LongLeftFlank

I'll sidestep your second two points, as it's yet more Fortress America court politics and not useful here IMHO. It's also what makes most other English language boards on this topic unreadable, frankly. Drain The Swamp! ...On your first point, if you consult a map, they're pretty much at those rivers already. Which is why, on Steve's earlier meme of 'diminishing expectations', my theory is that the Russians may be looking to round out those natural barriers, declare "the job's a good 'un" on 9 May and send someone to Geneva, or New Delhi or wherever to Negotiate with the aforementioned big brains [pick yer poison]..... [PS I'm going to shut up for a bit. I don't like bogarting the thread]

Yes, exactly.

Well with 700 pages it's hard to keep track, but I've opined several times already that the key front is east of Zaporizhne, the hardest for the Russians to reinforce (unless you're foolish enough to give them time to do it). Others might say that Kharkiv is the key.

Crap, shut this down right now FFS! I'm sorry, I will never use the word Liberals again.....

No, you're quite right to correct: I didn't mean 'liberals' in the American political sense (i.e. Democratic party). And I really don't want to go down that American political rathole. Most of us outside the US don't give a rats about a thing Fox or MSNBC has to say. ...As I edited to add, Luttwak is no liberal, but all those Big Brained Pragmatic Strategic types would also readily rationalise an easy way out.

I'm a big Kamil fan, as you know, but just contrast this to the nationalist fantasy world Strelkov lives in! ....mobilise the gigantic Russian nation, gather the Russian land, 'hang' anyone there who doesn't accept their Russianness, blah blah. And resettle that 'Russian land' with... whom exactly?

Yes, I think we're both on the same page that the Russians are 1. trying to 'secure' a new frontier along the Seviersky Donets and southern Dnipr and then 2. make enough crazy nuke noises that Western liberals poop their pants and pressure UKR to accept a cease fire and 'referendum'. Here's Ed Lutttwak (no liberal!), calling for 'plebiscites': https://unherd.com/2022/04/how-the-ukraine-war-must-end/ ...And fine, all that certainly doesn't suit our Ukrainian friends here at all, but while sending you lots of lethal stuff is one thing, I must tell you there is very little stomach in the West for joining you in the 'our survival is on the line' category. Very few of my acquaintances pay the war much mind even though they know who the 'good guys' are. So the pressure to accept a cease fire and 'end this' (i.e. get it out of the news and get back to doomscrolling about the slow rot of our various welfare states) will be substantial. Also, a lot of the world (Asia, MEA) sees Ukraine as a US proxy, a stick the Empire is using to beat Russia. They would firmly back a cease fire, having no interest in a prostrate Russia. This is why I continue to believe that time is NOT on Ukraine's side strategically, the way others here believe, and that a strong, early counteroffensive toward the Azov to retake the land bridge and place half the Russian invaders en prise is imperative, in spite of the military risks. Izyum area is not a dagger pointed at the heart of Ukraine, but that long Kherson-Zaporizhe-Donetsk front *definitely* is. You simply cannot leave that in place, but you can't retake it without firm Western backing, intel, etc. And the tide of that backing will ebb astoundingly fast once the Russians call for 'cease fire and negotiations'. Nobody trusts them, fine, but believe me, the West will always go for the 'negotiated' way out and let the Ukrainians live with the consequences. Ask the Koreans. One man's opinion, and I guess time will tell.

Video a week old but shows terrain....

Lyman is under direct attack now. This is the 'outer crust' of the Sloviansk perimeter. Looks like Russians have finally figured out how to advance infantry through woods (i.e. not tied to vehicles). But if the arrows on this map are correct, the silly buggers have also actually struck toward Kryva Luka. Coming soon to a drone video near you.... This video (second tweet -- I hate the ISW maps as they don't show terrain) shows the battlescape. 1980 map, but shows the key features quite clearly:

Another riveting 2 minute battlefield drama: death of a tank (supposedly UA) and the palpable shock and panic of its crew....

'Dan' has your 6 (second tweet) I hope @Battlefront.com doesn't mind me leaking a Level 5 screenshot of the CM Engine 3 here.... Ivan just doesn't *do* tactical dispersion, do he?

