Roach

I don't know why you told about such extreme things. This is will not help to win.
I also can't agree with comparison of current war with warcrimes and "warcrimes" during wars, which USA waged on foreign territories. We withstand much more stronger and numerous enemy, who invaded on own land. And they are not those, who had upbringing and traditions of western civilization. Our enemy is a nation, for which a will to live uder "strong hand", a violence on all levels, wars, cult of force and humilitation of weaker, semi-criminal rules in society, feel of own supremacy over other nations, imperialistic snobbery to other cultures, semi-religious messianism, envy to neighbour's success etc is a natural thing. As sings the new Russian pop-star Shaman, frontman of Z-idology in music: "I'm Russian - I wil go on till the end... I'm Russian out of spite to the whole world"
Most of Russians support this war. Even those "liberals", who "against" Putin and war indeed against own participation in this war. They were long-time proud that "we are out of policy". But indifference of millions borns dictatorship of one. Russians don't feel the war. Their largest cities stiil bask in luxury and idle life. They maybe have a hunch about dozen thousands of kileld, but believe that Ukrainians lost much more anyway (how else?) and these victims were acquitted for future dominatin of Russia in the world and humilitation of West and espacially their impudent puppet - Ukarine,  "who betrayed Russian world". 
When I read stories our former POWs, how Russians treated them in jails, how they tortured them, beat up, starved them, when I've seen how they proudly post videos with executions of our POWs and they when I've see Russian POWs, having faces like after normal restourant menu, I ask - maybe let they sit too on poor food, maybe to send them to hard works? Russian blocked POW exchanges and more and more executed our POWs. So, why we need to feed this trash, spending our budget? We had already several cases, that Russian POWs on camera told they against the war, they don't know, they were mobilized by force, they never more come to Ukraine with a weapon if they exchanged. And since some time the same Russians were captured again. So, did you surrender by free-will? Welcome to POW camp. Did you rise own hands during trench cleaning? Sorry, bro, too late.  
Russia has much more "meat" than we are. And I afraid even ATACAMS, Taurus and F-16 will not be a magic wand. Until Russians inside own country will feel a war. Not a poor single "Bober", who will fly in window of luxury skyscrapper or even into the roof of military factory. And even these episodes then will be debated in "civilized world" - either Ukraine has a right or not? Yes, we have. And we MUST to do the same as Israel does in Gaza. Where "innocent people" - from kids to olds dancing and celebrating on the streets the carnage of Jews and then crying about "how dare you bomb peaceful innocent cities?!". We must to force Russian civilians feel a panic, when they just hear any wistling sound or any sound similar to explosion. Let their children learn in subway and basements. Let even their AD shot down our missiles and drones, but let it be not single, but dozens, fragments of which will damage their appartments, cars etc. Let RDK made more raids to Russia and West don't alarming "OMG! They had Belgian rifles and two HMMWVs!!!" Let be more strikes at Russian power plants - let they sit in darkness and without work. Let be more strikes at Russian oil facilities without Western concerning "not so much, this will cause rising of prices on the oil"
Russia is a nation, who recognized only feel of fear. They wage a war on annihilation. It's stupid to see in this usual "border conflict" like between civilized nations with all rules of war, conventions etc. Allies in WWII ruined whole cities just because this played a role of revenge and psychological blows and had also some military demography objectives - reducing of potential number of mobilized or workers for economy. Two nukes on Japan maybe were warcrimes from point of view of modern humanism, but they saved lives of dozen thousands of Allies soldiers, who didn't die in further war with Japan, which could last more in 1946-47.   

