The_Capt

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.

That is not an indirect fire system, it is an industrial party noise maker.  If I am not mistaken that is a rocket pod from a helicopter?  

I have been asking myself how on earth the RA is holding itself together for about 6 months now.  The first year, ok, any military has built in resilience.  That winter offensive in ‘23, pretty horrendous but “crazy F’n Russians”.  But the fall-winter offensive this last year…?  I have no idea how a military holds itself together after these kind of losses. Not just the dead soldiers but we are talking NCOs and officers too.  Granted the RA never really made any significant gains but still, all these losses in people and equipment have to add up eventually.  Every human organization has a breaking point and cannot sustain attrition forever.  I can say that I am confident that whatever military the RA is now, it is a shadow of the one that crossed the borders in ‘22.  All of the peacetime qualified crews, technicians and specialists have to be so severely attrited by now that all the RA can do is “meat offensives.”  Or dig in and hold on.  The professional RA has been shattered in this war.

I have been asking myself how on earth the RA is holding itself together for about 6 months now.  The first year, ok, any military has built in resilience.  That winter offensive in ‘23, pretty horrendous but “crazy F’n Russians”.  But the fall-winter offensive this last year…?  I have no idea how a military holds itself together after these kind of losses. Not just the dead soldiers but we are talking NCOs and officers too.  Granted the RA never really made any significant gains but still, all these losses in people and equipment have to add up eventually.  Every human organization has a breaking point and cannot sustain attrition forever.  I can say that I am confident that whatever military the RA is now, it is a shadow of the one that crossed the borders in ‘22.  All of the peacetime qualified crews, technicians and specialists have to be so severely attrited by now that all the RA can do is “meat offensives.”  Or dig in and hold on.  The professional RA has been shattered in this war.

I have been asking myself how on earth the RA is holding itself together for about 6 months now.  The first year, ok, any military has built in resilience.  That winter offensive in ‘23, pretty horrendous but “crazy F’n Russians”.  But the fall-winter offensive this last year…?  I have no idea how a military holds itself together after these kind of losses. Not just the dead soldiers but we are talking NCOs and officers too.  Granted the RA never really made any significant gains but still, all these losses in people and equipment have to add up eventually.  Every human organization has a breaking point and cannot sustain attrition forever.  I can say that I am confident that whatever military the RA is now, it is a shadow of the one that crossed the borders in ‘22.  All of the peacetime qualified crews, technicians and specialists have to be so severely attrited by now that all the RA can do is “meat offensives.”  Or dig in and hold on.  The professional RA has been shattered in this war.

Exactly why we should pursue it. Two decades where we can buy time and hope something shifts.  Good strategy is always about keeping as many options open for as long as possible.  You point to 1918 Germany, I point to 1952 Korea.  We can risk manage a frozen conflict and slowly dying Russia.  We cannot risk manage rapid shifts and movements.  20 years is long enough to pull Ukrainian into NATO and make it freakin Poland, complete with NATO forces on the ground.  This war would not have happened at all had we done this in 2015.  The lesson here is to not waste strategic pauses.

I disagree.  Ukrainian genocide is a given.  In ‘22 it would have likely been cultural with a dose of brutal oppression.  After the last two years, I do not want to think about the level of vengeance that would be visited upon the Ukrainian people if Russia somehow prevailed.
As to Western collapse…nonsense.  You have pinned NATO, EU and Chinese expansion on this one war.  To the point the entire western world depends upon it.  This is simply not true.  First off, we could win this war and still see NATO and EU fold up, they were under intense political pressure before this war even started.  I think it more likely we will see western powers rally closer together in an Ukraine losing situation.  Some may decide to jump but a dangerous Russia and China are a “united we stand” mechanism, not an “every one for themselves”…and I will raise you Sweden and Finland to prove it.
As to the “Fall of Western Democracies” if we lose in Ukraine…again utter nonsense. Western voters are not absorbed by this war. In fact western ennui and apathy is the major challenge in keeping up political support for this war.  If Ukraine falls and bad things happen, western powers will embrace refugees (for awhile) and quickly change the channel, like we have for a long list of “troubles over there” for the last thirty years. Western democracies are more likely to tear themselves apart over a myriad of internal issues than a war most North Americans can’t find on a map.
Oversubscribing this war is bad as undersubscribing.  Because if you are framing this war as existential for the entire western world well then risking a full on Russian collapse or even nuclear war makes perfect sense…but it is factually wrong.
So, you may “know” but you clearly do not understand.

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.

