LongLeftFlank

Great, so mighty USSR rocket genius now being competitive capitalist overlord Musk or Bezos?

Well, you got some back reading to do, mate!

Meanwhile, in the strange parallel bearded Spock universe that is allowed to continue existing [within bounds] on Pat Lang's blog.... https://turcopolier.com/the-cauldron-ttg/#comment-201674 (In other news, I hear Heinrici -- or was it Wenck? -- will very shortly smash the Bolsheviks and relieve Berlin. It will be any day now, mein Fuhrer!) ...But such rubbish is still interesting -- and disturbing -- to read, because so long as this looking glass world prevails in Russia (with Russians utterly disinclined to hear anything different), we can look for no upheaval, at least not from the bottom up. ...I suspect the Moskva disaster will naturally be interpreted by such people as the work of sinister Western aggressors, as the Ukrainians cannot POSSIBLY be admitted to be capable of such things.

Yup, noticing sleek Russian tech kids starting to show up in cafes here in Manila (offshoring and online gambling hub). I haven't been over to Vietnam yet this year, but interested in what I'll find there.

You take your pleasures rather sadly, brother, do you not? ....That said, this is a splendid and low-cost victory for the Ukrainian Republic. Far more important than the military victory IMHO, it is a mortal symbolic blow to Russia's self-delusion. The grieving mothers should of course look to Putin, to Russia's leadership, and to the broken civilization they have now burnt to the waterline. The resource curse which lets brutish village thugs rake in billions while the young people vote with their feet or drink themselves insensible. Go, Putin! Leave. There is nothing for you, no victory to salvage, no dignity, no revenge. March out. Walk out. Crawl! But, in the name of God, go! No one will invade you. Nobody cares. Then, put a pistol to your head, and leave salvaging the wreck of your country to a committee of smaller, more cautious people. Out! Out!

"Quand l'ennemi fait un faux mouvement , il faut se garder de l'interrompre."

“How did you go bankrupt?" "Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” ― Hemingway It would be some consolation for the feebleness of ourselves and our works if all things should perish as slowly as they come into being; but as it is, increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid. -- Seneca 1. Old friend, you keep defaulting to hoary generalities about Russia and the Russians that simply don't hold true any more. No more endless reserves of hardy rural manpower and trackless hinterland. Plus, it's the enemy which is defending its homes now, not them, an enemy who is now long used to fighting them and knows all their tricks. 2. Hitler was a huge gambler too and kept on winning big, right up until 1941 (Aug or Nov depending on whether you draw the line at Yelnya or the dismissal of Guderian) 3. India and China are shooting at each other in the Himalayas right now, so I don't even know where to get started on this red herring. China already buys whatever resources they like from Siberia; eliminating the competition merely gets them a cheaper price. This is NOT good for Russia compared to the status quo ante. [EDIT]Take it from a longtime expat whose living depends on knowing such things: China hasn't been in the business of shoveling money or stuff to buy popularity abroad since late 2017 at the latest. It's all cash and carry now, in the grasping Chinese manner which would make a Scotsman blush. Cash or the equivalent in resources.... So don't look for a flood of Chinese knockoff killer drones or hypersonic robot dogs or wev to turn the tables for Mother Russia and usher in the Pax Sinitica. Anyway, they know to save any good stuff -- inasmuch as they are able to make such things because they still can't make a 12nm microchip -- for themselves.

Out of 'Likes' already, sorry, but great to see the CM tactical hive mind at work here. So much more interesting IMHO than endless round-the-mulberry-bush ruminating on Will They? / Won't They? / They Must! NATO intervention, or Putin's favourite freeking colour today....

Agreed. With the caveat that the Russian kids who end up in the poor bloody infantry are likely the very bottom of the barrel, too dumb to be trainable even as BTR crewmen! [NOTE: I probably just insulted everyone on this board with a Combat Infantry badge lol. In actual infantry combat, these 'dumb' kids would utterly murder my overeducated arse. I knew it, which is why I never enlisted.] The RA ranks seem to be heavily country lads and non-Slavs who -- as hard as it may be to believe for us parents of teens, lol! -- don't grow up glued to screens since many grew up in clapboard shacks in the nonwired hinterlands. ....Ergo, how well are these grunts gonna be able to operate (and maintain) drones? (out in the fields, far from their bases) [EDIT: it is possible to overstate this of course; it would be a very rare bumpkin who had gone to school without at least seeing a screen or two. But I'd guess your average Ukie infantryman has a good bit more Stugna-savvy in him / her than your average Ivan (or Mahmud)....] Again, Galeev. Sorry to overquote him, but he gets to the point. And has great visuals:

I don't know. It's different dimensionally, sure, but it's still a very primal matter of sending your hunters out into the bush to find their hunters and either repelling/killing them, or calling in support fires that do so. Laying ambushes and mines, sniping, those are all deadly games two sides can play. And ranged anti-infantry squad firepower has also increased a fair bit beyond the LMGs and 60mm of yore. Not just talking about crazy expensive missiles either. Haven't pulled out CMSF in a while, but I believe that proves out.

