LongLeftFlank

ACHTUNG/STÖJ! I don't want to be peddling misinformation on here, still less promoting a dolchstosslegende. It seems this guy is a legit UA general with a long record, but [fuzzy] got dismissed [for some kind of mouthing off?], ran against Zelenskyy in 2019 and then endorsed Poroshenko. So pass a lot of extra salt with that black bread.... And holy cats, he looks and sounds just like a figure out of the 19th century. I hear sinister hoofbeats just looking at him. Postwar Ukrainian politics is gonna be, umm colourful. Full (unfragmented) transcript from Dmitri: https://wartranslated.com/big-interview-with-ukrainian-general-serhii-kryvonos-updating/ Let's get this straight: the country's military-political leadership.... Did they oversleep, or did they pretend to oversleep the offensive? ....In January, some Americans of the extremely high level came, and right on the maps, they were telling us what would happen and how. But the political leadership said it was all lies, nonsense, and provocations. Why? Well, because the pro-Russian agents are probably in the president's office. There's no other way to justify this. To say that they didn't know. That's an outright lie. ...And generals of the Russian General Staff called their classmates, friends, and brothers who were serving here and warned that in 24 hours, Russia would attack. And the fact that the attack will come from the side of Belarus is one hundred percent. A year before the start of the war, I warned the country's leadership, and, in principle, I was fired for that. They did not want to hear what they did not want to hear.... And the Ukrainians, regardless of the country’s political leadership position, were instantly self-organized, having already had enough experience. And they started to burn Russian tanks wherever they could. Only afterward was it taken under the control of the military leadership and became more or less normally managed.... [25 Feb] I accidentally stopped at Zhylyansk airfield; we had to get ammunition there to go to another area. I saw many border guards, officers, and soldiers of the National Guard present. A few soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were present. When I asked, “what will we do? What were we waiting for?” – “We are waiting for the Kirov landing party.” – “What are we doing? – “We are not doing anything. We are waiting.“ – “Who is the man in charge?” – “No one in charge.” Understanding the importance of Zhulyany airport – It was the air gateway for the Russians, for the success of the takeover of Kyiv. ...They gathered, and I introduced myself, “I’m general Kryvonos. I am taking the command”. Then I set some tasks. I had some experience in defense and successful experience in defense of airfields. In 2014 during the 47 days, I defended in Kramatorsk.... There were cadets from the military institutions of the Shevchenko University. There was a small unit of the presidential regiment. Again, even just an honor guard company. You understand, these are just the guys who absolutely do not know how to fight. But here, we have to give credit to both the commander of this combined unit and these guys; they did everything right.... (I): There are less than 10 kilometers from the airport to the president’s office. (K): It is seven kilometers only in a straight line and within the city limits.... ....The question is, who gave the command to demine the bridges from Crimea? That is the question that worries everyone.... And who is the traitor the public has yet to hear? And it is very interesting because we don't have the information. There are no comments from top leadership. Accordingly, there is a certain distrust toward the leadership. [March] Russia’s mouth turned out to be too small for big Ukraine, so they decided to bite off Ukraine in pieces, not to swallow it whole....[but] Ukrainian armed forces had severe shell hunger from the end of March – early April. [Apr-Jun] Domination on the field of artillery duels resulted in our losses being far greater than the Russian losses. Because one might imagine war from the old movie, when people go up to the attack and go there in chains, they are shot by machine gunners. Unfortunately, in this war, it’s a bit different. There are considerably fewer shooting contacts than artillery fire. So, at the expense of the artillery advantage, the Russians suffered fewer losses than we did. And the fact that the counter-battery was not tight enough because there were simply no shells.... The first issue the Russians have always practiced in these exercises has always been the redeployment of troops. And we have to give credit for that: they have polished it perfectly. Even from the Far East, they quickly redeployed equipment and people; I say this as a military man.... An enemy has always been identified in the history of the Russian state, whether during the tsar’s time, during the Soviet Union, or now under Putin. So the enemy prevents Russia from living happily.... which has constantly distracted people from the problems in Russia: “the Englishwoman ruined things, the German ruined things, the Finns disturbed us, and someone else disturbed us.” They consider their people cattle, but they realize that cattle can get smarter. That’s why they need to make them go to war. And the war is usually fought by some of the most active segments of the population. So it’s better to let them die in the war, and there will be less. Then there will be more inside Russia. And all the rest will keep quiet, like, excuse me, enslaved people.

