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From my point of view,

If the USA had decided not to embargo Japan it would have had two effects on the war;

1st. Japan could have focused its all of its forces against China and Russia.

2nd. The USA war production would have greatly increased as it would not be fighting a two front war.

Thus;

USA does not Embargo Japan = NO Siberian Transfer + Greater USA Production & the USA can send more MPPS the UK via merchant ships.

A balanced option from my point of view.

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Japan had ALREADY decided to expand southwards - the embargo sped up the final decision, but it did NOT create it.

So the actual effect of a lack of embargo would be to delay Japanese entry into the war, but it would still be in the same direction - ie southwards, and NOT into Russia.

John they had plenty of "clues". they knew well that they needed resources - they had to go either north into Siberia, or south into Indo-china and hte east Indies. the defeat of the army in Manchuria in 1939 discredited teh "strike north" group, and hte Navy had been planning operations to the south all through the 1930's.

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I've never claimed to be an expert on the Japanese mind.

the content of their plans is now well known - and no-one anywhere in December of 1941 envisioned nuclear weapons ending the war so it is only with 20/20 hindsight that there they look "clueless".

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From what ive read the japanese believed(what a huge mistake)that if they built up a outer ring of island forts that america wouldnt want to attack because of the loss of life.They(like the germans both being wrong)believed in thier racial superiority.Remmeber that there is a fair amount of evidence that the japanese also exploded an atomic bomb in korea just around the time the war ended.So if america had left japan alone who knows what would have happened.

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Originally posted by jon_j_rambo:

Dude, I'm just trying to say, what makes you the resident expert on the Japanese mind? Their plan looked clueless.

Wasn't clueless. The Dutch were easy pickings.

Was just they had to figure out someway to get past the Phillipines.

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Maybe the USA would have had a different approach to Japan if the UK would have conquered neutrals in 1939 / 1940?

Wouldn't this have been a reason to settle down with japans demands for a better place at the sun?

Germany without minors & the UK with conquered neutrals would have been a balanced fight, probably some kind of a stalemate. If so, maybe there would have been some kind of arrangement between the USA & Japan (take minors, guard communist russia, fight Mao, help Kiang-Tshaishingfangwellisaiditeventhoughiforgothiscompletenameohthesedifficultchinesenames?

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the evidence that Japan detonated some sort of atomic device seems to mainly come from Nth Korea, and is aparently part of justifying it's own nuclear weapons programme.

eg see here

For a more rational assessment see Wiki article

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