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Hagleboz

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In essence, dirty bombs aren't that dangerous as you read in the media.
The same could be said for airplanes any time before 9/11, so I take no comfort in that.

The main hurdle is getting enough materials. This is something that AQ, and others, are spending considerable time and money on, so it is only a matter of time. For example, there is a trial in Spain (postponed today) where one of the AQ defendents alledgedly moved around $900,000 on his own. If AQ finds a source it will likely be able to afford the asking price. They also have a very good, long established ability to move people and materials around. Therefore, the means of making a dirty bomb and deploying it are well within AQ's capabilities. We've just been "lucky" that they haven't been able to make one yet.

Once they make one, there is a chance that it won't be that effective. It is true that for maximum effect the bomb has to be well designed, well built, and well placed. It is not known if they have the technical knowledge at this point in time, though we do know that they are seeking it.

The short of it is, given time and opportunity AQ will build a viable dirty bomb or bombs. Given some luck on their part, they will also be able to deploy and detonate them according to their plans. If it is placed in the middle of Wall Street, Time Square, or some other similar place in a big city... the effects will be far worse than a conventional attack. And we already know how bad those can be (there are about a dozen examples from AQ alone).

It's not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. It is not a matter of how ineffective, but how effective.

Steve

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It's not a matter of if, it is a matter of when.
I agree with that assessment, nuclear/dirty bombs are the next frontier in terrorism and it's only a matter of time before it happens. No one knows if the "when" is tomorrow or 20 years from now, but when it does happen, I fear the resulting shock waves will be several degrees worse than what happened after 9/11.
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