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panzermartin

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  1. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from SteelRain in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 
     
  2. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry for banality, but this is most approriate answer, mate (and I would say in longer time there is a lot more hope now. BTW. I find this book more and more relevant seeing this war progressing.):

  3. Like
    panzermartin got a reaction from Panserjeger in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks for the post. Sometimes when I write here I get a lot of replies I can't follow. I feel like I'm shot from different directions, so sometimes I have to leave a debate unresolved or like waving hand as you say. It's really exhausting sometimes. 
    The fact I'm posting here and not in some pro russian forum tells me that I can sense where I mostly belong. But I like to challenge the dominant line. I did this with the Iraq War here when everyone was going Gung ho, and you can't imagine the flak I took. Everyone was so certain about the WMD the AL qaeda links and so on, only to accept some years later that they were wrong. Bush Jr was joking as well and life went on as usual. And people were again posting facts, excel sheets, analysis from reliable sources but nobody predicted the mess that followed. So, whatever firm facts we are looking for, might not be that firm sometimes. 
    But I still come here, because it is still one of the best sources of info on the internet about the war. I'm sorry that I'm not contributing to that so much. I have been posting since 2002 here and I appreciate that despite heated discussions from the Iraq war, to Gaza, Syria and Ukraine I was allowed to voice my half baked opinion. 
     
     
  4. Like
    panzermartin got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 
     
  5. Like
    panzermartin got a reaction from __Yossarian0815[jby] in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 
     
  6. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Gentlemen, I have a really hard time keeping this post civil. Imagine me posting this in all seriousness: The Mujahideen were aided and partly financed by the CIA. Since Al Qaida has a lot of members with Mujahideen background we can safely assume they were still connected to their old masters back in September 2001. This is no less plausible than your theory but we could all imagine the ****storm (and I'd probably be on forum hiatus for a while...).
    Btw: War is alwas bad. Period. Believe or not, some people back in the day just preferred being red to being dead. You can have a different opinion, weigh your freedom higher than your life (and that of your children, etc.). Others don't and that's a valid opinion, too.
  7. Like
    panzermartin got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 
     
  8. Like
    panzermartin got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 
     
  9. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from poesel in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm sorry but the connection of green movements and environmentalists with Putin and Saudi dictators sounds very trumpish to me and not something I would expect to read in this forum. 
     
  10. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Again, I will not take the bait and aggravate Steve by rekindling this discussion. I have a PhD in physics, so when I tell you to challenge your preconceptions and actually check facts, it isn't for any ideological reasons but because I feel qualified to say what is nonsense in that regard and what isn't. 'nough said, let's move on.
  11. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  12. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks for the post. Sometimes when I write here I get a lot of replies I can't follow. I feel like I'm shot from different directions, so sometimes I have to leave a debate unresolved or like waving hand as you say. It's really exhausting sometimes. 
    The fact I'm posting here and not in some pro russian forum tells me that I can sense where I mostly belong. But I like to challenge the dominant line. I did this with the Iraq War here when everyone was going Gung ho, and you can't imagine the flak I took. Everyone was so certain about the WMD the AL qaeda links and so on, only to accept some years later that they were wrong. Bush Jr was joking as well and life went on as usual. And people were again posting facts, excel sheets, analysis from reliable sources but nobody predicted the mess that followed. So, whatever firm facts we are looking for, might not be that firm sometimes. 
    But I still come here, because it is still one of the best sources of info on the internet about the war. I'm sorry that I'm not contributing to that so much. I have been posting since 2002 here and I appreciate that despite heated discussions from the Iraq war, to Gaza, Syria and Ukraine I was allowed to voice my half baked opinion. 
     
     
  13. Like
    panzermartin got a reaction from billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks for the post. Sometimes when I write here I get a lot of replies I can't follow. I feel like I'm shot from different directions, so sometimes I have to leave a debate unresolved or like waving hand as you say. It's really exhausting sometimes. 
    The fact I'm posting here and not in some pro russian forum tells me that I can sense where I mostly belong. But I like to challenge the dominant line. I did this with the Iraq War here when everyone was going Gung ho, and you can't imagine the flak I took. Everyone was so certain about the WMD the AL qaeda links and so on, only to accept some years later that they were wrong. Bush Jr was joking as well and life went on as usual. And people were again posting facts, excel sheets, analysis from reliable sources but nobody predicted the mess that followed. So, whatever firm facts we are looking for, might not be that firm sometimes. 
    But I still come here, because it is still one of the best sources of info on the internet about the war. I'm sorry that I'm not contributing to that so much. I have been posting since 2002 here and I appreciate that despite heated discussions from the Iraq war, to Gaza, Syria and Ukraine I was allowed to voice my half baked opinion. 
     
