Broken Allied Strategy, 100% certified

[Avatar]

Well, I guess I need Terif to give the final stamp on this, but I will give those who wish to try it the complete strategy. It is indeed broken, there is no hope for the Axis to capture Paris before 1941 with this strat. 100%, no joke. I've tested it 10 times, there is absolutely nothing the axis can do. I invite you to test this out in hotseat against yourself, or against anyone else. This is assuming you give yourself the 200 bid points as UK. You need those points to pull this off. Perhaps not, but everything i did is with these extra pts.

Turn 1, Axis:

Polish Breakthru, ping Denmark down to five, move over regular forces to invade LC (1 arm, 1 army, 3 air, 2 corps, of course) note: very standard opening for axis

Turn 2, Allies:

Invade LC. Transport UK corps, ping Brussels. Attack Brussels from S hex with Fr Army. Move Corps (or army) into LC forest hex. Move Fr Army into hex SE of Brussels. Do not attack with this army unless you've actually got a really good chance of capturing Brussels (all my games i don't even capture LC).

Operate egypt corp next to Beirut. The following turn, move towards iraq, but don't declare war until the following turn. Italy won't be in the war until 3rd axis turn (turn 6).

Disband Fr Air, buy 2 Corps

Do not disband any fr navy. Use 1-2 cruisers to help RN to hunt atlantic subs. Move the rest of the Atlantic fleet towards east med. I prefer at least 1 fr cruiser and BB. I also move in an extra RN BB and CL to help out. Move Marseilles BB into west Med, join up with Egypt RN east Malta.

Move the Air on Malta S of London. Move Main Air on UK to London. Disband Bomber, Disband any BB (your choice, you NEED the cash). Buy Monty, put him around London. These 2 Air will intercept first LW attacks on your Fr Army SE of Brussels. Actually, these 2 RAF units are the secret 'key' to this strategy. You wouldn't believe how much damage they cause over the long run to the LW. With Iraq oil, UK can reinforce and, more often than not, still have money for a corp purchase.

Move Algiers corp to Marseilles on the 1st turn by using Gibraltar BB to allow it to move there in one move. Move Gibraltar to Marseilles, on 2nd turn, move the fr corp N 1 hex, move the UK corps to replace it. This provides 2/3rds of the barrier against Italy. You'll need to buy another corp the turn after Italy comes in to cover the hole of course.

Move the Canadian units (go Canada!) to France.

Turn 3, Axis

Axis will 100% (why wouldn't he?) try to destroy Fr Army SE of Brussels. He has around 70% of doing so. It surviving simply buys the allies another turn. His Air will attack it, your UK air will intercept and cause full damage. If he succeeds and destroys it, he'll move in. Poland could/should fall, along with Denmark on this turn. Any extra time that they survive is extra time for the allies.

Turn 4, Allies

Get ready to invade Iraq. Move your fleets in the med if they aren't there already. These fleets are the noose around Italy's neck. If he doesn't move his fleets out of base, he's not a threat, therefore germany's doing the brunt of the work, and Iraq won't be threatened, so you can get your oil , plus you won't lose Malta, Algiers, Gibr, Alexandria etc... In all of my games, I had around 8-10 units in the Med against Italy's 5. It's a one-way battle without the LW.

Of course, this turn, and the following ones, all you're going to do as France and UK is build corps, and put 'em in line near Brussels. With the 2 UK Air causing much unhappiness among the LW pilots, you'll find that the Wehrmachts offensive (ala Terif) is not such a steamroller. You're getting twice as much money as Germany, and can put 1-2 corps in line, while germany is fighting a narrow front, forced to use precious air against a tough RAF. He has to fight hex by hex, and the time taken to do so is incredible. The earliest I beat myself was January 41, after taking a ent. 6 Fr Army out of paris, and every hex between LC and paris was with a corps.

There's no hope, there's no 'alternative' strategy for the axis, there's nothing. Axis only gets plunder for Pol and Den. He's choked from the very start, and Italy's early entry doesn't do anything.

The only thing i haven't tried is a full invasion from the south, with LW and all. I haven't tried it because it seems like an even worse proposition than the north.

