LongLeftFlank

The general sighed / as the lines on the map / moved from side to side [Edit: I misread the first map]

Don't disagree mate, but attrition can cut both ways, and gear alone won't take back ground. Or maybe it will..... RELEASE THE ROBOT DOGS!!!!!

Sure, but that's the tactical thesis I'm trying to chase here through the fog and smoke and red herrings..... Ukie "Partisans With Javelins" have been generally kicking the ass of roadbound mech (and air) forces to this point, it looks like.... But that doesn't mean these tactics don't have a suitable counter. And I have grave doubts these groups are nearly as effective on the attack, trying to dislodge an enemy who has organized a defensive zone, deployed his own mobile killer teams and moreover has good arty support on call. I personally think the Russians can do this, especially with their VDV and Chechen units. And others can learn quickly enough. Not to go back to the confusing analogies thing, but one recurring theme of military history is that you shouldn't assume your enemy remains stupid....

Sorry if I am not clear. The analogy is neither to the VN terrain nor their political situation. It is to the the US/ARVN strategy of establishing firebases in contested areas in order to support search and destroy ops by mobile forces. Same tactics used in parts of A'stan. ...But I don't think analogies are helping either of us at this point. I'd rather stick to the topic of, would *today's* Russian Army be able to set up and sustain/support such a defense and how might *today's* Ukrainian Army overcome it at an acceptable cost? My contention is that a stalemate would eventually equal a Russian 'win', however pyrrhic. In time the world would prevail on the Ukrainians to accept a cease fire. Also, @The_Capt, I have never thought taking everything east of the Dniepr including the densely populated Kharkov-Kremenchug corridor, was any more feasible than seizing the whole country. I'm talking about the southern areas only that they mostly already 'hold', from Izium south -- the rest of the Donbas, plus the wedge between the Dniepr delta, Crimea and the Sea of Azov (Crimea's 'land bridge')

Correct geo footprint, sure, but badly flawed analogy IMHO with regards to the road net, the size of the armies engaged (and at war over 2 years already and both fully mobilized for total war) and the technologies available to them. This would be more like a Vietnam war environment IMHO, with the Russians not entrenching along continuous belted lines but in various hedgehogs and firebases whose primary mission is to support infantry combat groups.

Please, no. There are Taiwan threads. This thread is already stuffed with tangents.

Between the rasputitza and nimble squads of "light infantry" living off the land and bearing shoulder firepower that can infiltrate, flank and kill everything from MBTs to fighter bombers at standoff range, I'd say the above is a pretty good summary. My prediction remains though that both sides can, and will, play at that game. So while all those strung out Russian BTG columns from Izium to Kiev will be reduced to scrap (like so many French Groupes Mobiles in Indochina), with their crews fleeing home on foot or surrendering, a new Russian-controlled defensive line (frontier) will be drawn along the Dnieper from Kherson to near Zhaporozhe, and thence east across the open steppe to the Donbas rebel 'republics.' The war of movement will be at an end and this time it will be Russians defending their 'land bridge to Crimea', in a more limited sized war that they are more capable of fighting and sustaining, while negotiating for a cease fire (with Chinese support). Facts on the ground. ... I believe that for all Zelensky's determination not to compromise with the invaders, UA attacks to retake those lost lands will fail badly, in much the same way their enemies did. They will now be facing better trained, organized, motivated and led missile-armed infantry combat groups --VDV, Chechens and various militia units -- who are moreover able to call artillery support from well dug-in firebases to fix and defeat incursions. [Whether that is enough of a 'win' for Russia's current rulers -- with or without Putin -- to remain in charge, I will leave to others. There's already too much politics invading this thread. If it's try or die, they will try] TL:DR. At present, tactical combat appears to favor a nimble, distributed 'open order' defense. Even shorter, the Javelin (etc.) is king of the battlefield. Thoughts, @The_Capt?

