LongLeftFlank

...good eye mate, I did notice the running crewman was 'sped up' 1910 newsreel style. No April Fool for you. But in other For Make Ineptitude Glorious Russian War Machine anecdata, these 3 BMPs look to me like they were lost to bogging, not enemy action. Separ militiamen assuming that their tin cans can climb any embankment or brush obstacle, cuz tracks? Hmm, oh, except for those telltale shell or mine craters.... Where's their curling brooms, eh? Mind, you, Iraqi insurgents would occasionally burn holes in pavement using battery acid....

Hmm. Also, every AAA or security asset now tasked with protecting the Rodina is one less out in the field protecting the RA.... Of course, even if the fuel IS getting into the tanker trucks of Rollbahn E, there's this.... KABOOM! ....But wait! That's not all. Order before midnight tonight and get a special bonus flank kill shot, on the move! EDIT: this is a Blue on Blue FF kill! [/PutinFacepalm] Further bonus (they just keep rolling in!): whose spectacular brew up mod are you using? Zoom in and watch the last few seconds... the lead BMP gets killed, 2 crew bail out and one breaks the world speed record dashing to cover moments before a RU tank behind accidentally cooks off the wreck with a hasty shot. Keystone Kommisars here. Or orcs... 'Garn! You missed him,' said the tracker. 'First you shoot wild, then you run too slow, and then you send for the poor trackers. I've had enough of you.' He loped off. 'You come back,' shouted the soldier, 'or I'll report you!' 'Who to? Not to your precious Shagrat. He won't be captain any more.' 'I'll give your name and number to the Nazgûl,' said the soldier lowering his voice to a hiss. 'One of them's in charge at the Tower now.' The other halted, and his voice was full of fear and rage. 'You cursed peaching sneakthief!' he yelled. 'You can't do your job, and you can't even stick by your own folk. Go to your filthy Shriekers, and may they freeze the flesh off you! If the enemy doesn't get them first. They've done in Number One, I've heard, and I hope it's true!' The big orc, spear in hand, leapt after him. But the tracker, spring behind a stone, put an arrow in his eye as he ran up and he fell with a crash. The other ran off across the valley and disappeared. For a while the hobbits sat in silence. At length Sam stirred. 'Well I call that neat as neat,' he said. 'If this nice friendliness would spread about in Mordor, half our trouble would be over.' Or wait, maybe we're all being pranked for April Fools' Day by cunning Russian trolls.

Don't be too quick to disregard it entirely though. Nighttime Helo lifts out of Mariupol are a *very* high risk operation and the UA knows it. I am a little skeptical that it would be done purely to evacuate wounded. Possible, but not likely. So a pullout of key Azov cadre who 'know too much' to be let fall into enemy hands seems militarily plausible.

'Dismembered' is a very interesting choice of word. Let me flip that on its head and float a counterthesis that I've been thinking about lately. ....Like many others here, I started in this Mother of All Threads way back in late Feb. fairly sure that the Russians were going to leave 1000+ dead tanks along their northern 'Groupes Mobiles' routes, but wind up biting off and holding a big chunk of Ukraine, running roughly Kherson-Zaporozhe-Izium (the 'land bridge to Crimea' + Donbass). This would be enough for Putin to declare victory, and that's more or less where he seems to be heading now. So yeah, we called it. Yay us.... But after reading the writings of the pros here and considering the documentary evidence, I find myself optimistic (nay Pollyannish) enough now to wonder how far the pendulum could possibly swing in the other direction. Let's say the UA combat battalions prove willing and able to systematically envelop and demolish clumsy Russian defensive positions manned by undermotivated kids, and restore the entirety 2022 border? (I'm not talking about retaking Crimea btw, as I doubt the population there would support the UA as liberators) ...So if that's where the cease fire line is drawn, Putin is Napoleon and Russia is defanged for the moment, what then? Can Zelensky create a stable (and honest) enough unity government and draw in enough Western/Asian investment to create a new Ukraine? With a shiny new Kharkov and Mariupol rising from the ruins, with chip fabs and GMP pharma plants that are cost competitive with, say, Thailand and Vietnam? As Germany showed, having your infra bombed gives you a reason to build anew.... And if that happens, do Belarus and even certain oblasts in the 'Great Russian' heartland itself (e.g. Kursk, Voronezh and.... wait for it, Donbass, Crimea) begin gazing longingly across the frontier -- the new European frontier -- as their remaining young people start voting with their feet? .... Come on, who's coming with me? Anyone?

