LongLeftFlank

I'm not saying NBC has no military applications, just that in this environment they are pretty limited. Politically, they create severe blowback, likely up to and including a de facto Western intervention just short of WW3. To protect the children, etc. Plenty of precedent for that: Korean War, Vietnam War, Egypt 1973.... Agreed on your other points. RA readiness to wage this kind of warfare is.... questionable. When were the filters on all those BMPs last tested lol?

WMDs? IMHO, a mass murder of civilians using gas (delivered how btw?) or a small nuke would surely trigger rapid deployment of US/NATO AAA defences such as Patriots (plus security elements and possibly aircraft) to 'shield' Ukraine population centers... which would also just happen to impose an effective no fly zone across the entire conflict zone. Goodbye Russian air superiority. Gas (artillery delivered) is of very limited use in mobile battlespaces, and it quickly becomes a hazard to both sides. Decon requires a great deal of specialized work and equipment and I doubt the RA troops are up to it. Militarily, the only useful application I can see would be to assist a break-in to UA fixed positions along the Donbas front. How good is those troops' NBC gear? Can that be sent along if it hasn't already? And anyway, how badly does the UA need to hold those positions at this stage? they could always revert to mobile hybrid warfare like the others. Again, control of territory seems to have limited significance in this kind of war, in a purely military sense. Demolishing the enemy army and its ability to wage war is what's paramount. And I just don't see NBC furthering this, short of nuking whole cities. The Ukrainians have never showed any sign of being able to be intimidated into negotiating. NBC would only harden that resolve. Bac warfare is Pandora's box, making no distinction among hosts. Militarily useless unless you plan to secure a stalemate by killing everyone at home and abroad..... (One man's inexpert opinion)

nope, it was @The_Capt.

Many thanks for taking the time to reply; I specifically tagged you and Bil because you (and Steve) have spent rather a lot of time mastering 1980 era Red Army tactical doctrine at this level, and AFAICT, the BTG is just a repackaging of this lineage. ...The core concept seems to be that by putting the BTG 'tank guy' in charge of his own mobile heavy guns and supporting assets, this formation has everything it needs to find AND fix AND kill targets far more quickly and accurately than just calling in the regimental or divisional arty, still less the old 'programmed a day ahead rolling storm of Katyushas' approach. To me, the most visible breakdown seems to be coming in the 'fix' component of all that.... 1. The RA forward elements (almost invariably road columns) become seemingly frozen in place once in contact. They don't seem to be doing the immediate and aggressive 'move to flank' movements that age old Red Army doctrine mandates to locate and 'fix in place' the ambushing enemies for destruction. Based on the live action videos, as well as after action wreck photos, they just seem to fight and die in road column formation, trying and failing to outshoot the enemy in place. 2. But that also has to do with the UA not bothering with prepared positions (which may become liabilities, as we see in that clip above) or holding any specific ground, and simply engaging in a series of shoot-and-scoots with their fire teams or single tanks. So it's like punching water... what does Ivan outflank, and what does he shell? 3. And as the BTG loses vehicles and men, it fairly quickly becomes unable to fight in the way it is supposed to even if the enemy were obliging enough to play along. EDIT to add: Is it possible this formation is too 'infanty poor' for the mission it is being asked to accomplish? hence the overreliance on suppressive fires from the vehicles....

That's simple enough to mod up out of a suitable unarmed vehicle not otherwise in the TOE, for those with the wireframing skills (and the time lol). You then assign it as a Destroy (Abandoned/Immobile) or Touch (wreck, capture) objective. The effect would be visual only though, so it will only have the cover profile and protection of the underlying AFV. (Phew, an actual CM-related post!)

Yeah, that has struck me too; they all look like those Groupes Mobiles massacres from Indochina. Wrecks lined up. They don't leave the road/kill sack (for fear of bogging?) to flank and fix, the very way RA mech has been trained since what, 1943? No dismounts, no tank riders, nada. They just seem to sit there, trying to regain fire superiority with their big guns. While the enemy either keeps killing and killing, or simply melts away to set up the next kill sack. Which btw may well support Arab-Israeli level loss ratios of 14:1.....

And what's more, those understrength 'fingers' are getting bushwhacked and broken before they can even call in the UA locations to the guns. Still less 'fix' the enemy, who aren't on board with sitting around to be pulverized.