     
  14. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm also still puzzled. As I wrote above, I think the best strategy to hurt us would be to just go back to 100%. That would entirely divide the German society. All the usual suspects would start trumpeting how we did unjustice to Putin who obviously is still a trustworthy partner, while the US do everything to destabilize Europe in order to sell us their dirty fracking gas. Many would listen, not just on left and right fringes of the political spectrum but especially those with prosperity as ersatz-religion and who don't give a damn about the world as long as they can continue their well deserved good life. The second best strategy would be to close the valves entirely. Every bit of gas they send us gives us room to maneuvre, more options to mitigate the effects. By law private heating has priority and people will be reluctant to freeze at 10°C in order to keep the economy running. But every degree closer to adequate heating makes it easier to convince people. 
    No, I really think the Kremlin dropped the ball on this one. My take is, there are three possible reasons:
    Putin et al. are really getting delusional and now believe their own propaganda. Far from impossible but frankly this is my least favourite answer just because were are sometimes way to close to become this echo chamber where it is awesome, competent west vs. incompetent stupid Russia. I prefer to overestimating my opponent over underestimating him. This has nothing to do with us. It is a show entirely for the home front, to show the people the Kremlin is in control. They want to keep the money flowing in the long term: Off the top of my head, there is a substantial minimum payment clause for at least 20 years (?). Germany has already said that they want to get rid of the dependency on Russsian gas, so in the long run they won't sell more than that, anyway. But that money will only get paid if the contract is upheld. We have told the Russians the several times that they have to honour the contract, so we can't very well just break it. The only way to get around that is either Russia violates the contract or there is a general gas embargo. The latter is not likely to come any time soon, the former... well, the Russians keep delivering the stuff but due technical problems, maintenance, you name it they just can't send enough. That way they hurt us some but retain some long term trade income. Sounds too constructed? Just my thoughts.
  15. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks for the post. Sometimes when I write here I get a lot of replies I can't follow. I feel like I'm shot from different directions, so sometimes I have to leave a debate unresolved or like waving hand as you say. It's really exhausting sometimes. 
    The fact I'm posting here and not in some pro russian forum tells me that I can sense where I mostly belong. But I like to challenge the dominant line. I did this with the Iraq War here when everyone was going Gung ho, and you can't imagine the flak I took. Everyone was so certain about the WMD the AL qaeda links and so on, only to accept some years later that they were wrong. Bush Jr was joking as well and life went on as usual. And people were again posting facts, excel sheets, analysis from reliable sources but nobody predicted the mess that followed. So, whatever firm facts we are looking for, might not be that firm sometimes. 
    But I still come here, because it is still one of the best sources of info on the internet about the war. I'm sorry that I'm not contributing to that so much. I have been posting since 2002 here and I appreciate that despite heated discussions from the Iraq war, to Gaza, Syria and Ukraine I was allowed to voice my half baked opinion. 
     
     
  16. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Very bad. It could seriously tank our economy. The government is frantically trying to find alternatives but if it was easy it would already have happened.
     
    Of course we plan for the worst. But everything on top of that gives us a little more room to maneuvre. Pride is a bad advisor and should never guide a government. And while I fully agree that we should get rid of the stuff asap, on a rational level I have to concede that the better strategy is to take what gas we can now while we are busy finding alternatives. Even if we were to stop buying anymore gas now, we'd still have to get the energy from somewhere. Germany is a rather wealthy country, so I assume we will be able to obtain it. But with limited supply that means we are putting more money on the table than someone else who then will just go without energy. Darwin sends warm regards.
  17. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from Artkin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Grigb, I sense you and your family have a personal inflicted wound from soviet times or today's Russia. Because you are really passionate about hating your own country in a way I haven't seen before. It's true I can't debate that, from my safe western corner of fantasies. But I can spot the personal side. The thing is, don't worry the message is getting across and we are not actually that passionate to defend Russia's actions. Maybe we are just playing the devil's advocate to try to challenge our own mindset and seek the truth. Its not changing the course of history. Even if we think that evil or backwards countries still have national interests or rights when even criminals have the right in court to defend themselves and not get them straight to the electric chair. 
  18. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I said nothing of that. I said Russia is evil, I didn't give Russia the benefit of the doubt, I said they are bad. Period.
    It was your quote. 🤷‍♂️ I don't think you tried to fool me, though.
     