- Avatar -

ps: terif, if you think you can prove me wrong, let me know

ps #2: i moved to germany 2 months ago (g/f), nice place. it's not quite canada, no bacon (only uncut 'speck'), tabacco sold in vending machines on the street(i saw 2 10 yr olds buying), and tv here is NOT up to my standards.

[ August 01, 2004, 03:06 PM: Message edited by: Avatar ]

[Kuniworth]

Avatar; very interesting thoughts.

About Germany; they got lots of interesting war-museum to watch though

[Terif]

Avatar:

I am sure your strategy works against every unexperienced player and even against too aggressive veteran players - but not when axis player is cautious, knows what he´s doing and more important: doesnt surrender too early.

The problem with your strategy is, that it is extremely short term oriented. If you can crush Axis in France you have won, if Axis reach Paris (even if it takes until 1941...)you have lost. Allies will never recover from all those losses and disbanding their UK ships (and a Sealion is also a very attractive option...).

We already played two games with you as Allies were you surrendered after 7 and 11 turns . And a lot of other players already tried similar extremely aggressive french defence strategies against me - it never worked .

However, you are expert for an extremely aggressive french defence and obviously love the short games (in contrary to me ) - I am sure you will win (and have won) with this (or a similar) strategy against everyone who has no endurance and surrenders after the first losses .

But when axis player continues to fight and knows what he is doing Allies will most likely loose. At this stage of the war Axis has enough units to crush every resistance on the ground - it might be expensive and will need some time (maybe until 1941), but Paris will fall and with this strategy thats also the end of the UK.

[zappsweden]

Well, I think there is only one way we can solve this dispute then. Conventional duel with pisto..., lol

Seriously, solution is that Terif backs-up his words and Avatar backs-up his strategy and they play a game of SC about it.

Terif (Axis) vs Avatar (Allies) with a full AAR and some screenshots (particularily from France 1940, use the print screen button) would be very nice to see.

Proof your points Gentlemen.

You have talked the talk, now lets see you walk the walk.

p.s I assume Avatar has not been defeated with this strategy in its present (improved?) shape, but I do not know so fill me in if I am wrong.

[ August 01, 2004, 05:53 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[jon_j_rambo]

Avatar, bring you're strategy on. Terif is the #1 player in the world, I'm #2.

[jon_j_rambo]

Note: I've cracked Terif a couple of times, & introduced the only world wide move (RRI). I will be taking care of Terif on my next vacation time

[zappsweden]

Originally posted by jon_j_rambo:

Avatar, bring you're strategy on. Terif is the #1 player in the world, I'm #2.

I am the best. I kicked Kuni ass and now we will continue our half-finished and i will kick your too Rambo.

I will be 2-0 with 2 knockouts in my summer comeback after tonight.

[ August 01, 2004, 06:53 PM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[zappsweden]

Originally posted by jon_j_rambo:

Note: I've cracked Terif a couple of times, & introduced the only world wide move (RRI). I will be taking care of Terif on my next vacation time

Truth is Rambo, your strategy was too good so we had to ban it. Rambo Rome Invasion is the only invented strategy with no real counter. Salute!

[jon_j_rambo]

Zapp, you're not in a league! Hey, speaking of leagues, Avatar join:

http://www.myleague.com/iscl/

ISCL = International Strategic Command League. PanzerLiga is my language of choice This is a simple, no non-sense competitive league.

[Kuniworth]

Originally posted by zappsweden:

I kicked Kuni ass and now we will continue our half-finished and i will kick your too.

I gave up that's true. And it was only because of my failure to understand the air-war. But thing were looking good for Axis in that game so I would not say you kicked my ass, Zapp.

[Curry]

Avatar, very interesting.

I will have to try it out. The one flaw that I see though is a sealion. Sealions are not tried enough because the "cookie cutter" has become so successful. But once a player sees and realizes what you are doing and the strategy gets known I would think that a Sealion would be a fair counter.

Also, The Italians still could counter in the Med with the help of the Luftwaffe once France fell even if it falls late. Even if you dont get all the minors I would think if you just hold in place with Russia you can take the minors.

