LongLeftFlank

Ha, you're sounding like me there, Steve. I've never believed time especially favours one side over the other in this thing. And all this confident talk of waiting til summer still gives me the willies. Western militaries are in love with the Big Buildup, followed by the Big Push. But that presupposes Very Large resource dominance (materiel AND manpower), which I do not concede is the case in this war (cuz RU:UKR population 3.5x, and cuz China/Iran). Remember, the 'Yanks Aren't Coming' (just some of their stuff). As time passes, capability gains on both sides aren't always linear or incremental. There are step function jumps that occur. Since Russia is slow, giving them ample time to faff around but eventually puzzle out those step-ups (e.g. drone warfare, higher tech mortars, Chinese Stugnas/Javs) carries a risk. So what UKR is using the time to do better be worth it. (Especially if the Russians regain the Oskil boundary, reach the outkirts of Siversk and wind down their mass attacks, then begin angling for a cease-fire. Another 200k+ mobiks are already being dragooned in to replace the dead meat. They're losing their habit of clustering around their AFVs and their fieldcraft is improving). I still believe an overwhelming battlefield victory encompassing the destruction of an entire RU combined arms army in the land bridge is possible. And fine, the black box of C4ISR could create a fatal imbalance that allows UA to hand-pick points of overwelming dominance and renders all Russian improvements moot. ....But as they say, don't make 'perfect' the enemy of 'good enough'. Ukraine doesn't have that luxury. P.S. I am waiting for the latest smackdown from @The_Capt (if he hasn't hit Ignore already lol), but when you say 'Russia has lost [and continues to lose] things it cannot replace', can you please be more specific?

Cash for clunkers lol

I'm gonna quit bogarting the Thread for a bit (there really was a lot of interesting stuff tho!), but be sure to take a look at DanSpiun: lots of recent AFV bang-bangs. Here's a teaser (retweet)

Wait, you think getting to the Azov would be minor? **** OK, every Northern kid who's done doughnuts late at night in a snowy supermarket parking lot in their hand-me-down rear wheel drive Impala or Buick station wagon will feel the pure joy of this driver!

A quick look at the fighting in the balkas and woodlands of the northern front (Kupyansk-Kreminna), overshadowed of late by the battles for the fortress cities of unoccupied Donbass. It seems clear that Russia is aiming to reestablish a line of control along the Oskil River, and if it can, the Siversky Donetz bank as well (Lyman - Sviatohirsk). There's only fragmentary evidence as to the blood price being paid for these gains. Sense I get is that the UA is mainly using territorials, Jaeger units and SpecOps to hold this front. .... oh and I should add, this front appears to be prime HIMARS hunting grounds. Speaking of balkas.

Also interesting, Trent Telenko on JDAMS and some other cool tidbits, courtesy of Pat Lang's blog. https://turcopolier.com/how-the-jdam-er-will-be-employed-ttg/ “The firepower of the Russian Army is in its vehicles,” pretty much covers it. All the best Russian digital spread-spectrum and frequency hopping radios were in its newest vehicles. Most of which have been destroyed in the last year of fighting. This leaves Russian artillery with older Cold War generation radios, 3G cell phones or Chinese commercial radios which are all horribly vulnerable to 1980s technology direction finding, let alone that of the 2020’s gear with 1 to 3 meter geolocation performance. This plays into Ukraine’s new JDAM-ER glide bombs. Which, when toss bombed at low altitude under radar coverage, can travel up to 44 km.... the JDAM-ER is relatively inexpensive, about $25,000 for a 500 lb warhead, larger and far cheaper than a GLMRS round.

