Vanir Ausf B

Into the teeth of unsuppressed AA? Doubtful. They have cruise missiles for that. Russian air is very active, but they stay close to their own lines.

It's hard to know if those numbers can be trusted. For example, Ukraine claims to have shot down 217 fixed-wing aircraft and 184 helicopters but Oryx confirms 35 and 48, respectively.

When all your tractors are busy towing Russian tanks use Mi-24 helicopters to harvest wheat.

Slightly longer version of the video showing the strike on the M777s, in two parts. Geo-located 48.866308, 38.389871

Just wait until you hit 50 members. Trust me, nothing happens but bickering.

NY Times article offering various observations and opinions. Nothing earth shaking. https://www.yahoo.com/news/pivotal-period-ukraine-u-officials-115145667.html

I now have a new podcast to listen to.

Not sure what that is based on. The Russian Army in general is heavily mechanized. But in any event, the interesting takeaway is that the 3.5 multiplier is just for WIA. It doesn't include MIA or POWs, both of which may be very significant in their own right.

Oh BTW, I was able to dig up the source for Kofman's 3.5 multiplier. Turns out it was not based on Western numbers.

Ok, fair enough on the multiplier. But even 2x gets you 120,000 total casualties. That is an impossible number. No way could Russia be holding a front that long with those loses. But yes, we will have to agree to disagree since no one knows the real numbers.

Well then what is? LOL You have to use some multiplier. Obviously no one knows the real numbers, but if you use multipliers much larger than 3.5x you quickly get into astronomical body counts. Russia didn't mobilize anyone before the war. They went in on Feb 24th at peacetime strength. Here, this has been posted before IIRC, but this is Kofman's analyses. It may not be correct but I would bet it's a lot closer to correct than Karl from Estonia's Note these are from a month ago so are outdated, but I think the methodology is sound. So how can we figure what might be plausible Russian KIA and total casualties? First, its hard to go off of oblique official estimates and selective intel releases. Things won't add up. No good way to know what is being counted or how. Also, it can change over time. For example, it appears at some point US official BTG counts started to include the DNR/LNR units whereas before it seemed they did not. So the initial BTG counts of 125-130 may not have included the 'separatist' corps or Rosgvardia. Also, these estimates are done in ranges and with confidence levels. Governments typically release these figures without explaining the estimate range, or their confidence level in those figures. So you might be hearing a conservative or a high estimate. Combatants in war will often overstate opponent losses and understate their own, or not release those figures at all. This is to be expected. The numbers are intertwined with information operations, considerations of own troop morale, external support, etc. The first problem is figuring out Russia's initial force. As we've come to learn the average BTG size was probably not 800, or 750, but probably closer to 600. Not all units deployed as BTGs, but the main maneuver force was possibly 80-90k. Auxiliaries such as 'separatist' army corps, and Rosgvardia might be another 20-25k. And an unknown amount of non-BTG dedicated support units. These are difficult to estimate, but they would not dramatically inflate the force involved. Making a third of BTG formations combat ineffective (50% casualties) could require just 3.3k KIA. Indeed, 10k KIA could easily add up to 45k total casualties or more. 15k KIA would take it towards 75k. I'm using just 3.5 as a multiplier here (imagine applying x5.7). The problem with higher range KIA counts is that you quickly develop input/output problems. There are more casualties than could feasibly be involved in the fight. That is, certain numbers become implausible given the size of forces involved. What about Russian reinforcements? Well, assuming 10-15 BTGs additional from the rest of the force, and other sources like mercenaries, you might be looking at another 10-12k troops in the war during the second phase. It does not dramatically alter the picture. Alternatively, one could assume 150k forces massed on UKR borders on Feb 23rd (not 190k total op related force). Here I'm doing what I advised against, using opaque official figures, but I know it is tempting. 1/3 of that figure, as total casualties, could come from ~12k KIA. This is all circling around a target. Given the gaps, my own confidence is quite low, but I think some of the figures out there don't reconcile well. Based on what I suspect, but ultimately don't know, I think 7k is low, 15k is high, and 10-12k KIA might be the middle. To me this is a high casualty figure both relative to the potential size of the force involved, and Russian casualties in other wars. However, others might have a different take on this.

I did the math in my head wrong. It would be 180,000. 40,000 x 3.5 = 140,000 WIA. 140+40=180,000

Then pick a better number. I'm just pointing out that 40,000 KIA would translate to roughly 185,000 total casualties. There would be no Russians left in Ukraine.

Well in that case I would like to see Karl from Estonia's estimate and how he came up with it. Kofman is quite explicit that he has low confidence in that number, that it could have been as low as 7,000 or as high as 15,000. But that is beside the point, which is that it can't be anywhere near 40,000. If it were the UA would be half way to Moscow by now.

That 40,000+ KIA number won't die. A month ago Kofman estimated Russian KIA at a more realistic 10-12,000. It's probably 15,000-ish by now.

"Yesterday our soldiers successfully used their bodies to intercept thousands of bullets."

Putting to bed the question as to whether T-62s were the only usable tanks the Russians have in storage...

Looks like the MQ-1C Gray Eagle sale may be delayed or canceled. https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-drone-sale-ukraine-hits-213218697.html

It's not so much the finished products as it is the raw materials. _____ WASHINGTON — The United States has relied almost entirely on China — and to a lesser extent Russia — in recent years to procure a critical mineral that is vital to producing ammunition. The mineral antimony is critical to the defense-industrial supply chain and is needed to produce everything from armor-piercing bullets and explosives to nuclear weapons as well as sundry other military equipment, such as night vision goggles. “There is no domestic mine for antimony,” according to a 2020 report from the U.S. Geological Survey, a government agency. “China is the largest producer of mined and refined antimony and a major source of imports for the United States.” _____ https://www.defensenews.com/congress/budget/2022/06/08/the-us-is-heavily-reliant-on-china-and-russia-for-its-ammo-supply-chain-congress-wants-to-fix-that/

Speaking of casualties... _____ "Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday. The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian troops were being killed daily as Russia stepped up its Donbas offensive. Over the past two weeks that number has climbed significantly according to David Arakhamia, who leads Ukraine's negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky's closest advisers. Ukraine has recruited one million people into the army and has the capacity to recruit two million more, Arakhamia said, so it has the numbers to continue the fight in Donbas, where Russia has been gradually gaining territory. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley was asked about the rate of Ukrainian casualties on Wednesday and said it was difficult to estimate but previous media reports of around 100 killed and up to 300 injured each day had been "in the ballpark of our assessments." He was not responding to the latest Ukrainian estimate. Milley also said Russia had taken "huge" losses and Ukraine was fighting effectively." _____

Xi Jinping says:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/were-almost-out-of-ammunition-and-relying-on-western-arms-says-ukraine?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other That's 150,000-180,000 rounds per month. I wonder how many 155mm shells NATO has and can spare?