FancyCat

lede is buried a little, im way more concerned about French opposition to purchasing artillery shells from outside EU for Ukraine, France has dropped that insistence. https://www.ft.com/content/83b8a80d-ab22-47fc-bbbb-6b1fd9df68ba

Not worried about losses, things get lost, even if far beyond the front. Question is, is the West prepared to replace it? Also why is Scholz a idiot, always taking positions that just make it silly when he finally folds.

was under impression hes a not reliable source.

From the NYT, gift article link. On cooperation between Ukraine and the CIA. Chock full of interesting tidbits, too much to quote, but I found these to be of interest to me. I'm unsure why Ukraine wanted to inform the world of 12 secret listening posts on the border, and that one directly sits on the ashes of a burned out one, but hey, i guess they know how to keep things secret... Budanov got CIA training, CIA officers stayed in country during the 2022 initial invasion, Budanov personally led a operation into Crimea that was publicly exposed, i think this BBC article talks about it in 2016: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37037401 Odesa was planned to be taken, bad weather stopped the operation.

So speaking of Ukraine's options for threatening Russia, it's interesting to note that attacks on Russian infrastructure, cities dealing with drones, no longer seem to be front page news. (Do they occur still?) Couple that with continued Russian anti-war passivity on the home front, I think GUR is gonna keep hitting Russia proper and ramping up attacks on industry. I recall the risks mentioned of course being that Russians might lean more towards supporting Putin but I think it's high time that notion is not as emphasized. While of course emphasizing hardship can backfire, it is important to note that most anti-war sentiment was generated by hardship, whether conscription, or the heating crisis recently. Sadly this means putting pressure on the Russian civilian via striking Russian export industry and money making ventures to sap the state's ability to manage the economy and minimize effects on civilians. It's also notable that oil and gas worldwide cost has not significantly gone up, despite geopolitics in the Middle East heating up. So the threat to the west in the form of increasing energy costs, seems to be fading.

Maybe the election is the issue? Sure not really opposition exists...(,) Anymore.

The books UKR SOF could write, oof. Hopefully whatever entity took the A-50 makes it to see another day.

Attempted coup with big show of power to dissuade those "azov" elements in the military and civil society from fighting back. Would explain why we saw dress uniforms, massive bombardments, massive armored columns and police units attempting to enter Ukraine. The picture we have of Russian intelligence on Ukraine indicates they really believed it was a rotten structure ready to collapse at the first bang and that Putin and Co were deluded enough to ignore warning signs and detractors.

Every western armor maker should be patting themselves on the back for the fact that Ukrainian tankers want more of their stuff for the fact that their survivability increases. We sent 31 M1s to Ukraine, we should send the Marine Corps' M1s to Ukraine. Iraq got 120 M1s!

i think Russia is focusing on offensives that grind down its ability to wage war, for little strategic gain in lieu for political goals. Key is to not let the political goals of these offensives succeed, which is cutting off Western aid to Ukraine. If these reports of Russian fighters dropping out the sky continue, definitely speaks to the need for Russia to keep offensive operations going.

Silly thing to suggest that Ukraine's PR revealed the location of their offensive when this forum was settling on that being the quickest most decisive action Ukraine could take. In short, it was exceedingly obvious that Russia needed to shore up it's defenses in the Kherson direction. Ukraine's PR has been focused on getting Western aid and equipment. If there's any blame to go, certainly I remain exceedingly pissed that we have thousands of Bradleys and have only given 200 to Ukraine.

Well at least we know there's more than a hint of truth to Russian losses from Murz, if he couldn't be talked out of issuing a correction or apology or some sort to rebuke his losses assertion.

As for bleak moments, well to note 1942 and 1943 for the Allies. For China, it was 8 years of war. Tho it’s hard to make comparisons, if these reports of Russian casualties are true, I’m reminded of Germany’s focus on offensives on the Eastern Front after Stalingrad, where instead of moving to the defensive, Germany exhausted itself attempting to regain strategic initiative. Oh sure, Germany replaced some of its manpower and equipment but certainly had they gone to the defense, they might have held on longer in the East. and good points made about the lack of a counterattack, especially with western equipment. As long as Ukraine conserves manpower, equipment, they can sacrifice towns that have been on the frontline for years that are nothing more than rubble.

Need I remind all Putin has desires for the restoration of Imperial Russia and that Ukraine is essential to further ambitions? If Ukraine falls, the risk to NATO and EU only increases. And sure, full out war would result in a wipeout, but Russia specializes in hybrid warfare.

Why not both? Ukraine needs shells now, no matter the source. The fact that U.S aid is drying up, including U.S placed orders for artillery shells worldwide only underscores that Europe needs to step in and provide the funding for all sources of artillery shells to Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/fear-and-loathing-in-munich/ A reminder for all America's uselessness, Europe remains a close competitor.

