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Teufel

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  1. Upvote
    Teufel reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ahhhhh, so maybe there is a plan. 
    Go to Rostov, take all the army supplies there.  Having gone on tirade a couple days ago about the war being a lie, maybe his next move will be to say to MOD troops "side w me and you can go home".  That's gotta play well w the mobiks.  There are no words for how happy I am right now.  This is all quite lovely for UKR so far.
    And maybe, as stated by folks above, he has some co-consipirators in Moscow?  But how does that all play out considering he's as far from Moscow as possible inside RU.
    Of course, Putin probably has tons of spies in wagner so gonna be interesting....
  2. Upvote
    Teufel got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Followed discussions while back and we can’t know for sure what type of material of construction these particular mines are. Most likely PMA-2 rather than the old TM-series models, also the mines will show clear differences in heat signatures in relation to the ground they placed in.
    The_Capt pointed out depth being factor and sure is, buried deep enough the heat transfer will not occur although very hot ambient temperatures. Direct sunlight will not be factor. Timing of imaging is then not important (1h after sunset) as soil has poor specific heating capacity, approximately 5x lower than water. Dry soil thus retains heat to lesser extent and cools faster with lower radiation of energy when air temp starts to drop than wet soils. The same is not true for solid plastics even less for metals, containing zero water, their properties depend only on subunits (and color of course but that is for heat transfer not specific heating capacity).
    Most common plastics have heating capacities 5-10x that of soil, retaining higher levels of energy per volume unit. They will also radiate heat stronger than soil if surrounding temperature drops quickly. This is no attempt of physics lectures and will leave it at this. Rather input on the phenomenon why thermal imaging may work in practice. But as The_Capt said, can't be isolated by soil as the poor heating capacity will rather function as isolation than enable heating of the mine. So not universal method for all scenarios.

    Regardless of reason the fact that it is possible to detect by simple available means such as thermal imaging from drones is significant discovery. Not just for the ongoing conflict but even more so for what comes afterwards. De-mining Eastern Ukraine will be tall task with with any given method. This for me is one of those moments of epiphany when seeing really smart applications of cheap standard equipment. 
    Regardless if was on purpose or by chance the discovery is nothing short of ingenious. Ukrainians once again show examples of simple, cheap but very effective methods of making difficult tasks much easier. No silver bullet to the mine problem but rather new tool to add for current and future challenges involving mines. Let’s see if it’s one off or if they can map other regions with more clay or slit also. Very interesting nevertheless.
  3. Upvote
    Teufel got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Followed discussions while back and we can’t know for sure what type of material of construction these particular mines are. Most likely PMA-2 rather than the old TM-series models, also the mines will show clear differences in heat signatures in relation to the ground they placed in.
    The_Capt pointed out depth being factor and sure is, buried deep enough the heat transfer will not occur although very hot ambient temperatures. Direct sunlight will not be factor. Timing of imaging is then not important (1h after sunset) as soil has poor specific heating capacity, approximately 5x lower than water. Dry soil thus retains heat to lesser extent and cools faster with lower radiation of energy when air temp starts to drop than wet soils. The same is not true for solid plastics even less for metals, containing zero water, their properties depend only on subunits (and color of course but that is for heat transfer not specific heating capacity).
    Most common plastics have heating capacities 5-10x that of soil, retaining higher levels of energy per volume unit. They will also radiate heat stronger than soil if surrounding temperature drops quickly. This is no attempt of physics lectures and will leave it at this. Rather input on the phenomenon why thermal imaging may work in practice. But as The_Capt said, can't be isolated by soil as the poor heating capacity will rather function as isolation than enable heating of the mine. So not universal method for all scenarios.

    Regardless of reason the fact that it is possible to detect by simple available means such as thermal imaging from drones is significant discovery. Not just for the ongoing conflict but even more so for what comes afterwards. De-mining Eastern Ukraine will be tall task with with any given method. This for me is one of those moments of epiphany when seeing really smart applications of cheap standard equipment. 
    Regardless if was on purpose or by chance the discovery is nothing short of ingenious. Ukrainians once again show examples of simple, cheap but very effective methods of making difficult tasks much easier. No silver bullet to the mine problem but rather new tool to add for current and future challenges involving mines. Let’s see if it’s one off or if they can map other regions with more clay or slit also. Very interesting nevertheless.
  4. Upvote
    Teufel got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Followed discussions while back and we can’t know for sure what type of material of construction these particular mines are. Most likely PMA-2 rather than the old TM-series models, also the mines will show clear differences in heat signatures in relation to the ground they placed in.