Unfortunately, this concept isn’t new. My Father was severely injured while in the U.S.M.C. during WWII. His left leg was crushed from the hip to the ankle when a vehicle he was driving rolled over to the left, which threw his leg out and under it. My Grandparents received the telegram “We regret to inform you ….” He spent two years in the hospital, where they get him addicted to Morphine, which he had to kick. The U.S.M.C. discharged him on a medical discharge as a “Ruptured Duck” because his left leg was put back together with rods, pins, plates, and screws, and was 1 and 1/2 inches shorter than his right leg. He continued to work for the rest of his life as a fisherman, lobsterman, automotive body repair, and a Master Plumber. When he tried to get the U.S.M.C. to up his pension from 60 or 70% disabled to 100% disabled, they refused stating that they would up it when he couldn’t work anymore.

Used to subscribe, but won't even read it anymore after their Editorial Board article opining that step one to reducing the deficit is cutting back on veteran's benefits. Nope. 
The gist of their opinion being that veterans are getting partial disability but still able to work. Well, duh. It's not JUST about work. It's about life. What if the partial disability was that they lost a hand or lower arm and can no longer play piano, or they lost almost all of their hearing, or they were a marathon runner and lost a lower leg, or two....  I could go on, but it's about compensation for life altering injuries caused by being sent into combat. Sure, in *all* of those examples, the veteran can work, at some job, even good jobs, maybe even the job they were in before the service. But life overall has become different now, with great loss to the important things in life. It's not *just about work. As a former chief engineer who was our group leader told me once (and one of the smartest guys I ever knew), "You work to live, not live to work." 
Sorry for the off-topic but this is a huge sore spot with me. The WaPo got slaughtered in the comments for that editorial but they did not retract it or comment in any way. Someone pointed out that no one who wrote that garbage ever served. Not surprised.
We return you now to your regular warfare news.
To make an on-topic post, for myself, being essentially a Cold Warrior (although things in the 82d could occasionally get "interesting"), I would have *loved* to have the technology that is available for today's artillery. Watching all the videos of using drones to call and adjust artillery fire. These are real game changers in supporting fire. Imagine the savings in ammunition there has been because of the ability to see the enemy so much better, or to see him AT ALL, even when out of sight of any forward observer. And even at that, both sides burn through artillery ammo at a staggering rate. Coolest thing we had were the very first laser target designators and we thought that was Star Wars level stuff at the time. 
Dave
PS - I subscribe to the NYT and the Times of London, so if anyone wants an article gifted from those, let me know 🙂
 

Japan went from being a feudal nation in 1860 to crushing the Russian navy in a historical defeat in 1905.  35 years after that they had the most powerful aircraft carrier fleet in the world.  What's my point?  Don't really have one other than to say China's performance isn't all that unique.

Another war this war kind of reminds me is the Winter war. In the minds of a lot of people because a much smaller state like Finland still remained independent after it it won the war, but the truth is it also had to give up some territory in the east to the USSR. To this day I see memes related to that war.
Anyway, the part of your post I quoted I agree with and it is what really concerns me, I think we can agree that militarily this war was a disaster for Russia but internally it will be seen as a great victory. This concerns me because while Russia will not be invading anyone anytime soon after this, eventually they can rebuilt. Unlike Perun I'm no expert in military procurement so I don't know how long that will take. If the lesson Russians get from this is they can take territory by force what is to stop them from trying to do this again somewhere else, I'm thinking one of the former USSR central Asian republics where due to geography we will not be able to help them like we helped Ukraine.  Hopefully by that time we will do the right think and accept Moldova and Ukraine into NATO and close Europe to Russia. Don't think Putin or whoever may replace him in the future will try to "finish the job" if Ukraine is under the NATO flag.
To close this post up I will share my favorite Finnish meme, just to lighten this post up a little. 🙂
 
 

It's not really zero-sum though. Russia not-winning doesn't mean Ukraine isn't losing (and ... my apologies for asking you to parse through multiple negatives there)
In any negotiation there is win-win, win-loss, lose-win, and lose-lose. Right now we seem to be firmly in lose-lose territory, and the ongoing negotiation (all war is negotiation, remember) is over who loses least.
Losing least can easily be framed as a kind of success by way of "yeah that hurt, but you should see the other guy!"
 