    I assume, you know no more about my background than I know about yours. So you could at least give me the benefit of the doubt (here it would make sense, I think). I highly value your knowledge and your opinion. You are very welcome to tell me where I err. But I politely ask you to do it in a less disparaging way. I am certain you know more about Russian concentration camps than I do which is probably really not that much more than a history textbook.
    I freely admit that I am by no means an expert. Like most here, history is some kind of a hobby for me. Still, I am rather certain that I know quite a lot more about our history of 1939-45 than the average European school textbooks and also more than the average German textbook. If you have some kind of first hand knowledge about German concentration camps or have an academic degree in history of the 20th century I apologize. The "normal" German concentration camp was much like you describe the Russian ones,  inmates there were meant to die eventually. Still, a "real" extermination camp was, in my opinion, a different level of evil. With that in mind, when I talk about nuances, my intention is not to relativize past or present Soviet/Russian deeds. I don't say this as a German who might feel obliged to say we were the worst because we were taught to. I think that the Nazis were there own level of evil because of how they institutionalized and industrualized atrocities that maybe others commited too but in a less organized way. I feel these nuances are things we should be more precise about and I don't like the way everything evil above a certain threshold is immediately likened to the Nazis. I honestly think, the modern day Russians aren't there yet and I haven't seen proof that could convince me otherwise. That doesn't mean they are not evil in a very bad way. It only means, they could still be worse. Saying this does not trivialize them or their victims.
    WWel, that is my opinion and I think I am entitled to it - but I am very open to discuss it and be convinced that I am wrong.
  19. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from Homo_Ferricus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Grigb, I sense you and your family have a personal inflicted wound from soviet times or today's Russia. Because you are really passionate about hating your own country in a way I haven't seen before. It's true I can't debate that, from my safe western corner of fantasies. But I can spot the personal side. The thing is, don't worry the message is getting across and we are not actually that passionate to defend Russia's actions. Maybe we are just playing the devil's advocate to try to challenge our own mindset and seek the truth. Its not changing the course of history. Even if we think that evil or backwards countries still have national interests or rights when even criminals have the right in court to defend themselves and not get them straight to the electric chair. 
  20. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Valid point but keep in mind that many of us here are not native speakers, so don't interpret too much into single words/sentences. Also what you describe can be used as a way to manipulate your audience or just be an attempt at trying to find a common ground in order to lessen tensions a bit, as some topics we discuss can be really emotional to some.
  21. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Grigb, I sense you and your family have a personal inflicted wound from soviet times or today's Russia. Because you are really passionate about hating your own country in a way I haven't seen before. It's true I can't debate that, from my safe western corner of fantasies. But I can spot the personal side. The thing is, don't worry the message is getting across and we are not actually that passionate to defend Russia's actions. Maybe we are just playing the devil's advocate to try to challenge our own mindset and seek the truth. Its not changing the course of history. Even if we think that evil or backwards countries still have national interests or rights when even criminals have the right in court to defend themselves and not get them straight to the electric chair. 
  22. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You already quoted the difference yourself there. The quote is about labor camps. It talks about the concentration camp part of Auschwitz. Not the extermination camp. Those were rather unique, I think. You can argue that if they compare mortality, who cares about how they did it. I still think, there is a difference in forced labor, not caring that people die in the process and sending them directly to the gas chambers.
    Anyway, we should not get into a competition on who had the bestest evil empire.
    And I still stand by what I said earlier: modern day Russia, as bad as it is, is not on par with Nazi Germany and also, I think, not with the USSR under Stalin. We don't do us any favour if we neglect to see nuances.
  23. Upvote
    panzermartin reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ineed. There sure are Nazis in Russia but as bad as Russia is right now, it still has some way to go to reach the level of the 3rd Reich.
  24. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, nothing really compares to german engineering.
    On a serious note I don't mean to downplay the Gulag years, it is that those times were different and very harsh in history of humans. Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia.  
  25. Upvote
    panzermartin got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, nothing really compares to german engineering.
    On a serious note I don't mean to downplay the Gulag years, it is that those times were different and very harsh in history of humans. Even Russia has moved on since then although they still feel like a caricature mutation of soviet union and tsarist russia.  
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