Perhaps not. I would love to see this played against Terif and see what counter he would do.

[Curry]

PS - not many people are giving the UK 200 bonus points. I surely wouldnt and I am not sure even Terif gives the UK that many bonus points.

Safer to give Russia more points than the UK in my humble view.

[Terif]

Hmm, this strategy is not really new - other players already used it, especially in the old times where UK got a lot more mpps than today (300-400 were possible when the 1:8 and 1:10 systems were still in use) and they could achieve Montgomery without disbanding navy (including LC gambit turn 1...).

No need to demonstrate it again - I already did it at least half a dozen times (also when LC turn 1 was successful and Allies had the plunder too)...Not to forget I prefer good and long games where I know they will not be over within the next 10 turns

Ok, to get into details why this strategy will fail :

Economically:

UK gets 135 +30 (Iraq)=165 mpp/turn

France 115 mpp

on the other side:

Germany 130+16+30(LC)+10(Iraq)=186 mpp/turn

Italy 115 mpp

So it´s Allies 280 mpp/turn vs Axis 301 mpp/turn

Germany has more than enough land units, so it can use all mpps for airbattles (even more mpps than UK).

Tactically:

After Allies attacked LC, Germany can move its tank into Brussel and attack the army SE of Brussel from 4 sides + 3 AFs. In average they will make a damage of ~14 strength points when positioned correct, so only with extremely high luck the french army will survive...in the next turn Germany has 2 good attack hexes, so now at the beginning it can kill one enemy unit/turn without much problems.

Strategically:

UK uses all its mpps for airfleets/Montgomery - so there are no additional corps for France.

France can nearly buy only one corps/turn, but one corps is the minimum loss/turn for Allies. Usually Germany can even breakthrough the thin line with a fast and decissive attack, cause with the extended front at the beginning there is only a one hex allied frontline.

Maybe Allies can hold the line in LC with a lot of luck and good battle rolls. But even then Axis will advance hex by hex towards Paris - after Poland/Denmark surrendered, destroying 2 corps/turn, speed increasing when the front is widening...

When Allies move their naval units in the Med, they can perhaps prevent the Italians from taking it over - but instead the german subs will be raiding in the Atlantic (not to forget: some ships are needed to protect the carriers in the battle of France + disbanding some of them). There are not enough ships to do everything.

In this case Italy can also use all its ressources for France and help Germany with some cannon fodder units. Germany will not get the plunder from LC (~300 mpp), but they dont need a third HQ in this case (saves ~480 mpp) and can buy an AF instead.

AND: USA and Russia dont like DOWs at LC and Iraq. I.e. USA is out of the war for a long time and Russia also delayed (no Axis DoW at LC). So its no real problem if Axis needs some more time to get to Paris.

Summary:

- In this strategy Axis gets more mpps/turn than Allies

- they will reach a good starting position west of the rhine river in their first counterattack (or with very bad luck in the 2nd)

- after this they can kill 1-2 units/turn + can afford the airbattles with the royal airforce + carriers, Allies should not be able to build enough units to close the gaps (then war will be over soon..). Even if they can, Axis will move closer to Paris with each turn and finally conquer it.

- at this time Allies will have spent all their mpps for France and most likely will have lost some carriers (+eventually some ships in the Med battles and/or UK AFs near London). Perfect starting situation for a Sealion. Or in a long game: USA is out of the war until Barbarossa, UK has to recover, so there will be no second front and Axis still has enough time to prepare for Barbarossa (+ a one front war...) even if they need till spring 1941 for France.

[ August 01, 2004, 08:35 PM: Message edited by: Terif ]

[jon_j_rambo]

Avatar --- Nice try, we appreciate the effort. I won't write a novel like Yoda...but to sum it up: Bring it on!

[Kuniworth]

Hm I just tried this tactic against Waltero. I find it hard to defend Iraq if axis deploy a luftwaffe in Baghdad and go after your supplies combined with a march from Libya towards alexandria.

[ August 02, 2004, 04:35 AM: Message edited by: Kuniworth ]

[Sombra]

Originally posted by jon_j_rambo:

Avatar, bring you're strategy on. Terif is the #1 player in the world, I'm #2.