... wow, after that suitable-for-framing assessment, this looks pretty lame, but here it is anyway: Anecdata for the 'Scraping the barrel' files....

Welcome, Maciej, to the swelling ranks of CM's elite Polish brigade! I won't repeat my post above, but I'll venture to guess that UKR losses have NOT run 200 KIA per day for at least 6 weeks now, if indeed they ever did. And the Russians definitely aren't giving better than they get. ...I know this sounds awfully trite, but as you know of course, the only way to kill and maim enemy infantry in bulk day-by-day is to be spotting and shelling concentrations of them, preferably on the move and up front, in range of your mortars and direct fire ordnance (not just your heavy guns). And the main way to force them to concentrate that way is by concentrating your own forces. On the move and up front. Bite and hold / 'grab the belt', or by other methods (probes, infiltration). Which is costly. ...That's why almost by definition, an attacker generally loses a lot more than a defender, unless he can achieve a payoff in terms of a rout or encirclement. The latter appear to be fairly few in number since February, thanks to generally superior Ukrainian tactical mobility (not tied to AFVs), NCO initiative and situational awareness. Arithmetic on the Frontier, FWIW.....

As @sburke kindly observed, my thread participation has become scant in the past month due to work (sadly, I'm not an oil trader, although I do ok). Also, I note our esteemed new grognards in residence, @Grigb , @Beleg85 , @Hubaand others are finding better sources now than I could. Many thanks, guys! Ref. @chrisl 's post, it seems to me the UA reactions to Russia's blunt force saturation bombardments are the time tested ones: 1. where they have time, or the use of existing tunnel works, dig deep, with solid overhead cover and camou. That's the 'WW1 solution', used in nearly all positional warfare ever since explosive shells became available to armies in volume. Leave the dugouts only when the enemy is danger close. 2. otherwise, 'deepen' their fronts -- up to 10kms now? -- (a) avoiding putting too many defenders in one targetable spot, (b) maxing use of dummies and camou, (c) using schweige (silent) ambush positions, (d) mines in huge volumes, and (e) nimble shoot-and-scoot fire teams to retard Russian advances into this thinly manned zone prior to calling in their own guns. I believe the Russians are adopting similar (though not identical) dispersed tactics, which is why the UA in turn is having trouble attacking in mass/with mech (except in the wooded areas near Izyum or the densely settled areas around Kharkiv, where they can infiltrate at scale). => This urgent need to spread out seems to me to explain many of the UA withdrawals we've seen (and now, some of the Russian moves); being 'cauldroned' isn't just being cut off, it's about being forced to be too dense on the ground. Furthermore, forcing the attacker to make himself 'dense' in canalised terrain, bring up his direct fire vehicles, etc. and then blasting the hell out of him, can be well worth giving up some ground (temporarily or permanently). However, I also believe both sides are becoming skilled at leaving behind mines and sensors to make reoccupying vacated ground costly. .... (which is why I believe the next phase of this war -- retaking the lost lands -- is going to be less about drones and more about mines, which the Russians can still make in quantity) Villages or hedgehog strongpoints are less valuable tacticallly than previously, as the Russians just zero and level every structure. Conversely, woodlands or large urban or mining/industrial zones that mask movement but can't be leveled remain valuable, and very tough nuts to crack. Notice, these dynamics also make river crossing bridgeheads far more vulnerable for both sides (on top of the crossing risk itself), as there's less space in the kessel to spread out and avoid counterfires (e.g. Inhulets crossing). As most here know well, the Wehrmacht tried out a lot of the above 'zone' defence tactics in later WW2, although their artillery tended not to be equal to the task of area denial when the Red Army was determined to break in en masse. ....Anyway, that's the basics of it, I'm sure more knowledgeable folks here can elaborate and correct. P.S. Some of the same dynamics above are readily visible in my (unfinished) CMBN Le Carillon sequence, where successive US regiments kept 'clearing' the Germans out of Le Meauffe village, only to (re)discover it was a trap, a lethal mortar magnet. They'd withdraw leaving just an OP, and the German snipers and sappers would come in again, infiltrating from the bocage: lather-rinse-repeat for a full month. A lot of the Italian campaign was fought much the same way.