Hmph, well your take is a lot more charitable than mine. I still loathe that whole Asiatic mongrel (or was it inbreds?) untermenschen line our fellow traveler keeps pushing here. It's a dead end, poison for the soul. My Ukrainian/ Pale Jewish mischlinge inlaws (or their forbears) preferred swarthy Cossack rapists to gas vans and Babi Yar, thanks very much.

It would have been far more plausible had the rogue kids been part of a wider Yugoslav-style partisan movement and the occupiers showed as more 'overstretched'. John Milius knew his mil stuff (as Hollywood went) and for all we know that was his original vision.... But this was the 1980s Rambo/Aahnold era and all-American action heroes had to rack up body counts of 100:1.

Except, I suppose, by turning China into radioactive glass....

From Galeev's latest, the banality of evil.... Just watch this video clip and study the body language. Putin comes across as neither sick nor insane, quite intelligent and self aware in fact. What also comes across is an arrogant bully, accustomed to having yes-men around him. So, functionally indistinguishable from malice....

On the contrary, I think we have a succinct answer right here to the OP: How Hawt is Ukraine Going To Get? Zi nami Angel of Death!

Hmm, what's Ukrainian for: "Waal.... y'caunt get theyah from heeyah" ? https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/whats-the-best-way/2868135

'Crowdsourced warfare' sure enough!

Oh, that's been a thing in the Anglosphere too, since before lolcats...

Strewth, the switches between the ground footage and drone footage of the very same firefights is like CM brought to life! Don't miss these clips. They also bring this report previously cited by our good @Haiduk vividly to life: The Kyiv region is a full-fledged Wilderness. Just in one small forest near a small village being contested, I counted Armed Forces, National Guard, Territorial Defense, police, some glorious volunteer units, SOF, SBU, some mysterious unknown special forces guys with strange barrels and just armed muddy guys. All these guys are constantly moving, engaging and withdrawing, someone is brought in, someone is taken away, and everyone trying to 'strike it rich' with a weapon and ammunition from enemies or allies. Nobody has communication and coordinates with no one. The central command, if it even exists, doesn't control anything. Coordination is barely feasible - it isn't worthwhile to deal with someone on joint action, as in a few hours you find another unit in their place. The forest is under systematic hysterical shelling by the enemy of different intensivity and success level, from which all run away and later gather in new configurations. When the enemy tries to enter the village, our forces eliminate them and armed muddy guys run under fire to collect the weapons, smearing with a blood. Someone grabs Russian helmets, someone takes a shots of enemy corpses, someone writes combat reports. Or tank accidently encounters thre enemy BMPs, knocked them out and drove away. Shocked enemy infantry is decimated from three sides by unknown people. Whose tank was it? from where it came and where did it go? no one could answer. The single idea, which unites everyone like a cornerstone is TO KILL. This is Cossackship. This is the same "wind from Kholodnyi Yar", which hasn't a single center of coordination and supply. Where all these people come from, from where they arm themselves, where they go after, even they do not know. No military academy in the world teaches how to resist this. Welcome to hell. Muddy guys, for the win!!!!!!!

"Puta?" LOL!!!!!!! Saint Cyril is blushing...

Combat Mission Black Sea: Necropanzer! And now we finally know what the Z stands for!

On the Pravda principle, I generally loathe articles that proclaim "The Truth About _______!", especially on fraught topics like this one, but Aris Roussinos has earned my respect for good judgment in past war reporting, so I'm posting this here. https://unherd.com/2022/03/the-truth-about-ukraines-nazi-militias/ Ukraine is not a Nazi state, but the Ukrainian state’s support — for whatever reasons, valid or otherwise — of neo-Nazi or Nazi-aligned groups makes the country an outlier in Europe. The continent has many extreme Right-wing groups, but only in Ukraine do they possess their own tank and artillery units, with the state’s support. These militias and their Russian (and Caucasian -- Chechen, Dagestani, Georgian, etc.) counterparts, as well as the racketeers who fund them, will remain key players in East Ukraine in the post armistice environment. They will be a millstone around the neck of any postwar reconstruction and modernization efforts, foreign or domestic. I would argue this topic is 'military' as well as 'political', since the next phase of this conflict is likely to resemble Syria or Iraq or post-2010 Chechnya, where powerful local barons vie -- violently -- to seize whatever cash flows -- aid, trade or other -- is available. It might be worthy of its own thread however....