Who is predicting military victory?  And your counter-offer is to somehow suggest the elimination of national leader...oh yes that is far more reasonable.
First rule of war is to understand the war you are in.  She in not convincing the Russian of Sweet FA by framing this thing as a "policy" issue.  My point is that this entire narrative is what is wrong within the western world right now. This is not some unfortunate divergence on a policy point, it is a war...we are in it.  It is a limited war.  It is a proxy war. But right now if Russia went "whoops, sorry" and magically pulled all its troops out deluded western politicians thinking along these lines would convince themselves it is ok to normalize with Russia the next weekend.
It is narrative that reinforces the idea that once this "unpleasantness" is over we can go back to a status quo.  A status quo that has sailed away into the history books and does no one any favours by trying to cling onto it.  We are currently negotiating a new status quo, violently.

I have been asking myself how on earth the RA is holding itself together for about 6 months now.  The first year, ok, any military has built in resilience.  That winter offensive in ‘23, pretty horrendous but “crazy F’n Russians”.  But the fall-winter offensive this last year…?  I have no idea how a military holds itself together after these kind of losses. Not just the dead soldiers but we are talking NCOs and officers too.  Granted the RA never really made any significant gains but still, all these losses in people and equipment have to add up eventually.  Every human organization has a breaking point and cannot sustain attrition forever.  I can say that I am confident that whatever military the RA is now, it is a shadow of the one that crossed the borders in ‘22.  All of the peacetime qualified crews, technicians and specialists have to be so severely attrited by now that all the RA can do is “meat offensives.”  Or dig in and hold on.  The professional RA has been shattered in this war.

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.

Who is predicting military victory?  And your counter-offer is to somehow suggest the elimination of national leader...oh yes that is far more reasonable.
First rule of war is to understand the war you are in.  She in not convincing the Russian of Sweet FA by framing this thing as a "policy" issue.  My point is that this entire narrative is what is wrong within the western world right now. This is not some unfortunate divergence on a policy point, it is a war...we are in it.  It is a limited war.  It is a proxy war. But right now if Russia went "whoops, sorry" and magically pulled all its troops out deluded western politicians thinking along these lines would convince themselves it is ok to normalize with Russia the next weekend.
It is narrative that reinforces the idea that once this "unpleasantness" is over we can go back to a status quo.  A status quo that has sailed away into the history books and does no one any favours by trying to cling onto it.  We are currently negotiating a new status quo, violently.

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.

I disagree.  Ukrainian genocide is a given.  In ‘22 it would have likely been cultural with a dose of brutal oppression.  After the last two years, I do not want to think about the level of vengeance that would be visited upon the Ukrainian people if Russia somehow prevailed.
As to Western collapse…nonsense.  You have pinned NATO, EU and Chinese expansion on this one war.  To the point the entire western world depends upon it.  This is simply not true.  First off, we could win this war and still see NATO and EU fold up, they were under intense political pressure before this war even started.  I think it more likely we will see western powers rally closer together in an Ukraine losing situation.  Some may decide to jump but a dangerous Russia and China are a “united we stand” mechanism, not an “every one for themselves”…and I will raise you Sweden and Finland to prove it.
As to the “Fall of Western Democracies” if we lose in Ukraine…again utter nonsense. Western voters are not absorbed by this war. In fact western ennui and apathy is the major challenge in keeping up political support for this war.  If Ukraine falls and bad things happen, western powers will embrace refugees (for awhile) and quickly change the channel, like we have for a long list of “troubles over there” for the last thirty years. Western democracies are more likely to tear themselves apart over a myriad of internal issues than a war most North Americans can’t find on a map.
Oversubscribing this war is bad as undersubscribing.  Because if you are framing this war as existential for the entire western world well then risking a full on Russian collapse or even nuclear war makes perfect sense…but it is factually wrong.
So, you may “know” but you clearly do not understand.

Fine with that, so long as it gets dragged out.  We got incredibly lucky back in 89-91.  The Soviet Union folded up quickly but did so into pre-existing states.  Where there was no coherent pre-existing state we got war (see Yugoslavia).  A Russian collapse does not have that safety net, so it needs to be gradual. A fast boil collapse has every chance of having very bad things happen, and (frankly bafflingly ignored by some on this forum) in the modern age bad things do not stay neatly within lines on maps.

So on that first post, this is what we mean when we say “illuminated battlefield”.  Neither side can move vehicles or even pers without getting picked up well out and then lit up. This was up near Sumy which is over 100km from Kharkiv.  We have seen this again and again in this war.  The larger the concentration, the greater the likelihood of interdiction and annihilation.  So we then see both sides penny packeting mech to sneak them forward, and everyone in the west goes “see, they don’t know how to do combined arms!”  I am beginning to think that it is us who don’t know how to do modern combined arms in this environment.

Exactly why we should pursue it. Two decades where we can buy time and hope something shifts.  Good strategy is always about keeping as many options open for as long as possible.  You point to 1918 Germany, I point to 1952 Korea.  We can risk manage a frozen conflict and slowly dying Russia.  We cannot risk manage rapid shifts and movements.  20 years is long enough to pull Ukrainian into NATO and make it freakin Poland, complete with NATO forces on the ground.  This war would not have happened at all had we done this in 2015.  The lesson here is to not waste strategic pauses.

