LongLeftFlank

Galeev on a roll lately regarding magical thinking, 'martyrdom' and the silly season... And all this in a land where chess is a spectator sport.... or used to be, anyway.

[you know you'd be disappointed if I didn't respond with a meme clip] And in the War of the Future, all higher commanders will have nice goatees. In fact, I am totally convinced @The_Capt is in RL a dead ringer for CPT Mitchell from "Hyena Road". Just like @Beleg85 is in fact Aristotle and @IanL is in fact a cat. And I am an evil Bakshi wizard with no flesh on his forearms.

... hell, even the 'holes' might be only one potential posture for the 'light' fighter. Thinking about 'thinning' and deepening the front as a counter to saturation bombardment. Don't present identifiable targets, or conversely, present a functionally infinite number of vacant/dummy targets. Ten thousand holes in Blackburn Lancashire / And though the holes were rather small / they had to fill them all... Those Mad Max dune buggies posted by @Haiduk are quite something, though not especially new to warfare. ...during the 1985 Chad war, the Libyan T55s were unable to rotate their turrets quickly enough to hit TOW-mounted Hilux pickups. And of course you had the SAS in Cyrenaica 1942. Imagine (and we don't actually have to imagine much) a higher tech version where the riders hop off into safe hidey holes and then remotely operate the weapon platform in the hot zone. Like upsized toys, with plug and play modules for AT, AP, air defence, minelaying/clearing, salvage/maintenance of other vehicles, etc. [Some pages ago, someone posted a tweet of Russians marveling at an 'indestructible' MG position that turned out to be a remotely-operated BTR turret] And at that point, the 'poor bloody infantry' is more like something out of Heinlein than a distraught bag of meat clutching a rifle waiting for the shell with his name on it.

While we're resurrecting old games.... Kekekekekekekekekekekeke!!!!!

For great justice!

You know our standing orders, Kaminski: Out of commission, become a pillbox. Out of ammo, become a bunker. Out of time, become heroes.

In Putin Russia, Score settle YOU! Galeev has been a little scattershot lately, but he does make a relevant point here: ... TL:DR All cards can go wild in extremis. Especially in Russia, where an economy/polity 'demodernised' itself twice within the last 100+ years. Even shorter: for Kremlinologists, GIGO *** P.S. Remember the Skripals and any number of other minor players for whom the 'punishment' did not seem to fit the crime, at least by any rationale rational people might use.... “‘Who ever heard of Moscow Rules in the middle of bloody Hampstead anyway?’ Strickland asked, waving out the match. ‘Bloody Hampstead is right,’ Smiley said quietly.”

... or WELCOME TO ALBANIA: YOUR CAR IS HERE ALREADY

.... or are now reduced to feeding on a warm patch of water behind the shark.

Collapse Watch, episode ____ 1. https://www.dw.com/en/yale-study-shows-sanctions-are-crippling-russias-economy/a-62623738 With the exodus of some 1,000 global companies, Russia has lost companies that represent some 40% of gross domestic product, according to the study.... In the longer run, Russia's economy will become more primitive as it partially decouples from international trade, it said. To avoid social tensions, the government will intervene to support Russian businesses, leading to more protectionism and a larger state footprint in the economy. 2. More data (June): https://www.csis.org/analysis/strangling-bear-sanctions-russia-after-four-months The existing sanctions, especially export controls, may contribute to favorable military outcome for Ukraine by weakening Russia’s ability to resupply its forces. But ultimately, this is a war, and the road to a settlement probably goes through the battlefield. 3. Counterpoint? Not really, just more bluster: https://fortune.com/2022/07/30/russia-is-skirting-sanctions-quite-successfully-meet-the-architect-of-putins-economic-counterattack/ As some powerful Kremlin players have pushed for reasserting state control over the economy, Oreshkin has fought back, so far successfully. “Russia is not going to abandon the market economy,” Oreshkin said in reply to questions from Bloomberg. “On the contrary, it’s moving in the opposite direction. Private initiative is now especially encouraged. This is constantly noted by the president in his speeches.” Blyat blyat blyat.... 4. Moscow does not believe in stats [interesting piece by a Navalny aligned ex minister]... https://www.globsec.org/news/yes-it-hurts-measuring-the-effects-of-western-sanctions-against-russia/ Russia has greatly reduced the transparency of its economy, stopping to publish some vital statistics and corporate data.... data on budget spending became classified. This made it significantly harder to assess the effects of sanctions.... We also don’t know the real ruble exchange rate – which is vital for ...an economy heavily dependent on international trade, including mass imports of goods and critical intermediary components for manufacturing. ...food prices growth is higher than the overall consumer inflation, and undercounting its share reduces the overall inflation estimates. Russian enterprises are accustomed to using various tricky forms of work suspension without laying off workers (reduced working hours, temporary downtime, etc.), which distorts the overall picture of unemployment Russia will receive much less [energy] profits from the Asian market. For instance, in April-June, the average price of Russian Urals oil blend was about $36 per barrel below Brent average – whereas transporting the oil from Baltic and Black Sea ports is significantly more costly. The infrastructure aimed at exporting natural gas from Western Siberia, the main gas producing region in Russia, to Asia is simply nonexistent, and will take hundreds of billions of dollars (and years) to build. 5. For those interested, by the same author, skepticism on a Russia-China entente (Nov 2021): https://www.martenscentre.eu/publication/ambitions-dashed-why-sino-russian-economic-cooperation-is-not-working/?amp=1 **** All that said, I remain concerned that Xi's China is / will take targeted measures that prolong the war (e.g. quietly sending certain arms, kit or other manufactures Russia can't make for itself), simply because he sees keeping Russia in the fight as a way to bloody the US nose without a direct confrontation. If American resolve weakens after the midterms, that will seriously damage US standing in the world, to China's benefit. I am not saying that will happen -- in fact I doubt it -- or that Chinese aid *can* in fact materially prop up Putin. But it's what Xi thinks that matters, and a price will be paid in Ukrainian lives.

