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cyrano01

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  1. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    They were looking for Kuban Cossacks, but there was a mix-up and have recruited Cuban Cossacks instead.
  2. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Heh, look who came! 
    DefMon upoloaded Russian video how D-30 howitzers fire at UKR troops on outskirt of Verbove. But most inteersting thing in this who is doing this. 387th motor-rifle regiment. Mashovets wrote about them in January.
    This is a unit of new-formed 44th airborne division. Division was established in late autumn of 2022 and includes two regiments - 387th and 111th. More interesting, despite division has a status "airborne", it regiments are both motor-rifle. They are usual mobiks and regiments at least on winter of 2023 weren't equipped by VDV "shtat". 387th regiment though got some young officers - graduates of officer military schools as well as some cadre troops from several air-assault and airborne regiments. 
    The second interestimng thing - this division was appointed for Troops Grouping "Crimea" or for reserve of Troops Groupng "Dnepr". So Russians already forced to throw in the battle not only units from  Lyman direction, but from Crimea
    PS. There is an opinion, this is the same battery of D-30, which was hit by UKR arty on other known video.
     
  3. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That's ... one take on it.
  4. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The Sinai Peninsula & the Negev Desert ... which have no oil in the period.
    Palestine, full of those pesky Haganah and Irgun guys who know exactly what to expect from the Germans? And no oil.
    Syria. Yep, some oil.
    But the Italians have. effectlvely, no Oil Tankers ... they lost almost all of the few they had when they foolishly declared war in 1940 and the bulk of them were in allied ports. As it was, they had to ship oil to the DAK largely in ordinary merchantmen in 44 gallon drums!
    And what is the chance that the Oil terminals in allied occupied Syria would be taken intact?
    (and, no, even if they then managed to take the Iraqi oilfields, well, the chances of the Iraq-Syria pipeline being taken intact? Ni! The chances of the Iraqi oilfields being taken intact? Nil.
    Even if theyu did ... there is no rail link between Iraq and Turkey (the Berlin-Baghdad RR was torn up in Iraq after WW1. And the Turkish RR capacity was known to be inadequate even for their own internal use ... and the Deutsche Reichsbahn had inadequate oil tanker cars even for supplying, oh, the East Front.
    As for the Caucasus the single German Oil Unit managed to restore, IIRC, exactly one well in the Caucasus and extract something like 200 bbl per day. Even if they managed more they didn't have enough POL Tank Cars to transport a significant quantity back to Germany by rail!
    Across the Black Sea? Limited Soviet BS Port capacity (and no specialist oil terminals, IIRC) and effectly no German or Romanian or Bulgrian tanker capacity on the BS. Worse, IIRC it was only in 1944 that the Germans actually emplaced a pipeline head of limited capacity way upstream on the Danube, and the extant tank barge capacity on the river was, in any case, inadequate.
    So, no oil from the Middle East/Syria or the Caucasus even if they managed to capture them, not in even the medium term.
  5. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russians TG alarming
    What a "pizdyets" ("completely f..g mess") is happening right now on Kherson direction... Interaction, speed of reaction - absent from the word "at all". The enemy sails free on boats along Dnipro. It conducts rotation, lands diversion groups. I have no words.
     
    Other Russian propagandist in own video offer to issue some terrible about 205th motor-right brigade command, which by his words do anything to eliminate UKR bridgehead near Kozachi Lheri. He named 205th brigade "200-drunken", using playing and similar prononcuation of words "piataya " ("fifth") and "pyanaya" ("drunken")
  6. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks like UKR attack on Novorossiysk on 4th of Aug, almost blocked Russian shipping of oil in Black Sea
    Russian TG posts information of Bloomnerg that after UKR drone attack on Novorossiysk port, export of oil fell down to 100 000 barrels for a day, when before attack in was 600 000 - 800 000 barrels. If in  last week of July three tankers were departed and in first week of August - five, than since UKR attack only one tanker was departed from Novorossiysk.

  7. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Rybar now is telling this was not Neptun or Harpoon, but naval variant of UK Brimstone II missile, having 30 km of range. And not S-400 was destroyed, but S-300 and fuel truck. And allegedly result of the strike filmed UKR UAV Tekever AV5, handed over by Portugal. 
    I wonder, how it possible to launch Brimstone from Willard RHIB %), because I doubt any usual boat like pr.1400 or Island-class or bigger vessel could approach to Crimea on 20-30 km and do not be spotted and destroyed by patrol ships and aircraft. 

  8. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian authorities of Kaluga oblast claim two UKR drones were shot down over Shaikovka airfield. This is the second attack on this airfield for two days. GUR claimed in first atatck Tu-22M3 was damaged, but no evidences yet.

    Airfield near Shaikowka town.