Edit: I'm typing on my phone, which sucks. On each axis there's a spectrum which runs from 'win bigly' to 'lose like a republican voter'. The four quadrants - ww lw wl ll - above are just a convenient shorthand for a complex rainbow of possible outcomes.

Tense on the old Hot Thread today.  Not a good vibe to be found.  Everyone seems on edge somewhat.  Maybe take a moment and remember that we are all on the same side?  

Zeleban is not a Russian troll. I have been following his posts for over a year and he seems like a really honest guy who just says what he thinks. I do not agree with a few things he said in the last few pages but in the grand scheme of things lets not forget he is actually living in Ukraine right now.
He sees this war in a way us who just follow it on the Internet cannot, so lets give him a break for passionately voicing his opinions even if we do not agree with some of those opinions.

As someone who grew up in east London I had good neighbours and school friends whose families came from Turkey, Greece, Ireland, New Zealand, Guyana, Iran, Iraq, Malawi, The Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Albania, Kosovo, Russia, Bangladesh, Ukraine, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Israel, Ethiopia, Germany, Sri Lanka, China and Laos (and that’s the ones I can remember of the top of my head).  Between them they represented various different Christianities, Sikhism, Islam, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism and Buddhism.  We all celebrate Xmas (or not) however we bloody want and oh dear god I don’t have the strength to do this again…
I feel like there’s a lot of pent up fear, anger and frustration being vented on the board recently.  I guess that’s understandable from certain members at least but wow, are there some ridiculous things being said.
Slava Ukraini.

Trump is playing to his base, it is theatre.  Even he is not dumb enough to destroy NATO because it is the largest arms market on the planet.  He talks  but in his single term, that is about all he did.  It spooked people but in the end US spending on NATO remained static.  And now the US and Europe have an actual reason to invest in NATO.
As to willingness to fight, well the US just fought two of the longest wars in its history, on the other side of the planet, for a whole lot less reasons than Russia is providing it.  In fact an overt Russian war in NATO might help fix the political divides in the US.  The first US soldiers killed in this Russian invasion are going to give cause to both sides of the aisles.
As to numbers.  Well, if only 10% of NATO nations are willing to fight, that is about 100 million people.  If we can only put 10% of that into the field that is 10 million troops. Given the crazy defence/offence ratios we are seeing, for Russia to not die on the start line it will need somewhere around half its current population to have a hope of breaking a NATO defence in depth.  And this is before we even bring nuclear weapons into the discussion.  And all this after Russia shattered its hands in Ukraine.  The RA of 2023 is nowhere near the RA of 2022.
I mean let’s just cut the BS on all this.  This entire narrative “Russia is going to roll on over Europe and we will let it because: Trump/we are weak and pitiful” is nothing more than a pretty transparent attempt at fear mongering to motivate people to call their congressman or member of parliament and go “oh good gosh we had better support Ukraine or we will be next!”
Stop it.  Like guilt and shaming this is just a bad approach that is more likely to push support the other way.  How about we support Ukraine because 1) it is in our interests to contain Russia, 2) it is in our interests to be seen containing Russia, by China and 3) it is the right thing to do.  No amount of guilting or whatever is going to work.  If we can’t/wont do 1,2 and 3 then the West is doomed anyway.