Tatarigami is excellent! Glad he's getting a lot of attention. Source piece below worth reading in full, by a Commonwealth [?] adviser. https://maidan.org.ua/en/2023/02/glen-grant-2023-a-time-and-chance-for-military-change-in-ukraine/#Geographical_command_boundaries Despite the maxim of “we trust in the ZSU” this organisation cannot be perfect having grown and changed so dramatically in such a short time.... The battle commander under fire being king and not the most senior officer is a NATO standard and policy that some commanders are clearly finding it difficult to understand and implement. It goes against all their training and education. We need clear ownership and responsibilities of every piece of ground on the frontline and behind to avoid casualties due to a lack of boundary clarity. This requires every area to have a designated commander, and all personnel entering that area to be under their command. Geographical boundaries must not constrain the unit's ability to maneuver and attack the enemy from the sides or change positions. - Numerous independent units operate in opposition to each other.... - SOF are supposed to be (and were trained by the US to be) the deep attack organization working behind the lines to disrupt and destroy. Instead, they are often being used as light infantry wasting years of expensive US training. - To counter evolving tactics used by Russia and Wagner, troops require resources such as drones, radios and internet, night sights, 60mm mortars, grenades and grenade launchers for platoons, a full 81/82mm mortar company for each battalion, short-range missiles, AFAKs, uniform and safety equipment for every soldier. Especially the dedicated medium mortars. Does UKR have a capability to make the clip fed Vasilek 82mm? (what is it, a dozen bombs in the air before the first one lands?). Wait, according to Wiki it is, or was, licence built in Hungary (talk about coin-operated lol).

Because of course they are, if there's money in it. That said, this one is pretty lame (that's what $13k usd gets you on Alibaba). 20kg payload, downed with small arms. The weaponized commercial drone did not have a camera fitted, which means it could not have been used for surveillance, and essentially makes it similar to a “dumb bomb,”

Nice frame by frame analysis and locational context of that trench knife fight. It shields Bakhmut's lifeline....

In theory, sure, but it also depends how much 'un-ground' Ivan meat is left to reap those gains. **** Nothing too militarily interesting in this BBC field report, but at this point the Ukrainian grunts are really starting to look like Vikings!

The Ukes have showed a gift for the unexpected, but surprise isn't everything.* 1. In addition to continued Russian control keeping all of the lower Dnipr under permanent threat (ceasefire or no), it is also by far the hardest area for the Russians to supply, reinforce and fly air support missions to. 2. It's also steppelands (albeit now under cultivation) and so terrain generally favours the side that can dominate ranged firefights (e.g. Vuhledar). Increasingly, that seems to be Ukraine although there are some notable c0ckups. 3. The rear area is only 70 - 100kms deep before your back is to the Azov. There are relatively few ports and seaborne resupply is risky, plus the Russians need to offload cargo to trucks. Hint, their logistics suck with the possible exceptions of rail (no longer available to that area) and redeployments of combat units (the UA command has noted they're good at that, witness Kherson and actually north Luhansk). 4. Clearly the Russians are frantically digging in to try for a replay of Zitadelle 1943, to bog down the Ukie mech in defensive belt after defensive belt (in what was even more barren terrain). But are such 1940s positional defenses (without years to refine them which the UA had after 2014) really that decisive in an era of plentiful and powerful precision weapons, available down to squad level? when these positions aren't at least somewhat masked by woodlands or settlements/cityscapes? They are hiding in plain sight: see Brady Africk's Twiitter feed. * I might even argue that psychologically knowing exactly what is about to happen and yet still being powerless to avert it is even worse than being surprised. The Greek tragedians and Alfred Hitchcock well understood that effect.

I am reminded of Colin Powell's succinct quote, when asked what his plan was to eject the Iraqi army from Kuwait: First we're going to cut it off. And then we're going to kill it. So in the strategically vital (for both sides) Kinburn to Mariupol 'land bridge' corridor, it seems this should be doable, with precision long range artillery standing in place of USAF air power. Interdict, immobilise, isolate and then reduce the cauldrons, via overwhelming and systematic application of explosive. Among other things, this assumes the existence of adequately trained assault pioneer units. IMHO, the more ordinary infantry can be 'upskilled' into these roles (in addition to OJT of course), the better! And yes, I get that that doesn't happen overnight. ...Recalling the 1991 CNN footage of mass surrenders of disheveled Iraqis, it would also be useful for the Ukraine to engage in some intensive psyops aimed to induce bulk surrenders as the 'cauldron' intensifies. At a certain point, fear of certain death at the hands of the enemy overcomes fear of the 'sledgehammers', especially as the rear areas break down into chaos.