    The_Capt pointed out depth being factor and sure is, buried deep enough the heat transfer will not occur although very hot ambient temperatures. Direct sunlight will not be factor. Timing of imaging is then not important (1h after sunset) as soil has poor specific heating capacity, approximately 5x lower than water. Dry soil thus retains heat to lesser extent and cools faster with lower radiation of energy when air temp starts to drop than wet soils. The same is not true for solid plastics even less for metals, containing zero water, their properties depend only on subunits (and color of course but that is for heat transfer not specific heating capacity).
    Most common plastics have heating capacities 5-10x that of soil, retaining higher levels of energy per volume unit. They will also radiate heat stronger than soil if surrounding temperature drops quickly. This is no attempt of physics lectures and will leave it at this. Rather input on the phenomenon why thermal imaging may work in practice. But as The_Capt said, can't be isolated by soil as the poor heating capacity will rather function as isolation than enable heating of the mine. So not universal method for all scenarios.

    Regardless of reason the fact that it is possible to detect by simple available means such as thermal imaging from drones is significant discovery. Not just for the ongoing conflict but even more so for what comes afterwards. De-mining Eastern Ukraine will be tall task with with any given method. This for me is one of those moments of epiphany when seeing really smart applications of cheap standard equipment. 
    Regardless if was on purpose or by chance the discovery is nothing short of ingenious. Ukrainians once again show examples of simple, cheap but very effective methods of making difficult tasks much easier. No silver bullet to the mine problem but rather new tool to add for current and future challenges involving mines. Let’s see if it’s one off or if they can map other regions with more clay or slit also. Very interesting nevertheless.
  5. Like
    Teufel got a reaction from Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Friends,
    First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion.
    Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms.
    There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammunition dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but in my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. 
    Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we?
    Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians.
    To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later?
    Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month.
    Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. 
    All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. 
    Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”.
    Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts?
    Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). 
    As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD?
    Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other.
    Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this.
    Teufel
  6. Upvote
    Teufel reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's important to note that any intelligence breakthrough that led to knowing the when/where/elimination of important Russian assets would not be something you would dole out in penny packets. There would be too much of a risk that the opponent would be able to change operationally to counteract the advantage before the advantage was most useful. The best roll out would be all at once while he was under the most pressure...i.e. while trying to fend off a counter offensive. We won't know for a decade or more for certain but I don't think Prigozhin would expose himself that obviously given the tentative nature of his relationship to windows and gravity at the moment. 
  7. Upvote
    Teufel reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would not be in the least surprised if Prigozhin was feeding info to ZSU. A key metric will be who succeeds the snotted HVTs.
    If we start hearing of those units being lead by Wagner sympathetisers that would be a significant development. 
    Also,  there is the mafia state angle,  as always -  **** with me and the cops (UKR) will get a text with two Long strings of numbers. Go on. Remember Col.  Dimitri?  Or as we call him now,  Col. Strawberry Jam? 
    The possibility of this would give any Russian commander pause,  if ordered to disarm/interfere with Wagner. 
    Win-Win for ZSU and Prig. Russian MoD is weakened,  Wagner remains inviolate and unblamed.  Battlefield failures are simply due to ****ty RUS MoD execution of the war in general and godawful opsec in particular. 
    That last point re comms is absolutely a factor in the current crop of decaps. 
  8. Like
    Teufel got a reaction from Billy Ringo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Friends,
    First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion.
    Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms.
    There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammunition dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but in my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. 
    Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we?
    Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians.
    To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later?
    Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month.
    Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. 
    All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. 
    Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”.
    Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts?
    Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). 
    As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD?
    Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other.
    Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this.
    Teufel
  9. Like
    Teufel got a reaction from Bearstronaut in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Friends,
    First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion.
    Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms.
    There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammunition dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but in my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. 
    Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we?
    Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians.
    To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later?
    Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month.
    Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. 
    All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. 
    Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”.
    Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts?
    Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). 
    As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD?
    Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other.
    Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this.
    Teufel
  10. Upvote
    Teufel got a reaction from Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Friends,
    First and foremost, shout out to all of you jarheads that actively keep such an interesting thread going for the past year and half! Been reading it almost daily since last summer and very impressed by your level of knowledge and understanding for modern (and historic) warfare. Not that would always agree with rationale behind some things but that’s the beauty of debate if allowed in pragmatic fashion.