Great points here. @The_Capt is probably busy in his day job, but @Bil Hardenberger, any thoughts on this 'lack of scale' problem? where a depleted BTG or a company TG just doesn't have enough left to fulfil the concept, which I understand to be very roughly to be both the 'fingers' and the 'fist: My tank splits the universe in two, and breaks up in pieces all that stands solid in front. The coppices fly by right and left. There are sounds of thunder inside my tank, hellish. The map is on my knees, and much becomes clear. The division has been thrown into a breakthrough and is now advancing rapidly to the West. Only the enemy's location is not clear. The map does not tell anything about it. For that reason, two dozen units are now dashing ahead of the division, mine among them. These companies are like the spread fingers of a hand. Their task is to discover the most vulnerable spot in the enemy defenses, upon which the division commander will bring down his thousand-ton fist. The weak spot of the enemy must be sought across vast spaces, and therefore each of the forward units operates completely alone. - Suvorov, The Aquarium “These exercises are carried out in military formations to coordinate all types of units into a single “fist”. It is believed that artillery is the god of war, but without high-quality reconnaissance and fire cover, it can do little, ”explained Major Sergei Tikhonov, commander of the howitzer division. (https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/army-btg.htm)

(h/t Edward Tufte)

Old агитпроп is still best агитпроп! Forward Soviet! Death to Moose and Squirrel!

This! "Our assessment is that they won’t want to spend too much refitting and resupplying because they have made a very public show of saying that they’re going to prioritize their efforts on the Donbas region" There has not yet been a tangible increase in Russian forces in the Donbas region, senior defense official says. Sun Tzu, again... IV.1. The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy. IV.2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. IV.7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. .... V.19. Thus one who is skillful at keeping the enemy on the move maintains deceitful appearances, according to which the enemy will act. He sacrifices something, that the enemy may snatch at it. V.20. By holding out baits, he keeps him on the march; then with a body of picked men he lies in wait for him.

Hannah Arendt to the white courtesy phone. Leave that red one alone though.... So, they're going to bore the enemy to death with Zoom meetings and fleshy, pallid bureaucrats tidying up conference rooms. You're on mute, comrade.

I am an offender here, but I agree. Although I doubt that's going to change much. Just keep scrolling.....

Worthy thread here, on the Kherson front: The repetition of the RuAF experience at Chornobaivka AB will eventually cause a similar Melitopol AB bug out. The big game the Aerorozvidka are waiting for are the RuAF mechanics, tool & spare parts in the trucks leaving the Melitopol AB. With those gone the RuAF loses the ability to generate enough air interdiction sorties in the South to stop a AFU general offensive by it's mobile mechanized brigades crossing the Dnieper. This will force Russian ground forces out of their fortified positions to deal with the Ukrainian mobile formations Then the real trap will be spring. You see, the real Ukrainian killing force isn't their mobile brigades. It is the light infantry ATGM & Drone supported mortar teams who are listening to compromised Russian radios. If the Ukrainians play their cards right this is the recipe for a Russian Army general collapse & rout to Crimea. The reason I'm laying this out ahead of time is due to the fact the Russians are helpless to stop it. The only counter to light infantry the way the Ukrainians are using it is more Russian air mobile light infantry in helicopters. The Russian name for that is the VDV. Which was p--sed away trying to take Kyiv

April unfolding.... 1. Those gunships gonna make big trouble out on the open steppes. More MANPADS! 2. Reach out and touch someone.... 3. Count 'em! Battle of Britain numbers here. 4. Yup

The horseshoe theory. While I'm a long way from Left, I have lurked on NakedCapitalism.com for years, a bastion of the 'old Left' (Sanderistas) that often aired some interesting ideas. I've actually met the founder, a brilliant charming lady. But I have had to stop reading lately, sickened by the delusions on there. Since they take it as read that the US is the Evil Empire and the root of everything bad that has happened in the world since 1776, they've joined ZeroHedge in the sewage tank cheering for Mother Russia and Grand Master P. So it seems all our friends in Ukraine are nazis, Bucha is a fake, etc. Sickening/saddening.

For those interested, some trenchant comments on the 'end of the tank?' copy-pasted above from @JasonC over at BGG.

Military tactics isn't Kamil's strongest subject, but his latest thread has an interesting take on this I hadn't heard... Same thread: Russian commentators starting to realize just how terribly their army is performing.... Not just Shoygu, look at the other senior general's 'tells' as he pauses. He knows it's rubbish. And minister sadsack looks like he stepped out of the 'Death of Stalin' black comedy film (recommended btw). Some old Chinese guy you may have heard of: II.2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength. II.3. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. II.4. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue. II.5. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays.... III.3. Thus the highest form of generalship is to balk the enemy's plans; the next best is to prevent the junction of the enemy's forces; the next in order is to attack the enemy's army in the field; and the worst policy of all is to besiege walled cities.... III.12. There are three ways in which a ruler can bring misfortune upon his army:-- III.13. (1) By commanding the army to advance or to retreat, being ignorant of the fact that it cannot obey. This is called hobbling the army III14. (2) By attempting to govern an army in the same way as he administers a kingdom, being ignorant of the conditions which obtain in an army. This causes restlessness in the soldier's minds. III.15. (3) By employing the officers of his army without discrimination, through ignorance of the military principle of adaptation to circumstances. This shakes the confidence of the soldiers.