Many contenders for the number 2 spot. Rambo if you are the Nr.2 I throw my hat in the ring. :cool:

Still no other contenders for the Nr.1 position

[Sombra]

@ Avatar: your strategy in short is:

- Break the axis in France

Disadvantages:

+2 corps for LC for the axis + throwing away 1 french army which will be destroyed nearly always in turn 2.

+2 Dows for the allies + -1 DOW for axis (You won´t see the US in this game for a long long time

+ Italy enters very early in the war. => Italy will get very strong.

If he hides in ports until the end of France you will have a hard time securing the med as allies. (Italy can help the axis , buy aircraft, buy subs, buy GL tech etc.).

If you sent to early to many ships to the med. The german subs have a field day. If you sent them to late the itlalian navy can operate around in the med.

-------------------------------------

Resumen: You will stop the axis in France but you will do it with airpower of the allies only,

NO HQ for FRance. IF axis has some good combat rolls early on you will not have time to build up even a corps defense in France. Your defense crumble fast.

On the other hand you can perhaps take the LC as allies?

On the long run rating the strategy (without playiugn it yet) I would give it 30-40% chance of stopping the axis in France. This can be a very good ratio for the allies. Either way the game is over fast. If the axis get rolling and reach Paris the game is over for the allies. I

[Avatar]

Geey, really didn't expect this much output, least of all from the master

Ok, Terif, don't know how to say this, but, you're wrong. We have to play a game so I can prove it to you.

1st: You need at the most to disband 1 RN BB. That's hardly sacrificing against a Sealion. It's nothing actually. Don't argue that it's this reason that UK will be open to invasion, because they will not.

2nd: Destroying the Fr Army on Turn 2 is not ~14 damage from the 4 units. Remember, you have 1 armor, 1 army, 2 corps + 3 air to attack it with. The armor does ~3 damage, the 3 air do ~5-6 damage (RAF will limit 1-2 of the air's damage), the army has ~1 damage, and the corps ~0 damage. that's ~9-11 damage. You test it out, you'll see what I mean. Anyhow, this army surviving is NOT a requisite for a successful french defence.

3rd: You have 3 Maginot hexes to defend + 3 the 3 hexes in LC (SW of Brussels, S, and LC forest Hex). That's 6 units you need, PLUS 2 to defend right behind the S hex, because that's the line weakpoint. French start with 5 armies (1 presumed to be destroyed) so 4 armies, 3 corps (you built 2 with dismantled Air) and 1 BEF corp). That's the line. French can build a corp almost every turn thereafter. UK can also build corp almost every turn. And Terif, what losses for the Allies? I'm not losing anything I wouldn't normally lose. I'm losing a couple brit corps, plus most of the french army. I'm not losing those RAF units, and I'm losing only 1 BB to disbanding, which I may get back as a Free French BB! The german subs in Atlantic untouched? I think not. You can send the northern fleet of 2 carriers + 2 BB's, and 1 Fr CL after them. Yeah, you might lose something, maybe, but at least you kill them. Actually, 1 weakness of this strategy is that there's virtually nothing to oppose the german baltic fleet from coming out of hiding, but they can hardly play a part anyways.

4th: Can LW(3-4 air) and Wehrmacht really destroy 1 corps a turn early on? Yes and No. That RAF coming out of London really, and I must emphasize really, damages the LW. It damages those attacking LW so much sometimes that they often don't do 2 because of their readiness drop. Often, they even do 0. Remember also that the defending ground unit can often do ~1 damage to attacking air unit, so that must be factored in as well. On average, LW is taking considerably more damage than RAF. The fact is, you can't keep attacking relentlessly in the LC with LW because they need reinforcements every now and then. Getting these replacements lowers their XP and buys the allies more time. Manstein would help, but he costs so much that buying him means 1 less LW air unit. It's win-win for allies in any case.

5th: Economic balance sheet:

Germany + Italy: 301 Mpp's a turn (186 + 115)

Britain + France: 280

Now, what you don't see is this: Germany's LW is NOT, nor can be, supplemented by any Italian Air. German army attacking LC (mostly french) is NOT being helped by Italian army. As a matter of fact, Italy is useless in this early conflict. Like I said before, the only power it has is it's navy, which with said strategy, is neutralized.

