StellarRat

<BLOCKQUOTE>quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by aaronb: Ok, it works like this. n = percent chance of arrival on a given turn t = number of turns that go by p(a,t) = the chance of arrival before or on turn t If each turn is independent of the one before it (unlike weather, where a sunny day skews the next day's weather, loosely speaking), then: p(a,t) = 1-(1-n)^t E.g., on the first turn, if the chance of arrival is .4 (40%): p(a,1) = 1-(1-.4)^1 p(a,1) = 1-(.6)^1 p(a,1) = 1-.6 p(a,1) = .4, as we would expect. So, if there is a 2% chance each turn (and the manual says it is not cumulative), then: p(a,25) = 1-(1-.02)^25 = 1-(.98)^25 = 1-0.60346473 = 0.39653527 or about 40%. This is exactly what dNorwood said. I've just given the formula so you can do the math for yourself. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE> So, based on what your telling me I believe there is a bug here. In 20+ games I should see reinforcements before turn 25 and some games no reinforcements ever. With a 40% chance (by your calcs) the odds against not getting reinforcements before turn 25 in 20+ games is huge. Also, there should be games where I get no reinforcements, this is also not happening.

I have a scenario that I've designed where there is a 2% each turn of reinforcements arriving and five possible types of reinforcements (after turn 1.) In other words each turn the game should try five times to "roll" a 2% or less and depending on which reinforcement gets the roll I may get one of five different types of tanks as reinforcement (or I could get multiple reinforcements in one turn if I'm really lucky.) The problem is that I've played the scenario at least 20+ times now and I've NEVER gotten the reinforcements before turn 25. Is the chance cumulative? The reinforcements always seem to arrive around turn 25 or later (out of 30 turns.) The other weird thing is that I ALWAYS seem to get some reinforcements. It seems that there should be a good chance that nothing will show up for the entire game. I would think if the chance wasn't cumulative they would arrive at various times during the game not just towards the end. I didn't notice this problem in v1.05. I've submitted a bug report for v1.1B24. Has anyone else noticed this?

Just played two games last night with mortars and had no problems with v1.24

I have a scenario that I've designed where there is a 2% each turn of reinforcements arriving and five possible types of reinforcements (after turn 1.) In other words each turn the game should try five times to "roll" a 2% or less and depending on which reinforcement gets the roll I may get one of five different types of tank as reinforcement or I could get multiple reinforcements in one (if I'm really lucky.) The problem is that I've played they scenario at least 20 times now and I've NEVER gotten the reinforcements before turn 10. Is the chance cumulative? The reinforcements always seem to arrive around turn 25 or later (out of 30 turns.) I would think if the chance wasn't cumulative they would arrive at various times during the game not just towards the end.

Maybe Lucas' definition of tactical support includes a larger area then the typical CM map. With as few shots as they have and the scatter I just don't see them as a weapon flexible enough to be used in close combat, however I could see them used at longer ranges (500m +) to break up an attack. Either CM doesn't model them well or Lucas is thinking of them in different way. I guess I better read his book too.

I use the German heavy weapons platoons (or is it companies?) strictly on the defense. Those four heavy machineguns and 81mm mortars will stop any infanty attack cold. Haven't tried any Allied heavy weapons platoons yet.

I used the 300mm rockets once and only once. They are just too inaccurate. I hit my own troops and the enemy troops and I'm quite sure a lot of deer, squirrels, cows and chickens died all over the map! Everything I've seen/read about rockets indicates that were used as a preliminary softening up type of weapon before a major offensive (i.e. before your troops would make contact.) I think of them as strategic bombing not tactical support. I'm sure you can image what several batteries of them could do to someone's frontlines right before an attack. You probably need several batteries of rockets and LARGE map to really use them with historical accuracy.

I'm doing about 100% wins, but I've only played one person online! LOL! Against the computer I played about 10 or 20 games this weekend in quick battles, always playing the Germans on the defensive, and won or drawed all but two even when I gave the Allies +200% points! Their casualities were always so high that even if they took the objectives they couldn't win. I'm sure this wouldn't be the case against a human.

Anyone think that we would have beat the Iraqis using their own equipment against them? I do. Unless there is a huge disparity in the quality of the equipment it seems to me that the quality of the troops is the deciding factor. I'll take two platoons of veterans against three regulars anytime in CM. Any thoughts on this one?

At the back of the book "Strategy" there is a summary of the basic principles of strategy. If you memorize those you will be a long way towards being a better player. Sun Tzu is very good. Napolean's Maxims are good too. The basic principles of strategy are timeless, but tactics change depending on the weapons, communications, and organization of your forces.

