LongLeftFlank

Many thanks for the monograph, very interesting.

Perhaps you might honour us with your own better educated views on these issues then, instead of just pronouncing "he's wrong". Do these errors invalidate his conclusions? Are we expected to defer to your say so and disregard him en bloc? Falsum in unum, falsum in omnibus? (And referring us to textbooks is not an refutation, it's handwaving). EDIT: Sorry, this comes across as a little snippy, but I would like to have better information on these topics if it's out there. However, I don't have time to wade through entire books, nor do I think that's necessary to understand the essential moving parts for this conflict.

Well, a Ukrainian field media crew in an earlier posted clip referred to the Russians repeatedly as 'Mosculs' and occasionally 'orcs' (although others reserve that for Chechens). So, that dehumanizing is gonna happen as more blood is shed.

Yes, Kamil is a fantastic strategist and historian, but is less sound on pure military stuff, so YMMV.... His tweet threads have become popular and so many get bombed midway through by the usual Twits. So for those interested, here are links to the 'unrolled' versions (although these don't have most of the images he puts in the tweetstorms). Not in order of posting: Russian demographics 1: geography https://kamilkazani2.substack.com/p/how-did-russia-get-so-big?s=w Russian demographics 2: the southern 'ganglands' https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493602653586264076.html The Russian economy 1 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501360272442896388.html The Russian economy 2 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499855858456567809.html The rise of Putin https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496711906412933121.html Dormant Russian institutions https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499048492358111235.html Russia's State Security State https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496506490202513413.html Putin's elite https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495790874235744258.html Kadryov's Chechnya: Putin's warlord vassal https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html Political institutions of the Mongol Golden Horde https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492164056962195457.html Assabiyahs: Russia's autocracies over time https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492549093771694082.html Why doesn't the Russian Army rule Russia any more? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493968165717561346.html The decay of the Russian Army https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502673952572854278.html Russia didn't launch a war, but a 'special operation' Crisis and Jubilees: barons vs courtiers https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503430216554795014.html No, Ukraine isn't just a separatist Russian province... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495469553136066572.html Geography shapes Ukraine's history https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495200579919958021.html Ethnopolitics in Ukraine (and Russia) https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1494334415446577153.html A short background on Russian expansionism https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492960693737463813.html So who are the 'Nazis' anyway? https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497306746330697738.html "Z" Russia has gone full fascist https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500495309595725831.html Should we be 'giving Putin a way out?' https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503053699798769666.html Napoleon's 1812 error: deescalation https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503768312236421120.html How Putin 'derussified' East Ukraine https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html

And here is another aspect of Shoygu's reforms.... Full thread here. I cannot recommend Galeev highly enough. https://mobile.twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204

More UA artillery turkey shoots against densely packed RA laagers (2 parts). I can't get the left hand map to show showing all the strung out Russian column/LOCs, but comparing it with the stonk video (and so many others like it in prior days), it gives one a sense of how completely and utterly roadbound the Russian army remains. In 1983 -- yup, 39 years ago -- I remember asking an Afghan mujahideen what he thought of the Russian soldiers and he shrugged and said: we have no idea, they never get out of their vehicles. Plus ca change. Also, one would think that in a properly functioning logistical effort, most of those trucks would be rolling back and forth, busy as bees, ferrying shells and whatnot for the 'big push'. Not just sitting there waiting to be pulverized.

Fixed that for ya....

Kazan Tatar academic Kamil Galeev continues to provide very insightful tweetstorms on the cultural-historical and politico-economic dynamics in Russia that give context to this conflict. This is his 26th such: Unrolled thread (sans images) for after the Twits start chiming in, breaking the feed.... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503430216554795014.html Every major crisis entails mass redistribution of power, property and status.... Oligarchs' assets frozen, Russian central bank assets frozen. It's the annulment of obligations to both Russian "state" and "private" actors. Arrest of mega yachts are just the most visible element of a general trend - seize what you can seize. It goes both ways though.... During the Soviet Jubilee of 1989-1991 this was happening on all levels. Whoever borrowed some direct control over resources, privatised them. They cashed out and defaulted on their loans. State-appointed CEOs became oligarchs. Governors became kings in their provinces. And so on.... Anyway, it goes on to describe how Putin recentralized power -- and graft! -- among his cronies and backers, but now may stand to lose it back to regional 'barons' as central authority breaks down, again, in the wake of a humiliating defeat.... Galeev also notes elsewhere that Ukraine has its own mafiya 'barons' who have no wish to bend the knee and pay the rake to Moscow.