I would actually wear this one, although it should read: the 'birds' are in the pay of the bourgeoisie Honorable mention (as it implies you're armed as well as crazy, as opposed to hipster ironic)

1. Annual wind rose for Zaporizhzhia ....you’ve got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk? 2. Nice power plant you've got there, Kursk. Be a shame if sumfink happened to it.... 3. Of course, this sort of thing moves fairly quickly into WMD space. The list of human winners from nuclear war at any scale is fairly close to zero, and definitely does not include the leadership of China.

Linking to this interesting thread from late last year....

Bump, in light of discussion over in Ukraine gigathread. Also, some details on the planned PLA 'exercises' https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis/

Remind us please, what century do you live in?

Get up. Do your fkg job.

And at the risk of awakening the slumbering Old Ones from their Sunken non-Euclidean Thread Beneath The Waves....

Nasty bit of sophistry there.

Good elenchos these last few pages on the nature of demos vs. oligarchs vs. tyrants. I would foray into my Thucydides or Xenophon for some astringent comments from the Peloponnesian Wars had I more time.

Yes, the stupidest thing is that with the global commodities price windfall of 2006-2009, Russia was well positioned to diversify itself into a software and technology services hub, with millions of numerate people and solidifying ties to the EU. On that path, it might have moved to middle income status in the 2010s; the Germans and French would have happily played along. Instead, the mafiyas and siloviki looted the resource sector and legacy manufacturing and then Putin tried to put the Soviet Humpty Dumpty back together again by force, with the horrid results we see.

False analogy. DMS is a longtime member of this forum, respected for his contributions to our gaming community. I don't personally find his whataboutism useful in this instance, as there is no moral equivalency to the war in the disputed Donetsk territory at all -- I think @The_Capt has the right of it here, this is just a murderous and stupid tantrum -- but I still want to hear his POV, and the rebuttals.

Wow, anyone with the tiniest familiarity with Chinese knows this statement is utterly meaningless as a signal to intent.

Thanks. I have been gagging on his 'Russians = mongoloid orcs who take murder and rapine in with their mothers milk' line for the entire thread. ...That said, there's definitely something very disturbing about Russian 'high culture'. This Galeev thread gets into part of it. Curious what your take might be, at your convenience.... ...FWIW, I actually take away something a little hopeful, which is that there's a grumpy strain of individualism in Russians that could shrug off all the worn out Czar worship / Third Rome suprisingly quickly if given a chance. More here... Their crabs-in-the-bucket mentality (envy), sadly, might take them a while longer to get free of. But prosperity too, can create more generous hearts in time. Nobody is born that way. **** P.S. Speaking of Galeev, he's been prodding at German double-dealing for some time now.... And I can neither confirm nor deny that this *exactly* describes the dynamic in developing energy and infra projects in most emerging market countries lol.

1000 pages, woot! Not quite the conflagration we'd been banking on....

Nein nein nein!

Thank you. 1. As someone who has spent most of his adult life working in Asian emerging markets, watching some flourish and others flail, I would personally invest capital east of the Oder and north of the Danube. 2. As you note, 'Old Europe's' private sector is very much investing that way too, even more urgently today as it seeks alternative 'workshops' to an increasingly sharp dealing and high handed China. 3. All the human capital, knowhow, work ethic and other resources are in place to rapidly stand up Europe's new tech manufacturing hub. Over the next 25 years -- not overnight! as some here seem to have strangely misread my post -- that will entail a rebalancing of wealth and power eastward. However, it will likely take 2 generations before Ukrainians live as well on average as Frenchmen. Nonetheless, standards of living will improve noticeably. 4. Providing skilled labour to Greater Europe at competitive but rising cost for a time (a la ASEAN) is one thing. But if Bruxelles Eurocrats also demand they throw open their borders to (and compete with) millions of migrants from the Global South flocking into their cities, that will most definitely *not* be on. A middle class society and open borders simply aren't reconcilable, sorry. If there is going to be a substratum of low cost migrant workers, let them come in from Russia over time and take the new ethic home with them.

