panzermartin

Still a mystery that no Lancet caught a Himars off guard and the first kill is from a GMLRS. (Although I recall unconfirmed russian claims of destroyed himars in the past )

You are hoping that the younger ones of your opponent don't have any desire for war either. No more wars. Problem solved. If suddenly no one would enlist, then all wars could stop. Could be a reality after this war ends. But how will it end? The next option is war from distance, AI, robots, drones, guided by 16yr olds boys and girls but no human is allowed on the battlefield. Russia is in better shape because : - has survived the humiliating defeats of the first year. -It now has the momentum in the front lines and is gaining ground steadily. - defeated the long awaited Ukrainian counter offensive. -defeated (or maybe crushed) the hype around western wunderwaffen. -At last found a successful cheap way to employ the air force in support of ground operations. - Vastly improved drone fleet capabilities and operational efficiency. -has no conflicting internal voices anymore. No Prigozyn, no Navalny, no opposition, no crazy ultra nationalists. Just a dull grey homogenous military state. -caused serious cracks and doubt among Ukrainians and westerners if victory is possible. -western funding is now more insecure than ever. - has overcome sanctions and tech and production shortcomings. - has the upper hand in manpower and widening the gap while Ukraine is facing serious issues with mobilization. That doesn't mean it's in great shape of course. But in most ways it has adapted and wages war better than Feb 2022.

To be fair, I put in a certain perspective. That, if there is no collective desire to defend Ukraine *among the population of Ukraine, then there is no point in continuing this war and killing the willing and the bravest in a defensive retreat. These people have been the most heroic lot I have witnessed in my post 70s life. They can of course keep fighting until the end if that's their desire. But as an outsider peace seems like better option than a war until the very end. Peace would unfortunately mean Crimea and Donbas to Russians officially. For now. The fact they are already russian and probably not possible to retake, makes things less painful I guess. But what if peace now can prepare Ukraine better for the future? In a couple years time. With a proper airforce, with enough artillery shells, with even western presence in their land? Not to gear for another war but to show that they are impossible now to overcome. And at the same time a phyrric victory of an isolated Russia would mean that they are not able to keep up or prepare for second war. Then they slowly disintegrate, with the old people and the old soviet memories that somehow brought us here. With a Soviet flag of victory in the ruins of Bakhmut and the Black Sea fleet locked in Port and rusting. And a new generation of more open minded people that are fed up with a decaying country will eventually bring the change and bridge the two countries that speak the same words again. Actually war is what keeps Russia running at the moment. The idea that they are fighting the big collective West and the Slavic traitors feeds their struggle against daily misery. If this war ends what will keep them together? Kinda like pedaling and balancing a war bicycle. They are definetly in better shape than two years ago,yes can you believe this? As for demanding more from Ukrainians, It's somewhat cynical of us to expect them to carry the burden and defend all "western values" that they know little of, while we sit safely on our couch. I don't like it to be honest.

I don't think Ukraine can take back Crimea with 50yr old soldiers. They should go to the negotiations table already, if younger people don't care about fighting and stop wasting lives. A 45yr old can also breed you know. But he is not always capable of running to the next trench. War should be equal to all, young and old, poor and rich, otherwise it's not a war worth fighting for.

Chill farmers and brothers of the East...

Absolutely. It's now a country geared for war like Nazi Germany in the beginning of WW2. Plus they have huge stockpiles of weapons. We'll probably catch up later, when things get more serious... The continuous comedian approach on the russian army and state, didn't help the overall effort I think.

So, after 2 years the Russians finally found a way to make good use of their airforce. The good thing for them is that the stock of old FABs from the cold war is practically unlimited. (I'm not sure about the gliding kits though) I would even use strategic bombers from high altitude to release salvo of guided FABs, each designated a different target. I remember zaluzhny saying that they are at a moment where only a technological leap over the enemy would allow them to break enemy lines. Russians have found their wunderwaffe, mass use of glided bombs. For UKR that weapon could be a competitive airforce.

Yes but in this case, maybe we (the public) will learn about it later.

Could the sudden surge of Su 34s losses mean that a few F16s are already operating incognito with long range missiles. (Or Russians are more and more aggressive with the airforce and pushing forward less carefully). I'm not sure though Russians are facing an airforce elimination problem. Because the X factor (monthly losses) is not sure to continue at that rate. They could also invest more in older types like Su 24s for lobing bombs until they figure out what is going on. Strange why they use and keep losing their more advanced planes for primitive ground attack roles, with old refurbished gliding FABs.