Much of this is familiar to readers here, but a good summary of the RA comms problems: https://www.rferl.org/a/communication-lapses-russia-invasion-failures/31761259.html Some of the roots of the Russian communication lapses lie in mismanaged development and procurement processes for things like tactical military radios, undertrained and under-deployed specialists, and the challenges of operating on foreign soil, where the enemy controls not only cellular networks but also wired communications that frequently serve as a reliable backup channel.... RA troops are forced to use a system that's common to the least advanced among them.... In other words, mixing so-called open and encrypted systems makes them only as strong as their weakest link. " ....outside the bases of the Russian armed forces in Syria, everyone uses mobile phones and Chinese 'balalaikas,' a reference to civilian walkie-talkies manufactured by China's Baofeng. The Russian battalion tactical groups immediately went a much greater distance from the border, [and] appeared to have outrun their communications support.... Repeater cars and new communication towers need to be installed along the way, and their set-up and use require experienced operators. Indirectly, this indicates that the Russian offensive groups didn't expect to stay on the road for a long time. ...they simply take out Ukrainian SIM cards and call Russia, allowing the Ukrainian military and intelligence not only to easily intercept the content of the conversations, but also to determine the location of the caller.... many Russian generals talk on unsecured phones and radios, and in at least one case Ukrainians geolocated a call and killed him in an attack on his location.

Well, the French bistro is derived from the Russian for 'hurry up!' (aka 'schnell!') which the Russians occupying Paris after Napoleon used to shout at the waiters.... Basically, the world's first 'fast food'. And until our dear comrade @BeondTheGrave shows up to ruin a fun story yet again with dull as dishwater historical literalism , here is my muse Kamil Galeev's twitternote on that same episode: ...I'll finish with a little known fact. Borodino Battle near Moscow was the single bloodiest day of the Napoleonic wars. Russian soldiers stood all day beating off one French attack after another. They lost 39000 men, but didn't run away being gunned, shelled and charged by cavalry You know where Russian army lost more men than at Borodino? In France. After Russian army occupied France, soldiers realised that this is a far richer nation. And after Napoleonic wars it has few men in countryside. So you can easily find a girl wit HER. OWN. PLOT. OF. LAND. In a rich country with few adult males who now how to farm their positions on sexual and economic market were great, far better than they could ever be in Russia. Bonus point, the country had no passport system, so you could just disappear and it would be hard to find you And the army started disintegrating. It probably lost around 45 000 men due to desertion, much more than at Borodino. Tsar Alexander was very upset and asked king Louis if he could find them. Louis said sorry no - and Alexander marched out with remaining forces out of France asap The same soldiers who stood to death against Napoleon when they had no way out, deserted in huge numbers the moment they saw they way out and advantageous perspectives after. So they voted by legs, ending Russian occupation of France quicker than planned This should be taken into account when planning modern policies. If you want to influence people, you should give them salt. And you give it to those who *really* need the salt you have. Napoleon deluded himself he has salt Alexander needs, but he couldn't offer him anything. YMMV.

"Crowd sourced warfare" - that's a keeper!!!!!

4/ The Russian and the Ukrainian organized crime have always been partners. The most important Russian mafia organization, the Solncevskaja bratva, is governed by a diarchy: the Russian Sergej Michajlov, called "Michas", and the Ukrainian Semyon Mogilevich, called "The Brain".

"Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle (...) If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second." - Josip Broz Tito

It is definitely going that way, sad to say. But I'm also hoping that there are enough ethnic Russians fighting for the UA, so that the wannabe ethnic cleansers (which sadly may include some folks on here ) don't get to have their day, a la Croatia's savage retaliatory expulsion of Serbs (and Bosniaks) from the.... wait for it... Krajina region. There is no future for Ukraine as an 'ethnic state' along the lines of the Baltics. Too many groups have crisscrossed, colonised and intermarried in that territory for too long. Federalism and (hopefully) stronger links to Central Europe, plus better government at home, must be the future; the alternative is disintegration and impoverishment, except perhaps in the Galicia zone and Odessa (?) Thoughts, anyone else?

Moldovans and Albanians could follow suit too. WELCOME TO MOLDOVA. YOUR CAR IS HERE ALREADY

Yes, we seem to be in a period where leg infantry squads with precision shoulder fired rockets can single-shot-kill pretty much anything from bunkers to MBTs to helos to jets at standoff ranges, as well as their supply vehicles. For defenders, the 'low tech'* counter is to send out their own hunter teams on foot, with the ability to call in artillery to fix and kill intruders approaching within missile range of the defenses. But that requires excellent tactical comms and training which will take some time to refine. I also expect the Russians to use the nasty old tactic of creating 'denied zones' by scattering millions of cheap (Chinese?) plastic mines and bomblets, which will sadly be killing civilians for another 2 generations. * 'High tech' being mainly drones