Gotta be honest, I was a lot more worried about Russian aggression about 22 months ago.  Most people who hand wring over this do not understand NATO or what it really means.  It is the military alliance that secures and guarantees “The West”.  NATO nations comprises a block of nations of almost 1 Billion people who are also heavily invested in each other’s economies.  It does not matter which US president gets in, they all like the money.  And money needs stability and order to fully exploit.  If NATO falls apart then the whole Ponzi scheme falls apart
So What?  The single greatest weakness in The West is a willingness to sacrifice.  So general f#ckery by China or Russia outside of the western sphere gets tolerated in cycles of fading influence largely a victim of ignorance and apathy.  But losing NATO would mean enormous risk and sacrifice on our part, ones that we are not willing to accept.  Forcing The West’s hand is the last thing Putin wants to do.
So if Russia gets cocky and tries to make a run on Berlin, one of two things will happen: NATO will fail, or WW3.  One does not stick one’s toe in or creep into NATO in an overt manner.  It is a binary equation.
As to Russian military threat.  Well it is getting its @ss handed to it by a nation 1/4 its size held together by cash, good will and a freakin Mad Hatter’s menagerie of military support.  Assuming Ukraine collapses (somehow) how Russia would expect to take what they have left and somehow assault an opponent 6 times larger (https://www.worlddata.info/alliances/nato.php#:~:text=In addition to the USA,percent of the world's population.) and over 20 times as wealthy is beyond me.  The RA can’t mount a decent tactical victory after months of  trying but “once they get done with Ukraine they will cut through Europe like prunes through a short grandmother”?  It borders on disinformation to be honest.
Should we take threat’s seriously? Absolutely.  But let’s make sure they are really threats and not jumping at shadows.  We got all sorts of problems, we do not need to manufacture ones.

Speaking as one who lived through the “Red Scare” BS of “Tail Gunner Joe,” and not the history books, the opinions of many that he was right, doesn’t matter. His actions were absolutely wrong, and unconstitutional! The First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution affirms not only freedom of speech, but also the freedom of association. It completely disgusts me when politicians (who swear an oath to “defend the Constitution from all enemies both foreign and domestic), media, and individuals, decide the Constitution applies only to them and their beliefs and positions. The Constitution, and every Amendment to the Constitution must be treated as a whole and applies to everyone EQUALLY whether or not you like what it says, and every part of the Constitution MUST be afforded equal weight, no matter whether you like it or not!
 
I might not like what might result from the conforming to the constitutional requirements, but I must respect them!

So you are saying these aren't the droids.....

The counter-tactic to this is obvious; just capture one of the baby drones then get Will Smith to fly it back into the mothership.

There is truth to this.  Every older generation does shake their heads and wonder if it isn’t all falling apart.  I heard a remake of Billy Joel’s “We didn’t start the fire” with modern references and it rolled just fine.  
So everyone does it…but some turn out to be right.  I am sure some old guys were sitting in a bar back in 1177 BC or 476 AD having the same conversation, and they were absolutely correct their worlds were about to end.
So where does this leave us.  Well the reality is that humanity above about 125 people is always on the edge.  We keep skirting it and pretending that we are not on free fall pretty much all the time.  We invent distractions and control mechanisms but we all know civilization is about three meals deep.  
So why might this time be different?  Well that is the real question.  My guess is that we have seen a confluence of factors that all signal to a potential significant disruption in the species.  Out last one was really that time between 1914-1945, but a historian 1000 years in the future could very well see us as being in a major social singularity from 1914 to 2100.  We look back and see disruptions that last hundreds of years now but in our own lifetimes we can only see 50, maybe 100 years.  So one could make a coherent argument that we never recovered from 1914 and this has all been part of one big century long disruption.
But one has to admit the last 25 years have been nuts, even by historical standards.  First was introducing global information technology.  That ability is profoundly changing us in ways I am not even sure we have seen the end of.  The fact that the “old guys lamenting” now stretch across every time zone on the planet and can gather on a wargame forum is an example.  Then we had the end of the Cold War and a period of turbulence.  We all watched the wall fall and spent the “peace dividends”.  Smart politicians saw opportunity and went for a “new world order”, “thousand points of light” etc.  We thought that nation states were inviolate and that our main job was to get rich and make sure the bad states didn’t melt down too badly.  All the while chasing the “bad guys” across the planet, but they were all comfortably “non-state”.  9/11 shook the tree hard though.  Frankly I think the last superpower is still trying to figure that one out.  It started two foreign wars which turned into slow burn COIN but it was all low level.  Non-existential stuff.  
Then COVID happened.  Worst pandemic in a hundred years, the impact of that little dance are not anywhere near done being felt.  At some fundamental social levels that experience shook people everywhere.  We start coming out of that and then suddenly hard power, military power between states as a method to resolve dispute jumped back on the table.  We really should have seen it coming in ‘03, the seal was broken but that all had enough of a multi-lateral veneer that we could convince ourselves that it occurred within the global rules based order.  But then Ukraine happens and suddenly “policy and diplomacy by war” is back on the menu.  Worse a great power just did it unilaterally against another sovereign state.  In many ways Ukraine is worse than Taiwan.  Taiwan is recognized as a sovereign nation by only 13 other nations (powerhouses like Haiti).  If it wasn’t for US tub thumping and semi-conductors we could easily write that one off as “a domestic situation”.  Ukraine was a fully recognized sovereign nation in the UN…we are not supposed to invade those anymore.
So that shook things up.  Then Hamas/Israel.  Arguably intra-state but looking very brutal.  Taiwan is on the horizon etc.  So I do not know if this is the End of Days but we are definitely “not ok”.
Finally climate change.  This is a 2-3 times in an entire species timeline threat for the vast majority of life on this planet.  Why so few?  Because 99% of all species that ever existed have gone extinct from them.  So here we are facing that pressure to our front which of left untreated could bottleneck us.
So I cannot say if we are done to be honest but man a lot of lights on the old dashboard are blinking red.