Yup, and if you're a peacetime commander starved for resources and talent, you can at least check some 'readiness' boxes and earn your next promo. On the happy assumption that should the 'balloon go up' you'll be able to fill out the force, with veteran cadre showing the newcomers the ropes. Eventually....

Purely FWIW, Viktor Suvorov's memoir "Aquarium" describes the late 1960s Red Army battalion structure as follows: To an outsider, all companies in a Soviet division or regiment look exactly the same. 1. But no! In each battalion, the first company is indeed the first. Whatever good soldiers may be in the battalion, and all the best kit, the battalion commander collects in the first company. And if there is a shortage of officers, then a fresh replacement is sure to be given to the first company. Because the first company always attacks on the main axis of the battalion. It is the first to attack the enemy head to head. And on that first move depends the outcome of the battle. 2. The second company in any battalion is mediocre. The officers in the second company are without any special distinction, like me, and the soldiers too. But every second company has additional intelligence training. It's kind of like a secondary profession. First of all, it is still a combat company, but if necessary, it can conduct reconnaissance on behalf of its battalion, and perhaps serve the needs of the regiment too, replacing or supplementing the special reconnaissance unit. 3. In the Soviet Army there are 2,400 motorized rifle battalions. And in each of them the third company, is not only third in number. Third companies get those who did not get into the first or second companies: very young, inexperienced officers, or overaged and hopeless ones. The manpower in the third companies is not always sufficient. Moreover, in the home territory of the Soviet Union, the third companies are without the overwhelming majority of their soldiers. Their combat equipment is kept in mothballs. If war breaks out, thousands of these companies will be supplemented by reservists and then quickly raised to the level of conventional combat units. In this system there is a profound logic: adding reservists to an existing division is a thousand times better than forming new divisions entirely from reservists. ....So for all that 'combined arms' happy talk, the essence of the BTG concept may in fact be a very old expedient of cannibalizing all the available talent and kit out of understrength parent regiments in order to stand up a "First Battalion" that is (theoretically) equipped to conduct 21st century warfare. But perhaps with the exception of a few Praetorian formations, there isn't enough to fit out 2 such kampfgruppen. Once the BTG is savaged, that could be pretty much it for the entire regiment's striking power. Everyone else is a second rater or newb who didn't make the travel team.... Just a theory here, don't know how it tracks with observed events. P.S. I found a Russian cover of Знают Все, although it's mediocre: the singer is more Rammstein than Leonard C, and the backup is canned twangy country not balalaikas. There's definitely a gap to fill out there.

Cheers, Steve, as this is your shop I generally assume you don't need to be asked to weigh in. But I have no special claim on @The_Capt either of course, or any of the other experts. Like me, you all have day jobs. *Very* interesting points on the countless fissures and factions within the Russian army itself! And, much as I hate echoing the @kraze 'Orcs' one note bugle, it's as though the gangsterism Galeev discusses has infected all of Russian society, save perhaps for a few Westernized technorati. Hobbesian war of all against all (with only the holy Tsar rising above it all. Until he doesn't). Endless self pity, reflexive distrust of motives, prickly resentment of anyone who might have anything you don't, etc. Can't find a dark Russian nightclub Vysotsky type cover of Leonard Cohen, but it's gotta be out there....

Hmm, I'm a little surprised that this was your only take (or maybe it was just on O'Brien's tweet). Or did I miss a different point? Because the Dupuy summary seemed to this layman to be pretty on the nose and tracking to prior anecdata.... (1) BTGs are simply battalion-sized, task organized combined arms teams. All major armies have done this since WWII.... (3) Russian Army BTGs and doctrine are built around firepower and mobility, at the expense of manpower... (6) The Russian BTGs appear unable to execute competent combined arms tactics.... (7) This shows up big in the lack of effective infantry support. BTG infantry cannot prevent Ukrainian mechanized and light infantry anti-tank hunter/killer teams from attriting their AFV, IFV, and SP artillery. This is the primary job of infantry in tank units. (8) It is not clear if this is due to ineffective infantry forces or insufficient numbers of them in the BTGs; probably both are true.... (10) The leanness of the BTG manning (~ 1,000 troops) means that they cannot sustain much attrition without suffering a marked decline in combat power and effectiveness. (11) It will take a thorough analysis to determine if the performance of the BTGs is due to inherent flaws in Russian Army personnel and training or flaws in their doctrinal approach. Again, both are probably culpable. (12) In any case, these problems are not likely to be remedied in the short term. Fixing them will take a major reform effort. TL:DR, by design the BTGs don't have enough organic infantry (whether demographic reasons or 'cuz Russians suck' -- poor motivation, bad sergeants, nil situation awareness, hiding behind their armour) to do the jobs they need to do, or perhaps any other for that matter. While the Ukrainians have, by luck or by design, created antifragile tactical forces that can neither be readily attrited by ranged artillery/air nor found and fixed by the land units (BTGs) themselves. And also seem to possess on average a degree of initiative and self suffiency reminiscent of Finnish ski troops or Ranger forces, and not readily subject to disruption up their own command or LOC chain.... What am I missing? (in your own good time, cheers, thanks for the many insights to date)

