Treeburst155

I think it's clear I have enough interest in another CMBO tourney if we take in the new guys. I will be giving this some thought. If you haven't posted yet to this thread, and are interested in an ROW style CMBO tourney, please post. Treeburst155 out.

Hi Boris, I'm afraid not even Mr. Kettler himself knows the answer to that. He will be back online before too long I think. Treeburst155 out.

Ain't it great. It's a wonderful world. Treeburst155 out.

There always has been a chance of panic with the withdraw order. Perhaps they increased it a bit? Your troops shouldn't panic EVERY time they are ordered to withdraw. I'm more interested in this arty question. The manual is not real clear on how you adjust fire. Surely you just adjust to a point very near to the original plot. You just re-affirm the desired target point. Does anyone know about this for sure? If not, I'll have to go into testing mode again. I might as well test out the withdraw/panic percentage while I'm at it. Treeburst155 out.

Um.....that's outside the realm of my "Blue Collar Statistics". Perhaps one of the pros will be along shortly to help you out. If you're real unlucky a whole bunch of them will try to be helpful. In that case, you will end up waiting for several days while they fight it out. Treeburst155 out.

Actually, the AI does get cheated by humans; but the humans are unaware that they have been given this little advantage. I won't get into it right now, but it's in there to keep the AI humble. BTW, pleased to meet you CM AI. I've always called you Roxy. Is that your real name? Treeburst155 out.

Great intro, Joe! Well...it would be if it wasn't such a crushing bore. Penelope, I mean Persephone, would you accept a real photo sent by snail mail, or does it have to be one of these newfangled digitized cyberized thingamajigs produced on expensive cameras that don't even have film? Drop me a line if a REAL photo will suffice. Game Updates The Justicar is being cut down in a grain field by an MG34 while my 20mm rips his Russian wannabe tanks to shreds. IOW, I'm probably losing as usual, but it's too early to tell for sure. Herr Oberst has run into the brick wall we all know as Real Life, thus putting our game on hold for the time being. This is fine with me because my troops were all tired. Hopefully they will be ready for their sprints to the VLs by the time the game resumes. They're vets, so they should recover by then. Mr Spkr is having some trouble holding off my crack French infantry in our CMBO QB because he went heavy on the AT assets. Luckily, I chose to do without armor. Moriarty continues to to apply pressure on my defense with his ever-so-gamey horde of tank hunters. At least the 300mm rocket barrages have stopped, for now anyway. Grog Dorosh has us playing some kind of abomination where my assaulting CONSCRIPTS must march 37 KILOMETERS to get to the flags. He saw fit to give me twenty turns to do it in too. Transport? Not on your life!! The gamey bastiche. Ya'll go away now, ya heah....AND DON'T COME BACK!!! To you lackwit pillocks unfortunate enough to live anywhere but The South, that means Sod Off!! Treeburst155, Squire to Senior Knight More-Arty, Defender of Lost Causes

Now, where was I two days ago, before this thread took over my life? Oh yeah, that's right. I was going to take a nap. Treeburst155 out.

Very interesting, Broken! I'll have to experiment with that some day. Warren, I ran 10 more from each side just for kicks. Human as Germans: 35 German survivors 19 Russian survivors AI as Germans: 38 German survivors 19 Russian survivors Virtually the same. Yeah, this has been a great thread. There's still an interesting thing I might look into someday: The first shot among equal crews in the same vehicles will go to the human player the vast majority of the time if he manually targets, no matter which side he plays. I tested this a bit last night. It's true. Treeburst155 out. [ November 01, 2002, 11:57 PM: Message edited by: Treeburst155 ]

Zukkov, Yeah, you definitely want to manually target in AFV duels. Lt. Kije, Yeah, how about that. I'm probably doing something different than he is. Perhaps I have an outlier result? It would take quite awhile to get a huge number of samples with this test. You have 120 duels from each side right now. Treeburst155 out.

I played Warren's 6-lane scenario 20 times from each side. I targetted manually at every opportunity. Human as Germans: 82 surviving German vehicles 32 surviving Russian vehicles Human as Russians: 74 surviving German vehicles 37 surviving Russian vehicles The best performance for each side occurred while under human control. Treeburst155 out.

Warren, I have your scenario. I also have some questions. How are you counting vehicles that rout off the map? What about crews actually in the act of "bailing out"? If I'm going to be counting survivors I will need to define exactly what it is that constitutes a survivor. It probably doesn't matter if I define the term a little different than you as long as I am consistent throughout all my tests. Can I trap the vehicles on the map, or is freedom of movement something you want to allow? Treeburst155 out.

Ok, I know how to run the test then. How are you defining "alive"? Treeburst155 out.

Warren, Are you tracking abandoned tanks, and attempting to determine the cause of the abandonment? Are you looking at how many non-casualty crewmembers are actually abandoning the vehicles? Are you studying each of the six vehicles individually to determine what has occurred to cause them to abandon? It all seems fuzzy to me, and VERY time consuming. Treeburst155 out.