So, now that you realize that it's only 280 mpp from UK/France against 186 from Germany, there's a serious tilt in favor of the allies here. Germany DIDN'T get Belgium plunder, plus only ~600 from Denmark, Poland. Economically, allies are much more at an advantage. French can use it's MPP's to support/create army units, while UK can support air, plus occasionally build a corp. Italy's piddling 115 won't allow for an HQ/Air unit for another 7-8 turns at least. Maybe Italy can buy a sub unit or two in the same time, but that's about it. Italy plays no part in LC, let's fact it.

6th: Big sacrfice in this game for allies is significant drop in US readiness, 100% I agree. BUT WHO CARES??? It's the USSR that really matters, and it's readiness is virtually untouched. Invading Iraq doesn't affect the situation because Axis ALWAYS waits to invade Iraq after USSR(and US) has joined anyhow! Only LC invasion slows down USSR entry by ~2 turns. Big deal. I've even declared war on Ireland and gotten US readiness to -30%. So what? By the time Germany finishes with france in early 41 (maybe even later), US readiness is rising, and Axis have very little time to do anything. RAF is strong. Brest is fortified, LW is damaged, Italy's fleet may or may not be sunk. Africa therefore easier to defend. So, assuming all this, Axis has around 12-15 turns to: Save for research, repair units, invade Sweden, Norway, Vichy, Spain, Greece?, Yugoslavia, and take the Brits out of Egypt. Against any veteran allied player, there's only the smallest chance for the axis, like it SHOULD be

Final comments: I would really like to see this strategy stand up against Terif. I swear to god Terif, I've really really tried to play the Axis like you. And i am complementing you when I say I imitate your every move.

[zappsweden]

Zapp Casino gives the following odds in a Terif (Axis) vs Avatar (Allies) game (assuming 180:900:3600).

ODDS (Terif is Axis, Avatar is Allies):

Avatar to win 2.5

Avatar to win and hold Paris 5.5

Terif to win 1.6

Terif to win by sea-lion 12

[ August 02, 2004, 03:22 AM: Message edited by: zappsweden ]

[Terif]

We will see...

A game is scheduled for tomorrow - Avatar has a good motivation, thats worth a game

Problem is, Allies have only a small chance to stop Axis in France if they really use everything there (including carriers). Otherwise Axis can walk through like usual or even easier with Italy on its side and the allied extended front in LC . In this aspect there is no real difference to a normal aggressive french defence with UK air/HQ.

So if Allies want to stop Axis in France, they have to sacrifice their carriers - if they cant stop them, UK is too weak after these battles to prevent a Sealion. If they dont sacrifice them, Axis can conquer France nearly in the normal time frame (against an aggressive french defence) and then they have endless time (no USA, Russia delayed) to prepare for Barbarossa and UK still lost a lot of mpps during the battles - and not loosing any UK air is unlikely, Germany has enough AFs to kill the units that are not protected by London when they moved them in striking range - without fighting against the carriers, they can have at least 5 AFs.

Italy is not neutralized, they can provide corps for the LC front, so Germany doesnt need own corps to fill gaps and its 2 HQs really support only the heavy combat units. Yes, Germany might have higher air losses than UK, but they have more mpps for repairs, so it is no problem. Without a HQ, France can not resist on the ground and they will loose their units one after the other witout doing much damage to the german units (perhaps a strength point here and there). Yes, at the start they can build a 2 hex frontline, but chances are good they can not replace the losses fast enough .

Maybe UK can build sometimes a corps, but then Germany also had not so much losses so it can increase it´s air power instead of reinforcing - so building corps is up to France: 1 corps/turn, losses should be higher after turn 5-6 when Germany can bring more ground units into battle.

So in the end: perhaps Ialy can not help very much at the start in France, but the french mpps also dont help the Allies cause they will be destroyed without much damage in return.

BTW: Longterm Iraq is a nice birthday present to Axis. Allies have no mpps to send additional units to Africa for a defence during the french campaign - + Italy is building up..- so after the fall of France, Egypt + Iraq will soon provide their mpps to Axis .