Having been born in Moscow and raised in the culture, this is where my message is coming from; we on this forum have been taking a very logical and almost mathematical approach to calculating Russia's damage and preconcluding it's fate. We need to understand that, while certainly not limitless nor supernatural, there is a certain character of stubborn will and seemingly senseless perseverance in the face of opposition that can be conjured in the collective "Russian" when the circumstances are right. We've talked about it here before. As the war has continued Putin and the state are doing a fair job of galvanizing the public to rally around their identity, but its not all "master strategist Putin" pulling the strings. Microeconomies are popping up, local Russians are manufacturing their own cheese to replace imports, companies are cleverly outmaneuvering sanctions, entrepreneurs are exploiting openings, industries are slowly, painfully adapting and gaining confidence. And as all that goes on the average Russian begins to settle into the "us against them" mentality of besiegement. Early in the war western media called this "Putin's war" and blamed the Russian government. Slowly the messaging has changed, and now we believe every Russian to be responsible for what is happening. While I agree that this is true in a spiritual and philosophical sense, it also drives Russians deeper inward, hardening their resolve and pushing people to close ranks. Unfortunately the more defensive ordinary Russians feel, the more difficult it will be for them to mentally separate the state from the greater identity.
Young people are not excluded from this phenomena, including the bright minds. I can imagine some of the brights coming back home to Russia after living in an undignified mode of "otherness" and "humiliation" in places like Georgia, Armenia, Germany, Turkey, Kazakhstan etc. Having heard the call to return to family and rodina, sprung by the excitement of building something new at home while affirming their identities and standing up with dignity against their opponents.
Your reply to my points on Russian economic recovery make sense, though it's worth pointing out that macroeconomics is one of the lesser precise "sciences". I leave room for fated chance, unintended consequences and human ingenuity to change what looks like a logical outcome to us at the moment.
Of course we've discussed Russia being a pressure cooker and how everything can come crashing quite dramatically, but that's not the feeling in the air that I'm catching at this moment. Excuse me for this post that was less factual and more like pseudo-shamanic reading of my own tea leaves.
Slava Ukraini
 