Good ol' Yookie ingenuity. Flying Schu mine. Cost per unit, £33. ...Of course this is the kind of kit I'm worried about China (quietly) supplying in bulk to the Russians. There's plenty Ivans who can figure this stuff out and the UA grunts are starting to report more and more effective drone bombings too. So counters need to be developed, stat. The catcher nets seem decently effective against the Lancets. For basic infantry protection, I continue to believe that some kind of body covering kevlar cloak/groundsheet/foxhole cover could provide decent (though not perfect) protection against simple frag grenades and 'cigarette packet' sized charges like this. Forcing the enemy to drop mortar bomb sized or HEAT charges from larger, more complex (and hittable) drones. ...Hmm, actually is that some kind of kevlar gorget plate the RU journo is wearing on his neck? Never seen that one.

Noted with thanks, we just ended up making fun of Americans anyway, as ya do.....

It does happen tho. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/12/06/the-remarkable-case-of-the-triple-agent-and-the-bombing-in-khost-afghanistan/ *** The 35th I.D. command nearly 'broke' and withdrew in a heavy forest battle in France when a German shell blew a bunch of the already overstressed staff into shreds. It required the direct intervention of 'Ol Blood 'n Guts to turn things around. I wish this had been in the movie.

Well, as Sun Tzu taught us, it's all about hoarding your Risk card sets, and bulking up in Iceland. Lol, I have a friend btw who was offered a job based in Singapore and had always assumed it was in China. When it was pointed out to him on a map, he said, "Wait, but that's 'Siam'. Why didn't you say that before?" And yes, he meant Risk.

Hmm, the 'Grownups in the Room' (ROFL) seem to think the global powers are playing the ancient Chinese game of.... Risk. ...Makes sense though, cuz there's that dotted line from Alaska to Kamchatka that Sara Palin was on about. **** And as a counterpoint, apologies for tossing the cat among the Europigeons again, but according to this 'scientific poll', it appears Germany could achieve Drang Nach Osten quite peacefully now.

Got yer snow-eating-fog right here, Ivan! For the first few seconds I was gaping at the TC fighting out of an open hatch, but soon realised it was the AAMG. 2. Splash one bogey.... 3. #KillAllTheTrucks 4. Relic. 5. Drone films drone striking a footbridge....

Seems Wagner has a foothold in the 'Vostokmash' shops in the AZOM complex anchoring the north end of Bakhmut. Suriyak, as noted, is fairly credible as pro-RU goes... Video (no idea what feed this is, ACHTUNG)

P.S. Water-filled Huge Crater terrain object, s.v.p! Place in Mud tile for full bogging effect. P.P.S. Prefab 6 man bunker. Once dug in and covered in 1.5m of packed earth, can shrug off all but a direct 152mm hit. (My grandparents in north London had an Anderson shelter in their garden, lightly used. Wouldn't have saved them from the V2 that landed at the bottom of the street, killing a schoolmate of my Dad). (From Dmitri's feed)

Yeah, saw that but didn't investigate further because the map was so minimalist. Like something out of Pandemic. Have you tried the game? Boring map aside, it seems to play at divisional scale, which I maintain isn't going to tell a player much about what's distinct in this war that differentiates it from the 1941-44 battles fought across this same area (by larger forces). Or maybe you feel differently?

Looking beyond Bakhmut? Kramatorsk by, what, Christmas? ...of course, if you live in Chuck Pfarrer promo world, the Ukes are about to retake Krasna Hora. Then on back to Soledar. P.S. The more of these clips I see, the more I believe losses are now at rough parity in the city fight. It's hide and seek with guns, and it appears neither team particularly outguns the other at this point, in terms of small arms, armour or (usable) arty. Except for the AZOM complex, it looks like the redoubts that commanded broad fields of fire at the outskirts are now pierced. Time to bring in the Boston Dynamics slaughterbot dogs?

Here is a hex wargame dealing with modern conflict in Ukraine. 'Opaque War: Ukraine 2014.' The map is very tidy and crisp, but also quite non-granular (may I say, it, dull) in terms of terrain, like most of the hex wargame maps I've browsed. Your big counter stacks fight their big counter stacks, roll dice, take casualties. Not much insight into the battlefield dynamics or the value of terrain (fortified cities and factories?) here, at least not in evidence from the map. I mean, is this going to give you any insight at all over why, or how, you'd contest Bahmut (Artemivsk)? It's just a dot in 'open terrain', with a road.

Spring Prelude: Kharkov 1942. Superbly done topo map here! this is probably the perfect hex scale for what I have in mind. Very fine mapwork here, although could do without the little sunburst icons.