The Dude Abides.... Game over, man

Good footage, though not good news. Shoot and scoot. I find it hard to believe that after nearly 3 weeks of high intensity mechanized warfare on multiple axes, Russian KIAs are less than 8000 men. Especially as I doubt their medevac is functioning much better than the rest of their logistics effort.

Yup, that all makes a lot of sense. What remains to be tested is whether these tactics work as well once the Russians dig in -- by which I don't just mean static bunkers or wire/mine belts, but continuous roving patrols able to detect, fix and call in arty (or CAS) on intruding detachments. If the Russians can't manage this kind of defence, they really don't deserve to be called a modern army. ... And if they can figure it out, the UA is going to have to change its tactics too and test its capability to mass, maneuver and sustain heavy mech and supporting fires to break those defenses, under conditions where the Russian air force still seems to enjoy (limited) air superiority.

Incorrect re Iran, but this thread already has too many tangents....

But just as scumbags like Marc Rich and later Adnan Khashoggi were happy to profiteer for years from reflagging embargoed Iranian oil, there are whole global firms (Glencore, Trafigura, etc. -- the spawn of Rich -- and countless oligarch family offices worldwide who effectively own their countries and are immune to their laws) who are only too happy to circumvent the hell out of sanctions, buying Russia's many valuable resources cheap (from Putin's cronies) and selling them at market, arbitraging the difference. The profits are just too huge to ignore, and are easily laundered. Spookworld knows all this stuff and is in on the game. In 2 years nobody will care enough to waste political capital turning the screws: Ukraine doesn't have the political jam. Hell, I predict breaking the embargoes will be a huge chunk of their own economy.... And of course there's the Chinese.

Interesting points, thanks. At this point though, it seems to me 'political value' to Putin is measured solely in terms of the Russian political class that keeps him in power (and breathing). Foreign opinion (China excepted) holds no weight. ....So at some point soon Bonaparte must abandon his hollow Grand Armee to the tender mercies of the Tractor Cossacks and focus on shaping a vaguely plausible narrative that ends the shooting (for now) and keeps him alive. So 'pacifying' Kherson, Melitopol and Mariupol, in order to hold the 'land bridge to Crimea' once the cease fire is called and show *something* for all the terrible losses has got to become top priority for him. I expect to see all his most reliable VDV, Marines, Interior Ministry, FSB osoby and other thugs showing up down there.

"Smolensk, 200 miles east of Minsk...."

Good post, here's a data point. These tanks aren't in combat positions, so assume they were hiding (unsuccessfully) from air strikes. No sign of 'captured' though, look like wrecks.

1. Kinetic kills: UA tank picks off 2 RA vehicles advancing down a road. Watch the southeast corner of the screen starting around 0:15 of the clip. For CMx3, will BFC be working up some much bigger new smoke, flames and charred flaming wreck mods/decals, in light of all these live action brew ups? 2. Vehicle recovery in action: 3. Good counter battery fire! against amateurishly deployed Russian heavy mortar gunpits. Look at those ammo carriers, out in the open. A WW2 battery could go to town on them, forget the drones.... From the original Telegram feed (autotranslate): Guys from 72 OMBR with brothers from the Right Sector destroyed the 122 mm howitzer, D-30 gun and ammunition stockpiles. And also slightly damaged 2 D-30 and 120 mm mortar. Well, a little, it will not shoot. Well, two infantry fighting vehicles will no longer buzz the residents of Vyshhorod under the windows

Corroboration from the West, though not yet formally confirmed

More good stuff from Kamil Galeev on sanctions and the Russian economy: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501676859741904898.html 1. What would moral crusade oriented sanctions look like? Inflict economic damage, so that population revolts and overthrows the regime. That's an imbecile idea that never really worked and probably never will.... Western people typically misunderstand Russia. They buy cheap propaganda of its collectivism & conservatism". Both are BS.... They're not conservative at all, just look at abortion statistics. It's super individualistic, super pragmatic society which doesn't care about any abstract "values".... No form of successful collective action is really possible in a country where such actions have been historically extirpated. For this reason, aiming sanctions to boost ideological motivated collective action is insane. It's not gonna happen . 2. Goal-oriented sanctions look differently. Maximise systemic shock in order to paralyse technological chains. That will lead to a military defeat, which will entail the fall of regime.... 3. Russia will integrate with China at any cost. But this is a task that should've been done before the war. The war is a systemic shock itself. Sanctions and severing technological from the West make it even harder. Russia might not have time to complete this work before collapse.... Chinese are not gonna altruistically help, they'll rip Russians off, using their leverage to its fullest 4. Russian economic collapse will entail the socio economic collapse of Central Asia as a second order effect. These countries live off money transfers from Russia. 5. There's only one rule: tell you're not from IT. Swear you are humanities grad, they'll let you out of Russia. Don't confess you're a coder.