Not just Grads firing in this 2 min clip, the drone footage gives a panorama with some (choppy) zoom ins of what looks to be an entire RA BTG in close action here, well worth a view or two. Peremoha is about 40km due east of Kiev. Hitting the fuel lines of a mechanised army is the equivalent of body blows in boxing. Didn't they estimate the life span of a chopper jock over the FEBA in Fulda in seconds, not even minutes? Poor kids. Nice shooting. Mortars? At the end, the dronecam pans left to show the Dniepr.

Zaleev agrees. here's the unroll version sans images https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500495309595725831.html

I left off the "irony quotes" the second time. But face it dude, Pinky Pie stickers are clearly visible on this one Azov reservist's wire laying gloves. And Everybody Knows© that Brony *totally* equals, like, Nazi. MLP are the new SS runes. They also have ponies tattooed in their armpits to denote blood group. (do I really need to add a /sarc tag for you?)

Yup. However, while the Russians are (trying to) make a big deal of UA 'Azov nazis' pocketed in Mariupol (how many?), the fiercest fighting seems to be in the towns north, between there and Donetsk, involving separatist militias ("Sparta" battalion), plus Chechen units fighting on both sides (clan feuds). And of course those Azov Nazi guys. So I have no idea whether this grab bag of Russian forces will be up for 'thrusting' northward toward Zaporozhe and Dnepro once they've taken Mariupol and the Azov sea coast, as seems likely to occur. The second photo seems to show the sea at the top, so presumably Mariupol? Note: ZOKA is a Serb beating drums for the Russians, so season to taste. The next clip is a little odd though; while Ukis are capturing or burning whole RA columns 30 vehicles at a time, here you see Russians triumphantly despoiling, umm, about 5 rounds of 9mm, Azov nazi gym equipment and some 1995 field manuals? Well, urrah pobeda, dudes. Not exactly the destruction of Army Group Center going on here.

Noted. I know emotions are high and people are venting, but I'd really rather stick to the military situation here.

It looks to me that the oblasts south of the Dnieper bend and adjoining the separatist Donbass areas are now lost, and Putin can claim (at home) a 'strategic win' even if he has to withdraw or abandon the other columns and cease fire. I just don't see the Ukrainians having the offensive capability to retake these areas before the Russians reinforce them. Any other thoughts? Interesting video of the UA depot at Kherson captured by the RA.... Note: Pro-Russian sources.

Rasputitza, b*t*hcez.

For anybody wanting a succinct crash course on everything from the roots of the current war back to Putin's rise to power back to the Khanate of the Golden Horde, Kamil Galeev has done some superb work here, very readable: Relevant sample: A lot has changed [since 2014]. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia. Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war. Furthermore, combat they've seen is different. Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region. Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale. [Russian] troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg, a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But these additional echelons didn't exist. Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem.... supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind.

It is very hard to argue with this, under the circumstances. The *Russian people* are ultimately responsible for stopping this unconscionable aggressive war that their leaders have unleashed. If they do not, it is they who will bear the terrible consequences of failure. [Sigh, I've bit my tongue on this one for a while now. Feel free to kick me out for a bit, @BFCElvis] ....That being said, I feel I must say that, like many others here, I am tired of you using your country's righteous anger as a cloak for beating the drums of anti-Russian bigotry on this board, which you have doing now, for page upon page: - that Russians as a people are an ignorant easily gulled mob of Mongolized barbarians or bandits, deeply alien, with no indigenous culture - that they 'live and breathe war', and that their neighbours have received nothing from them for centuries but invasion and rapine. - Ergo, nothing but violence and treachery can be expected of such people, now and forever. These are ancient slanders, and within living memory they carry the vile stench of Hilfswillige and gas vans. (as noted, I have dear personal relationships who are all too familiar with where this kind of thinking leads) ...To take it further, I am a honestly a little suspicious you are presetting the table for the vengeful 'cleansing' of millions of ethnic Russians out of Ukraine once this invasion collapses and is repelled, as it will be. I have never credited the 'neo Nazi / Banderist / Azov SS' agitprop pushed by Putin et al., nor its '2 headed coin' dog whistle, but it is surely true no side has a monopoly on bigotry, and I regret you are showing it here now. Your anger towards Russians now is quite understandable, and I hope you are doing your bit for the defence -- but know that such binary Us/Them thinking ultimately undermines and retards the Ukrainian nation, condemning it to remain an 'Okrajina', disputed borderlands. Bloodlands. Feel free to refute any of the above! ...Finally, in this time of crisis, I suppose the ultimate proof (or refutation) must be: how many ethnic Russian boys and Russian speakers are out there right now, fighting and dying for the blue and gold? Slava Ukraine! But keep your wits, remain civilised, and don't lose the peace!