  9. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Tarkhankut cape is a powerful radar post, were newest long-range radar complex 55Zh6M "Nebo-M" was deployed
    In June 2023 were spotted next surviellance radars of this complex:
    RLM-M "Nebo-SVU" (meter range radar) - left on the photo
    RLM-D "Protivnik-G" (decemeter range radar)
    Santimeter radar RLM-S "Gamma-S1" of this complex wasn't spotted, but other radar 39N6E Kasta-2 (3-coordinates decemeter range radar) was present - it's right on the photo
    All these radars are capable to detect any type of targets, including high-speed ballistic and stealth from 40 km on 100 m altitude to 400-600 km on larger altitudes. Its can also track 200 aerial targets with high refresh rate of situation 

  10. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to holoween in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That really wasnt the difficult thing
  11. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian and Ukrainian aren't enough? We have to add french to mix, just ti finish melting my brain?
    Bleep me that sucks, it has a real charge of the light brigade vibe. It is also more proof of the most fundamental tenet if modern warfare, mistakes are BAD.
  12. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Yes a top grade 40mm gun with radar, infrared, and a 99% automatic targeting system can knock down drones in quantity. But as the The_Capt has discussed at length, that vehicle, with that gun, and that targeting system, is going to cost a MINIMUM of five million dollars. U.S./NATO needs thousands of them. given that guns have a relatively short effective range you need one of them for every mech platoon and artillery battery, at least one for every last 5k of a supply run, and, and.... It gets expensive rather quickly.
  13. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Numerous Russian EW assets have own purposes and own spheres of usage. EW is not = "drone supressing" R-330Zh "Zhytel' " doesn't have tasks and capabilities to fight with drones. This is system for SIGINT analizing, supressing of radioequipment, portable satellite comms receivers and GPS devices. 
    It was targeted with special developed UAV "Shark", having other spectre of working frequencies, than commercial Mavic with 2,4/5,8 GHz (though Russians already wrote UKR engineers already can slightly change working frequencies of commercial drones, which reducing effectiveness of anti-drone EW assets and anti-drone rifles)
  14. Upvote
    cyrano01 got a reaction from dan/california in Tactical Lessons and Development through history   
    I'm not entirely convinced on this one. I was going to mention Gordon's 'Rules of the Game' but Hapless beat me to the punch. It's a fascinating insight into how organisational culture interacts with technology to affect operational methods. The level of factionalisation in the pre-WW1 RN is quite imrpessive. 
     
    The other WW1 naval example that springs to mind is the length of time it took the Admiralty to adopt convoys as a defence against the U-Boat threat to merchant vessels. At times there seemd an almost wilful determination not to consider it as a viable approach. I feel there is even less excuse here since convoys have existed in naval warfare since time immemorial; so it wasn't as if any great, conceptual leap of imagination was required.
  15. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Two days ago the video is appeared as Slovenian M-55S was "destroyed or taken out" by direct hit of Krasnopol guided shell. It's turned out the tank survived, and even saved capability of driving. The shell hit in the gunner's sight and beat in a piece of top turret armor. On the video the damage and burning marks can be seen
    So, not each HE shell hit is 100 % destroying of the tank. Top turret armor can in some cases resist to HE shells, but if this shell hit engine compartment from the top, the tank would be at least heavy damaged. Original T-55 has 30 mm of turret's top armor thickness

     
  16. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    You mean like AGsRA?
  17. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    V1 is back baby!!! Can’t keep a good doodlebug down.
  18. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And how many Confederate Generals, or members of the South's government were hung, and/or tortured to death after the war? The slaves were "freed" and within twenty years you would have been hard pressed to tell that the South had lost the war walking down the street in small town Georgia. The legalisms of getting the cotton picked changed, the de facto business of getting it done changed very little. It took us another hundred years, and a large boost from ever more mechanized agriculture to sort it out for real.
    If the South had won there would have been three governments in North America instead of two. I think the vast weight of probability is that this would have made the last ~170 years much worse for almost everyone. At the same time the South never had the slightest intention to occupy the North, their war aims were entirely focused on succession not conquest. 
    Russia had a written plan to kill the entire upper layer of Ukrainian society, and subject the rest to something at least as bad as what China has done in Xinjiang. I argue that these two situations are not actually comparable. indeed the fact the they are not comparable is why the Confederacy was able to accept defeat, however grudgingly. The weird echo of the Civil War in our current politics is a whole different discussion that Steve probably doesn't want us to have on this thread.
  19. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm not the biggest fan of Ben Wallace (although he's one of the better of the Tory party), but on this I think the quote being thrown everywhere rather misrepresents what he said - it's rather more in line with what people on this thread have said that Ukraine can't take western support for granted in the sense that they need to be politically savvy about how public statements can sound to the western public. I.e. don't say stuff and present an attitude that is going to give leverage to the political factions that are rather more pro-Russian. Quoting a BBC article:
     