Nice find. The RU forces - of various types - have suffered losses beyond comprehension. Some estimates have said 10-15%...I'd put it closer to 30-50% of the front line combat units. This isn't a computer game, or stratego...those forces do not just leave one area to fight in another.8/ As an old tank Division Commander, those figures are unfathomable to me. Which brings me to RECONSTITUTION, a doctrinal term describing REORGANIZATION of units (into other units, or combining depleted units together) with REGENERATION of capabilities (due to loss of leadership, men, equipment, supplies). It's hard, sometimes impossible. 10/ To reconstitute, you need to consider: 1. State of chain of command (leadership) 2. Personnel losses 3. Equipment readiness to reenter the fight 4. Supplies on hand to support the equipment & men 5. Training needs to overcome first fight failures RU gets an F in al l. 12/ You can't throw units like these back into the fight and expect different results.....

If given the opportunity.... I am thinking that Rus longship has sailed, excepting despoilment of the unfortunate (heavily Russian speaking) swathe running Kherson to Izium. Operationally, I am wondering whether the UA "Eighth Route Army" forces can manage to shift and execute a double 'backhand blow' while the rasputitza remains? 1. Relentless annihilation of Russian forces (VDV) north of the Dniepr, in parallel with liberation (or perhaps isolation) of Kherson and environs, putting the Crimea land bridge to Melitopol under artillery fire. 2. Envelop and defeat Russian forces in the forming salient around Izium. They will have dug in by now (been looking for imagery to confirm) and doctrinally are still very much tied to their supply hog AFVs (read bunkers / zinc coffins / graves for seven brothers). Grab the good ground (in these times, that actually means ground the *enemy* values, not you necessarily), then let those battered RA 'reinforcements' from the north feed themselves futilely into the wood chipper as they frantically try to reinforce beleaguered hedgehogs and clear their LOCs. Compel them to keep attacking while they are still off balance and terrible at it, that's the point! Risky? Bloody? Hell yes, of course, RAF air power is no joke. But taking no risks means accepting the loss of the southern oblasts, spun as another 'genius Putin win'. And a rematch later once the RA has had a chance to reorg and refit.... P.S. Could Izium be the 'Ukrainian Stalingrad?' After a month, the UA still firmly holds the battered south bank.... FWIW (30 March): https://theglobalherald.com/news/ukraine-war-ukrainian-troops-in-izium-confident-of-victory/

Ha! that's our 'tree of CM victory is watered with the blood of Pixeltruppen' @c3k we all know and love! Small quibble: it's actually 7.5% of total, so cut everything by a quarter, but yeah, they could also call up some older reservists and women too.... As you know well, and others have touched on, drafting, training and deploying (I leave aside equipping) those theoretical 4-5 million souls, a good proportion of whom barely speak Russian, in finite time (even to World War 1 "Pals battalion" standards) is far from a straightforward exercise. But I will leave further commentary to those with 'egg on their hats.' In contrast, Ukraine has a population of c40 million, (ex refugees)... c.20m males x 10% / 3 = 2/3 of a million, more or less? Plus older folks able to serve in TA militias, logistics etc. But based on visual evidence alone, vastly better fighting material on average to fight a modern war. Not to mention @The_Capt's factor of 'will', which often (not always) trumps numbers, at least in a 'short' war.

If it's man portable and can reach out and touch Ivan, send it along! Separ militias still scraping the bottom of the kit barrel. While Mother Russia scrapes its manpower barrel. And a lot of those military aged men are not Slavs....

UA troops describe the battles near Kiev. RAF air strikes are what they fear most. Good sampling of the terrain around Izium. Ivan is still mainly roadbound, looks like. Modder shot, for future refence..... Riverine forces! (paging @Sgt.Squarehead)

Yup, and the Russian Army culture where sergeants are selected (as in nearly all non-Western armies btw) for their ability to bully the ranks and act as toadies/bagmen for the officer capos. The Phd tweetstorm Steve posted a few above seems to nail it. When you have both an unrestricted mandate and obligation to obey orders without question, BUT you are also treated like the scum of the earth day to day by everyone above and around you, it leads directly to what we're seeing here. No warmed over Austro-Hungarian phrenology spittle about Mongoloid forest primitives is required. There are no evil races, only evil cultures. Or more accurately, cultures broken either by privation or to serve the designs of evil men. (Or the pure convenience of careless or self-deluded ones, which amounts to much the same thing).