Interesting 30 minute grunt level memoir from a volunteer squaddie who fought in Irpin and Bucha. He went home in March, but he did his bit.

... I wonder how soft and absorbent that paper is? Meanwhile in 'Mockba'....

Curious how that map cuts off at Kharkiv / Kursk. The Argus eye would also seem to cover most of the territory of Belarus.....

CMBN Pacific: Makin Atoll I am not in a position to do anything CM related, beyond the occasional drive by on the Ukraine thread. But good luck to anyone wanting to pursue a PT project. I personally find PTO can be satisfyingly gamed in CM.

Oh that's right, how silly of me. Biden is King Solomon and Thufir Hawat all rolled into one, and his Cabinet sits at his feet, dutifully scribing his analysis and making his sacred Word flesh. What's your take on it, since you clearly know him intimately, or have access to the Oval Office? In more than one word, since Nonsense is not in fact self evident.

None of the above assessments of US decisionmaking are contradictory IMHO. It is pretty obvious to me that Mr. Biden (like Reagan as of 1984 or so) suffers senile dementia, and it is progressing, with good days and bad days, as we see pretty much every second time Joe speaks off the cuff. Nor was he an especially brilliant man when he was in his prime; let's not fool ourselves about this. Although there are many different kinds of 'smart' in this world.... But like most folks in such cases, Biden falls back on the effective habits of a lifetime (40 years in public service), plus the advice of trusted persons like his wife and longtime staff. I won't claim he's a rubber stamp, but he knows how to 'listen' for the consensus and declare the decision, without necessarily grasping details, or contributing much in the way of synthesis or critique. Hence the comfortable armchairs around the fireplace for him and Kamala, not a conference table or the War Room..... Anywah, JRB makes a perfectly adequate figurehead for the permanent policy establishment (the MIC, the Swamp, whatever you are inclined to call it). This is the (very much bipartisan) group whose performance is being praised here. And in time of war, that's how it ought to be. ....Would I personally wish to be governed permanently by such an unelected permanent establishment? No! A mandarinate has its own flaws, not least that it governs for its own convenience, not that of the people, even when not overtly venal. However, in time of war, such a structure makes eminent sense, and we're all seeing it at work. One expat Canuck's opinion....

No time to read this right now, but looks interesting.....

1. Haven't checked in on OBrien in a bit, here's his latest thoughts on the war. Shouldn't shock anyone on this thread: like the strategists on here, he isn't overly worried about Ukraine's 'inability' to concentrate heavy forces. Overall this way of fighting is generally why I'm positive about Ukr prospects. The two sides are intellectually fighting very differently. The Russians are plodding, battle-centric, have difficulties adjusting and cant operate their complex systems well (see air and sea power) 2. Interesting thread here, from March, though covers a far wider scope than this war.... There were no decisive battles in WW2.... Wow, them's fighting words for CM grogs lol.

Hmm, other than the slow motion self-inflicted dismantling on what was once its own territory, of what was once a key Eurasian empire and global superpower holding (many of) the keys to Doomsday, sure, no doubt future historians will see no difference whatsoever.... @danfrodoaww

Brennschluß! (I swore an solemn oath long ago to work that word into casual conversation whenever I possibly can. Yeah, life of the party, I know) ....He takes some time lightening a cigarette. He won't hear the thing come in. It travels faster than the speed of sound. The first news you get of it is the blast. Then, if you're still around, you hear the sound of it coming in. What if it should hit exactly-ahh, no-for a split second you'd have to feel the very point, with the terrible mass above, strike the top of the skull... (Apols. to Sir Elton, I carry a lifelong torch for Kate, in spite of the... questionable choice of a reggae beat for this cover) OK, with that, I return you to your regularly scheduled thread.

A legend in his own mind....

Umm, I seem to recall them having a slightly worse day on 22 June 1941.... **** Meanwhile, you may find youself in a different part of the world.... I do loves me some good CT snark lol.