    Ben Wallace's comments in full
    More now on the latest comments from UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace.
    In his briefing with reporters, he said that Ukraine had to remember it was asking countries to give up their own stocks of weapons.
    “There is a slight word of caution which is, whether we like it or not, people want to see gratitude,” he said. “My counsel to the Ukrainians is sometimes, look, you are persuading countries to give up their own stocks.
    "And yes, the war is a noble war and yes, we see it as you doing a war not just for yourselves but also our freedoms. But sometimes you have got to persuade lawmakers on the Hill in America [US Congress].
    "You have got to persuade doubting politicians in other countries that it is worth it, it’s worthwhile and they are getting something for it. That’s just the reality of it.”
    He said there would sometimes be "grumbles" from US lawmakers, but he insisted that Ukraine would join Nato.
    “The win here for Ukraine is the sort of cultural acceptance that Ukraine belongs in Nato.
    "You have heard the [UK] prime minister say Ukraine belongs in Nato and the word 'belongs' implies it's fate, implies it’s going to happen.”
  20. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think that is only part of the calculus.  China invading Vietnam didn't generate this kind of response.
    other factors
    1.  It is Europe.  Too close to home for NATO
    2. It's impact strategically is much more important to the US and NATO than the consequences of a war in SE Asia.
    3.  The Ukrainian victory at Maidan and continuing to hold out against Russian aggression was a cause the west could support.
    4.  The long term goal of fostering democracy in Ukraine did not have a counter part in Vietnam.
     
    If this had been Russia invading Belarus I don't think there would have been the same western response.  The Ukrainians themselves set the conditions that made this a viable option for the west.
  21. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    More is definitely better, but I suspect the Chinese make ship killing missiles rather faster than this. 
    Britain actually, finally, putting out a contract to install a new line and increase 155 artillery production by a factor of eight. If they had done this a year ago they might have a leg to stand on regarding objecting DPICM to Ukraine. I mean we have only been having the problem since WW1.
    And yet every time, in the first week of the war, shell/munition usage numbers go up the chain to higher command. Every time Pentagon/MOD people faint with shock.
  22. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This is like going to see a Dentist about a heart problem…
    This guy has zero idea what he is on about.  You could try and saturate a breach but you would wind up needing to plough a lane anyway and then prove it.  If you need to do that then signalling to the planet where you intend to breach by wasting thousands of DPICM before for you have to do a breaching operation regardless makes little sense.  
    Surface laid mines maybe but then you have no idea is surface is all that is there so we are back to breaching operations.  There are no shortcuts when it comes to high density minefields - one either has to do a detailed opposed breaching op, or kill everyone who is providing overwatch and covering fire of the things. Take all those cluster munitions and drop them on Russians, far better use for them.
  23. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Artillery of 110th mech.brigade repelled next Russian armored assault on the north of Avdiivka in Vesele village area.
    Avdiivka direction still hot - Russians after small pause continued attacks, moving here the best (by Strelkov opinion) unit of DPR - 1st "Slavianskaya" motor-rifle brigade to southern flank and 136th motor-rifle brigade of RF to northern flank (at least one battalion, because units of this brigade are simultainously involved on V.Novosilka salient). Main direction of Russian attacks here is southern flank, where they concentrated many capable DPR units. Initially Russians/DPR had some advance - about 1,5 km north from Opytne, but UKR counter-attack soon restrored status-quo. On northern flank UKR troops recently pushed back Russians behind the dam near Vesele. 
     
  24. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The two of you have two narratives -
    The Russians are savages who will stop at nothing to destroy Ukraine.
    And
    The West is sitting around and do nothing while the first one happens, and will continue to do so no matter what.
    So if these are true…why hasn’t Russia simply used nuclear/chemical/whatever since day 1?  Why is this war even still happening?  Is Ukrainian resolve and resistance an effective deterrence to strategic nuclear strikes?  
    If the West is so useless and, clearly ready to let Russia do whatever it wants (and you can come read justifications of this right here on this thread)…why do we even still have this thread?  Russias are genocidal savages who are being deterred from escalation…by what exactly?  Because we certainly know it is not the bumbling western powers.
    Of course if this is the case then why are we spending billions to assist Ukraine?  Symbolism? Boredom?
    Look, if you guys want to go bask in narratives that call for bloodbaths and holy crusades/WW3 there is a big ol Internet out there that will tell you exactly what you want to hear.  
    If you want something that resembles a grown up conversation, stick around. But if you are advocating that we all jump on whatever crazy train that seems to float your boat right now: nope.
    What is it gonna take for the West to directly intervene in this war?  You do not want to know.  And frankly this thread won’t matter if that happens because a lot of us will already be dead.
  25. Like
    cyrano01 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The soldier, who dug up his comrade says him at the end: "Now you will have callsign "Mole" %)
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