    Finally, figured I’d join the fray and possibly offer some perspectives of my own to some discussions. Let us not dwell on introductions but just chalk my background to “Red Cross volunteer”. When and where is irrelevant at this point so let’s keep it at that. Nickname is not chosen to be offensive, former callsign given by brothers in arms.
    There is one thing that’s crossed my mind several times for the past weeks of precision strikes on several high value targets. Such as several high ranking HQ, large force’s concentrations, ammunition dumps, and the long list of many other such by Ukraine. Might be wrong, and got no proof of the following but in my mind the sudden losses of high level Russian commanders and soldiers is no coincidence. Neither is the timing of such. And it has nothing to do with the counter offensive itself. Nor is it my opinion a surge of highly improved partizan intel. And frankly, I do not believe that all of sudden Ukrainians agents are able provide real-time updates of whereabouts of high level Russian commanders. 
    Firstly, the nature of Russian C&C operations would make such intel difficult by lower level officers. Secondly, even if such information does reach Ukrainian from embedded Russian sources, they must somehow verify it before striking. Thirdly, the strikes obviously need to be timely not only in terms of exact target but also in terms of well, time. Don’t want our packages to be delivered too late, nor do we want to send them to the wrong address do we?
    Knowing beforehand that target A is going to be at point B with short notice doesn’t really help. You only get one chance to target B - when A is present. Making it less than trivial task to execute, unless the source of the intel is undeniably credible to the Ukrainians.
    To make long story short and skip to my point - Russian MoD has crossed a line with Prigozjin and this is is his elegantly executed pay-back. Can list plenty of reasons and examples of factors supporting my rationale. But just few quick ones, Adam Delimkhanov was very vocal against Progozjin - to the point of ridicule. The latter seemed to ignore the threatening and aggressive messages from the vocal Chechen, and said nothing in reply. What happened to Adam one week later?
    Major General Sergei Goryachev, allegedly dies in missile strike within days after. Just few days after several other HQ with high ranking officers being hit in Bakhmut directions. Add all the other precision strikes on similar targets occurring in short period of time. Anybody can say that Ukrainians waited for the offensive to start rolling before striking. Hard pressed to believe they would wait if they knew intelligence was solid before that. Which is also an aspect of why Prigozjin is all over this, let’s not bring up the MoD ultimatum of signing any and all PMC fighters end of this month.
    Wrote this post two weeks ago but didn’t come around to post it. In the meantime Prigozjin went silent all of a sudden with zero videos for about 7-10 days. Other than few short voice messages. The man reappears in video sitting down on table in front of Wagner flag trashing the MoD. Even goes as far as to accuse “the President of the Federation” swimming in blood/being knee deep in blood. 
    All these chains of events may very well me random events and two weeks ago I was hesitant to post this as unsure of my rationale. I am less so today. 
    Prigozjin has friends in high places within the MoD, themselves disgruntled. Surovikin being the best example, promoted to, and demoted for, the mission impossible in Kherson. Man with colorful past of illegal arms trading, human rights violations in Syria and Chechnya. It’s not far-fetched to assume there are yet others that like Surovikin are unhappy with their MoD colleagues. Driven by perhaps nothing else than patriotic sentiment, ref Dmitri Polyakov whose is quoted with the sole motivation being “loyalty to the Russian people and not the system I served under”.
    Can elaborate further on this as there are several more details not included in this post. Before I BS anybody by talking out of my behind, let’s see if these HQ strikes continue in the next following weeks [written two weeks ago]. Wouldn’t be surprised if that actually happens and Prigozjin keeps very low profile about the same. For all he knows, the Russian MoD is useless in all aspects of their C&C. It be a miracle would they all of sudden successfully protect intel of high level commanders and their whereabouts?
    Just like Prigozjin ignored the whole calamity about Adam Delimkhanov, restrains himself from replying to aggressive comments from the Chechens. Instead, the man gets Storm Shadow missile served to him on a platter. Again, got no proof and sheer speculation so might be completely off target here. But despite lack of solid evidence of above speculation give me a pass on “negative law of evidence”. Meaning - if can’t prove that Prigozjin has nothing to do with this, then there the possibility that he is involved(?). 
    As the saying goes, the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the World he doesn’t exist. In plain English, how could the loudest of all Russian patriots possibly want to hurt Russia? And how could he do such damage by providing Ukraine with intelligence from the very top of the MoD?
    Maybe because his sole motivation is the loyalty to the Russian people, and his own personal gains. One doesn’t need to contradict the other.
    Too long post but bear with me! Happy to hear you input friends and your informed thoughts on this.
    Teufel
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