Well done sir! I would do much the same in your place. But let's dwell for a moment on 'your place.' As I noted a while ago, the productive heartland of Europe is about to move East. Poland plus Slovakia plus Ukraine plus Belarus creates a powerful pan-Slavic macroeconomic region of some 125 million living in spacious, climate-change-resistant river valleys with plentiful natural resources and well developed infrastructure. The one positive thing Communism left behind in Eastern Europe is excellent secondary polytechnic education, a byproduct of forced industrialisation. For all the old EU sneering about 'Polish plumbers', it's a backhand compliment to unfussy people who bring tangible, practical problem solving skills. Ukrainians seem cut from much the same cloth: tough, cheerful and adaptive! Not so different from how Americans used to think of themselves (and some still are). ... All this region needs to thrive is to get the boot of outside imperialist overlords off its neck, whether it's Austrians, Germans, Muscovites, post-Soviet mafiyas, or anyone else. In fact, break the legs inside those boots as needed to make that point! Ukrainians (and Poles) should keep rifles in their homes for a generation, with localities maintaining armouries of AT weapons. Well ordered militias, bedrock of diversified, no-nonsense republics. ...And we shall see what kind of economic order can grow from that base. I personally believe great things are possible.

Having both Leatherneck and Bootneck friends, let me assure you it is entirely possible to be all of the above lol. I have no reason to believe he lied....

Some history from (Kazani) Galeev, though he hasn't (yet) explicitly waded into the present day implications.

Support for the 'Franco thesis' of Lukashenko behaviour? (Or else a fake) Open appeal of servicemen of the 5th special brigade of special purpose Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus Dear Alexander Grigorievich! The personnel of the 5th special constitutional order. Without exception, all military personnel of the Brigade are ready to defend the borders of our Motherland to the last drop of blood, regardless of the exigencies and hardships of military service. Currently, officers of the 5th special brigade of special purpose of the Armed Forces are observing the grossest violation by the highest political leadership of the Russian Federation of Article 1 of the Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, according to which “the Republic of Belarus has supremacy and complete power on its territory, and independently implements domestic and foreign policy.” The occupation by the Russian Federation of the internationally recognized territories of the friendly state of Ukraine, an attempt by the President of the Russian Federation V. V. Putin to drag the Republic of Belarus into an unprovoked war against a sovereign state, is nothing short of the destruction of the sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus. As a result of the aggression, the Russian Federation has already foundered itself in the stringencies of international economic foreign policy, which is steadily destroying the country's economy. The Republic of Belarus is a democratic social state. Article 2 of the Constitution defines a person, his or her rights and freedoms, and guarantees of these, as the highest value and goal of society and the state. Supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin in his aggression against Ukraine will entail huge human losses among the military and civilian population. Entering the war against Ukraine and the countries of Europe and America that are supporting its sovereignty and territorial integrity within internationally-recognized borders, will expunge the Republic of Belarus from the community of civilized powers, making our nation a pariah state for many years to come. Entering the war on the side of Russia for the Republic of Belarus will be veritable suicide. The political isolation and international sanctions that such aggression against Ukraine will inevitably entail, will be disastrous for our country which, unlike the Russian Federation, does not have a margin of safety in the form of a reserve of natural resources. Based on the foregoing, the personnel of the 5–11th special brigade of the special purpose of the Armed Forces appeals to you, dear Alexander Grigoryevich, with an appeal not to sacrifice the people of Belarus, the future of our children, and the sovereignty of the state you head, for the sake of the imperial ambitions of the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, which is alien to all citizens of Belarus without exception. Having chosen the profession of military men, we are all ready to give our lives defending our Motherland from aggression. At the same time, having entered into a war of conquest against a state friendly to us, in our own eyes and in the eyes of our children, we will lose the right to be called Officers, turning into occupiers and war criminals. We have the honour to be!…

Short piece by Phillips O'Brien https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/07/rethinking-russia-ukraine-international-political-power-military-strength/661452 Russian strength has shown itself to be so overrated that it gives us an opportunity to rethink what makes a power “great” .... A military is only as strong as the society, economy, and political structure that assembled it. In this case, Russia was nowhere near a great power.... Its economy is about the tenth largest in the world, comparable to Brazil’s, but even that masks how remarkably unproductive it is, basing most of its wealth on extracting and selling natural resources, rather than on producing anything advanced. When it comes to technology and innovation, Russia would hardly rank in the top 50 most important countries in the world.