Gah, imagine being Taiwan or South Korea or Japan or Vietnam and watching this absolute ****show. Or Europe. How the hell can any state that relies on American military deterrent be pleased that the Arsenal of Democracy is apparently slumbering? Shameful. We have thousands of Bradleys piled in storage and we have sent according to wiki, about 200? It was acceptable to say at the beginning, "Ukraine needs to get the logistical pipeline set up" before shipping more, what the hell is the excuse now? This is bull****, expecting Ukraine to conduct offensives with what is virtually hand me downs and a sprinkling of equipment. (Sure, sure artillery shells)(humbug) How is Taiwan supposed to be feeling good about facing the world's manufacturing giant and then comparing to this? This was supposed to be America's time to shine, to illustrate that time is indeed on our side, instead Xi and Putin are gambling time is on their side and our inability is costing the lives of Ukrainians.

Sure, tho these oil refinery attacks....

What do we know about these Ukrainian naval drones? I mean sure, Ukraine is a plunky underdog, but no way under technological, and on that note, some of it has been previously U.S/U.K given drones no? That said, something to be said about Russian inability to close off Odesa. I mean sure, shrug off one ship down, 2 down, but combine 3 down with Ukraine touting that Black Sea trade is near pre-war levels and one instead of applauding Russian generosity in allowing trade, must ask if Russia despite supposedly being advanced, cannot even strike a container ship hugging the coastline while Ukraine strikes it's warships hugging Crimea. (All Russia needs to do is strike one and civilian shipping will be scared off again) As always, reality and perception are vital and influence one another. Russia, in forcing these costly advances in Adiivka, understands this all too well, in pursuing Western cutoff of aid, and so their inability to cut off the Black Sea trade likely is less generosity and more lack of ability.

Russian bot armies, funding, and connections with Trump campaign officials would suggest more that Trump will be indebted to Putin if he wins 2024 and while he is a terrible debtor, we are certainly past rapprochement and into deal making territory.

Well that’s where Putin’s long winded interview comes in, which is a framing shifting narrative to slowly move the American voter away from seeing NATO as an inherent structure of American dominance to one of American overextension and waste in Russian sphere of influence. Trump’s framing of the 2% gdp target is just one part of it. He’s long voiced disappointment and discontent with insufficient “protection money” attained from Europe. (At the end of the day, he has shown all the hallmarks of a dictator who believes the government serves at his word and its resources his to allocate and enjoy)I think this is actually something Putin with his mafia like structure of Russian government would be intimately familiar with and able to exploit and manage vs Trump. We have seen how this occurred via Ukraine, Trump seeking political dirt on Biden and leveraging aid to Ukraine for it.

There are other deficiencies in the military that need working on, including mobilization, training, logistics that maybe Zeluzhny might have not been able to handle after 2 years of service that required his replacement.

So I see your point, but I question this notion that the continuity of the German people in the present (vs being destroyed), or that some sort of successor state of the German Reich existing today represents anything but total defeat of Nazi Germany, considering the goals of the war, and the goals of the state, because at least for the people leading the country, and the opinions of those living in it in the past, would probably see it as only total defeat, if shown the current reality. You bring up Hitler from the dead, or Himmler or probably a good chunk of those believing in the Nazi ideology and detail the present day, I'm sure they would consider their loss as total defeat. Same probably would apply to the Southern elite.

Something to reinforce, Russia is winning the war of attrition as far as we can tell at this time. Something to keep in mind for Ukraine, is the real possibility as shown of Western resolve, arms, aid just not being sufficiently being enough or leveraged by the West for Ukraine, so sure, Ukraine can turtle and go defensive, but the real issue exists that Russia feels that it can grind down Ukraine, and more importantly, if Ukraine relies on defensive strategy, Putin, can both choose to make advances where needed, make ceasefires and peace negotiations with the eye of merely preparing for another resumption of warfare. At this point, relying on Russia being exhausted by war to come to the peace table, is probably not the right assumption to focus on. I think the play is to emphasize that Russia will always seek to retake what it rightfully sees as theirs. Basically inform the Western public that the Russian capacity to wage war for Ukraine is infinite or infinitely enough that the West should cut their support or force a peace that gives Russia what it wants mostly. Including the ability to conquer it in due time without NATO needing to intervene, or lose too much face in not supporting Ukraine in the future. Current pro-Kremlin Western mouthpieces are continuing to spout stuff that encourages the West to concede for peace terms that basically tilt Ukraine into Russian orbit. At the risk of opening prior Pandora's boxes on this thread, the goal for the West and Ukraine at the minimum for a "victory" is NATO membership of unoccupied Ukraine into NATO. Anything less is a loss, anything less increases the risk of Russia feeling like it can challenge NATO through hybrid warfare, it will bring untold economic and social damage to Ukraine to say the least, and give worldwide a enduring impression of the inability of the West to engage in long term conflict.