I will just pick this one.  “Serious preparation”.  Canada is talking about a Brigade in Latvia…under a Liberal government.  Russia’s single biggest loss, beyond all the hardware and credibility, is that it did exactly what it should not have done…it unified the West.  Further it pushed up to overcome our deep apathy.  We did not care back in 2014 when Putin went “I want this”.  Hell we argued about legality etc for years after a soft invasion that took the entire Crimea.  
Move to 2023 - the West no far how it puts its head up its own butt is not going to forget this.  Further, there is too much money to be made ensuring Russia stays in its box.  We spent billions ensuring Ukraine stayed independent.  We will spend billions more to ensure it stay out of the Russian sphere and that Russia stays in that box.  This is everything we should have done back in 2014.  And here is the thing, that strategic corridor won’t matter to that calculus.  
I say all this with confidence because the wheels are already in motion.  Money is being spent…a lot of money.  Russia just put NATO back in business for the next 20 years.  That is done.  Decided.  How is that for sober?
Look guys this isn’t late game rose coloured consolation prizing, I have been saying it since last summer.  Russia lost this war, badly…already.  The blow to their prestige and warfighting machine is pretty bad.  For example, Russian can produce about 200 tanks per year (ya, let’s pretend tanks still matter).  That is over 10 years of expensive production to replace what they lost in this war.  Their military is battered beyond recognition.  Any professional talent they had is pushing up sunflowers all over Ukraine.  What is left is hastily trained and mobilized recruits and that includes the officer Corp.  These are not things one can fix over night…and they are not cheap.
Hey if the UA can do a break out and cut that corridor - fantastic!  But it is not a critical requirement.  Russia was a scary monster and it just got mauled by a minor power supported by about as an ad hoc framework as I have ever seen.
Russia will not recover tomorrow or the next day.  They will remain a threat but one we will contain.  They want dance in South East Ukraine again?  Go for it.  It only gets worse for them over time, not better.  At some point the economics and drug deals with China will sour and they will run out of juice.  At that point we may have other problems if Russia unravels.  But this entire “Invincible Russian Monster Bear” is a myth.  It died at Kyiv.  It died at Kharkiv.  It died at Kherson.  It won’t be resurrected soon.
Now the next big question that really matters: “what are we going to do with the time we have taken?”

I was going for a more mocking angle to be honest.  Since the dawn of time people - usually old people - have somehow hooked whatever social ills they see onto a crisis.  “Moral decline”, “Hippies”, “Homosexuality”, “Women who can vote”!
Human social systems are naturally a mix of progressiveness and conservatism.  And rarely, if ever, does a war start based solely on whatever social issue means most to you.  We did not start wars because “the church” since the Crusades, possibly the Middle Ages - and even then there was a whole lotta money and power at play.  We sure as hell have never started a war over any of the rest of “damn kids these days” stuff.
The West is not going to fall over the obsolescence of religion or LGBTQ issues, or whatever you are worried about.  Why?  Because it didn’t last time with “women voting”, “civil rights” and “rock and/or roll”.  In fact since those End Times, the West has continued it rise in power and wealth.  
If anything does destroy the West it will be power hungry egomaniacs that leverage all that social angst into something really dangerous.  They aren’t doing it because they really care about our church/mosque/raccoon ratios - they are doing it to take more power.  The dismantling of democracy, social divisions that turn cancerous, deep corruption and greed- this is how empires die.  Not because we decide to stop going to freakin church and start this strange new thing called “meditation”.  

It is not worthless I fear, it is bad lessons.  People will walk away with a bunch of factoids about mine breaching systems and suddenly are “experts” around the water-cooler.  From this they can draw all sorts of really bad conclusions.
The biggest reason why mine breaching systems fail is because someone kills them while they are trying to do their job.  Watching that video can easily lead someone to think “well send them better kit” - we saw this with the tanks in spades.  And then we send them better kit and it still doesn’t work.  “Well they must be doing it wrong cause the YouTube guy said…”
The entire point of putting up an information piece is to provide people with the knowledge to make better sense of phenomena.  For this one needs expertise.  We see the death of expertise in modern era.  Anyone with a channel can suddenly be an expert in anything.  For example, retired SF guys with YouTube channels talking about formation level logistics.  They never served in a J4 staff or been trained as a professional logistics officer.  But they rub SF “Ranger” patches and suddenly they know what they are talking about.
This is just misinformation and in many cases is just chasing likes and subscribes.  Problem is that it can easily slide into disinformation and outright fiction.  The worst sin are people like Macgregor who know better but keep spreading false info regardless.
I do not know what to do about it.  I am not a social media expert…but maybe if I did a YouTube channel…
I for one can only try to do the best I can in this little forum in outer rings of the information sphere.  And on this one backwater thread on a tiny wargaming companies back…we can aspire to do a bit better.  The rest of the internet will just have to sort itself out.