This thread is really interesting; I actually wrote a paper about this dual 'shock troops and regime cops' role for VDV in uni during the 1980s. It's not a reserve for a big war. Nope. It's a reserve for suppressing mutinies within Russia or in neighbouring countries. And that's largely done through psyops. Thus they work hard to seem scary. Kremlin sees Ukraine as a rebel province. The very existence of this country is mutiny. And if you need to suppress a riot, you send the riot police. So Putin sent there paratroopers and they were completely routed. Because they didn't expect organised resistance.... And after that initial failure the entire plan was broken.... Russia didn't plan for war and simply pushed forward with just one army echelon, so supply lines are unguarded.... VDV were also central players in the 1991 coup attempt, although they ultimately obeyed higher Army orders to return to barracks (I remember surly paras in Moscow flipping the bird to CNN cameras from their BMDs). Such checks and balances among military and paramilitary forces is known in many countries; in many Asian countries the 'police' has its own armour and can stand off a rebel army unit in a meeting engagement. Even the USA has some special internal roles for the 82nd Airborne and Marines; the various unit deployments around Washington DC today are no mere accident of history.

Great stuff @The_Capt, and again, I hope it keeps devolving much as you say. I especially like the idea of "who has whom encircled, again?" But [deep breath].... Like Zveroboy, I remain skeptical of the 'open warfare' striking power of the UA forces for the time being. To me, they seem highly fragmented, lightly armed, and also on the move now. We see mainly small infantry detachments in civilian cars, combing over abandoned Russian vehicles. Sure, such units can scrounge food and gas from civvies, but can they keep meaningful mech forces in the field for weeks? ...So I really don't know how well they can capitalize on RA blunders and lengthening supply lines to block or destroy those strung out BTGs before they reach the Dniepr. The patriotic militias are basically static formations, tactically valueless at the moment outside their own communities. Unless of course the Russians actually do try city fighting, which I am starting to doubt. What I fear most is that the "war of movement" will end in a few weeks, and this war will enter a terrible new phase. Let me spell out a 'worst case' scenario, and let you hack at it: 1. The RA will bypass or 'seal off' many urban centers, as well as huge swathes of 'hostile' country. Upon reaching the Dniepr, the BTG/RCTs will set up a web of fortified* cantonments / firebases to effectively interdict key crossings and road/rail junctions and assert 'control' over all of East Ukraine. * I guess I need to disagree here with Steve that Russians can't figure out how to dig in, wire up and mine secure perimeters, as they did in A'stan. 2. While these bases' supply lines will surely remain under steady attack, the UA light infantry won't be able to stop all convoys. Once entrenched, RA forces will become far less exposed to their own organizational shortcomings, and improve their defenses against such positional attacks as the UA can conduct: raids, drone swarms, whatever. 3. From those bases, the RA will be able to improve convoy security and over time, conduct seek and destroy operations as the weather improves, especially in the open steppe country. (This all assumes btw Russia mobilizes for total war; Ukraine should not base its defense strategy on the presumption of a popular revolt and withdrawal) 4. From there, I fear time shifts in Russia's favour. Large populations of Ukrainian civilians will run out of food and other essentials of life as the Russians either shut off their supply chains, or wherever they can, place them under control of mafiya gangs -- monopoly for allegiance! (yes, I've been rethinking my earlier notion that no Ukrainians will collaborate if the Russians demonstrate they are determined to stay. This tactic will likely work best in areas with many Russian speakers more likely to reconcile themselves to new rulers) This will all create an awful economic and humanitarian disaster, depopulating many cities. Of course, the Russians will be only too happy to offer (non military aged male / non-ethnic Russian) refugees 'humanitarian' safe passage west across the Dniepr. Draining the guerrilla 'sea', as it were. 5. Wasteful, pointless and cruel? Completely! But within a year, Putin could 'create a wasteland and call it peace', even victory, according to his own logic. A 'South Vietnam' scenario, sure, as an insurgency would drag on and on, but with a ruthless, stubborn occupier not interested in anyone's 'hearts and minds', and the West too scared of nuclear war to intervene. ... So what can the UA do to prevent this? Can it inflict heavy enough losses to force a withdrawal, or regime change before the Russians create 'facts on the ground'?