Lt Kije, At the end of 600 samples the AI percentage was 38.00%. At the end of 1,800 samples the AI percentage was 36.94%. For the human at 600 the percentage was 32.67%. After 1,800 it was 35.11%. Is this change over 1,200 additional samples that unlikely? Treeburst155 out. [ November 01, 2002, 04:15 PM: Message edited by: Treeburst155 ]

Warren, I will run your scenario when I get it. In fact, I'll probably run it to death. Treeburst155 out.

Fighting 220 one minute duels as the Germans, and manually targetting the enemy, I survived unscathed* 80 times. My AI Allied opponent survived the mad minute unscathed* 79 times. Fighting the exact same duels again, but taking the Allied side, and again manually targetting, the AI German survived unscathed* 89 times, while I survived unscathed* 79 times. German side human controlled: German survivors: 80 Russian survivors: 79 German side AI controlled: German survivors: 89 Russian survivors:79 *Unscathed is defined as NO vehicle damage or crew casualties. Crews could be panicked as long as none were casualties. This happened exactly one time. It must have been a penetration with no damage. By this definition an immobilized vehicle, or one with just one crew casualty would not be counted. IOW, they were thrown in with the killed and abandoned vehicles. This probably makes the test less meaningful. Also, there is the fact that there were a few occasions where the duel was still in progress at the one minute mark. I would estimate approx. 5% of the duels were still going after the mad minute, some with immobilized vehicles I'm sure. Treeburst155 out. [ November 01, 2002, 04:17 PM: Message edited by: Treeburst155 ]

Since Warren has not sent me his tests yet, I created one of my own. I know, I know. We want to run the same tests. In the meantime however, here's what I'm doing. 20 isolated firing lanes. T34/85 against captured T34/85, regular crews on both sides, No FOW, tungsten rounds removed from both sides, Range 740 meters, kill chance OK both sides, hit chance 43% for both sides, all units confined to one 20 meter square by terrain. June '44 so Russian regulars will hopefully be as good as German regulars. NO extra forces to alleviate possible morale issues!! I will play the German side and manually target the enemy. I will run only one turn. At the end of the turn I will count the unscathed vehicles on each side. 'Unscathed' will be defined as NO vehicle damage or crew casualties. Crews may button up, be alerted, cautious, or shaken and still be considered unscathed; but they cannot have casualties. Immobilized, abandoned, KO, gun damaged, and bailing crews will not be counted. Reasoning for testing like this: I think whatever happens in the first minute will determine the end results of the battle if it were played out. It is enough to know, IMO, if a side does consistently better in the first minute when played by the AI as compared to a human playing the same side. After a hundred runs as the Germans, I will play the Allies one hundred times, again manually targetting. Treeburst155 out. [ November 01, 2002, 02:17 PM: Message edited by: Treeburst155 ]

Lt. Kije, Yes, the sledgehammer will eventually smash the boulder to dust if swung enough times, even if 33% of the swings miss the boulder entirely. Treeburst155 out.

Warren, Send it my way, and I will add to the database. Email's in the profile. Lt Kije, I was under the impression that at no point in my early testing were the results considered significant inspite of the 5-6% gap. I don't think I ever managed a gap vs sample number situation that would have passed the P factor test.

Lt. Kije, I've been wondering if I made some errors in my earliest test groups. The AI scored its very highest score in the first group of 200. The human scored his very worst score in the second group. I'm a real careful guy however. I only ran 9 groups of 200. Taking each group as a whole, it's not too difficult to imagine the first two groups were unfortunately just the outliers. They weren't very out of whack at all really. It's just that the highest AI scores came at the same time as the lowest human scores by coincidence I think. In any case, the last 1,200 shots showed things to be perfectly even. As for Warren's testing, I think he may have something there with the morale question. Now that I'm satisfied with my test I will study his stuff carefully from the beginning. We have eliminated first shot, and first round hits, as possible sources of AI advantage. Treeburst155 out.

Jarmo, That's an interesting idea. If you throw out the first 600 tests, leaving us with 1,200 samples, the human scored 436 first round hits. The AI scored 437. Too bad I got a couple outliers in the first two groups. I could have stopped testing much sooner. Treeburst155 out.

LOL at Soddball!! Your conclusions are wrong. The AI does not cheat because it doesn't drink beer. You are just bonkers for going into combat drunk. Treeburst155 out.

I find Another Day to be quite interesting from either side. It's especially scary for the Allies in the beginning if they are playing blind IMO. Treeburst155 out.

Boris, John Kettler is out of action for awhile. He informed me, and I forgot to pass the word along. Sorry about that. MickOZ, You are the underdog downunder based simply on Nabla scores achieved during the first round. KR hammered the rest of his section rather thoroughly IIRC. Hopefully he will do the same to you. Don't get me wrong here. I like you. You're a great guy. Really! I just think it's time you Die-A-Lot again since I can't kill you anymore. Go Kanonier! Hehe... Treeburst155 out.