[Sombra]

Please an extensive AAR

[Avatar]

Terif might definitely see things that I don't. He's right, you can attack that lone RAF unit outside London, but that requires moving LW units into range. At first, He cannot enter LC because of the restricted narrow front, and later, when it does widen, he will be able to move 1 or 2 into range. It will be interesting to see what he will do. Playtesting against myself, I found moving LW around usually produced very little results. The RAF S or SW of London is ent 2, and the LW will need that unit to intercept, and then hit it with (at least) 2 other LW units. However, the RAF in London will intercept one of these and no doubt that unit will be heavily heavily damaged. It's definitely tight. The lack of Manstein will not allow weakened LW units to do much damage, and so the RAF will be at advantage almost the entire battle. The attacks out of London will force intercepts, and hence the LW will rarely, if ever, be at full strength. Italian Corps in LC provide nice targets as well .

Post-France (assuming Paris falls in early-mid 41) doesn't look bad at all. A lot better than it normally should.

1st, Italian Navy should be damaged/partly/totally destroyed, so moving some remaining 2-3 RN units back to the east med is advisable. Then it requires LW support to get you out of iraq. Brest, possibly even Bordeaux, should be garrissoned and entrenched early on to annoy axis even further. Another RAF unit would be great, making 3. You should have at least 2-3 corp left over from france, and 1-2 could go back to UK, another 1-2 into east med. Most of the LW will be weak and inexperienced(HUGE!) after France, and rebuilds will be required. German ground units will be weak as well after months of campaigning (little $ as 99% goes to LW) and also need some eventual rebuilding.

I wouldn't sacrifice anything needlessly, the war is not over yet. France should fall, and UK must be prepared. RN must be in shape and some corps still alive. US won't be in the war until end of 41, beginning 42, but Russia will be around in time. Germany won't have nearly as many mpp's for everything, and the war will be uphill from then on. I rate this strategy as the most 'realistic' because it gives the allies the upperhand (with the bid).

note: If Terif proves me wrong, I'll crawl back into my hole

[Kuniworth]

Avatar; what if axis dow LC on turn 1?

[Sombra]

Avatar, some time ago there was a thread if it is possible to break the normal (turn 2 )LC gambit against an experienced player. Friendly fire (quite a good player) tried to defend himself and was not able to stop the axis in the end.

Your tactic combines for me (IMHO) the worst of the LC gambit without its advantages

-No plunder from the low countries

-Foothold for the axis already provided

-Early war entry of Italy.

Well we will see how far you get. My best advice is start already digging your hole.

[Avatar]

Kuni, if he DOW's turn 1.... hahahahahahahahaha

Sombra, I do see your point, and it seems like a weak position, but that's only because it seems that way.

1, No plunder for LC? Allies never get plunder anyways (unless it's turn 2 LC, which Axis never allow).

2. The huge advantage is that the Axis DONT get a huge foothold in LC. The time you buy at the frontlines=time for other hexes to entrench. With this strategy, and it's narrow front, axis can only crawl forward, and a lot of the time, not forward at all. But, it's this in combination with the 2 RAF+Monty which buy you the time. If LW needs time to reinforce, then it can't attack, hence Wehrmacht can't advance = more time lost. LW HAS to reinforce (every 3 turns), or it will be bled dry. Damage from superior RAF, and damage from ground units means weak weak weak LW units. Try it out. Move the Malta Air to S london and buy Monty. Invade LC. Try it out, play both sides, you'll see what I mean. Also, make occasional attacks with the London air, it does extra damage to any interceptor.

3. Early war entry of italy by 3-4 turns, bah, who cares. with Fr Navy and RN in Med, there's nothing for Italy to do. He's only getting 115mpps, so ~500 extra in total than normal. Well, delaying axis 6+ turns is worth more than 500 isn't it? Definitely. Anyways, tomorrow at 9am Terif and I have our match. I promise to give a detailed match AAR. I'm very interested myself in seeing what he can do. My guess is that he'll try to destroy that 2nd RAF unit outside London, but I won't let him