Heavy fighting around Oskil, with RU side sources claiming 1000 UA troops 'trapped' against the Donets river. However, it appears the 81 Brigade withdrew. Oh, and note: Sviatohyrsk, and that forested hill I keep rabbiting on about.... The brigade walked 12 kilometres (7.5 miles) Saturday, camouflaged in the woods and under crossfire, until their point of retreat at Sviatoguirsk. For a month, the 81st -- whose motto is "always first" -- battled to push back the Russian advance in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region where Moscow's troops move forward slowly, taking villages one by one... At the start of the war, they spent a month defending Izium, which fell on April 1, before joining the fighting around the village of Oleksandrivka. "Everyone understands that we must guard the line here, we cannot let the enemy move closer, we try to hold it with all our force," says lieutenant Yevgen Samoylov, anxious that the unit could be hit by Russian fire at any point. "As you can hear, the enemy is very, very near," he says, pointing to the sky. The line of Russian tanks is on the other side of a hill, around seven kilometres (4.3 miles) away. At 21 years old, Samoylov, an officer from the Odessa military academy, finds himself managing 130 conscripts, often twice his age. When the convoy passes a truck loaded with long-range missiles dashing to the front, the soldiers automatically make a "V" sign for victory with their fingers before fixing their gaze once more on their feet or the horizon in silence. Soldiers cannot use their phones on the front, and any application that requires geolocation is banned. Oh, and 5 days after entering it, the RA finally secures Yampil (SE of Lyman). For all the good it seems it will do them.... I don't know this guy's sources very well yet, so... bread and salt.

This is now a few days stale and tells us what we here already know, but fwiw... https://turcopolier.com/igor-ivanovich-strelkov-ttg/ The general conclusion in unfortunately not joyful – the expected (by the enemy) offensive of the Russian group to encircle the Donetsk group of Ukrainian armed forces met fierce resistance and will most likely not lead to a complete encirclement and destruction of the enemy group (unless 2-3 tank corps “fall from the sky” to urgently break through the frontline and link up deep in the UAF rears). The “Cannae” certainly did’t happen.

Forêt de Grémecey, Lorraine, 30 Sep 1944 The officers had just gathered in the building which housed the command post when shellfire struck in the yard where the aides and orderlies were waiting. Several in the yard were killed or wounded, including some who had been with [XII Corps Commander] General Eddy since his days in North Africa. The officers in the building gave what help they could, then returned to a consideration of the problem at hand... What now passed between General Eddy and others in the command post is not clear. Eddy polled each of the [35th ID] regimental commanders present; they seemed to have agreed that further German infiltration could not be halted.... [Patton] found that Eddy had ordered two regiments... to withdraw. [He drove posthaste to the 6th Armored Division HQ] and told all three generals, Eddy, Baade and Grow, that "I was disgusted with them." He wanted the 6th to counterattack in the morning.... He also ordered the generals involved to lead their troops personally "to make up for their shortcomings." Baade was to go to the front. Grow was to retake the woods or "not come back." "After I got through cussing them ouut, I told them the same thing I told Truscott in Sicily, namely, 'now I will go home as I know you will win.' I feel they will. If I stayed, it would show lack of confidence."

Wow, there are folks out there still seriously worried about 'encirclement' (and based on the replies, others hoping it's gonna happen, annnny dayyy nowwww)....

Well don't feel sad (no don't feeeel saaad) because none outta three ain't bad.... -- Meat Loaf (RIP)

Oi will cross this body of water if you promise me you won't troi this at'ome! -- Billy Bragg Per your prior, there's no question now that this area is marginal to useless as a bridgehead for future offensive ops against Sloviansk. But if the game at this point is to fill out a defensible 'stop line' roughly paralleling the river, this push might still make sense....