Quelle surprise...

Apologies for piling on our dear old comrade JK, but this last summoned the classic exchange from 'A Fish Called Wanda': OTTO: "Apes" don't read... Philosophy. WANDA: Yes they *do* Otto, they just don't understand it! ....In 22 years on these boards I have never Ignored anyone, but I think at this point it's an act of mercy.

Once again, I will predict it here and we will see if events prove me right: 1. In the south, Russia will shortly begin digging in along a line Kherson - Vasilivkya (final stretch of Dnepr river), then northeast across the steppelands to Izyum/Kramatorsk (south of Kharkv). That means not a WW2 style continuous trench line/mine belts, but a chain of firebases and hedgehogs overwatching key junctions and towns and the barren no-mans land in between. 2. They continue the cruel, militarily pointless bombardments of the northern cities and limited probes to keep Ukrainian forces in contact and distracted, but will not continue their deep and costly advances. 3. For the same reasons of diversion, they will continue ops against Mikolaev. 4. Once they feel they've secured the southern line described above, including securing towns and destroying/dispersing regular UA formations behind their lines, they will propose an immediate 'humanitarian' cease fire, eagerly seconded by the Chinese (and probably India and some African states). 5. The Ukrainians of course refuse at first, demanding full and complete withdrawal etc. That will be conceded in the north but not in the south. The Chinese and their 'nonaligned' bloc, again, lean hard on Zelensky to accept a 'temporary' stop line, dangling generous offers of billions in reconstruction aid (to be built by Chinese firms, natch). 6. The Ukrainians again refuse with indignation, but once they get a bloody nose or two and realize UA's offensive capability isn't in fact sufficient to eject the RA from the south, absent Western intervention, they grudgingly acquiesce to a cease fire that includes full and immediate RA withdrawal from the entire area Kiev-Kharkiv. 7. Dig dig dig, both sides. Long drawn out talks about the occupied southern zone and 'reparations' provide the likes of Macron and the Germans ample opportunity to posture and virtue signal, but go nowhere in substance. And in 2023, a Chinese monitored "referendum" in those oblasts indicates -- surprise! -- a solid majority prefers 'independence' a la Luhansk, Donetsk. Anger, grief, rage against 'betrayal' on the Ukrainian side but the bourgeois West has frankly lost interest. War is over, good job Ukes, but don't start it up again. And sorry no, you can't be in NATO cuz nuclear war. 8. In spite of a terrible period of economic disruption (with brutal repression, brain drain etc.), Western sanctions are gradually evaded with the active connivance of China, Iran, Turkey and any number of other double dealers (Greece, Hungary.... Italy?) smelling money. Russia is a resource economy and we're in an up cycle for demand. 9. Putin spins all this as a victory at home, claiming that the vital Crimea 'land bridge' and the rest of 'Russian majority' Donbas is all he ever wanted all along. Russians who suspect differently keep their mouths shut; most ordinary folks just choose to believe it and tune out Western 'propaganda'. 10. In the respite, RA absorbs the many bitter lessons learned and overhauls its forces, equipment and doctrine, with a more defensive mission given that it now has a furious enemy state on its borders. Recall too, Russia still has 3x Ukraine's population (+ Belarus). TL:DR, I don't think the UA has the wherewithal, even with full mobilization, to eject the RA from any territory of limited size it puts a serious effort into holding. My prediction. It gives me no joy, Ukrainian friends, but I haven't seen evidence yet that I am wrong.

...Signal to noise ratio is asymptotically approaching zero.

Another battlefield panorama, though no shooting in evidence. More good shooting. I like seeing UA conventional artillery in action; indicates more substance in the forces than just irregular infantry detachments humping around rockets. That capability will become critical once the fighting becomes more static. Artillery is the long term killer, as we all know, and that hasn't changed. Hmm.