Who is predicting military victory?  And your counter-offer is to somehow suggest the elimination of national leader...oh yes that is far more reasonable.
First rule of war is to understand the war you are in.  She in not convincing the Russian of Sweet FA by framing this thing as a "policy" issue.  My point is that this entire narrative is what is wrong within the western world right now. This is not some unfortunate divergence on a policy point, it is a war...we are in it.  It is a limited war.  It is a proxy war. But right now if Russia went "whoops, sorry" and magically pulled all its troops out deluded western politicians thinking along these lines would convince themselves it is ok to normalize with Russia the next weekend.
It is narrative that reinforces the idea that once this "unpleasantness" is over we can go back to a status quo.  A status quo that has sailed away into the history books and does no one any favours by trying to cling onto it.  We are currently negotiating a new status quo, violently.

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.

I call BS on this and frankly it is dehumanizing Russians to an unhealthy level. Sure, a lot of the RA KIA are criminals and excess human capacity, but every KIA has a mother. Many have wives and children.  My point here is not to have sympathy for the Russian soldier, they signed onto an illegal war and paid for it.  I do not even propose sympathy for the average Russian who may have lost a loved one. 
My point is that all war is personal and we likely now have millions of Russians who are taking this war personally.  These are not robots, they are people. And people do not forget personal stuff easily. They do not frame it as "policy".  War is a garden of grudges, and the ones about this war are in full growth. 
So while we in the West may pretend like it is all political, it really isn't. And the effects of this war will not be contained solely to a political arena.  Finally, politics is personal too.  We are going to be a very long time to renormalization with Russia. The status quo is broken...get used to it.

Who is predicting military victory?  And your counter-offer is to somehow suggest the elimination of national leader...oh yes that is far more reasonable.
First rule of war is to understand the war you are in.  She in not convincing the Russian of Sweet FA by framing this thing as a "policy" issue.  My point is that this entire narrative is what is wrong within the western world right now. This is not some unfortunate divergence on a policy point, it is a war...we are in it.  It is a limited war.  It is a proxy war. But right now if Russia went "whoops, sorry" and magically pulled all its troops out deluded western politicians thinking along these lines would convince themselves it is ok to normalize with Russia the next weekend.
It is narrative that reinforces the idea that once this "unpleasantness" is over we can go back to a status quo.  A status quo that has sailed away into the history books and does no one any favours by trying to cling onto it.  We are currently negotiating a new status quo, violently.

Who is predicting military victory?  And your counter-offer is to somehow suggest the elimination of national leader...oh yes that is far more reasonable.
First rule of war is to understand the war you are in.  She in not convincing the Russian of Sweet FA by framing this thing as a "policy" issue.  My point is that this entire narrative is what is wrong within the western world right now. This is not some unfortunate divergence on a policy point, it is a war...we are in it.  It is a limited war.  It is a proxy war. But right now if Russia went "whoops, sorry" and magically pulled all its troops out deluded western politicians thinking along these lines would convince themselves it is ok to normalize with Russia the next weekend.
It is narrative that reinforces the idea that once this "unpleasantness" is over we can go back to a status quo.  A status quo that has sailed away into the history books and does no one any favours by trying to cling onto it.  We are currently negotiating a new status quo, violently.

Fine with that, so long as it gets dragged out.  We got incredibly lucky back in 89-91.  The Soviet Union folded up quickly but did so into pre-existing states.  Where there was no coherent pre-existing state we got war (see Yugoslavia).  A Russian collapse does not have that safety net, so it needs to be gradual. A fast boil collapse has every chance of having very bad things happen, and (frankly bafflingly ignored by some on this forum) in the modern age bad things do not stay neatly within lines on maps.

So on that first post, this is what we mean when we say “illuminated battlefield”.  Neither side can move vehicles or even pers without getting picked up well out and then lit up. This was up near Sumy which is over 100km from Kharkiv.  We have seen this again and again in this war.  The larger the concentration, the greater the likelihood of interdiction and annihilation.  So we then see both sides penny packeting mech to sneak them forward, and everyone in the west goes “see, they don’t know how to do combined arms!”  I am beginning to think that it is us who don’t know how to do modern combined arms in this environment.

Fine with that, so long as it gets dragged out.  We got incredibly lucky back in 89-91.  The Soviet Union folded up quickly but did so into pre-existing states.  Where there was no coherent pre-existing state we got war (see Yugoslavia).  A Russian collapse does not have that safety net, so it needs to be gradual. A fast boil collapse has every chance of having very bad things happen, and (frankly bafflingly ignored by some on this forum) in the modern age bad things do not stay neatly within lines on maps.