“The maths” You barbarian!

At least the X guy had the decency to admit he is a novice.  His analysis is a bit of a mess.  The objectives he lists are really all over the map (literally and figuratively).
I think it has been termed “The Death of Expertise”.  Social media, and now AI, has lowered the cost of information to the point that one no longer needs to demonstrate proof of work.  The problem is that information is not knowledge.  The ability to take information, or as we have gone on about - negative information (things that should be seen but are not), and synthesize it into knowledge based understanding is not something one can do with a Twitter account.  It takes years of study to create the critical analysis frameworks and foundational understanding that allows one to take new information and understand it in context.
We see this “college boy, eh?” type of thinking in vulnerable sectors of society.  Those that were not afforded the opportunity to gain expertise can now appeal that condition.  Further expertise can be wrong - that should probably be the first rule of experts.  In fact an expert will know they are wrong before anyone else.  Being an expert is not about being right all the time, it is about understanding what we know, what we don’t know and why.
So we have people who are facing enormous uncertainty and are compelled to try and solve that.  They form information spheres they trust and then use that to try and understand better…to be more certain.  It is what we have been doing here since Day 1 - world went nuts, we seek certainty in community.  Problem is when a community is built on biases or skewed perceptions.  We have walked that precipice on more than one occasion on this very forum.
In the end, it is not about “shut up and take what I say as gospel”, in fact any community that is doing that is probably toxic.  It is about clear and objective analysis of facts, due diligence in self-monitoring and correction and proof of work in making analysis and synthesis happen.  Everyone and anyone may contribute to this community, but it must contribute.  Signal not noise.  Not for me to judge noise, the meritocracy of the community (and moderators) do that for us.

Ugh, this whole discussion line is starting to sound like info-nihilism, "we can't possible get any truth."  Which is almost always followed up by "so I will insert my own."
 

Guys, gotta get out of your own heads. 
Russian strategic aims:
- Full subjugation of Ukraine, pulling it in as a puppet state a la Belarus. 
- Division and weakening of NATO in order to give breathing room within Russia sphere
- A united greater Russia under a new Czar
I don't care if Poppy Orange gets in and cuts off the taps - that up there is not going to happen without the entire world abandoning Ukraine, and whole lot more to be honest.  Could we snatch defeat from the jaws of victory?  Sure, but it is a reach to see things failing that badly.  Even if we do abandon Ukraine, it is a country of 44 million and really...really...p$ssed off right now.  They will dig in and fight like badgers because they have seen what the alternative looks like. 
After Bucha et al, Ukraine is never going to embrace Russia.  NATO has secured unity and defence spending for at least a couple decades because now there is a threat that isn't a few idiots in white Toyotas in countries we didn't even know existed.  And Russia is a mess, and will likely remain one.  There will be no western normalization with Russia after this, or if there is, shame on us.
US Pol is not the driving factor in Russia achieving its strategic objectives (stated or unstated) in this war.  It is a driving factor in how badly they lose it.