Fair enough, I shall defer to the pros! One of my many unfinished projects is CMBN Le Carillon/La Meauffe. The Carillon 'heights' were a mere 70m, yet they and the German spotters they shielded were able to hold the right bank of the Vire and slow walk/burn out two successive US regiments in the bocage for pretty much a full month (16 Jun - 15 Jul 1944). So, I'm doubtless pushing an analogy too far.

cheers mate, the twitter feed you repied to was talking about 'squares' and the only squares I could see were up in the NW quadrant. I was like, who would bother assaulting (or defending) that? It's behind RU lines at this point. I've stepped away from this for a few hours, but I remain interested in Sviatohyrsk and the hill (and caves) between it and Alexandrivka. More as a bastion/overlook than a crossing point (the existing bridge isn't for vehicles (?) and the banks seem too steep for a pontoon. ... I was wondering whether the VDV troops were going to try to assault it (shades of bloody Monte Cassino) before their HQ got smeared all over the oblast. **** EDIT: Looking ahead, regardless of what Bruno Ganz may be doing in the Kremlin right now, if I'm the Russian army commander and 1. accepting that the Giant Encirclement isn't gonna happen, at this point I am going to 2. focus my (dwindling) remaining offensive potential on securing a stop line that includes natural defensible features (like the river and this here hill!), so.... 3. I can hold on to the Izium 'bulge', which itself presents a continuous threat to the Ukrainian held area of the Donbass. 4. On the happy if desperate assumption that I can hold on to it through a cease fire, lick my wounds and try for a rematch sometime later, or at least bargain it away later because it's too costly to take back. Real World War 1 thinking here, but otoh that defensive line concept worked for the Ukes from 2014 - pressent. Hypothesis

Useful.

This looks awesome, but could someone possibly clue me in as to where on the originally referenced map (tweet) this is? Is this likely to be a contested crossing? If it's those squares, why would the RA do a river assault instead of attacking from the other direction? Many thanks!

On the axis of the eastern attack (Kreminna-Lyman-Sloviansk), it was reported previously that the RA struck south last week and grabbed (most of?) Yampil. But consensus was that it looks very much like a (literally!) dead end for them, between the woods (Dibrova) and the river. As you say, they might try a wider hook to cross the river and get right round (south end of this map), but.....

I remember a quote from a few decades ago where a Japanese minister archly responded, "hmm yes, it might take us that long." [6 months] So totally Japanese lol.

And barring an utterly craven Western response, use of a nuke would bring China and the entire 'fence sitting' world urgently into the 'shut this maniac down, right now!' camp. There is absolutely no 'win' for China in a nuclear war, whether or not it is a target (at once). Among other consequences, I predict Japan would kit out a Trident fleet within 6 months to warn off both Xi and L'il Kim.

Good post here, many thanks. Although beating them to a standstill isn't enough, to my mind. At least part of the Russian army needs to be destroyed outright, not just attrited or driven back. Some other folks have observed that the Ukrainian front east of Zaporizhne (not shielded by Dnipr) to the 'fortified' eastern bulge is a weak point for them. I'd argue the reverse (and have previously). Unlike Kharkiv or Izyum, which adjoin the Russian heartland, that 'land bridge' above Maripol is a major pain in the arse for Russia to reinforce and supply (without bleeding off troops from Mariupol or Kherson), still less sustain an offensive. Road/rail infra west from Donbas is a shambles, there's only one road out of Crimea and so you need to ship it across the Azov Sea and then unload/reload onto trucks. Yes, doable but hard without proper facilities (single points of vulnerability....) While the UA forces in line today can't conduct an offensive, once the rest of the front stabilises, it is a comparatively simple matter to shift UA mechanised forces down there -- sure, they will see it, but road and rail infra is intact and very hard for RA air power to get at -- and strike hard for the Azov ports: a. destroying at least 2 battered RA divisions b. dividing the invaders c. imperiling the Russian Kherson armies (already split by the Dnipr), and Crimea itself (jewel in Putin's irredentist crown) d. relieving Mariupol (a massive symbolic victory, which would reverberate in Russia and make the military defeat impossible to deny or cover up). e. taking back what is, other than the Kharkiv environs, the most strategically and economically valuable portion of the lost territories. To my mind, there is just no way Ukraine can agree to a cease fire line that leaves Russians in the 'land bridge'. It presents a long vulnerable front for the inevitable next war. Perekop isthmus can be readily sealed off, even if Crimea can't be retaken.