An experienced human is much harder to beat than the computer AI. The rule of thumb is that it takes about 2:1 (offense to defense) in resources to have any chance of winning. You will need more points than the default setup is going to give you if you are going up against an experienced player (I think the default is 1.5 to 1.) I'd try giving youself twice the points of your Dad if you want a close game. Generally, 4:1 is required to guarantee a victory. [This message has been edited by StellarRat (edited 12-26-2000).]

I think Seany B is right. CM is designed to simulate combined arms combat, but the Pacific theatre was more of an infantry only game. Tanks were basically mobile pillbox blasters. I'd much rather play on the Russian front. Also, I find the word "Jap" to be a racial slur nearly bad as "gook" and think that we shouldn't use it here.

Hey 109 Gustav. I like your ending quote. When I lived in Alaska we didn't even wear lifejackets when we went ocean fishing. They told us if there wasn't someone around to pick you out of the water you'd be dead in three minutes, hence the life jacket was pretty much unless.

I believe the Super Sherman had a high velocity 105mm mounted. They can give any Russian vehicle up to a T-62 a good run for their money!

If there's any chance to miss the laws of probability are going to catch up with you eventually and some really bad luck is going to occur, just like horribly bizarre things happen to people in "real life." I was playing my friend once in Star Fleet Battles and he rolled five sixes at close range with his disruptors, a 1 - 5 would have been a hit. By my calcs that's about a 1 in 7776 chance! My return salvo was only average but it was enough to win. Another possibility that I can think of is that the random number generation isn't exactly random. Our Turbo Pascal compiler that tended to roll numbers less than 3 (out of 100) about three times as often as it was supposed to. After we noticed that some rare events seemed to occur too often we spent an evening running off hit results and plotting the averages. Bingo compiler error! So we flipped the equations and used high numbers to simulate rare events. Problem solved.

You have to use a lot of cover or a thick smoke screen to get a flamethrower in position. I've done it in the Aachen scenario by moving the flamethrower through buildings one by one. When they do fire, they are devastating against infantry worse than any tank gun.

Since you're all talking about videos. I have recently found out that videos only have a shelf life of about 15 - 20 years (much less if they are played frequently), so I think DVD is the only way to go.

Wow! There are some of the ancient ones on this tread (including yours truly!) My Most Memorable: Asteroids - (in the arcade) I won't tell you how many quarters went into those machines, but I met my best friend and first love there and she's still my best friend after 20+ years and the only person that I know that scored over 300,000 on Asteroids II) The first three in the X-COM series - Who can forget the eerie music and shock the very first time you came up on a UFO in X-COM: UFO Defense? I still remember that to this day. Pacific Air War Falcon 4.0 Steel Panthers I and II Jane's F-15 Strike Eagle Harpoon (Amiga) Hero's of Might and Magic II and III Baldur's Gate I and II Master of Orion II Pool of Radiance (Amiga) Rogue Spear Homeworld and Homeworld Cataclysm Empire (Amiga) Civ I and II And of course CM...

Wow! There are some of the ancient ones on this tread (including yours truly!) My Most Memorable: Asteroids - (in the arcade) I won't tell you how many quarters went into those machines, but I met my best friend and first love there and she's still my best friend after 20+ years and the only person that I know that scored over 300,000 on Asteroids II) The First three in the X-COM series - Who can forget the eerie music and shock the very first time you came up on a UFO in X-COM? I still remember that to this day. Pacific Air War Falcon 4.0 Steel Panthers I and II Jane's F-15 Strike Eagle Harpoon (Amiga) Hero's of Might and Magic II and III Baldur's Gate I and II Master of Orion II Pool of Radiance (Amiga) Rogue Spear Homeworld and Homeworld Cataclysm Empire (Amiga) Civ I and II

If you are hosting a game and don't have a static IP address you will have to run WINIPCFG everytime to find out what IP address your ISP assigned to you when you connected. This would be true for almost all dialup modem users. Some DSL users will have a static IP address and I believe all cable modem users should have a static IP address. You have this type of connection I'd check it a few times and see if it changes, if not you can write it down keep using it.

That's a big topic. Just in summary: I have found that most of the systems supplied by Dell, Gateway, etc...have become less upgradeable, but cheaper during the last few years. If you can work on your own hardware I recommend building your own. You can usual put a system together for a price close to the big guys. I have an Athlon 650, Voodoo 5500 AGP, 256 megs of RAM and a Creative Labs 128 PCI sound card. I built it myself and I'm real happy with it. If you build your own (or have someone build it for you) the parts will USUALLY be more interchangeable and standardized than the ones that are built by the big mail order companies, however, with a mail order PC you are less likely to have any bugs that need to be worked out after the PC is built. As far as what you are looking at right now, I would increase the memory to 256 meg. I haven't ever used any 3D card besides the Voodoo line so I can't address your choice there.