Oh my someone woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.  I was more playfully talking about the pearl clutching and hand wringing "the half empty glass is breaking!!" sentiment, which appears to be spreading.  Long list of posts with that tone have your name at the top going way back, hence why I "pulled you in"...and you never disappoint!
So we have moved from the monolithic invincible Russia specter, to "how long can Ukraine possibly hold out?!"
As long as they want/need/have/can?  I sense you, and many others, are really struggling with the unknowns in all this.  Welcome to war.  It is a collision of certainties that create massive uncertainty.  The RA is a "shattered shell" of what we feared on 21 Feb 23 - you can debate that one all day but it is done.  It will take a decade or more to rebuild what they were shooting for back in the 10s.  They broke it all over Ukraine last year; talk about bad decisions.  But they can Defend - as the old Prussian also said, that part is easier, but it does not get the business done.
So how long can Ukraine "last" really depends on what they are doing.  Can they freeze this conflict in place - yeuup, the RA suicide-fest last winter proved that one.  Can they re-take all of former Ukraine...well, jury is still out.  Can, as a nation, they sustain a war longer than Russia?  Well we will see.  Are we talking low-intensity "we are all dug in and raiding now and again"?  Sure.  Are we talking insanely high intensity combat - well probably not, no one really can.
My main point is that just because you can't get answers you want does not automatically mean the worst is happening.  Based on what I can see (not imagine I am seeing, like fully functioning Russian rail systems pouring thousands of tons of supplies onto fat happy Russian defenders), the West is committed through the Winter at least.  If Ukraine can pull off a breakthrough and regain some momentum, they have a good chance at some serious gains- as we have seen in this war, no one cracks like the RA.
If no breakthroughs happen and all we get is very expensive leg humping, then I expect some difficult political conversations are on the table late-Winter, early-Spring.  Maybe we call it where it stands and everyone wins/loses.  Putin can claim the "greatest Russian victory since Bagration" as he retains an extra 6% of now-blasted and mined wasteland, that cost them 100k lives.  Russia can go back and lick its wounds while trying to figure out who to fend off NATO, who scored Finland and Sweden out of this deal - Russia got a pretty weak China...and the big stuffy animal filled with asbestos that is Iran.  Oh and lets not forget the BFF of North Korea - like being best friends with that weird kid who tortures bugs at recess while touching himself, and everyone tries not to notice.
Ukraine gets to stay Ukraine, starts laying mines - hey look they can do it too! And we wind up with a Korean solution.  Maybe Ukraine does not even get to enter into NATO or EU, but money and alliances will be created because containing Russia matters now - South Korea made it work pretty well and their capital is under gun range of one of the craziest MFs since his Dad.       
https://datacommons.org/place/country/KOR/?utm_medium=explore&mprop=amount&popt=EconomicActivity&cpv=activitySource,GrossDomesticProduction&hl=en
To my mind, that is about as bad it will get, at least as things stand right now.  If the West - especially Europe, cuts Ukraine lose entirely, then this whole show was a complete waste of time as Ukraine will not be able to survive for long without a massive reconstruction/investment effort - we let that happen, well we deserve what happens next. 
I know this is not the war you ordered, sir, but it is the one we got.

You and LongLeftt should start a club.  In other news the RA war machine is pretty much a shattered shell of what it was before the war.  Ukraine has regained most of the territory taken at the outset of this war - right now Russia holds about 6% more of Ukraine then it essentially controlled on 21 Feb 22, and back then what it held was not getting shelacked by Storm Shadows.
Aid continues to flow, although there are tremors - that part is factual.  The UA currently has the operational initiative and continues grinding assaults while RA - wanna talk about horrendous losses.  A lot of people in the West treat war like they are ordering dinner: “An attritional war?  That is not what I ordered!  Waiter!”  But this one is what it is.
Right now the real question is whether or not the RA can be forced to buckle again like it did at Kherson and Kharkiv (everyone forgets that part).  UA keeps trying and we will have to see.  Odds of Russia achieving its strategic aims of this war remain at zero.  A realistic Ukrainian outcome remains undefined as we seem to swing wildly between “Every Russian out of every inch, forever…or we’ve lost” and something short of that we can live with.  That “something” is what all the dying is about I suspect.
So “yes with an if” would be the short answer to the original question from my point of view.  “No with a but” seems to be the other.