reveal themselves to be not much less of a rip off than colonialism.
  13. sorry lost my train of thought there, ummm so which one is the wrong way again?
  14. This is the stickler So in order to even begin the process outlined in these positions, Russia has to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity. That would mean defeat for Russia. Maybe Xi can discuss that with Putin when they meet.
  15. The escalatory answer to China is in Taiwan and other pieces of the Pacific. in the end China doesn't really care about Russia. They are just a source of raw materials. Make it clear that if China takes this step then the US will see no alternative to start beefing up Taiwan's defenses. Maybe even help the Philippines and Vietnam establish some bases in the pacific. *ninja'd by @danfrodo
  16. we used to say BF will never do a Cold War game too...... never is too definitive.
  17. folks are watching too much of the Last of Us and bringing Zombie threads to life.
  18. These 6 countries sided with Russia in UN vote on Ukraine war (yahoo.com) Putin has got to be a little peeved at China.
  19. Bulgarian Factories and Secret Task Forces: How the West Hunts for Soviet Arms (yahoo.com)
  20. well Steve at some point you'll have to adjust CM for women in combat. You'll be so woke. This woman is awesome. The Witch of Ukraine Reveals How 'Teeny-Weeny' American Weapons Are Beating Russians (yahoo.com)
  21. Damn there are more Americans than .. well anyone/everyone else?!
  22. it is only just under 6 months since the Kharkiv offensive and it has been a muddy winter. Surely that doesn't equate to stalemate. What gives? The only way I see direct NATO involvement is if Russia does something truly incredibly epically stupid.... which isn't impossible, but also not likely.
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