Oh boy, there is no return if we go that way. I think there is little chance if one western country puts boots on the ground that the rest will sit and watch.

Thanks, It's going to hurt indeed, probably to the point they have to delay or redesign any offensive operations. What I'm not sure is how good was its radar in detecting incoming missiles or even drones. I think the UKR SU 24 stayed on the edge of the detection zone/AAA before launching their storm shadows.

So Russians keep losing precious hardware like they don't care. Do they realize this is not WW2 where T 34s and Il-2 get out of the factory straight to the Frontline in a fews weeks. Where do you think the loss of the A50 will hurt the most operationally the RU? Coordinance of gliding bombings, missile /drone warfare , situational awareness in ground? Time for unmanned air balloon radars.

Yeah, that was Zelensky's and the West's mistake in the first place. To promote the counteroffensive with directors cut videos, to brag about the wunderwaffen Leopards, Bradleys, Himars etc and publicly promote the idea that the goal was to reach Azov and kick the Russians out of Crimea. Even Russians believed that and created multiple zones of defense on Crimeas bottleneck. The results (while not so disastrous) really discouraged the public in the West

Ehehe. It has always been Pax Romana, Pax ottomana, Pax Europeana, Pax Americana for us small countries. Some peaces are better than others though I admit

Yes of course is Constantinople. Been in Istanbul the last week and got carried away. Thanks. Or maybe it is because I visited Hagia Sophia and there's almost nothing left of the greek /byzantine past inside

You think so? History has taught us that the fall first comes from moral/economic /social decline and bad strategies of decades not because of an individual's thoughts. No, Russia alone can't do that much damage to us, just like the Huns didn't bring Rome down all on their own.

Hey, we "peacefully" existed 400 years under the ottoman rule after the fall of Istanbul. Not the greatest of time but we are still here Yeah, there are choices, maybe less honorable. But probably most will not trade their lives for the hardest option. Anyway, no need to be so dramatic, we are not there yet...

OK just saw these numbers. Yes RU are losing a lot but still seems within the 1:3 defender /attacker ratio, is this correct?

Can we find accurate reliable numbers anymore? I doubt. This could be true in earlier stages but since the summer offensive Ukrainians are losing a lot too. Gliding bombs, drones etc have inflicted big damage to their forces, which repeatedly are being cut off in big cauldrons and get hammered until very last minute withdrawal. Another hint is that we don't see any mass mobilization from Russia this time yet Ukraine seems rather eager to gather personnel even asking/forcing people to return from abroad. Lastly, they keep losing ground every day. Even the little gains of summer offensive in Zaporizhia front. There are also no signs of any new Ukrainian offensive plan, unless it's being prepared in complete darkness for maximum surprise. But it's very unlikely.

And yet how realistic that civil war scenario still is? I can see Russians in social media reacting but (obviously) in an indirect way (metaphors, black profile pictures) since the war started and now with Navalnys death but we can't see a concrete opposition forming. Navalny, who was the big hope when alive, didn't have much impact on Russian public, we are taking about less than 10%. The last big crack with Wagners mutiny ended within 24h and I still can't understand what happened. So looks like Russia is past its big crises, the big defeats in the start etc , and looks like forming a homogeny politically/militarily entirely focused to win the war no matter the cost. This can go on until the last memories of glorious Soviet union and the great patriotic war fade away, along with Putin and Co. I rather expect a slow transition of Russia to younger generations of less autocratic leaders, within the same system, that will one day bring the first signs of peace and interaction between West and East. That the system will die slowly and not in a sudden way. But until then I think we will see more (slow) advances of the russian army and more integration of ukrainian land.

But the Ukrainians can?

What do you propose?

I get a feeling that whatever territory is being taken by Russia at this stage of the war, will remain to russia for a long time. Kinda like northern Cyprus. I think Ukraine's military peak was at the summer offensive. Can't get better anymore imo. I think now the problem lies not in equipment but in manpower and collective will to continue the fight. It will be impossible for Ukraine to gather the mass needed to take back strongholds the way Russia does. Drone harrasment can of course continue infinitely. I see no end to the attacks on the Black Sea fleet from Ukraine as well. Naval drones will probably continue to harass the russian ships. Unless they think of protective nettings and other measures, that would be a major headache. I think we might reach a point the best both sides could achieve would be a cease fire with probably Donbas and Crimea going to Russia.

First Leo1 loss? Is this krasnopol artillery And why tanks in this war just wander alone until they get killed