This 'military' thread has taken a rather bloodthirsty turn of late, hasn't it? Could we possibly get back to the operations and tactics, other than terror bombardments and Leviticus? 1. Once both sides declare no quarter, the (unarmed) civilians in occupied lands fare the worst. Those would be Ukrainians. 2. Anyhoo, once the firebases are set up, they will have ample perimeter security. Even RA conscripts can handle that. The cutthroat commandos might be better served whacking the ammo supplies (that's what the Viet Cong and Iraqi resistance found).

I truly hope you're right and that the Russians will run out of, well, everything, long before they can execute The Plan. But the consequences of being wrong are the loss of nearly all Ukraine east of the Dniepr, whether or not the UA forces escape. Land which will be a lot harder to win back once the war of movement stops. So please indulge me, I'm going to quote this guy's feed some more as he is making some sense to me.... Encirclements are actually excellent when you don't want a lot of casualties: they neutralize enemy forces but don't require you to destroy them. [As] it's a hard point to understand from just looking at a map, it's worth going into what an encirclement entails.... At the operational level, any modern army is going to be entirely road-bound—especially in muddy conditions like we're seeing. This really limits the extent of an army's dispositions in the first place. It also means that "encircling" them requires occupying a relatively limited number of areas in force, with patrols in between. The real value of encirclement is that the forces within are cut off: no resupply of fuel, ammo, or food. This lets the attacking force follow up with a series of attacks and smaller encirclements while enjoying complete overmatch. The first targets of Russian air and long-range fires will be the HQs and comms. We should start seeing a lot more jamming too, after which individual positions will be surrounded and overwhelmed. This is a slow, firepower-intensive process that is similar to a siege in many ways. Far more soldiers are likely to surrender than be killed in combat. Breaking out of encirclements is usually costly no matter what, but beats the alternative. The fact that the LPR/DPR were actually able to break out does suggest that Ukraine's Donbas forces were pretty substantially degraded/withdrawn at some point since the beginning of the operation. Assuming roughly half of the Russians' 200k are in the south and that there are still ~45k Ukrainians in the Donbas (many have very likely been withdrawn), this will be a lengthy but feasible process for the Russians. BUT—and this is important—they haven't been encircled yet. Execution, on the other hand has been a lot worse, reflected in the poor state of readiness—THAT is where the miscommunications came into play.

Sobering thread here, from a very interesting feed.

As we all know, this war isn't going the UA's way every day and everywhere.... Fighting from BRDMs? HMG platforms, I guess. I suppose they'll serve against soft-skinned vehicles. (footage in 3 parts)

Kofman: "My working thesis right now, in the absence of much to go on, is the VDV 'doing its thing' - trying to seize key infrastructure, even though these missions are risky and not well supported"

Agree, I suspect as a fallback they'll try to keep the entire south bank of the Dnieper from Mariupol, the rest of the Donbas and maybe the sparsely settled oblast around Samy (which is stubbornly holding out, so far). Declare a 'cease fire' and dare the Ukrainians (or NATO) to try to take it back. Putin would obviously love to gobble up the more densely populated Kharkov oblast as far as Kremenchug (i.e. all of East Ukraine) but that just seems too big a bite to me, given what we've seen of RA capabilities, even with a full national mobilisation. That part of Ukraine is well populated and would resist fiercely for years. Finally, as noted earlier, Slavic Russia is a falling birthrate society: human wave attacks by hordes of muzhiks just ain't happening. So, they 'ethnically cleanse'. Then what? Resettle their new lands with... who exactly? Chechens? Yakuts? Idiots!