Spetsnaz units have reportedly refused to fight. While I am not saying that now is the time, 'intervention' can take many forms. With Putin crossing a line that 'even Hitler' did not dare cross, the US must now shield innocent civilians in key population centers from barbaric use of WMD. All entirely defensive and humanitarian, of course.... That ^ line on the map is 100 miles. That's roughly the antiaircraft range of a Patriot battery. (Antimissile range is shorter). Draw circles with that radius around Lviv, Kyiv, Vinnitsa, Odessa, Dnipro and, say, Poltava (west of Kharkiv -- don't want to go right up to the frontier, not yet). Units would bring their own security, including advanced EW capabilities. Probably their own defensive air cover too, based in Poland. Voila, you've got your no fly zone. Have a nice day RuAF. Enjoy crapping your pants each time you take off.

I've been fairly prolific these last few pages, so I am going back into listen mode for a bit. But please note I am only paraphrasing @JasonC and make no claim that I have portrayed his views accurately. He doesn't come here any more, so we should probably just speak for ourselves.

Great, so now I not only draw out a newbie troll, but his self-appointed rapid response force drives straight into the blast too. Soooo predictable. .... And I believe this is now the second time you've gotten stuck to my particular flypaper. I've posted about a dozen times in the last 5 hours, mainly, ahem *straight* on topic. Yet THIS was the only item you could summon the umm mental *energy* to respond to???? [/I'll cut the countertrolling off now, but believe me the next one will be worth the holiday]

Very well put! But the entire strategic point is to *force* a premature Russian response, by striking to the very borders of his homeland (maybe beyond, but just raiding at this point)! At a time and in terrain which is Good Fer Yer Arse, and bad for his.... As for the lack of UA armour, isn't 125mm vs 125mm really playing Ivan's game not your own? The RuAF still retains air superiority and active drones (although using more of them up saps their strength for the next move in the south), so RT footage of burning UA tank columns contributes little to the greater good here. Better to let your hardened, bloody minded rocket infantry lead the way, and let the limited mech forces help with the mop ups of cut off and shattered Russian pockets. Just my layman's opinions, you understand. I have no better or worse gauge of the outcomes than any other wargaming geek. But hopefully the UA command has been thinking through these kinds of tradeoffs.

Yes, fully accepted, but what comfort or guidance does that adjustment really give the Ukrainians? ...A higher, more strident class of pearl clutching? Angrier letters to the Times? Look, I absolutely hope the entire Western SpecOps beehive has left the Syrians and Malians and @whoeverthehellelsewasstupidenoughtobelieveourattentionspanwaslongerthan5minutes and is now busy on the ground in Poland, Romania and West Ukraine, preparing the Mother of All Tech Technology Sea-Air-Land Embargo Mindf**cks for the RuAF whenever they finally get around to their next wave. That would be like ULTRA (with exploding typewriters): icing on the cake of victory. It helped, but frankly the Allies would have won without it, and as we know from memoirs, generally prosecuted the war accordingly. But you can't bet the farm and the overworked tractor on that.... To quote Air Marshal Dowding, from the Greatest Memo Ever Written: I hope and believe that our armies may yet be victorious in France and Belgium, but we have to face the possibility that they may be defeated..... [Still gives me chills, when Olivier recites it. Yeah, I'm an odd bird]

From the Twitter comments: I don’t believe for a second that he can even read a map. It could be Narnia on there just to give him something to look at.

African or European?

I'm assuming [/sarc] here. ...As I warned a couple of pages ago, our dear Ukrainian brothers must assume they are on their own, ultimately, to determine their fate, and their children's, with the expenditure of their own precious blood. And the time to shape it is *now*, not later. However some of us may wish it were otherwise. I give @kraze a hard time (tbh I'd be more comfortable if he admitted just once that ethnic Russians who speak Russian are also good, loyal Ukrainians, because knowing that is the only way out of the hell the various neighbouring empires have built for them in their rich land). But he and @Aragorn2002 are quite right in this: we Westerners have grown soft and out of touch in the nest our sterner, harder forefathers have feathered since Vasco da Gama broke the Islamic monopoly on Oriental trade, giving 'the West' first call on the resources of an entire planet. So today, we are, indeed, not Agreement Capable -- or at least, not agreement reliable --- as a civilization. But it is not within the control of anyone here to change that reality. That burden now falls on our brothers who shield our right flank, but their own homes and families first of all. [/florid prose]

Fiery, the angels fell. Deep thunder rolled about their shores, burning with the fires of Auk!

OK, I actually believe this, as an actual Russian troll would have known to take his business elsewhere by now. So, are you named after the war hero, the vehicle or the male p*rn star? [btw, I can keep this going until it all vanishes in one giant modded mist. You should hear me when Nigerian scammers have the misfortune to reach me.]